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Former McCain campaign chief strategist Steve Schmidt joined a MSNBC panel on Monday and discussed the importance of Michiganto the 2016 election.
"I think this is the second of four really consequential global elections, the next will be the French and the German," Schmidt explained. He noted how there is a shift in the global political climate from one where people are split down the middle as right-leaning and left-leaning, to one based on who has benefited or not from globalisation.
"I think that's going to be the new fault line in American politics," Schmidt said. "And the voters, the Bernie Sanders voter and the Trump voter — like fishnetting, the fish can swing through the netting from left to right very, very easily."
Schmidt touched on Silicon Valley, otherwise known as a hub of tech start-ups and entrepreneurship. "Let's look at the Silicon Valley wing of the Democratic party and be clear about the partisan nature of all of these companies," Schmidt started.
"The number one job for not college educated white men in America is driving something somewhere. So when we talk about an era now of driverless trucks, driverless cars, where do those jobs go? Where's that displacement?" Schmidt continued.
He added, "We have these arguments about minimum wage — $12, $15. We're 18 months away in this country from a robot in the window at the McDonalds handing you your cheeseburger."
We're not having conversations about the "profound displacements that are going to come to what's left of the high paying blue-collar jobs in this country," Schmidt said.
![US maufacturing jobs versus the rise of the robots.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/l/q/c/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskls6.png/1478578951408.jpg)
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The world economy is in decent shape on the eve of the US elections, Capital Economics claims.
The firm's senior global economist Andrew Kenningham estimates that world GDP growth accelerated a bit further in the third quarter of this year, to just over 3.0 per cent on an annualised basis.
"This was largely due to much faster growth in the US, which in turn was a result of a spike in exports, and continued rapid growth in China."
Kenningham points out that Markit's global composite PMI reached an eleven-month high in October and on past form is consistent with solid global growth, of over 3 per cent. The rise was largely driven by a jump in the reading for advanced economies.
But global growth may slow a bit in the fourth quarter as the US rebound fades, he says.
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Shares in troubled online retailer Surfstitch have been halted from trading while the company considers another approach from spurned suitor Crown Financial.
After building up a 10.4 per cent stake over the last few months, Crown Financial lobbed a $55.4 million non-binding takeover offer for the embattled retailer last week.
The proposal was rejected by the Surfstitch board because it did not deliver an appropriate premium for control and was highly conditional.
Surfstitch is also being sued by Coastalwatch, a company linked to Crown Financial, over a failed content deal negotiated by Surfstitch's co-founder and former chief executive Justin Cameron.
Coastalwatch/Crown proposed buying Surfstitch for 20¢ a share, just above the 30-day volume weighted average price of 19¢. However, Surfstitch's board decided the bid was not in the best interests of shareholders.
Coastalwatch/Crown refuses to take no for an answer and has now gone public, releasing details of its offer to the media.
Surfstitch said the trading halt was necessary so the board could assess the letter and respond appropriately.
![Surfstitch shares have been halted amid the kerfuffle over a takeover offer.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/p/n/2/v/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskk61.png/1478577174389.jpg)
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The days of massive central bank stimulus are ending but that doesn't have to mean bad news for shares as global growth slowly picks up, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) says, while identifying five key investing themes for the next year.
It is likely that low rates, low growth and low returns will remain the order of the day.
However, GSAM expects shares to be the best of a bad lot and believes equities could deliver low-to-mid single-digit returns.
1. The fiscal boost
As governments prepare to take the growth reins, Goldman Sachs expects infrastructure projects to benefit from public funding.
"Initially, we think the "repairers" and "builders" of infrastructure will be the main beneficiaries, followed by "owners" of infrastructure over the longer term," wrote the analysts.
If governments are able to target their policies in such a way to stimulate growth, equities are likely to enjoy the benefits more than bonds, given the prospects for inflation.
"Banks, especially, could benefit as inflation is likely to prompt interest rate increases which will boost their margins," writes Goldman Sachs. "All forms of real assets such as infrastructure, real estate, timber, commodities and materials are also likely to benefit."
2. No need to stretch for yield
Investors have scoured the world hunting for yield as low interest rates flattened returns. As such, many investors currently own stocks for yield, and bonds for capital appreciation.
Goldman Sachs argues this paradoxical situation is unsustainable.
The most common complaint from equity investors is expensive prices attached to high-yielding stocks, in both the Australian market and overseas.
Goldman Sachs argues it's time investors looked beyond those high-yielding plays and that there are plenty of reasonably-valued equities to choose from, particularly when compared with credit.
"We find that companies whose yields fall into the second quintile tend to offer more attractive valuations, lower dividend payout ratios, better balance sheets and greater earnings growth prospects," wrote the analysts.
![Goldman Sachs Asset Management believes there are plenty of opportunities for equity investors.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/5/k/9/y/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskk0b.png/1478576437928.jpg)
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ANZ is the only one of the four majors to have recorded share price gains over the past 12 months, with investors struggling to find reasons to buy shares in CBA, NAB and Westpac amid talk of peaking profits and squeezed margins.
ANZ is making up for time lost pursuing a fruitless Asian strategy, and the market loves a turnaround story, although that enthusiasm has waned somewhat over the past month, which coincides with bank reporting season.
This chart tells the tale, although it does little to say whether the pessimism hanging over the sector is likely to continue.
If you include dividends over the past year the shareholder return will look better. At current prices, Westpac has a net yield of 6.3. per cent, CBA 5.9 per cent, ANZ 6.5 per cent, and NAB 7.6 per cent.
Bloomberg converts analysts' ratings to a number between 1 (the lowest recommendation, for example "strong sell") to 5 ("strong buy") and then takes the average for a consensus overview. On that basis, CBA is the least popular pick among brokers with a consensus rating of 2.9 (3 would be equivalent to a hold). Then NAB at 3.7, while Westpac and ANZ rate 3.9.
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China's October exports fell 7.3 per cent from a year earlier, while imports shrank 1.4 per cent, both declining more than expected.
That left the country with a trade surplus of $US49.06 billion (325.25 billion yuan) for the month, the General Administration of Customs said.
Analysts had expected October exports to have fallen 6 per cent from a year earlier, an improvement from a 10 per cent contraction in September but pointing to persistently sluggish global demand.
Imports were expected to have dropped 1 per cent, after falling 1.9 per cent in September. The trade surplus was forecast to have expanded to $US51.70 billion in October, versus September's $US41.99 billion.
China imported 80.8 million tonnes of iron ore in October, the lowest since February and down 13 per cent from the previous month, as steel mills curtailed output amid tightening profits and soaring costs. Compared with a year ago, shipments of the steelmaking ingredient were still up 7 per cent.
The numbers suggest that import volumes probably continued to hold up well on the back of recent signs that domestic demand has strengthened, said Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard.
"The ongoing cyclical rebound in China's economy should support imports for another quarter or two but is unlikely to last much longer given that the boost to growth from earlier policy easing is set to fade before long."
![Both imports and exports were weaker than expected.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/l/c/g/5/4/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gski75.png/1478574040268.jpg)
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In the hours after the president is elected, equity investors need to brace for volatility. What they shouldn't do is panic.
That's because regardless of how prices react immediately after the election, next-day moves in the S&P 500 Index are useless in telling what comes after. While the index swings an average 1.5 per cent the day after the vote, gains or losses over the first 24 hours predict the market's direction 12 months later less than half the time.
This matters because the compulsion to act in the vote's aftermath is often very strong -- stocks swing twice as violently as normal those days, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They plummeted 5 per cent just after Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008. But while nothing says Wednesday's reaction won't be a harbinger for the year, nothing says it will, either, and investors should think before doing anything rash.
"Trying to trade that is very difficult," said Thomas Melcher, the Philadelphia-based chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group. "Even if the market sells off, if you have any reasonable time horizon, that should be a buying opportunity. The dust will settle and people will conclude the economy is OK."
In the 22 elections going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has fallen 15 times the day after polls close, for an average loss of 1.8 pe rcent. Stocks reversed course and moved higher over the next 12 months in nine of those instances, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Nothing shows the unreliability of first-day signals more than the routs that accompanied victories by Obama, whose election in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis preceded a two-day plunge in which more than $US2 trillion of global share value was erased. It wasn't much better in 2012, when election day was followed by a two-day drop that swelled to 3.6 percent in the S&P 500, at the time the worst drop in a year.
Of course, Obama has been anything but bad for equities -- or at least, he hasn't gotten in their way. The S&P 500 has posted an average annual gain of 13.3 per cent since Nov. 4, 2008, better than nine of the previous 12 administrations. Data like that imply investors struggle to process the meaning of a new president just after elections, or infuse the winner with greater influence than they have.
![Market moves the day after an election predict the next 12 months' direction less than half the time.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/c/5/7/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskc79.png/1478572522404.jpg)
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Australia's home renovation market should strengthen over the next 12 months because housing "churn" is slowing down and more property owners are choosing to renovate rather than move, the managing director of paint maker Dulux Group says.
Patrick Houlihan said it was difficult to forecast whether residential real estate prices were at a peak in Sydney and Melbourne and only "time will tell" if they would move higher, but the renovation market was strong and likely to remain highly resilient even if the housing market was more subdued.
This should ensure continued resilience for Dulux, which has a market share of about 43 per cent in Australia's paint market, and also owns the Selleys range of handyman and sealant products, and the Yates garden products and fertiliser business.
Each of those businesses on an individual basis produced record profits in the 12 months ended September 30, 2016 despite the volatile market conditions in the past few months as the failed Masters hardware chain being cut loose by Woolworths, conducted a fire sale of its own stock.
Houlihan said the home renovation segments represent about 65 per cent of overall revenue across the group. Dulux expects net profit after for the 12 months ended September 30, 2017, would be higher than the $130.4 million in net profit after tax it announced today for the year ended September 30.
This 2015-16 result was up 15.6 per cent on a bottomline basis compared with the previous year, but when the impact of one-offs were stripped out of the previous year's results, the increase in net profit was a more modest 4.6 per cent.
Sales revenue crept ahead by 1.7 per cent to $1.72 billion for 2015-16, while earnings before interest and tax were up 14.7 per cent to $201.1 million.
The company lifted its final dividend to 12.5¢ from 11.5¢ at the same time a year ago. The fully franked final dividend will be paid on December 9.
Shares are down 1.1 per cent at $6.27.
![Dulux has reported a 15.6 per cent lift in annual profit to $130.4 million.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/i/e/l/z/p/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskg1x.png/1478570517835.jpg)
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Time for a lunchtime update, and the Clinton-in-the-clear rally that carried shares higher yesterday and overnight looks to have ebbed through today's trade, largely thanks to an underwhelming performance from the big banks.
The ASX 200 is up 8 points or 0.1 per cent at 5259, after trading up as much as 32 points following the strong lead from overseas. Our modest gains are being mimicked around the region, while the Aussie dollar has dropped around 0.3 US cents to 77 US cents. A surprisingly poor reading from NAB's monthly business sentiment and conditions survey wouldn't have helped.
CBA released its quarterly earnings update, which has been greeted by selling by investors, pushing the stock down 1 per cent. The other big banks are also lower after all climbing strongly yesterday: Westpac is off 1.2 per cent, NAB 0.3 per cent and ANZ 0.2 per cent.
A 2.6 per cent drop in Macquarie as it trades ex-dividend is weighing heavily.
Miners, however, are getting strong support which if anything has grown through the session as commodities such as iron ore, coal and copper extend their amazing run. BHP is up 2.8 per cent and Rio 1.9 per cent, Fortescue is 2.4 per cent higher and South 32 2.2 per cent. Little love for gold diggers, however, on waning enthusiasm for the precious metal as a Trump haven. Newcrest is off another 1.7 per cent today.
The biggest winner thus far is APN Outdoor Group, which has surged 17 per cent on a profit upgrade. REA Group has jumped 5.2 per cent following its annual earnings, but a less impressive profit result from News Corp may be weighing on sentiment around other media names such as Southern Cross, Nine, and Sky Network.
In other corporate news:
- Domino's Pizza just keeps getting hotter: climbing 6.5 per cent after Macquarie raised the stock to outperform. Yesterday Domino's upgraded its FY17 EBITDA growth target to around 30 per cent, from 25 per cent.
- Incitec Pivot drops 0.5 per cent as it says conditions are set to remain tough.
- Dulux Group is off 1 per cent despite announcing a 15 per cent lift in annual profits. More on that in a sec.
![Legends and losers at lunchtime.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/e/s/2/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskf6s.png/1478569120815.jpg)
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Analysts have some very mixed opinions on Westpac's results, which got an initial thumbs up from the market yesterday, despite slightly softer numbers and the reduction of its return-on-equity target to around 14 per cent, from 15 per cent.
Investors were cheered by the bank's decision to keep its dividend unchanged, shrugging off warnings that its payout ratio isn't sustainable.
While Bell Potter has raised the stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and Deutsche sticks with it's 'buy', Credit Suisse has downgraded the shares to 'neutral' from 'outperform' and Morgan Stanley predicts a dividend cut (keeping its 'equal-weight' rating).
Bell Potter is convinced by the "more sustained dividend outlook", saying "Westpac will still have excess franking credits after paying the final dividend and in our view is capable of maintaining a 94cps dividend in each of 1H17 and 2H17."
Deutsche likes the bank's overall competitiveness: "In our view Westpac is well positioned to meet the challenges of rising competition in high return-on-equity segments such as Australian retail banking. This is supported by an elevated annual investment spend budget vs peers, improving digital capability, and good runway on cost growth from here."
Credit Suisse says the share price is stretched: "Our downgraded rating reflects: (1) Valuations, with WBC appearing to be fair value to us; and (2) The cost story in particular from WBC appearing to be less compelling, both in an absolute sense and relative to peers."
Morgan Stanley worries about a possible dividend cut: "With capital ratios likely to move higher and the return on equity trending lower, we now forecast a dividend cut of about 10 per cent to 168c per share in financial year 2017."
Shares are down 0.8 per cent at $30.27 today.
![The dividend yield is attractive, too.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/b/g/e/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskbij.png/1478566628242.jpg)
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Business conditions and sentiment surprisingly faltered in October as sales growth slowed while weakness in retail prices pointed to still-low inflation and the chance interest rates may yet have to be eased further.
National Australia Bank's monthly survey of more than 500 firms showed its index of business conditions dipped 2 points to +6 in October, more than reversing September's one-point gain. The index remains above its long-run average, however.
The survey's measure of business confidence held also lost 2 points to stand at +4 in October. Sales and employment slipped in the month while profits held steady.
"The recent moderation in some survey indicators is a concerning trend that warrants close monitoring, but our assessment is that the deterioration to date is not yet enough to warrant a significant change in the outlook," said NAB chief economist Alan Oster.
Oster noted he was less confident about the economic outlook than the Reserve Bank which had recently sounded upbeat on the prospects for sustained growth.
The central bank has been on hold since cutting rates in May and August and financial markets have priced out much chance of another easing for the next few months.
NAB's October survey also showed renewed price weakness that could be of concern to the RBA given it was surprisingly low inflation that directly led to this year's cuts.
Final product prices grew at just a 0.1 per cent quarterly pace having fallen 0.3 per cent from the September survey, while wage costs and input prices remained very subdued. Fierce competition in the retail sector saw prices there fall 0.3 per cent at a quarterly rate.
NAB has, for a while, predicted that further easing would come next year as building and resource exports cooled.
The Aussie dollar slipped slightly on the data and is currently trading at US77.08¢, down from US77.22¢ earlier today.
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Shares in A2 Milk have jumped after the dairy company said first quarter revenue was in line with expectations courtesy of growing infant formula and fresh milk sales.
A2 Milk said revenue for the first three months of 2016-17 of $NZ112.5 million was consistent with expectation, while Australia-New Zealand fresh milk sales were up 7 per cent and demand for milk and formula was growing in China.
A2 Milk shares are up 4.1 per cent at $1.95.
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This morning's earnings update from the country's largest retail lender points to a subdued year for our battle-scarred banks, writes AFR Chanticleer columnist Michael Smith:
CBA has capped off a subdued bank profit reporting season with a glimpse into the current financial year for the major banks.
All the signs point to a soft 12 months ahead.
Margins will remain under pressure, bad debts are stabilising but need to be watched closely, funding costs are a worry and the battle for mortgages and deposits will be ferocious.
The bank said cash earnings were $2.4 billion for the three months end-September, flat on the same period a year ago.
Operating income growth was slightly below the 2016 financial year due to lower interest rates, a stronger dollar and higher insurance claims and the bad debt charge was below expectations.
There is nothing in CBA's quarterly trading update, which is traditionally light on detail, that will raise alarm bells but nothing for investors to cheer about either.
The numbers mirror the narrative coming from the other three major banks, which have a financial year end-September and have all delivered subdued full-year results over the last fortnight.
PwC notes that annual cash earnings for the four major banks have fallen for the first time since the global financial crisis due to one-off items, rising bad debts and slowing credit growth.
The CBA update is further evidence that the slowdown experienced in the second half of the 2016 financial year has continued into 2017. There is sustained pressure on margins and signs of weaker credit growth.
The real test will come if the banks are forced to raise more capital or further hose down earnings expectations if regulators enforce stricter capital requirements.
The four banks will also need to invest significantly more in digital technology to improve customer offerings.
![Deutsche Bank analysts are tipping Westpac and ANZ to outperform their peers over the coming three years in terms of ...](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/b/2/g/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskb5a.png/1478563681117.jpg)
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Explosives and fertiliser maker Incitec Pivot has warned it expects markets for its key products to remain weak in 2017, after reporting a 26 per cent drop in annual underlying profit, in line with analysts' forecasts.
The world's No. 2 maker of commercial explosives behind Orica has been hit by a mining slump - especially in the coal industry - which has resulted in less demand for ammonium nitrate.
The company said miners' focus on cost-cutting was also biting.
"The explosives sector is expected to remain challenged through 2017 largely due to regional oversupply of ammonium nitrate and ongoing customer cost focus," Incitec Pivot said in a statement to the ASX.
It said fertiliser demand may increase in the year ahead following wetter-than-average conditions in the second half of 2016, but warned that "depressed global fertiliser prices may persist in the short term."
Net profit before one-offs fell to $295.2 million for the year to September from $398.6 million a year earlier, which was a touch better than analysts' forecasts of around $289 million.
Analysts are forecasting 18 per cent growth in underlying profit for the 2017 financial year.
Incitec's full-year dividend of 8.7 cents a share was slightly below forecasts for 9 cents.
The stock is up 1 per cent at $3.02, after trading down by as much as 3.7 per cent in very early trade before bouncing to be up as high as 3 per cent.
![Incitec Pivot has warned that tough trading conditions are set to continue.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/j/z/x/z/s/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gskaac.png/1478562319397.jpg)
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Shares are picking up where they left off yesterday, if in a tad more subdued fashion, as the spillover from the overnight rally washes on to the local market.
The ASX 200 is up 23 points or 0.4 per cent at 5273, despite a mixed performance from the big banks, with CBA dropping 0.2 per cent following its quarterly earnings update. ANZ is off by a similar margin and Westpac a little higher, while NAB is up 0.3 per cent. The morning's biggest drag is Macquarie, as it falls 2.1 per cent after trading ex-dividend.
That's the bad news - the rest of the bourse is a lot more green than red, as more than three in four of the top 200 climb in early trade.
Miners are enjoying the sustained, powerful rally in copper, iron ore and coal prices. BHP is up 2.4 per cent and Rio 1.8 per cent, while Fortescue has climbed 2.6 per cent. South32 is up 2.2 per cent. Energy stocks are also higher as the oil price climbs.
Gold miners continue their retreat as investors drop their exposures to the precious metal and US election uncertainty hedge. Newcrest is down 1.6 per cent.
The standout performer this week is APN Outdoor, which has surged 18 per cent following a profit upgrade. The company now says it expects FY16 revenue growth to be in the range of 8.5 per cent to 9 per cent, against a previous estimate of 6 per cent to 8 per cent.
The market also likes REA Group's earnings result, with the stock pushing 6.3 per cent higher.
![Winners and losers in early trade.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/9/i/0/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsk9p7.png/1478561470990.jpg)
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Soft listing volumes in the first quarter at News Corporation majority-owned local real estate business REA Group and slumping advertising revenue in its traditional publishing business have weighed on the Rupert Murdoch-controlled company's earnings.
REA Group has warned that soft listing volumes in the first quarter are expected to continue through the first half of the financial year.
REA reported first quarter revenue rose 16 per cent to $170 million, driven by the acquisition of iProperty, which was not included in the previous corresponding period.
Segment EBITDA were up 9 per cent to $90 million, compared with $82 million in the first quarter last year. Revenue increased 18 per cent to $226 million.
REA said it was able to achieve a 14 per cent increase in its Australian residential business revenue in the first quarter despite an 8 per cent decline in listing volumes, which were particularly weak in Sydney and Melbourne.
The company said listing volumes remain low throughout the quarter after initially being weak thanks to uncertainty around the Australian federal election.
It said listings remained at these levels in October are are expected to continue for the rest of the half.
"This has been a strong first quarter for REA Group given the softer market conditions in Australia. Our focus on continuously improving consumer experience and creating value for our customers saw us deliver an increase in depth revenue," REA chief executive Tracey Fellows said.
For the first quarter of the 2016-17, News Corp segment EBITDA fell $US35 million, or 21 per cent, to $130 million. Revenue slipped 2 per cent to $US1.97 billion.
News Corp reported a loss of $US15 million in the quarter, compared with a profit of $US175 million in the period period last year. The company said this was primarily due to the absence of a $US106 million tax benefit from the sale of loss-making education business Amplify in the 2015-16.
EBITDA in its News and Information services business, which houses its newspapers such as The Wall Street Journal, The Australian and The Times, dropped 45 per cent, including $US5 million in costs related to the purchase of Wireless Group and $US12 million invested in Checkout 51. Revenue fell 5 per cent to $US1.2 billion.
![News Corporation executive chairman Rupert Murdoch.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/l/m/0/x/n/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsk935.png/1478560559992.jpg)
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It should be another positive day of trade around the region, writes IG strategist Chris Weston:
The market is telling you they feel Clinton has the election in her sights and judging by the strong moves in healthcare (globally) the view is we see the Democrats winning back the Senate and the Republicans retaining the House, although the race for the Senate in actuality is a 50/50 proposition.
The ASX 200 enjoyed a 1.4% rally yesterday and SPI futures are up a more modest 12 points from the 17:00 overnight re-set. Whether traders fade today's open or carry on buying in earnest is my question of the day, and if I had to make an assumption it would be that further upside prevails. The lead's just so bullish (but baked in to a degree), but are all the gains coming from a position adjustment (short covering) or are we seeing genuine buying?
The S&P 500 has rallied back above 2116 (a key resistance level), the US volatility index has lost 17% and there is still far more hedging to unwind and emerging market assets are flying, with the iShares Emerging market ETF having its best day since March (+3.5%).
Traders are focused on the outcome of the US Electoral College vote and while various estimates have been thrown around they all have Clinton wining, with anywhere between 274 to 322 seats (the victor needs 270). If Clinton takes Florida then its goodnight Vienna for Trump and campaign over, and from what I can see Clinton is getting the edge here and the potential 29 College votes Florida provides. North Carolina is also a toss-up too, with Clinton seemingly pulling ahead in Nevada and New Hampshire. Trump seems to have picked up steam in Ohio and Missouri.
Will markets get the clarity they crave?
Traders and investors have de-risked portfolios and chased the safety of gold and the JPY, but will Wednesdayâs US election provide the answers traders desperately need?
![dollar](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/2/a/q/s/h/image.imgtype.columnistThumbnail.60x60.png/1427237767290.jpg)
The Australian dollar was the biggest beneficiary of the risk-on sentiment overnight among the major currencies, jumping above the US77¢ level and trading within striking distance of a three-month high.
The Aussie rose as high as US77.29¢ against its US counterpart despite the greenback lifting against a basket of currencies.
Global risk appetite got a boost after the FBI early yesterday confirmed that no criminal charges were forthcoming in an investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server when she was Secretary of State, buoying her chances to win the election.
"The Australian dollar has benefited from the boost in risk appetite as the VIX (volatility) index dropped from 22.5 on Friday to 18.67 currently and commodities have also posted decent gains," said NAB currency strategist Rodrigo Catril.
Unlike other occasions over the past months when the Aussie immediately dropped back below the US77¢ level, the currency is hanging onto the gains this morning, trading at US77.22¢.
That could bode well for further gains, should Clinton win the US election tomorrow, said ThinkMarkets senior market analyst Matt Simpson.
"AUD/USD took little notice of the FBI investigation until it was over, suggesting we could see a bullish breakout if Clinton is victorious tomorrow," he said. "A break of US77.34¢ will send it to a three-month high and leaves potential to test a 2016 high."
The Aussie rose as high as US78.35¢ in April and has since August been trading in a relatively narrow corridor between US74.5¢ and US77.5¢.
![Is this time different? The Aussie has tried to rise above US77c several times over the past months.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/8/e/f/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsk8ey.png/1478562818020.jpg)
![I](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/1/m/8/3/a/m/image.imgtype.columnistThumbnail.60x60.png/1455860574632.jpg)
Overall, CBA's first quarterly result this morning was a touch below expectations on an underlying profit basis, writes Watermark Funds Management analyst Omkar Joshi.
"Asset quality has continued to deteriorate in WA and QLD and is something to keep an eye on," he writes. Here are Joshi's key points:
- Cash earnings were in line with consensus expectations but underlying profits were around 2% below expectations. Positively, CBA achieved positive jaws in the period.
- The net interest margin has continued to decline due to funding cost pressures similar to the rest of the industry.
- The bad debt charge was 18bps in the quarter which was lower than the 21bps consensus expectation. The bad debts expense was also 14% below expectations which helped to boost the bottom line. However, asset quality is deteriorating with commercial troublesome loans rising 3% over the quarter and group impaired assets also rising 3%. Given CBA's overweight exposure to WA, asset quality is one to watch closely.
- The core equity tier 1 ratio came in at 9.4%. However, the capital ratio benefitted from BankWest receiving advanced accreditation on its non-retail loan portfolio. This is a one-off benefit and reverses APRA's previous decision to remove it.
![](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/k/8/6/q/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsk879.png/1478559066681.jpg)
![](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/1/m/8/3/k/r/image.imgtype.columnistThumbnail.60x60.png/1427331725030.jpg)
New Zealand's competition regulator has blocked media company NZME's takeover of sector peer Fairfax New Zealand, though it had not made its final decision, it said this morning.
The Commerce Commission said it would accept further submissions from the public and companies before making its final decision in March.
NZME and Fairfax said the regulator had not fully taken into account the "diversity of opinions" that would continue to exist in digital media businesses, even if the two companies merged. The companies would make further submissions to the regulator, they said in a written statement.
Commerce commission chairman Mark Berry said the deal would result in one of the most concentrated media ownerships in the world, with one outlet controlling nearly 90 per cent of New Zealand's print media market.
Australian media companies, APN News & Media and Fairfax Media (publisher of this blog) said in May that they were planning to list APN's New Zealand business, NZME, on the New Zealand stock exchange and merge it with Fairfax's local business.
![The NZ competition regulators suggestion it will block a media merger is a good excuse for a picture of this cute critter.](/web/20161108043126im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/q/d/x/f/r/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsk7w1.png/1478558552951.jpg)
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