If Malcolm Turnbull could resolve his Tony Abbott problem by recalling him to cabinet, he would. Alas, it is rarely that simple.
Abbott's determination to stay beyond this year's election was always a sleeper. But his decision to ratchet up public pressure for a spot in the executive represents the single sharpest risk to the government between now and 2019 – an existential threat that if mishandled could cause an implosion.
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Turnbull v Abbott: The feud
After the PM and former PM contradicted each other in Parliament, one government MP has tried to water down the feud saying they're actually 'old friends'. Courtesy Channel 9.
Exaggeration? Hardly. We've seen this film before. Australia remembers a toxic leadership dynamic bearing uncanny similarities to this. Such was the volatility of that tawdry entanglement that old certainties vaporised.
Kevin Rudd, hero of Labor's 2007 triumph, never imagined as late as the winter of 2010 that he would not even make it to the election due that year.
And Julia Gillard believed Rudd's return was unthinkable and that she would contest the 2013 poll.
The parallels with today are obvious. Yet Rudd's singular advantage over Abbott – if we are making direct comparisons – was his ongoing popularity in the wider electorate. Voters had never endorsed Rudd's removal, and as Gillard's government listed – hurried along by Rudd's white-anting – many voters still favoured him.
Abbott's departure, in contrast, was welcomed by voters. Thus, he cannot offer his colleagues that most alluring incentive: a certain recovery in the polls. But while this difference should not be played down, remember also that Abbott did not need to be popular in 2013 when he won the general election in a landslide.
Also, Turnbull's popularity has been in freefall throughout this year.
The unsettling lesson of 2010-13 is that, in contemporary politics, things change – the once unthinkable can quickly come to pass.
So, what should Turnbull do? Ignore Abbott's taunts or sue for peace by recalling him to the top table, as Gillard had first tried (albeit unsuccessfully) with Rudd?
Importantly, Abbott has now seized the initiative. The fact he told a friendly columnist, Catherine McGregor, that he wants Indigenous Affairs is significant. Abbott could have approached Turnbull privately, but instead has made it public, even naming his portfolio. That's provocative.
More telling again was McGregor's interpretation that, "pragmatically", Abbott would be more of a team player inside the Turnbull cabinet – as stark an admission of his current misbehaviour as you will see.
The unsettling lesson of 2010-13 is that, in politics nowadays, anything can happen
It betrayed the harder message within Abbott's promise of reconciliation: promote me now, or keep on paying.
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