The drama is the problem for the Government
The Turnbull Government could actually end up with a slightly easier Senate to deal with if the High Court now decides the Family First's Bob Day was elected unlawfully.
Either way, its the drama that's the killer, because a clown show in Parliament is usually blamed on the Government.
The Senate has been thrown into turmoil by a furious dispute over the July election that puts a crucial vote in play, as the government seeks a High Court ruling on whether former Family First senator Bob Day breached the Constitution when running for re-election.
Senate decisions on major government reforms are in doubt as Labor and the Coalition await a ruling that could trigger a recount on the grounds that Mr Day held a financial interest linked to the commonwealth and should have been disqualified...
The concerns over Mr Day’s financial arrangements came to a head yesterday when he resigned from the Senate, triggering the disclosure of a long-running inquiry into his financial link to a property that houses his electoral office and receives rental payments from the commonwealth.
Special Minister of State Scott Ryan terminated the lease on the Adelaide property on October 7 after receiving advice the deal could breach section 44 of the Constitution, which forbids “indirect pecuniary interests” between MPs and the commonwealth. The Australian learned last night that Mr Day knew of the concerns surrounding the lease, which was signed last December, and officials had rung the alarm and ensured no rent was paid.
Mr Day said last night he had not breached the Constitution. “No rent was ever paid,” he told The Australian. “In my case, I had no contract or agreement with the crown. I had an agreement with someone else, who had an agreement with the crown.”
The investigation appears certain to trigger a Senate referral to the High Court next week, cruelling plans by Family First to choose a successor to take Mr Day’s place on November 21 — in time to vote on government bills before the end of the year.
The government is confident of winning support for the restoration of the Australian Building and Construction Commission, calculating it will need eight of the 10 remaining crossbenchers rather than nine of the 11 crossbenchers prior to yesterday’s events.
With 75 seats in the upper house pending a High Court decision, the government will be able to secure a majority by combining its 30 votes with eight from the crossbench. It hopes to legislate the ABCC with four votes from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, three from the Nick Xenophon Team and one from either Derryn Hinch or the LDP’s David Leyonhjelm.
The delay in getting Day's replacement means Hinch and Leyonhjelm get marginally more bargaining power on this bill.
Long-term, though, the Government could get either a marginally harder or easier Senate to work with, if the High Court rules against Day and orders a recount of the Senate vote in South Australia.
With Day, who won the final 12th Senate seat in South Australia, excluded and his preferences distributed, his seat is most likely to be taken over either by the candidate who came 13th (Labor) or 14th (One Nation). The odds suggest One Nation will get most of Day's preferences and win the seat.
One Nation would then have five Senate seats. Its support is already essential if the Government wants to get legislation past a Labor/Greens bloc in the Senate, so having it take Day's seat means the Government would no longer need to make a separate deal with Family First as well to get those five votes. A bit easier, then.
On the other hand, if Labor takes the seat, the Government's job of getting things through the Senate against Labor and the Greens becomes a bit harder. It would need the agreement of nine of the remaining 10 senators - One Nation's four, Nick Xenophon's three, David Leyonhelm, Derryn Hinch and Jaqui Lambie. Until now it needed nine of 12, the above plus Day.
UPDATE
A One Nation win would be extremely useful to One Nation. A fifth member would give it party status and more resources:
Former mechanic and soldier Steven Burgess could become a surprise fifth senator for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation under a raft of possibilities if the High Court orders a recount of the South Australian Senate voting.
Experts were last night unable to predict who would win the vacancy if Bob Day’s election as a Family First senator on July 2 was ruled invalid.
Mr Day’s running mate, Kenyan-born Lucy Gichuhi, could be a contender while former Liberal senator Sean Edwards and former Labor senator Anne McEwen would come back into the race.