A-Infos (en) France, Alternative Libertaire AL October - international, Syria: In the heart of the imperialist melee (fr, it, pt) [machine translation]

Syrian civil war has become, for most part, the scene of an indirect confrontation between 
foreign powers. Russia, USA, Iran, Turkey, France, oil monarchies ... Who wants what? And 
Rojava in? decryption and test hypotheses. ---- For the third time this year, Syria has 
seen the failure in September of attempted truce sponsored by Russia and the United 
States. Failure mainly due to the multiplication, in the civil war, armed forces with 
conflicting objectives, shifting alliances with uncertain sponsorships. Difficult to 
enforce a cease-fire under these conditions. More than ever, however, Moscow and 
Washington appear to be the duo without which nothing can be done in Syria. To the great 
annoyance of others ingérentes powers - Iran, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia ... - kept away 
from Russian-American councils, or invited to unnecessary multilateral conferences, such 
as Lausanne October 15[1].

This is mainly because of foreign intervention that the 2011 revolution erupted, in 2012, 
into civil war. In this melee of imperialism, each pursues objectives, makes paris, tests 
its partners and competitors ... Meanwhile, the civilian population hostage to this cruel 
game, fleeing by the thousands.

What does Russia

Above all, Moscow wants to preserve Syria into its orbit. This country, ally since 1971, 
hosts the only relay of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean Tartous. But keep Syria 
does not necessarily mean keeping Assad. After five years of massacres, everyone knows 
that the dictator will never again have the authority to rule over the whole country. The 
ideal would be to get negotiations and a compromise between Assad and the opposition not 
jihadist. Then a transition that would last a year or two, to a national unity government 
sponsored by Moscow ... and stripped of undermining Assad. We imagine very well end his 
days in comfortable exile in Russia or Iran. This compromise would isolate and break up 
the jihadists strengths - Daech and Fatah al Cham front (ex-front Al Nosra, linked to Al 
Qaeda) - who thrive on the chaos.

cc Russian Presidential Press and Information Office

But there are several obstacles to this scenario: first, Assad may prove stubborn and to 
resist his ouster, sabotage a possible peace process; secondly, cities and rebel brigades 
who endured the last five years the explosive barrels and chemical attack, hardly budge on 
the starting Assad; third, in the field (including Aleppo) much of the rebel brigades need 
to take, the alliance with Fatah al Cham front, and they are not ready to give it up for 
very hypothetical peace negotiations.

What would the United States

Washington has never made the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad a priority. When François 
Hollande wanted to attack Damascus in September 2013 Obama refused to follow him. Since 
summer 2014, is even clearer: the priority is the destruction of the Islamic State and, to 
a lesser extent, that of Fatah al-Sham. To that extent, the Russian scenario of a 
transition including Assad is accepted by the United States since March 2015.

cc US Navy photo - United States Department of Defense

The obstacles to this scenario are however such that in diplomatic circles-uniens states, 
another possibility is sometimes mentioned: the country's partition into a Kurdish, a 
"Arabistan" and "Alaouistan" - three ethno-religious entities each would, of necessity, 
the protectorate of a foreign power. This scenario however is so dangerous - it would 
initiate a general questioning of the borders in the Middle East - no neighbor wants it. 
Foil to the word of "partition" Americans prefer therefore that of "federalization"[2]- a 
warped federalism as subject to an imperialist strategy.

It wants Turkey

In Ankara, the overthrow of Assad is no longer a priority, and the partition of the 
country - which would lead to an autonomous Kurdistan - is excluded. Since the battle of 
Ayn al-Arab, the end of 2014, the main concern is for Erdogan to curb the Kurdish dissent 
in Turkey, and hinder the emergence of Rojava. It is for this purpose with the green light 
from Moscow and Washington, the Turkish army invaded a portion of Syrian territory to stem 
the Kurdish militias in the east of the Euphrates.

The "buffer zone" under its control now serves as a rear base for rebels subsidized by 
Ankara and continues to house the support channels to Daech[3].

DC Voice of America News: Henry Ridgwell
Refugee camps could also be implemented[4]. These refugees that Turkey retains on its soil 
are the best way to pressure the European Union.

By dint of being singled out as the main support Daech Erdogan nevertheless had to 
distance Daech but avoid a complete break for fear of reprisals on Turkish soil, where the 
jihadist networks are present.

What Iran wants

Priority Tehran is both maintaining the current Syrian regime, its only ally in the Arab 
world to Saudi Arabia, and the destruction of Daech. Without Syria maintained in the 
integrity of its borders, Iran would lose its territorial junction with the chief agent in 
the region, the Lebanese Hezbollah. And Daech which considers heretics worthy of death, 
directly threatens the Shiite populations in Iraq and Alawites in Syria, which Tehran 
claims to be the protector. Thousands of Iranian troops and Shiite militiamen paid by 
Tehran are deployed in Iraq and Syria to cope.

That want to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar

The oil monarchies, which reject any partition of the country, would the departure of 
Assad and have vexed the reluctance of Washington on this. In financing and arming rebel 
forces, including Fatah al Cham forehead, they nevertheless exert pressure on the US ally.

Between 2011 and 2013, of pious donations from businessmen and Gulf princes also fueled 
Daech[5], before the government will put a stop - too late, the monster had grown in 
stature and acquired the means to self-financing.

Saudi Arabia fears now jihadist attacks on its soil - three were perpetrated in July. 
Syria and Yemen are the main theaters of indirect war between the Sunni and Shiite Iran 
block but less resolved, the oil monarchies have not yet dared to commit ground troops.

That want France, Britain, Belgium ...

The priority of Paris, Brussels and London is to stem the flow of refugees and eradicate 
Daech the starting Assad is clearly receded into the background. From the beginning of the 
Civil War, the French and British services have actively supported the armed opposition. 
The Franco-British interventionism culminated in September 2013 with the preparation - 
aborted - an attack against Damascus.

Then the focus shifted on Daech, first in Iraq, then Syria. Chammal The operation, 
conducted by the French army, is ramping up, with considerable air forces - including the 
aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle - far ahead of other EU states engaged in the coalition 
(Country -Bas, Belgium, United Kingdom, Denmark).

What hope the Kurdish left

The priority of the Syrian PYD is to consolidate the autonomy of Rojava, taking full 
advantage of the leeway given to it by events: weakening of Damascus, material aid from 
Washington and Moscow, Tehran neutrality, benevolence of Paris and London. Since October 
2015, YPG-YPJ militias formed with Syriac and Arabic brigades, Syrian Democratic Forces 
(SDS). In addition to its military capabilities, the alternative policy carried by the 
Kurdish left is a real vis-à-vis asset of local people and its international supporters.

In late August, when the Turkish intervention in Syria, Russians and Americans have 
publicly distanced themselves from the SDS[6]... then continued to help without excessive 
discretion[7]. This attitude is probably to hold a candle to both Kurds and Kurdish 
Erdogan ... The left has not been surprised by the duplicity of its occasional allies; 
this is in any case a useful reminder of the need for it to remain entirely independent in 
its objectives, which comes as using it accepts.

Feneeq News

The political difficulty for activists and Kurdish activists is to claim a federalization 
of Syria without being considered "unpatriotic" harbingers of a partition of the country. 
The PYD therefore always takes care to specify that its proposed "democratic 
confederalism" is consistent with the preservation of a united Syria. Turkey, however, 
will do everything to prevent this scenario, and Westerners will not want to upset Ankara 
on this point; secondly, there is a consensus between Assad and his opposition to exclude 
the PYD peace negotiations, and Moscow and Tehran will not force his hand on this.

What would the regime in Damascus

Partition or maintaining the integrity of the country, what interests the regime is 
primarily securing the Alaouistan. And for Assad and his clan, securing his power or, 
failing that, of his property. But the "reconquest" claimed the entire territory seems 
totally unrealistic. Not taking more than the will of Moscow and Tehran, the regime has a 
narrow margin of maneuver.

Guillaume Davranche (AL Montreuil), with Cem Akbalik (Kurdish libertarian socialist)

[1]"The Lausanne meeting on Syria ends without clash but advanced" , Letemps.ch, October 
15, 2016

[2]Henry Kissinger, "A Path Out of the Middle East Collapse" , Wall Street Journal, 
October 16, 2015.

[3]Until then, Washington and Moscow opposed a Turkish intervention. Why have endorsed in 
August 2016? In exchange for stopping the Turkish support to Daech? In exchange for an 
easing to Bashar?

[4]Fehim Tastekin, "  Is Turkey falling into Syrian icts own trap?  " Al Monitor, 
September 1, 2016.

[5]The Saudi and Qatari States themselves been involved in the funding? It is in private's 
assertion the US State Department in August 2014 in an email from Hillary Clinton unveiled 
by Wikileaks.

[6]"Remarks With Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at a Press Availability", Geneva, 
26 August 2016 ( on the website of the US State Department ).

[7]"Turkey: Erdogan accuses Washington of having delivered weapons to the Syrian Kurds' 
Lesoir.be, September 23, 2016

http://www.alternativelibertaire.org/?Syrie-Au-coeur-de-la-melee
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