This election is effectively over.
This election is effectively over.
Donald Trump ran the first convention in history where more people came out saying they would NOT vote for the candidate than they did going in. The governor of the home state of his convention, a member of his chosen party, refused to attend and offered some choice comments about the nominee and his antics. Virtually all major figures in his party either did not come to the convention or else offered the most tepid possible words of praise. One key figure, a former opponent, conspicuously used his speech in prime time to make clear that he would not endorse the nominee.
That was just last week.
In the days since the convention, Trump has managed to offend families of those who lost relatives in US wars. To women who experience harassment in the work place, he says just get a new job. His daughter intimates that when dealing with harassment it really helps to be the boss’s daughter.
His fundraising has lately improved, with an influx of small donations from his devoted followers. But it is very little and very late. The Koch brothers, yes the dark money guys, have said that they are washing their hands of the presidential election and will focus only on holding on to the Senate and House. A couple of unquestionably successful businessmen who could buy Donald Trump in a heartbeat – Michael Bloomberg and Warren Buffett – have made it unmistakably clear that Trump is terribly flawed not only as a candidate but as a businessman. His refusal to release his tax returns speaks volumes.
The senior party officials who bit their tongues and endorsed him during the convention in the name of party unity have been forced to criticize him for his comments, and he, in turn, says he can’t endorse them for reelection. His VP candidate disagrees. The entire Republican establishment of security experts, who brought us the policies of Bush and Cheney, have officially withdrawn their support. One of those has bemoaned in the NY Times that he now finds himself in the Dumb Party. The most senior Republican pundit has ostentatiously left the Republican Party after a lifetime. A Republican congressman has proclaimed he will vote for Hillary Clinton. Defections are beginning to cascade.
There seems to some reluctance to draw the obvious conclusion from these facts – that Trump is certain to lose this election.
There is dismay that Trump supporters forgive all and denounce criticism as a conspiracy. But that thirty percent of the US electorate are firmly with him and would never be swayed. In Trump’s own words, they would vote for him if he committed murder on the street in broad daylight. They are angry at the changes in this country, and they rightfully feel betrayed by decades of politicians (mostly Republican) who promised them everything but delivered almost nothing. They are also aware of the utter inaction on the part of the Tea Party and others to deal with their issues. Instead, they have seen nothing but gridlock in Washington. The denunciation of Tea Party candidates in the Republican primaries yesterday in Kansas makes it clear that this is not just a partisan issue.
Trump supporters are really concerned with only one thing: throw the bums out – all of them – and shake the government to its very foundations. They are fed up, and on the basis of hard experience they have concluded that politicians of all stripes are not to be trusted. They don’t care that Trump is offensive and outrageous. They don’t always like it, but it is a price they are willing to pay for the kind of clean sweep that they believe is the only answer. They do not like Muslims, immigrants, non-whites generally, and they reject the comfortable elites in their ivory towers who keep patronizing them and telling them they don’t know what they’re talking about. They distrust government, period.
Given their experience with successive administrations, they do know what they’re talking about. But the answer to their problems is not Donald Trump, and even the committed core is likely to have some doubts by the time we get to election day. Their numbers are not growing.
The 100-day delay between the conventions and the elections is a blessing. It works against a candidate whose instant appeal is riveting but whose staying power, when examined more closely, fades. The erosion of Donald Trump has only just begun. It scarcely matters what Hillary Clinton does between now and then, so long as she doesn’t get in the way of Trump’s implosion. In my view, she might offer some programs specifically designed to respond to the disaffected minority on the right – and then follow through with them even when they don’t vote for her.
But this election is all about Trump. He is on full display, all day, every day. And he is not gaining ground with the ten or twenty percent of the uncommitted voters in the center who are the ultimate target in this or any American election. If those in the middle were dubious before, they will become grievously offended as time goes on. Trump has been told by his family and advisers what he has to do to win this group. And he is simply incapable of doing it. He won’t. And he won’t win.
In fact, at some point it may begin to become clear that his brand, which is the very essence of who and what he is, is being irretrievable tarnished. After this, who is going to do a deal with Trump? Who is going to risk not being paid? Who will pay a premium to rent his name for a building or a golf course? Who will hire him to perform on reality TV?
At that point, Trump will have to decide what is more important: his campaign or his brand?
The possibility that he will withdraw, no doubt claiming the system is irredeemably rigged against him, cannot be dismissed. That would send us into truly unexplored territory.
But for those of you lying awake at night worrying about a Trump presidency, turn over and get a good night’s sleep. This election is a moment of truth like nothing we have seen in our lifetimes. It is a unique opportunity to shape the future of our country in the direction of more democracy and more justice. Yes, Hillary needs to be pushed in that direction. Let her hear your voice.
Use your vote. Don’t waste it.
But this is no moment for despair.
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2 months ago • 2 notes