Ewin Hannan | July 19, 2008
SECRET ALP polling of swinging voters showed the Coalition's best chance of winning the last federal election was to switch to Peter Costello in 2006.
Previously undisclosed research commissioned by ALP headquarters found that, while voters took issue with Mr Costello's perceived personality traits, others found him more "in touch" and "reasonable" than John Howard.
The research warned that if the then treasurer was given the freedom to establish his own profile as leader, he could make up ground quickly on Labor, neutralising the generational-change strategy that Kevin Rudd would use against Mr Howard at the election last year.
Details of the research, which contradicts other polls that found Mr Costello was an unpopular alternative to Mr Howard, are disclosed in Inside Kevin 07, a new book by Christine Jackman, asenior writer with The Weekend Australian.
Liberal Party sources said yesterday the Coalition's own research was similar to the ALP findings, but Liberal strategists did not want them canvassed among MPs for fear of destabilising Mr Howard.
"It was known by both sides, but neither had the motivation to say it," one Liberal source said.
The findings have the potential to renew speculation that Mr Costello is the best leadership option for the Liberal Party against Mr Rudd at the next election.
Mr Costello, who refused to comment yesterday, is completing a book, which is due out in October. He is expected to make his political intentions clear at that time.
The ALP polling on Mr Costello was conducted in October 2006, just months after he publicly fell out with Mr Howard over the alleged deal to hand over the Liberal leadership to the treasurer.
ALP national secretary Tim Gartrell asked focus group researcher Tony Mitchelmore to test swinging voters' reaction to Mr Costello.
In his report, Peter Costello - Opportunity or Threat?, Mr Mitchelmore wrote "on the surface there are real personality issues", with some participants using words such as weasel, snide, smug and creep to describe Mr Costello.
But other voters disagreed, and were more favourably disposed to the then treasurer.
"Below the surface there are acknowledged strengths," Mr Mitchelmore wrote.
Core among them was Mr Costello's "strong economic credibility".
"With free rein to establish his profile as leader, rather than as merely an adjunct to Howard, Costello could make ground quickly, and even enjoy 'an enhanced honeymoon' if voters began to see him as a leader who offered the economic stability of the Howard years, without some of the Prime Minister's perceived 1950s stuffiness," the book quotes the research as saying.
Mr Mitchelmore's warning, according to the book, "haunted" Mr Gartrell for months, even after Labor replaced Kim Beazley with Mr Rudd in December 2006.
With just a six-week age difference between Mr Rudd and Mr Costello, Mr Gartrell knew a "Costello leadership would neutralise much of the potency of the 'Future versus the Past' frame that Labor HQ had developed, particularly if Mr Costello was given the time to promote his own future agenda".
According to Newspoll, Mr Costello's standing with voters in 2006 fluctuated. Prior to the eruption of leadership tensions with Mr Howard, Mr Costello had a lead over Mr Beazley.
In April 2006, 44 per cent of voters preferred Mr Costello compared with 37 per cent for Mr Beazley. However, three months later 44 per cent preferred Mr Beazley against 33per cent for Mr Costello.A number of Liberals speculated yesterday that voters might have warmed to Mr Costello as leader if he had been given enough time to broaden his appeal beyond his economic credentials.
"The Labor Party knew this and so did the Liberal pollsters," one Liberal figure said.
"The Labor Party didn't want to say it because they didn't want to encourage a leadership change and the Liberals didn't want to put it out there because they thought it would undermine Howard."
