FBI's Hillary Clinton clearance may be too late

The grey cloud over Hillary Clinton has not lifted and voters know it.
The grey cloud over Hillary Clinton has not lifted and voters know it. AP

The re-clearing of Hillary Clinton by the Federal Bureau of Investigation on the cusp of the presidential election is marginally positive for the Democrat, but most of the damage inflicted by James Comey's dubious intervention nine days earlier is irreversible.

Nearly one-third of Americans have voted early and the vast majority of people have made up their minds who they will vote for on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST).

Financial markets rallied on the pro-Clinton news, though some of the bounce is probably tied to her earlier stabilisation in polls over the weekend.

The earlier October surprise by the FBI announcing 11 days before the election it was examining emails connected to the past Clinton investigation may not cost her the election.

If Clinton somehow narrowly loses, the Democratic knives will be sharpened for FBI director James Comey.
If Clinton somehow narrowly loses, the Democratic knives will be sharpened for FBI director James Comey. Cliff Owen

She enters the final day of campaigning seemingly on path to clinch at least 270 electoral college votes required to win the White House.

But the FBI intervention slashed the prospect of a landslide Democratic win and opened the door to a potential Trump boilover.

If Clinton somehow narrowly loses, the Democratic knives will be sharpened for Comey.

He reshaped the election.

After Comey's vague letter to Congress on October 26, Clinton's average national poll lead plunged from 5.6 points to as little as 1.3 points.

National Polls Clinton v Trump
National Polls Clinton v Trump Real Clear Politics

Crucially, the revelation appeared to mobilise wavering Republican voters unsure whether they could get aboard the Trump train.

The FBI intrusion likely boosted the chances of Republicans to retain control of Congress by confirming in the minds of conservative voters that Clinton is dishonest, shady and – in the eyes of her harshest critics – corrupt.

Unhelpfully for Clinton, American media and Donald Trump are still talking about her emails, robbing the Democratic nominee of valuable airtime to press her final message and taking the spotlight off Trump's flaws.

After the FBI's on-again off-again probe connected to Clinton's use of a private email server was shelved late on Sunday in the US, Trump bellowed that the "investigations into her crimes will go on for a long, long time."

"Right now she is being protected by a rigged system," Trump said.

"You can't review 650,000 emails in eight days."

Many Trump supporters will believe it.

New emails crisis

In July, after a year-long investigation into Clinton's handling of classified information on a private email system as secretary of state, Comey recommended she not be charged despite being "extremely careless".

In late October, the FBI boss rocked the US election, telling Congress the bureau had uncovered new emails "pertinent" to the lapsed Clinton investigation.

Ambiguously, Comey added that "we don't know the significance of this newly discovered collection of emails; I don't want to create a misleading impression."

On Sunday, he said in a letter that FBI agents had worked around the clock to review all the recently uncovered emails to and from Clinton, with many reportedly being personal messages and duplicates of correspondence previously reviewed.

"Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton," Mr Comey wrote.

The emails were found on a laptop computer sometimes used by top Clinton adviser Huma Abedin, whose estranged husband Anthony Weiner was under investigation for sending sexual messages to a 15-year old girl.

Post the election, the FBI will require a serious shake up.

If she becomes president, Clinton cannot sack Comey due to a watertight 10-year appointment.

Of course he could choose to fall on his own sword, especially as many Democrats are calling for his scalp.

Error of judgment

Few independent observers believe Comey, a former registered Republican appointed by Democratic President Barack Obama, intended to be political.

But many think it was a grave error of professional judgment to, in effect, blow the whistle on a presidential candidate without fully formed information or incriminating evidence.

A bigger question is the internal culture of the bureau.

Over the past week, anonymous agents have been leaking against Clinton to the media.

Fox News reported last week an FBI source saying she would be charged after the election, before clarifying that the story was wrong.

If there is a president Clinton, Republicans will renew their push for fresh investigation into potential conflicts of interest at her family charity, the Clinton Foundation.

Hardline Republicans are already talking up the idea of impeachment if Clinton wins on Tuesday.

The grey cloud over Clinton has not lifted and voters know it.