Business

Markets Live: Clinton rally fades

Pressure on big bank share prices following CBA's quarterly update flattened early ASX gains, as investors look towards tonight's US election, while iron ore and coal prices surged setting the scene for more buying in resources.

  • CBA's quarterly update fails to impress, as net interest margins continue to decline
  • Business conditions and sentiment falter, which NAB sees as a 'concerning trend'
  • So hot: Domino's shares rally after analysts upgrade the stock on higher guidance
  • Aussie rises above US77¢ as risk sentiment improves and commodity prices soar

That's it for Markets Live today.

Thanks for reading and your comments.

Big day tomorrow! Be sure to tune in from 9am for all the markets news that's fit to blog as the US election finally comes to an end.

Have a relaxing evening and see you all then.

market close

Strong support for resources stocks helped offset selling in the big banks following CBA's quarterly update, as day two of a Clinton-inspired rally ran out of puff ahead of tonight's US election.

The Aussie dollar lost a bit of ground to end the session at 77 US cents, as NAB's monthly business survey pointed to an unexpected decline in confidence and conditions.

The ASX 200 ended 7 points or 0.1 per cent higher at 5258. The bourse initially sailed higher in the wake of the overnight relief rally on Wall St sparked by news the FBI had cleared Hillary Clinton of criminal misdeeds. But we had already enjoyed most of those gains on Monday, and selling in the big banks pushed the market lower as the day progressed.

CBA's quarterly update may have been a little soft, and investors seemed ready to pullback some of yesterday's strong gains. CBA dropped 0.6 per cent and Westpac 0.8 per cent, although ANZ and NAB managed to end the day flat. Macquarie dragged on the index as it fell 2.5 per cent and traded ex-dividend.

Mining and energy stocks were the standout corners of the market as iron ore jumped on Monday night and coal and copper continued to climb. BHP added 2.6 per cent, Rio 1.6 per cent, South32 climbed 2.8 per cent and Fortescue 1.8 per cent. Woodside added 0.9 per cent and Santos jumped 6.3 per cent.

There was plenty of corporate news moving share prices. The biggest mover was APN Outdoor, which jumped 17 per cent on a profit upgrade. Likewise, Domino's Pizza added 6.7 per cent as Macquarie upgraded the stock after the company lifted its earnings guidance yesterday.

Investors liked REA Group's annual profits, pushing the stock up 5.4 per cent.

Dulux fell 2.4 per cent despite a solid jump in profits over the past financial year, while Incitec Pivot shed 1 per cent after it told investors the tough operating conditions were set to continue.

Winners and losers in the ASX 200 today.
Winners and losers in the ASX 200 today. Photo: Bloomberg
china

China's commodity futures markets are again surging, but while the the frenzy earlier this year was driven largely by speculation, this rally has roots in fundamentals, analysts say. 

Continuing its extraordinary rally this year, coking coal futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit their 10 per cent limit on Monday, which pushed the spot price more than 7 per her higher overnight to $US289.30 a tonne.

But it's not the only commodity on a run in futures markets, with spot iron ore prices receiving a boost from a run in iron ore and steel futures. The run has extended into soft commodities, with egg futures surging in the past six weeks.

Iron ore futures in China are up more than 3 per cent today to trade near a two-year high, while coking coal futures are flat.

Unlike the experience in April, coking coal and iron ore prices have roots in fundamentals.

"Clearly the spot or physical markets in coal inparticular are tight and I do feel that while the futures markets in China have been quite buoyant, it's in part driven by China's sudden surge in demand for imported raw material," ANZ senior commodity analyst Daniel Hynes said. 

He said there was some influence from the sentiment in futures markets, but it was a "chicken and egg" situation.

"In part you are probably seeing a bit of the impact in improved sentiment in the steel sector blowing over into other commodities," he said.  

The rally in soft commodity futures is likely more speculative, with rising inflation expectations leading to a pick up in food prices in China, Commonwealth Bank of Australia China and Asia economist Wei Li said. 

But it may also be linked to the tightening of China's housing market, he said, with capital controls preventing investors from taking money out of China, investors are looking to buy up other tradeable assets.

But commodity futures are no stranger to speculative bubbles. Li noted garlic futures were currently more expensive than pork.

"This actually happens every three to four years, there is a speculative upturn followed by an immediate downturn. It's a small market and easily manipulated, it's very cyclical and unique to China's domestic economic conditions." 

Chinese egg futures have surged in the past six weeks.
Chinese egg futures have surged in the past six weeks. Photo: Andrey Rudakov
<p>

An economy without growth is far from our biggest worry, writes SMH economics editor Ross Gittins:

If you think the possible ascension of Donald Trump is our one big worry you haven't been paying attention. Some climate scientists are worried sick over the possibility that climate change may be passing the point of no return while we procrastinate over controlling it.

Meanwhile, the nation's – nay, the world's – economists worry that the wellsprings of economic growth are drying up in the developed countries. Think of it – an economy without growth!

On Monday the Productivity Commission issued a discussion paper exclaiming that there is "justified global anxiety" that improvements in productivity and the growth in national income they cause have "slowed or stopped".

In my job I'm not supposed to say it but, sorry, I'm a lot more worried about inaction on climate change than the feared end of economic growth – if for no other reason than that going backward must surely be worse than not going forward.

Why can't most economists see that? Because climate change is not their department. They're meant to be experts on how to make economies grow, and that's all they want to talk about.

Most economists I know never doubt that a growing economy is what keeps us happy and, should the economy stop growing, it would make us all inconsolable.

They can't prove that, of course, but they're as convinced of it as anyone else selling something.

I'm not so sure. I'm sure a lot of greedy business people would be unhappy if their profits and bonuses stopped growing, but I often wonder if the rest of us could adjust to a stationary economy a lot more easily than it suits economists and business people to believe.

And get this: there is a fair chance we may get to find out if I'm right.

Read more.

Most economists never doubt that a growing economy is what keeps us happy.
Most economists never doubt that a growing economy is what keeps us happy.  Photo: iStock
US news

Former McCain campaign chief strategist Steve Schmidt joined a MSNBC panel on Monday and discussed the importance of Michiganto the 2016 election.

"I think this is the second of four really consequential global elections, the next will be the French and the German," Schmidt explained. He noted how there is a shift in the global political climate from one where people are split down the middle as right-leaning and left-leaning, to one based on who has benefited or not from globalisation.

"I think that's going to be the new fault line in American politics," Schmidt said. "And the voters, the Bernie Sanders voter and the Trump voter — like fishnetting, the fish can swing through the netting from left to right very, very easily."

Schmidt touched on Silicon Valley, otherwise known as a hub of tech start-ups and entrepreneurship. "Let's look at the Silicon Valley wing of the Democratic party and be clear about the partisan nature of all of these companies," Schmidt started.

"The number one job for not college educated white men in America is driving something somewhere. So when we talk about an era now of driverless trucks, driverless cars, where do those jobs go? Where's that displacement?" Schmidt continued.

He added, "We have these arguments about minimum wage — $12, $15. We're 18 months away in this country from a robot in the window at the McDonalds handing you your cheeseburger."

We're not having conversations about the "profound displacements that are going to come to what's left of the high paying blue-collar jobs in this country," Schmidt said.

Read more.

US maufacturing jobs versus the rise of the robots.
US maufacturing jobs versus the rise of the robots. Photo: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
Back to top
eye

The world economy is in decent shape on the eve of the US elections, Capital Economics claims.

The firm's senior global economist Andrew Kenningham estimates that world GDP growth accelerated a bit further in the third quarter of this year, to just over 3.0 per cent on an annualised basis.

"This was largely due to much faster growth in the US, which in turn was a result of a spike in exports, and continued rapid growth in China."

Kenningham points out that Markit's global composite PMI reached an eleven-month high in October and on past form is consistent with solid global growth, of over 3 per cent. The rise was largely driven by a jump in the reading for advanced economies.

But global growth may slow a bit in the fourth quarter as the US rebound fades, he says.

Shares in troubled online retailer Surfstitch have been halted from trading while the company considers another approach from spurned suitor Crown Financial.

After building up a 10.4 per cent stake over the last few months, Crown Financial lobbed a $55.4 million non-binding takeover offer for the embattled retailer last week.

The proposal was rejected by the Surfstitch board because it did not deliver an appropriate premium for control and was highly conditional.

Surfstitch is also being sued by Coastalwatch, a company linked to Crown Financial, over a failed content deal negotiated by Surfstitch's co-founder and former chief executive Justin Cameron.

Coastalwatch/Crown proposed buying Surfstitch for 20¢ a share, just above the 30-day volume weighted average price of 19¢. However, Surfstitch's board decided the bid was not in the best interests of shareholders.

Coastalwatch/Crown refuses to take no for an answer and has now gone public, releasing details of its offer to the media.

Surfstitch said the trading halt was necessary so the board could assess the letter and respond appropriately.

Surfstitch shares have been halted amid the kerfuffle over a takeover offer.
Surfstitch shares have been halted amid the kerfuffle over a takeover offer. Photo: Andrew Quilty
need2know

The days of massive central bank stimulus are ending but that doesn't have to mean bad news for shares as global growth slowly picks up, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) says, while identifying five key investing themes for the next year.

It is likely that low rates, low growth and low returns will remain the order of the day.

However, GSAM expects shares to be the best of a bad lot and believes equities could deliver low-to-mid single-digit returns.

1. The fiscal boost

As governments prepare to take the growth reins, Goldman Sachs expects infrastructure projects to benefit from public funding.

"Initially, we think the "repairers" and "builders" of infrastructure will be the main beneficiaries, followed by "owners" of infrastructure over the longer term," wrote the analysts.

If governments are able to target their policies in such a way to stimulate growth, equities are likely to enjoy the benefits more than bonds, given the prospects for inflation.

"Banks, especially, could benefit as inflation is likely to prompt interest rate increases which will boost their margins," writes Goldman Sachs. "All forms of real assets such as infrastructure, real estate, timber, commodities and materials are also likely to benefit."

2. No need to stretch for yield

Investors have scoured the world hunting for yield as low interest rates flattened returns. As such, many investors currently own stocks for yield, and bonds for capital appreciation.

Goldman Sachs argues this paradoxical situation is unsustainable.

The most common complaint from equity investors is expensive prices attached to high-yielding stocks, in both the Australian market and overseas.

Goldman Sachs argues it's time investors looked beyond those high-yielding plays and that there are plenty of reasonably-valued equities to choose from, particularly when compared with credit.

"We find that companies whose yields fall into the second quintile tend to offer more attractive valuations, lower dividend payout ratios, better balance sheets and greater earnings growth prospects," wrote the analysts.

Read more.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management believes there are plenty of opportunities for equity investors.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management believes there are plenty of opportunities for equity investors.  Photo: AP
I

ANZ is the only one of the four majors to have recorded share price gains over the past 12 months, with investors struggling to find reasons to buy shares in CBA, NAB and Westpac amid talk of peaking profits and squeezed margins.

ANZ is making up for time lost pursuing a fruitless Asian strategy, and the market loves a turnaround story, although that enthusiasm has waned somewhat over the past month, which coincides with bank reporting season.

This chart tells the tale, although it does little to say whether the pessimism hanging over the sector is likely to continue.

If you include dividends over the past year the shareholder return will look better. At current prices, Westpac has a net yield of 6.3. per cent, CBA 5.9 per cent, ANZ 6.5 per cent, and NAB 7.6 per cent.

Bloomberg converts analysts' ratings to a number between 1 (the lowest recommendation, for example "strong sell") to 5 ("strong buy") and then takes the average for a consensus overview. On that basis, CBA is the least popular pick among brokers with a consensus rating of 2.9 (3 would be equivalent to a hold). Then NAB at 3.7, while Westpac and ANZ rate 3.9.

china

China's October exports fell 7.3 per cent from a year earlier, while imports shrank 1.4 per cent, both declining more than expected.

That left the country with a trade surplus of $US49.06 billion (325.25 billion yuan) for the month, the General Administration of Customs said.

Analysts had expected October exports to have fallen 6 per cent from a year earlier, an improvement from a 10 per cent contraction in September but pointing to persistently sluggish global demand.

Imports were expected to have dropped 1 per cent, after falling 1.9 per cent in September. The trade surplus was forecast to have expanded to $US51.70 billion in October, versus September's $US41.99 billion.

China imported 80.8 million tonnes of iron ore in October, the lowest since February and down 13 per cent from the previous month, as steel mills curtailed output amid tightening profits and soaring costs. Compared with a year ago, shipments of the steelmaking ingredient were still up 7 per cent.

The numbers suggest that import volumes probably continued to hold up well on the back of recent signs that domestic demand has strengthened, said Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard.

"The ongoing cyclical rebound in China's economy should support imports for another quarter or two but is unlikely to last much longer given that the boost to growth from earlier policy easing is set to fade before long." 

Both imports and exports were weaker than expected.
Both imports and exports were weaker than expected. Photo: Bloomberg
Back to top
eye

In the hours after the president is elected, equity investors need to brace for volatility. What they shouldn't do is panic.

That's because regardless of how prices react immediately after the election, next-day moves in the S&P 500 Index are useless in telling what comes after. While the index swings an average 1.5 per cent the day after the vote, gains or losses over the first 24 hours predict the market's direction 12 months later less than half the time.

This matters because the compulsion to act in the vote's aftermath is often very strong -- stocks swing twice as violently as normal those days, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They plummeted 5 per cent just after Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008. But while nothing says Wednesday's reaction won't be a harbinger for the year, nothing says it will, either, and investors should think before doing anything rash.

"Trying to trade that is very difficult," said Thomas Melcher, the Philadelphia-based chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group. "Even if the market sells off, if you have any reasonable time horizon, that should be a buying opportunity. The dust will settle and people will conclude the economy is OK."

In the 22 elections going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has fallen 15 times the day after polls close, for an average loss of 1.8 pe rcent. Stocks reversed course and moved higher over the next 12 months in nine of those instances, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nothing shows the unreliability of first-day signals more than the routs that accompanied victories by Obama, whose election in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis preceded a two-day plunge in which more than $US2 trillion of global share value was erased. It wasn't much better in 2012, when election day was followed by a two-day drop that swelled to 3.6 percent in the S&P 500, at the time the worst drop in a year.

Of course, Obama has been anything but bad for equities -- or at least, he hasn't gotten in their way. The S&P 500 has posted an average annual gain of 13.3 per cent since Nov. 4, 2008, better than nine of the previous 12 administrations. Data like that imply investors struggle to process the meaning of a new president just after elections, or infuse the winner with greater influence than they have.

Market moves the day after an election predict the next 12 months' direction less than half the time.
Market moves the day after an election predict the next 12 months' direction less than half the time. Photo: Bloomberg
money printing

Australia's home renovation market should strengthen over the next 12 months because housing "churn" is slowing down and more property owners are choosing to renovate rather than move, the managing director of paint maker Dulux Group says.

Patrick Houlihan said it was difficult to forecast whether residential real estate prices were at a peak in Sydney and Melbourne and only "time will tell" if they would move higher, but the renovation market was strong and likely to remain highly resilient even if the housing market was more subdued.

This should ensure continued resilience for Dulux, which has a market share of about 43 per cent in Australia's paint market, and also owns the Selleys range of handyman and sealant products, and the Yates garden products and fertiliser business.

Each of those businesses on an individual basis produced record profits in the 12 months ended September 30, 2016 despite the volatile market conditions in the past few months as the failed Masters hardware chain being cut loose by Woolworths, conducted a fire sale of its own stock.

Houlihan said the home renovation segments represent about 65 per cent of overall revenue across the group. Dulux expects net profit after for the 12 months ended September 30, 2017, would be higher than the $130.4 million in net profit after tax it announced today for the year ended September 30.

This 2015-16 result was up 15.6 per cent on a bottomline basis compared with the previous year, but when the impact of one-offs were stripped out of the previous year's results, the increase in net profit was a more modest 4.6 per cent.

Sales revenue crept ahead by 1.7 per cent to $1.72 billion for 2015-16, while earnings before interest and tax were up 14.7 per cent to $201.1 million.

The company lifted its final dividend to 12.5¢ from 11.5¢ at the same time a year ago. The fully franked final dividend will be paid on December 9.

Shares are down 1.1 per cent at $6.27.

Dulux has reported a 15.6 per cent lift in annual profit to $130.4 million.
Dulux has reported a 15.6 per cent lift in annual profit to $130.4 million. Photo: Viki Lascaris
ASX

Time for a lunchtime update, and the Clinton-in-the-clear rally that carried shares higher yesterday and overnight looks to have ebbed through today's trade, largely thanks to an underwhelming performance from the big banks.

The ASX 200 is up 8 points or 0.1 per cent at 5259, after trading up as much as 32 points following the strong lead from overseas. Our modest gains are being mimicked around the region, while the Aussie dollar has dropped around 0.3 US cents to 77 US cents. A surprisingly poor reading from NAB's monthly business sentiment and conditions survey wouldn't have helped.

CBA released its quarterly earnings update, which has been greeted by selling by investors, pushing the stock down 1 per cent. The other big banks are also lower after all climbing strongly yesterday: Westpac is off 1.2 per cent, NAB 0.3 per cent and ANZ 0.2 per cent.

A 2.6 per cent drop in Macquarie as it trades ex-dividend is weighing heavily.

Miners, however, are getting strong support which if anything has grown through the session as commodities such as iron ore, coal and copper extend their amazing run. BHP is up 2.8 per cent and Rio 1.9 per cent, Fortescue is 2.4 per cent higher and South 32 2.2 per cent.  Little love for gold diggers, however, on waning enthusiasm for the precious metal as a Trump haven. Newcrest is off another 1.7 per cent today.

The biggest winner thus far is APN Outdoor Group, which has surged 17 per cent on a profit upgrade. REA Group has jumped 5.2 per cent following its annual earnings, but a less impressive profit result from News Corp may be weighing on sentiment around other media names such as Southern Cross, Nine, and Sky Network.

In other corporate news:

  • Domino's Pizza just keeps getting hotter: climbing 6.5 per cent after Macquarie raised the stock to outperform. Yesterday Domino's upgraded its FY17 EBITDA growth target to around 30 per cent, from 25 per cent.
  • Incitec Pivot drops 0.5 per cent as it says conditions are set to remain tough.
  • Dulux Group is off 1 per cent despite announcing a 15 per cent lift in annual profits. More on that in a sec.
Legends and losers at lunchtime.
Legends and losers at lunchtime. Photo: Bloomberg
I

Analysts have some very mixed opinions on Westpac's results, which got an initial thumbs up from the market yesterday, despite slightly softer numbers and the reduction of its return-on-equity target to around 14 per cent, from 15 per cent.

Investors were cheered by the bank's decision to keep its dividend unchanged, shrugging off warnings that its payout ratio isn't sustainable.

While Bell Potter has raised the stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and Deutsche sticks with it's 'buy', Credit Suisse has downgraded the shares to 'neutral' from 'outperform' and Morgan Stanley predicts a dividend cut (keeping its 'equal-weight' rating).

Bell Potter is convinced by the "more sustained dividend outlook", saying "Westpac will still have excess franking credits after paying the final dividend and in our view is capable of maintaining a 94cps dividend in each of 1H17 and 2H17."

Deutsche likes the bank's overall competitiveness: "In our view Westpac is well positioned to meet the challenges of rising competition in high return-on-equity segments such as Australian retail banking. This is supported by an elevated annual investment spend budget vs peers, improving digital capability, and good runway on cost growth from here."

Credit Suisse says the share price is stretched: "Our downgraded rating reflects: (1) Valuations, with WBC appearing to be fair value to us; and (2) The cost story in particular from WBC appearing to be less compelling, both in an absolute sense and relative to peers."

Morgan Stanley worries about a possible dividend cut: "With capital ratios likely to move higher and the return on equity trending lower, we now forecast a dividend cut of about 10 per cent to 168c per share in financial year 2017."

Shares are down 0.8 per cent at $30.27 today.

The dividend yield is attractive, too.
The dividend yield is attractive, too. 
eco news

Business conditions and sentiment surprisingly faltered in October as sales growth slowed while weakness in retail prices pointed to still-low inflation and the chance interest rates may yet have to be eased further.

National Australia Bank's monthly survey of more than 500 firms showed its index of business conditions dipped 2 points to +6 in October, more than reversing September's one-point gain. The index remains above its long-run average, however.

The survey's measure of business confidence held also lost 2 points to stand at +4 in October. Sales and employment slipped in the month while profits held steady.

"The recent moderation in some survey indicators is a concerning trend that warrants close monitoring, but our assessment is that the deterioration to date is not yet enough to warrant a significant change in the outlook," said NAB chief economist Alan Oster.

Oster noted he was less confident about the economic outlook than the Reserve Bank which had recently sounded upbeat on the prospects for sustained growth.

The central bank has been on hold since cutting rates in May and August and financial markets have priced out much chance of another easing for the next few months.

NAB's October survey also showed renewed price weakness that could be of concern to the RBA given it was surprisingly low inflation that directly led to this year's cuts.

Final product prices grew at just a 0.1 per cent quarterly pace having fallen 0.3 per cent from the September survey, while wage costs and input prices remained very subdued. Fierce competition in the retail sector saw prices there fall 0.3 per cent at a quarterly rate.

NAB has, for a while, predicted that further easing would come next year as building and resource exports cooled.

The Aussie dollar slipped slightly on the data and is currently trading at US77.08¢, down from US77.22¢ earlier today.

Back to top
shares up

Shares in A2 Milk have jumped after the dairy company said first quarter revenue was in line with expectations courtesy of growing infant formula and fresh milk sales.

A2 Milk said revenue for the first three months of 2016-17 of $NZ112.5 million was consistent with expectation, while Australia-New Zealand fresh milk sales were up 7 per cent and demand for milk and formula was growing in China.

A2 Milk shares are up 4.1 per cent at $1.95.

<p>

This morning's earnings update from the country's largest retail lender points to a subdued year for our battle-scarred banks, writes AFR Chanticleer columnist Michael Smith:

CBA has capped off a subdued bank profit reporting season with a glimpse into the current financial year for the major banks.

All the signs point to a soft 12 months ahead.

Margins will remain under pressure, bad debts are stabilising but need to be watched closely, funding costs are a worry and the battle for mortgages and deposits will be ferocious.

The bank said cash earnings were $2.4 billion for the three months end-September, flat on the same period a year ago.

Operating income growth was slightly below the 2016 financial year due to lower interest rates, a stronger dollar and higher insurance claims and the bad debt charge was below expectations.

There is nothing in CBA's quarterly trading update, which is traditionally light on detail, that will raise alarm bells but nothing for investors to cheer about either.

The numbers mirror the narrative coming from the other three major banks, which have a financial year end-September and have all delivered subdued full-year results over the last fortnight.

PwC notes that annual cash earnings for the four major banks have fallen for the first time since the global financial crisis due to one-off items, rising bad debts and slowing credit growth.

The CBA update is further evidence that the slowdown experienced in the second half of the 2016 financial year has continued into 2017. There is sustained pressure on margins and signs of weaker credit growth.

The real test will come if the banks are forced to raise more capital or further hose down earnings expectations if regulators enforce stricter capital requirements.

The four banks will also need to invest significantly more in digital technology to improve customer offerings.

Read more at the AFR.

 

Deutsche Bank analysts are tipping Westpac and ANZ to outperform their peers over the coming three years in terms of ...
Deutsche Bank analysts are tipping Westpac and ANZ to outperform their peers over the coming three years in terms of cash earnings per share growth. Photo: Deutsche Bank
commodities

Explosives and fertiliser maker Incitec Pivot has warned it expects markets for its key products to remain weak in 2017, after reporting a 26 per cent drop in annual underlying profit, in line with analysts' forecasts.

The world's No. 2 maker of commercial explosives behind Orica has been hit by a mining slump - especially in the coal industry - which has resulted in less demand for ammonium nitrate.

The company said miners' focus on cost-cutting was also biting.

"The explosives sector is expected to remain challenged through 2017 largely due to regional oversupply of ammonium nitrate and ongoing customer cost focus," Incitec Pivot said in a statement to the ASX.

It said fertiliser demand may increase in the year ahead following wetter-than-average conditions in the second half of 2016, but warned that "depressed global fertiliser prices may persist in the short term."

Net profit before one-offs fell to $295.2 million for the year to September from $398.6 million a year earlier, which was a touch better than analysts' forecasts of around $289 million.

Analysts are forecasting 18 per cent growth in underlying profit for the 2017 financial year.

Incitec's full-year dividend of 8.7 cents a share was slightly below forecasts for 9 cents.

The stock is up 1 per cent at $3.02, after trading down by as much as 3.7 per cent in very early trade before bouncing to be up as high as 3 per cent.

Incitec Pivot has warned that tough trading conditions are set to continue.
Incitec Pivot has warned that tough trading conditions are set to continue. Photo: Greg McKenzie
market open

Shares are picking up where they left off yesterday, if in a tad more subdued fashion, as the spillover from the overnight rally washes on to the local market.

The ASX 200 is up 23 points or 0.4 per cent at 5273, despite a mixed performance from the big banks, with CBA dropping 0.2 per cent following its quarterly earnings update. ANZ is off by a similar margin and Westpac a little higher, while NAB is up 0.3 per cent. The morning's biggest drag is Macquarie, as it falls 2.1 per cent after trading ex-dividend.

That's the bad news - the rest of the bourse is a lot more green than red, as more than three in four of the top 200 climb in early trade.

Miners are enjoying the sustained, powerful rally in copper, iron ore and coal prices. BHP is up 2.4 per cent and Rio 1.8 per cent, while Fortescue has climbed 2.6 per cent. South32 is up 2.2 per cent. Energy stocks are also higher as the oil price climbs.

Gold miners continue their retreat as investors drop their exposures to the precious metal and US election uncertainty hedge. Newcrest is down 1.6 per cent.

The standout performer this week is APN Outdoor, which has surged 18 per cent following a profit upgrade. The company now says it expects FY16 revenue growth to be in the range of 8.5 per cent to 9 per cent, against a previous estimate of 6 per cent to 8 per cent.

The market also likes REA Group's earnings result, with the stock pushing 6.3 per cent higher.

Winners and losers in early trade.
Winners and losers in early trade. Photo: Bloomberg
money printing

Soft listing volumes in the first quarter at News Corporation majority-owned local real estate business REA Group and slumping advertising revenue in its traditional publishing business have weighed on the Rupert Murdoch-controlled company's earnings.

REA Group has warned that soft listing volumes in the first quarter are expected to continue through the first half of the financial year.

REA reported first quarter revenue rose 16 per cent to $170 million, driven by the acquisition of iProperty, which was not included in the previous corresponding period.

Segment EBITDA were up 9 per cent to $90 million, compared with $82 million in the first quarter last year. Revenue increased 18 per cent to $226 million.

REA said it was able to achieve a 14 per cent increase in its Australian residential business revenue in the first quarter despite an 8 per cent decline in listing volumes, which were particularly weak in Sydney and Melbourne.

The company said listing volumes remain low throughout the quarter after initially being weak thanks to uncertainty around the Australian federal election.

It said listings remained at these levels in October are are expected to continue for the rest of the half.

"This has been a strong first quarter for REA Group given the softer market conditions in Australia. Our focus on continuously improving consumer experience and creating value for our customers saw us deliver an increase in depth revenue," REA chief executive Tracey Fellows said.

For the first quarter of the 2016-17, News Corp segment EBITDA fell $US35 million, or 21 per cent, to $130 million. Revenue slipped 2 per cent to $US1.97 billion.

News Corp reported a loss of $US15 million in the quarter, compared with a profit of $US175 million in the period period last year. The company said this was primarily due to the absence of a $US106 million tax benefit from the sale of loss-making education business Amplify in the 2015-16.

EBITDA in its News and Information services business, which houses its newspapers such as The Wall Street Journal, The Australian and The Times, dropped 45 per cent, including $US5 million in costs related to the purchase of Wireless Group and $US12 million invested in Checkout 51. Revenue fell 5 per cent to $US1.2 billion.

Read more at the AFR.

News Corporation executive chairman Rupert Murdoch.
News Corporation executive chairman Rupert Murdoch.  Photo: AP
Back to top