Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal

Update, Oct. 17: the votetogether.ca team has endorsed Tassi, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, as the best positioned to defeat the Conservatives.

Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale.  Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.

HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both.  And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.

Strategic voting in HWAD

If the 2011 are redistributed into the new riding (see here), the result would have been CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  But in this election, most polls are showing the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario at the expense of both other parties.

Threehundredeight.com projects a Liberal victory here, with the lower bounds of their expected tally above the upper limit of the Conservative.

Now there is a new local poll that confirms that result. Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of the riding for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting.  It found the Liberals in the lead:

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

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Updates about new polls:

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Strategic voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: crowdfunding polls

Strategic voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

A couple days ago, I discussed the prospects for strategic voting in the riding of Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, and advising waiting until more is known.  The good people at votetogether.ca were gathering pledges of strategic voters, with the goal of crowd-funding a poll once 500 pledges were reached.

The pledges reached 500 yesterday and they are now crowd-funding for a poll.  

A poll would be greatly helpful to strategic voters in the riding.  The riding is a new one, so there is no solid historical data to go on.  If the votes from 2011 are redistributed in the new riding (see here), the result would be CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  Should strategic voters support the Liberals or NDP?  It's hard to know.

This is where you can come in.  A donation page to fund polls has been added to the votetogether.ca page.  If you can spare a few dollars, do so!

Update.  There is now a poll showing a Liberal lead.  See more here: Strategic Voting: Ham-West-Ancaster-Dundas: new poll.