Favourite Hartnell is right horse, with right weight, to win 2016 Melbourne Cup

On ratings, he wins the race if he runs up to his Turnbull Stakes form.

But will he run 3200m? Is he over the top? Did the Cox Plate expose his weakness?

If he wins, it will be easy to say in hindsight “that was obvious’’. Equally, if he gets rolled, you will hear that the writing was on the wall.

It is interesting to line up Hartnell’s Cox Plate performance with other modern day Melbourne Cup winners that came through the race.

Since 1994, six Cup winners have run in the Plate.

Saintly (1996) and Makybe Diva (2005) both completed the double.

Jeune (1994) was a big flop at the Valley, beaten nine lengths. He then backed up in the Mackinnon and ran second, but was still out of favour with punters and won the Cup at $16.

Lloyd Williams’ pair Efficient and Green Moon had long been fancied for the Cup.

But after both were beaten 6.5 lengths in the Cox Plate, their Cup prices ballooned to $17 and $20 respectively.

Fiorente (2013) was a close third in the Cox Plate and started $7 favourite in the Cup.

Hartnell finished second but the beaten margin of eight lengths puts him ahead of only Jeune on that score.

In Hartnell’s favour, it is fair to say Winx would have had a decent margin on Fiorente’s conqueror Shamus Award as well.

In Hartnell’s wake was dual Group 1 winner Yankee Rose and Vadamos, a high-class Group 1 winner in Europe.

It is unlikely the Melbourne Cup will be run at the same breakneck speed the Cox Plate was and clearly Hartnell has a preference to the wider stretches of Flemington.

He was a winner over 3200m in Europe before coming to Australia, but overraced in front when odds-on in the Sydney Cup and then in last year’s Melbourne Cup settled back and was never a factor.

So the distance query is a legitimate one, but there is little doubt he is going lengths better now than he was last year.

It is a big challenge for John O’Shea and James McDonald, but I believe they have the right horse, with the right weight, to achieve the result.

Originally published as Hartnell is right horse for Cup