Legal changes driven by public outcry over cases such as the murder of Jill Meagher have driven an almost 70 per cent increase in Victoria's prison population in the past decade, despite only a small increase in the crime rate.
New research, released by the Sentencing Advisory Council overnight, suggests the state's booming prison population is largely being driven by community fears about violent criminals being let out on bail.
In 2013, the Victorian government began introducing sweeping changes to parole and bail laws after the murder of Jill Meagher by Adrian Bayley, who was on parole at the time.
Sentencing Advisory Council chairman Arie Freiberg said courts were increasingly "risk adverse" about releasing people on bail, which was driving up the number of prisoners remanded in jail.
Police were also charging more people, and more were being sentenced for offences that might have once attracted a community-based punishment.
"There is a kneejerk reaction, sometimes, that we can imprison our way out of crime," Professor Freiberg said.
"I think the courts and police are responding to the clamour in the community for tougher sentences. I think the courts are responding."
Victoria's preoccupation with prison is a costly one, too: it costs $297 per day to lock up each prisoner (compared with the Australian average cost of $224), and the state's prison budget is forecast to reach $1.1 billion next year.
With increasing pressures on the prison system, many prisoners are unable to make their way to court for their appearances.
Corrections Victoria has been forced to pay costs for failing to bring 689 people to court between 2013 and 2016, costing the state almost $529,000.
But according to the Sentencing Advisory Council, Victoria's attempts to jail its way out of a crime problem could actually be making matters worse.
The state's prison population has grown by 67 per cent, despite the crime rate increasing by just 4 per cent between 2006 and 2015.
But, the council says, with crowded jails and recent changes to parole laws, more prisoners are leaving prison without having completed behavioural change programs, putting them at a greater risk of reoffending.
The swelling prison population is largely due to a rise in the number of prisoners being kept in jail on remand – or before their cases are finalised.
Since 2006, the remand population has grown by 154 per cent.
Prisoners now spend an average of seven months on remand before being sentenced.
Many of these people, the council says, could be in jail because of shifts in community attitudes to the "risk perception" of releasing prisoners on bail, which are being adopted by magistrates and judges.
The data shows that of people serving a jail sentence, most are there for committing a crime against another person – rather than property-related offences – and many of these are sexual assaults.
Of sentenced prisoners, most were in jail for crimes against the person – which includes assault, sexual assault and murder – and of those, most were in jail for sexual assaults.
The number of crimes against the person offences has skyrocketed in Victoria, from 23,696 in 2006 to 32,879 in 2015, with the number of people charged with those offences up by 41 per cent.
Professor Freiberg said there was evidence much of this was family violence, and he was concerned the use of ice was driving an upsurge in violent crime by drug users.