Showing posts with label Antitrust. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Antitrust. Show all posts

Friday, May 16, 2008

The Chivalric Defense of Trusts

There is a phrase Americans use a lot when faced with political opposition and disagreement: "I don't agree with you, but I will defend your right to say it."


(Whether this is true or simply a rhetorical device is less certain. For whatever reason war-supporters say this all too often with regards to the war in Iraq, which demonstrates the same amount of equivocation as was present in the connection between Iraq and al-Qaeda in 2003. As if the terrorists attacked the US in order to limit the speech of leftist American dissenters.)

Since my copy of Windows XP Pro has completely failed in the last few days without recourse to re-installation (during finals week no less!) should I have been thinking along similar lines: "I disagree with your products, but I will defend your right to sell them"?

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Perennial Gale of the Software Industry

When the antitrust divisions in the US and the EU had filed suits against Microsoft for "bundling" its software with Internet Explorer, the courts said Microsoft's dominance at the time being was enough for it to see unmatched profits for years to come.

Something missing from almost every simple antitrust debate and all-too-common in an experienced antitrust debate is what has been referred to as dynamic efficiency. A half-century ago, Joseph Schumpeter had offered an analysis of capitalist industry as being one where monopolies are common and frequently swept aside by a "perennial gale of creative destruction". This dynamic competition cannot be analyzed - the way it commonly is - by price-competitions in short-term comparative statics. This is competition that is analyzed solely through current prices and short-run profit-maximizing equilibria.

Economist at MIT, Richard Schmalensee, had testified on behalf of Microsoft in the US antitrust cases. He points out in one of his articles four Schumpeterian characterstics of the software industry in general. The first is that software companies compete dynamically with each other. After the fixed costs of designing, developing, and testing new software, the marginal cost of creating copies of each product is "trivial". The cost of producing software is almost entirely fixed, given that advertising is also a fixed cost.

The second is that the value of software increases depending on its compatibility with other products, which Schmalensee calls "systems" and "network" effects. So the quality of a software platform depends on which programs and interfaces can be used with it. For example, few people would want an XBox 360 if there weren't any good games for it, or an HDDVD player if there are fewer DVDs for it. These "format wars" become contested grounds for dynamism and creative destruction.

Third, despite the network industry models, major innovators in the software market occur repeatedly and market power can quickly be displaced or complemented by rival firms in software or hardware. Schmalensee cites Excel software as evidence of rapid technological change, which was initially only available for the Macintosh and then incorporated into other platforms later.

Forth, the increase in functionality through dynamic competition involves increasing the durability of components and product features broadens the scope of competition. For example, spell-checkers, which were originally not bundled into word-processing products, shifts the boundaries between the categories of software markets in competition.

Something I find interesting in this framework is the distinction made between "Schumpeterian industries" and the possibility of, presumably, "non-Schumpeterian industries". Are there such industries if we take Schumpeter's thesis seriously?

Just as the Attorney General at the US Department of Justice Antitrust Division, Thomas Barnett, has used Schumpeter's dynamic efficiency framework to make the case for monopolies (and also the confusing case against cartels), it is evidence that the influence of Schumpeter's thought is quite widespread today, yet it is questionable whether many economists or antitrust authorities understand the claims he is making. An industry like Portland Cement may be non-Schumpeterian today, yet in the long-run ultimately displaced by the perennial gale of creative destruction. Portland Cement has used the same production processes for over a hundred years and nothing has changed, given that it is a very standardized product, yet cost-saving production methods over time have indeed been dynamic. Software, on the other hand, changes rapidly every six months and is so obviously dynamic we grant it Schumpeterian status. By the same Moorean-Schumpeterian token, with every six months that go by perhaps Microsoft itself matters less and less.

My single-most irksome contention I hold against the authorities on antitrust is that they appear to cherrypick from high-sounding theorists like Schumpeter to prove a point they are much less committed to than they would admit. Perhaps next they will be quoting from Thomas Malthus in order to explain why they ought to impose export-controls on rice, or John Maynard Keynes in order to explain why in the short-run we should actually fuck with the economy, and eventually (as they often do) quote the eugenic words of Thomas Carlyle in order to explain why everything they do is so dismally scientific.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

We Should "Prize and Encourage" Monopolies

Assistant Attorney General Thomas Barnett of the antitrust division of the Department of Justice writes an interesting summary of what some would consider neoliberal views on antitrust. You can find his essay Maximizing Welfare Through Technology Innovation on the DOJ's website. Last year an article about his rejection of Google's claims against Microsoft appeared in the New York Times. This article I've written is an analysis of his substantive claims and rationale behind the more laissez faire position on trusts. It is also a critique of these views, arguing that Barnett and his colleagues have been nearsighted in their analysis of the collusive efforts of capitalists, workers and cartels.

For Barnett and the antitrust officials at the DOJ to adopt the approach, “first, do no harm” articulates a sort of Hippocratic, oath-like attitude toward maximizing society's welfare. Barnett explains that in the context of antitrust, the principle should be interpreted as a careful intention to not "kill the goose that lays the golden egg." This comes under his broader discussion of three different types of efficiency, static, incremental-dynamic, and leap frog-dynamic.

Under the administration of Barnett, the antitrust division finds the dynamic efficiencies, especially where "entirely new forms of production" (that is, to "leap frog") are realistic potentialities, to be the primary incentive for not punishing firms with greater market power. This is quite unlike the view that earlier administrations had taken to, as evidenced by the Philadelphia Bank case, where two banks with relatively little market power were broken up by the antitrust authorities in the 1970s.

The type of competition which Barnett says antitrust officials should not mistake for a violation of antitrust law is what Joseph Schumpeter terms "creative destruction". This sort of competition is a long run phenomena, dealing with "new technologies", "new sources of supply", "new types of organization", and "new commodities". It is the constant restructuring and reorganization of the market through competitive dynamism.

For this reason, here quoting Judge Easterbrook, Barnett believes that "aggressive, competitive conduct by a monopolist" should not be mistaken for anticompetitive conduct or performance since it is "highly beneficial to consumers." Competitive and exclusionary conduct looks the same from the court’s point of view. This is the difficulty, Barnett says. But instead of condemning the monopolists as social welfare-destroyers, courts should "exercise appropriate caution" when dealing with them.

He adds that the courts should to the best of their ability "prize and encourage" dynamic efficiency through antitrust enforcement. That is, prize and encourage monopoly market structure. Because monopoly structure does not determine monopoly performance, the drive towards greater exclusion is interpreted as an exemplification of sort of pro-competitive performances that do not warrant the DOJ's scrutiny toward the market's structure. Exclusionary conduct, in short, is welfare-maximizing. If two firms compete head-to-head in an industry, arguably, every bit of exclusionary conduct (provided a legal system conducive to competition) helps the firms to perform more efficiently, and thus more desirably.

Even if there is only one firm in an industry, the threat of potential competition through the sorts of dynamic efficiencies discussed by Schumpeter ensure the market performance will be efficient and desirable in the long run. If the monopoly firm is not dynamically efficient, it will be taken over by new entrants that are dynamically efficient, and the process of creative destruction continues.

Yet for this same reason, allegedly, Barnett believes that cartels should be the cause of tremendous worry. "Their entire purpose is to avoid disruptive forces of competition," he says. To live the "quiet life"—as Nobel Laureate John Hicks wrote—is their ultimate end. Barnett adds that cartels are not only dynamically inefficient, they are statically inefficient as well. This is to say that cartels not only decrease social welfare in the short run (static), but in the long run as well (dynamic). This is "double the ‘calamity’" and deserving of "severe sanctions available against them under U.S. law."



Now, if one were to attack Barnett's position on trusts, what would it look like? One position, that of the Marxist, might argue that antitrust forces like these only stave off the destruction of the capitalist system. By enforcing the laws on cartels, the DOJ ultimately keeps away the inevitable tendency toward the paroxysm of the capitalist system. I'm not sure whether the appropriate Marxist thing to do is to breakup the trusts (cartels, monopolies, oligopolies, etc.) and give the industries to the workers, or whether to allow capitalism the ultimate free-for-all it needs to force workers into revolt. I don't consider myself a Marxist so my confusion is warranted to some degree.

At any rate, the modern liberal, on the other hand, would argue that the monopoly structure is itself evidence of poor performance and poor conduct. To the liberal, market structure determines conduct which in turn determines performance. This was embodied in the work of Joe Bain during the 1970s, and to this day modern liberals have made essentially the same argument with regards to monopoly market structure. Since the 70s, countless empirical and econometric studies have shown this falsifiable hypothesis to in fact be false: market structure does not determine market performance.

Of course, there have been more modern restatements of the structure-conduct-performance paradigm, and yet there have also been restatements to counter this as well. For the most part, I don't agree with the liberal's basic contention that structure determines performance. It seems to me, as it does to Barnett, that performance determines structure. Especially when one takes into account the dynamic aspect of competition, the cost-benefits to dynamically efficient firms will lead to market structures in which inefficient and poorly performing firms must either vanish or simply refrain from entering a market.

Probably one of the less talked about areas of trusts are labor trusts, or unions as they are more commonly known. In general, modern liberals favor unions and disfavor monopolies. Yet a union is in fact a monopoly on the labor force. It seems to me that this is a one-sided view. If I would allow the performance of labor market to determine the structure of the labor market without interfering with its marketplace, I should also allow the performance of the capitalists' market to determine the structure of the industry without interfering with the marketplace.

Another point about labor forces is that they are more likely to be unionized when there are monopolistic structures than when there is perfect competition, since a firm's variable costs (among other things, this primarily denotes wages) are not fixed in the short run or in the long run. They can be cut if needed, and in a perfectly competitive market cuts to variable costs are needed more due to elasticities and lack of market power. In monopoly market structures, therefore, it would seem the level of cooperation (collusion, unionizing, etc.) increases relatively simultaneously with capitalists as it does with the labor force.

Because we ought not interfere with the aggregation and power of the capitalists, according to Barnett's analysis, why ought we to interfere with the aggregation and power of the labor force? I am not suggesting this is Barnett's position. I am merely using this example to make my argument more clear. It is within a labor union's interest to be dynamically efficient and exclusionary just as it for the monopoly capitalists. The union's performance keeps the firm in a position of market power and dominance, and, so long as the union has market power, the threat of striking or other predatory practices keeps the unions' profits high. With the background analysis that I have provided, I now wish to explain why I think Barnett's argument is ultimately unsatisfactory.

When capitalists collude with other capitalists, how is the DOJ to determine whether this is competitive or anticompetitive? Barnett suggests that performance, as opposed to structure, is the indicator the antitrust division should be concerned about. However, Barnett points to the need to break up cartels as the DOJ's highest antitrust priority. Yet existence of cartel is a structure; it is not an indication of performance. This is an important point. To say that monopoly structure is to be "prized and encouraged" because it may be performatively welfare-maximizing, while at the same time say that cartel structures are to be "severely sanctioned" because it is a structure which cannot possibly perform in a welfare-maximizing way is a non-sequitur.

Perhaps an economist or an attorney general has already come along and said this, but we must ask ourselves what reasonable distinction can be drawn between a collusive capitalist who merges, acquires, sets prices, restricts output, earns profit, (etc.) within a monopoly market structure, and a collusive capitalist who merges, acquires, sets prices, restricts output, and earns profit within a cartelized market structure? Another way to put this would be to ask, What is the difference between two capitalists, one in a monopoly structure and the other in a cartel structure, both whose "entire purpose is to avoid disruptive forces of competition"? To use John Hick's well-known phrase we can likewise ask, What is the difference between the "quiet life" of the monopolist, the "quiet life" of the cartel, and the "quiet life" of the unionized worker?

The argument goes that even if there are no other static competitors in a monopoly market, that the threat of potential competition through dynamic efficiency implores the market to become efficient. Firms may also be checked by gateway entrants from other markets who can enter the industry at the significant cost advantages. All attempts at exclusionary practice, arguably, lends itself toward greater social welfare through competition. Yet the greatest source competition, I would argue, comes from a firm's competition with the labor market. It seems this would be especially evident when there are no other market challengers.

Let me restate this last point. The labor market is the greatest source of competition, since, even if firms exclude to the point where even gateways from other markets have been exhausted, the competitive pressure from the labor market will continue to ensure revenues to capitalists do not exceed the cost of production by far. The standard microeconomic argument that "economic profits attract entrants into the market" and thus lower prices can equally be said to apply here. Instead of attracting entrants, however, it attracts greater demand for wage increases, which in this example would appear to be a form of inflation.

In short, it seems to me Barnett is having the same sort of dynamic misconceptions about collusion and the long run economy that attorney generals of an earlier era had, albeit, now applied to much greater forms of market power. Barnett and his colleagues may believe the DOJ in the 1970s had it wrong when it broke up two banks in Philadelphia with insignificant market power, yet attorney generals now show the same unfounded concern for collusive activity on a greater scale in this era. This shows the extent that the DOJ's views on dynamism reaches. Perhaps an economist or an attorney general will soon come out and say that we cannot make the analytic case against cartels for the same reasons that we cannot make the analytic case against the monopolies, as we once thought. But as of now such argument to my knowledge has not reached fruition.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Critique of Contestable Market Theory

From 1979 to 1981 there was a lot of "hit and run entry" into the airline industry. This partly influenced George Baumol in 1982 to write his restatement of the potential competition doctrine in its new form, contestable market theory. He and his colleagues believed the airline industry was one of the best examples of a "perfectly" contestable market.

In 1982 it seemed all a potential entrant into the airline carrier industry needed to do was a hire a few staff, some pilots, and lease an old plane. It did not seem very difficult. The basic assumptions of the theory were as follows:

  1. Entry into the market was free. This means there were no barriers to entry, no cost advantages for incumbents, no patents, and no product differentiation advantages.
  2. Entry was absolute. When the entrant lowers prices it undermines the incumbents revenues completely.
  3. No sunk costs were associated with entry. When there are no sunk costs, costs that cannot be recovered, then there are no barriers to exit, which again implies there are no barriers to entry.
Any move away from these assumptions would change the results dramatically. If sunk costs were greater than zero, for example, then hit and run entry would be impossible and incumbents could earner excess profits without attracting entry. If the airline carrier industry was perfectly contestable, then prices would equal average cost. This was said to be the only sustainable price since any higher prices would attracts entry. Essentially, Baumol said the industry was setting limit prices.

But, of course, entry is not free, not absolute, and there are sunk costs associated with entry.
  1. Free entry. There are more costs associated with entry than the variable costs associated with hiring labor and leasing aircraft. If incumbent firms are pricing below the entrants average costs, this is a barrier. Assuming capital markets are perfect, this would still imply greater costs. Firms with cash reserves and easy access to capital markets through networks and reputation have an absolute cost advantage. Restrictive practices at airports make it difficult to obtain landing slots. The scarcity of gate slots and bidding over them can also become barriers to entry.
  2. Absolute displacement. This assumption is highly questionable in any market. In the airline industry incumbents always have sufficient advanced notice of any impending entry to permit them to respond with price reductions. The cost advantages of incumbents become barriers to displacing their prices.
  3. Sunk costs. If some sunk costs are necessary to penetrate the market, then assumption three is false. Advertising has been identified as one of the most significant sunk costs in a market. Advertising costs cannot be recovered if the carrier is not successful. The trademarks and rights associated with this all become sunk costs, and thus barriers to exit, and ultimately, barriers to entry.
Historically, many major incumbents did not role over when the newer airlines entered the market after deregulation. Many carriers which entered the market during the early eighties have either merged or vanished. For example, Big Sky, Braniff, Gulf Air, People's Express, etc. Vanished incumbents like Pan Am and Eastern was due to direct competition with other incumbents after deregulation and cost inefficiencies in general.

The Chicago School of Economics, which Baumol was educated in, says in general that there are no barriers to entry in any market. There are only "natural barriers". Without government regulation, many entry barriers disappear. This is true. But there still significant barriers and costs (especially sunk costs) associated with almost every market entry.

Although the airline industry is not perfectly contestable, as Chicago said, the theory had a large impact on the industry. Antitrust authorities were loathe to intervene in the industry due to the popularity of the theory of contestable markets, and I think this is a good thing for the industry. Perhaps all an industry really needs is to be contestable enough to attract not potential entrants per se, but rather, substantial criticism of antitrust intervention.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

"Giantistic cooperationism"

Microsoft announced recently that it was interested in acquiring Yahoo! in an attempt to gain market shares from Google. Read Google's blog which criticizes Microsoft for exerting the same sort of "inappropriate influence" over the internet as it did with the PC in the 90s. If Yahoo! and Microsoft merge, they would effectively control most of the instant-messaging market on the net. (IM systems is not actually a big market, and if IMing becomes inter-operable, then IM users benefit.) Meanwhile Google is attempting to acquire DoubleClick through the European Union.

Criticism of antitrust legislation from "the right" argues that competition and takeover, a process that Joseph Schumpeter calls "creative destruction" and what James Brock calls "economic Darwinism", is a natural market occurrence which does not to be intervened with. There is however, criticism of antitrust from the left, although confounding "right" and "left" on this really doesn't help. I consider myself left, and I reach similar conclusions as those on the right do.

The process of monopolization are modes of securing more perfect integration, and a step in "societal evolution", said William Graham Sumner. Historical monopolists like John D. Rockefeller and pro-trust lega scholars like Robert Bork say that firms which adapt better to changing consumer preferences succeed, and those that do not eventually become "extinct". James Brock critiques their arguments by saying that the occurrence of monopoly does not imply that what led to the monopoly was competitive behavior. The distinction here is between technical monopolies and coercive monopolies.

"Creative destruction" is the process by which, if technical monopolies do obtain, the monopolists are always held to a competitive standard because newcomers in the market might be more dynamically efficient than the monopolist and thus acquire its market shares. But what happens when all dynamically efficient rivals can essentially be taken over by coercive monopolists? Is this an anti-competitive practice that we should be concerned with if we accept the long-run view of creative destruction?

Is this giantistic cooperationism?
Giantistic competition?
Giantistic coercion?

Friday, May 18, 2007

Google vs. PayPal--Power and Market Shares


I wonder how much it would take for eBay's powersellers (who sell at least $3000 a month) to switch from using BidPay and PayPal to Google's new Checkout system.

PayPal was founded in 1998 first a way of moving money between Palm Pilots. On eBay it was so successful was it that in 2002 the auction site ditched its own payments service, Billpoint, and paid $1.5 billion to bring PayPal under its wing. PayPal isn't that innovative. So I doubt it will be in for the long-run. It does have low fraud rates, which are around a third of the norm for online merchants. Its latest security initiative is a digital key fob, linked to customers' accounts, whose security code changes every 30 seconds.

But safety is nothing without convenience. Hence the new platforms, such as fund transfers with Skype, now eBay's web-telephony arm and mobile phones (in beta testing). PayPal also found a way to use PayPal on websites that do not have a “Pay with PayPal” button: a sort of virtual debit card that pulls money from the user's PayPal account using a 16-digit number, which changes with each transaction.

But Google is just too powerful. I read some reviews by eBayers who said they would be happy to switch over to Checkout. But eBay was contractually stopped from signing Checkout onto its list of approved vendors, or so I heard. Another article said eBay signed onto Checkout anyway. And for now Checkout only offers a way of transferring money without actually storing it. In the long run I expect Google to take the market, and I expect Yahoo! or some other popular net service to buy out PayPal.