For Hogan, a new kind of Trump problem

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A controversial president-elect not supported by Gov. Larry Hogan could open a door for Democrats seeking to oust the first-term governor.

Hogan enters a re-election campaign that could be affected by Donald Trump. Hogan refused to endorse or even vote for the Republican nominee, instead choosing to vote for his own father. Trump’s victory, however, coupled with Republican control of the federal legislative branch, could provide a new opportunity for Democrats who have so far struggled to find an issue on which to challenge Hogan.

“Had Hillary Clinton won, it would have been a stabilizing force,” said Mileah Kromer, a political science professor at Goucher College and director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “Having Trump now introduces a lot of unknowns. We don’t know how he is going to govern. It will likely motivate Democrats in Maryland to get Hogan out of office.”

Additionally, Kromer noted, the mid-term elections, which come at the same time as Hogan’s re-election bid, traditionally go against the party in power and could filter down to Maryland’s gubernatorial race.

Some Republicans say they have quietly recognized over the last several months the potential hurdles Trump could pose to electing the first two-term Republican governor since Theodore McKeldin.

“There are Democrats who are now going to see an opportunity now that wasn’t there before (Tuesday) night,” said Don Murphy, a former Republican state legislator from Baltimore County who now lobbies in Washington on marijuana legalization issues. “We’ve been thinking this for a long, long time.”

Murphy, who was one of 38 Maryland delegates to the Republican National Convention bound to Trump, took to his Facebook page Tuesday night and declared the election “not a great night for the governor.”

“I didn’t say it was over (for Hogan),” Murphy cautioned. “I just said it wasn’t a great night for the Maryland Republican governor.”

And other political observers agree.

“Trump is now the face of the Republican party, the leader of the party,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. “The governor will be asked repeatedly if he agrees with Trump’s policies. He runs the risk of making some Democrats angry if he doesn’t break with Trump or anger some Republicans because he did break with Trump.”

Making Republicans angry

In the end, Hogan may find it easier to anger some Republicans because they are more likely to forgive the governor for the 2018 election.

“These are outliers,” Kromer said of Republicans who have expressed disappointment with Hogan over his decision to not endorse or vote for Trump and who feel he has not eased restrictions on firearms. I just don’t see the strategic advantage of staying home or not voting for him. I don’t see what goal that would accomplish”

Two years out from the 2018 election, Hogan, a first-term Republican governor with an envious approval rating of 71 percent, appears to be a serious challenge to Democrats seeking to unseat him.

Trump, a controversial candidate before he became president-elect, could open a door, according to Laslo Boyd, a political observer who served in the administration of Democratic former Gov. William Donald Schaefer.

“Polls can go up and down,” said Boyd, a former columnist for The Daily Record. “You’ve got to have an opponent to beat him and some issues to put him on the record to run against him on.”

Hogan will likely face questions from reporters on Trump decisions and policies. And the focus on a federal government controlled at every level by Republicans less than an hour from Annapolis could also provide Democrats in Maryland with motivation and the opportunity to help voters conflate Trump with the governor.

Democrats have yet to coalesce behind a champion, as they did with Martin O’Malley early in Gov. Robert Ehrlich’s term.

Hogan potentially faces challenges from Rushern Baker III and Kevin Kamenetz, the county executives of Prince George’s and Baltimore counties, respectively, and from Rep. John Delaney.

Boyd said Hillary Clinton’s defeat now opens the possibility that U.S. Department of Labor Secretary Tom Perez, a former Montgomery County councilman who was thought to be in line for the U.S. Attorney General’s position in a Clinton administration, could also challenge Hogan.

None have yet emerged yet as a frontrunner.

‘In a daze’

The party has also struggled to push Hogan to take positions on issues on which they can use to build a record to run against.

“I think right now Democrats generally are kind of in a daze,” Boyd said. “Hogan is so popular despite not having much of a track record. They seem to be at a loss and lack a clear strategy to make (Hogan) make difficult choices and create a record to run against.”

Additionally, Hogan has proven himself to be a disciplined political tactician adept at using social media, capable of staying on message, and side-stepping issues he wishes to ignore, such as guns and abortion during the 2014 governor’s race and Trump over the last year.

The next two years could test that ability.

“It’s going to be two years of seeing how well (Hogan) can dance,” Eberly said.

An earlier version of this story misidentified the governor for whom Laslo Boyd worked. Boyd worked for William Donald Schaefer.