By Colin Kruger
Having a hard time making your Melbourne Cup pick? Maybe you need a bit of corporate knowledge to give you that winning edge.
And who could pick a better place to start for advice than the wealthy Melbourne businessman with four Cup victories to his name, Lloyd Williams, who insisted this week that money can't buy you success on the track.
"I don't think when you talk about Melbourne Cups or 3200-metre races that it is just down to the wealthiest. The race is littered with examples of horses from obscurity coming and winning our race," said Williams.
This advice has come a bit late for our bankrupt former billionaire, Nathan Tinkler, but it is an interesting theory given Williams and Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum have their hands on nine of the 24 horses that will line up at the starter's gate for the big race.
Four-time Melbourne Cup winner Lloyd Williams.Credit: Sebastian Costanzo
Does that mean we can eliminate more than one-third of the field from contention?
If you do like Williams' track record, but need a wild card to separate his four nags in the big race, music industry legend Michael Gudinski also has a stake in Almandin, as does Rip Curl founder Brian Singer, and Quiksilver founder Alan Green.
Paula Dwyer, the chairman of wagering giant Tabcorp, is backing another of Williams' starters, Assign.
Colin McKenna of the Midfield Group is principal owner of another Cup favourite, Jameka. The fact that Midfield is a meat processing business might give this four-year-old mare extra incentive to succeed.
Spare a thought for Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, centre, who has come up empty handed after nearly two decades, despite outlaying copious amounts of cash.Credit: Vince Caligiuri
Myer boss Richard Umbers certainly thinks so, it is his pick for the race.
But who are our big corporate names backing to win the big one?
ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott is sticking to his roots and picked Pentathlon - an 80:1 Kiwi outsider with a Kiwi coach.
But if you want to get more analytical about your pick, Macquarie Group's research team have continued their Melbourne Cup tradition of using quantitative analysis to pick the winner.
"For punters who are out for gold and glory, we use the unbiased odds calculated by our Halpha model to pick horses with the highest likelihood of winning. Our top three are Hartnell (9.6%), Jameka (8.9%) and Big Orange (6.6%)," said the five Macquarie analysts, who sport two PhDs between them.
"However, for value investors out for a bargain, the most undervalued horses are Assign, Curren Mirotic and Almoonqith. We think these horses are more likely to win than their odds suggest."
But even this has its limits as the quants acknowledged last year.
"Overall profits remain healthy, however, results have gone against us in recent years, providing a timely reminder that this is still gambling," said the team last year.
Having said that, Macquarie's quants still managed to pick the third and fourth placegetters last year despite everyone getting upstaged by rank outsider Prince of Penzance.
And if you have had a hard time picking winners in the Melbourne Cup, spare a thought for Sheikh Mohammed.
The United Arab Emirates Prime Minister has come up empty handed after nearly two decades, despite outlaying copious amounts of cash - $1.1 billion, according to The Australian Financial Review.
So despite the Sheikh having an unprecedented five thoroughbreds lining up at the starter's gate for the big race, CBD's tip is that we might be able to up your odds by staying away from his nags - including everyone's favourite: Hartnell.
Even if he finally gets the win, most of the money for the big race comes from Cup sponsor Emirates Airlines, which was set up by Sheikh Mohammed.
Got a tip? ckruger@fairfaxmedia.com.au