Punter’s guide to international raiders hunting Melbourne Cup glory

Not only do you have to try to assess the respective merits of the horses we have racing locally, but then factor in the huge number of runners that have not competed here in the lead-up to our big race.

History shows it is very difficult to step off the plane and win the Cup first-up, with Vintage Crop in 1993 the only horse to achieve that feat.

Every other international winner – Media Puzzle, Delta Blues, Americain, Dunaden and Protectionist – has used a lead-up race in Australia as the springboard to Cup success.

Recent results suggest it is only a matter of time before that changes.

In seven of the past eight years, an international that has not run in the traditional lead-up races has finished second in the Cup, most notably the public favourite Red Cadeaux, who did it three times.

On Tuesday, the Cup features seven runners trying to go one better than those predecessors, while there are another four internationals who have already run here this spring.

Racing Victoria’s handicapper Greg Carpenter is perhaps the best man in the country to assess the respective merits of the internationals.

He said the quality of this year’s internationals was as good as any other year.

“The Group 1 staying race in Ireland is the St Leger and we have the winner of that (Wicklow Brave), the Ebor is the most competitive handicap race in Europe and we have the winner in Heartbreak City, and Big Orange has won two important races in Europe this year, so the European contingent is as strong as ever,” Carpenter said.

“The Japanese horse (Curren Mirotic) is a bit of an enigma but he has raced well twice in their best staying race, the Tenno Sho. It’s a strong international challenge.”

Here are Carpenter’s thoughts on the raiders:

Big Orange

He won the same two races last year on the way through to the Melbourne Cup where he led before running fifth to Prince Of Penzance. That was the first trip to Australia for trainer ­Michael Bell.

Big Orange came here last year rated 116 and the European handicappers have now got him at 117. The collective view is that he is a marginally better horse this year than in 2015.

Curren Mirotic

A horse that mixes his form and has not been able to win for a long time but with the right circumstances over a trip, he is very effective. He was very difficult to handicap because he has not won for so long.

Japan’s best staying race is the Tenno Sho and Curren Mirotic ran third in that last year behind Gold Ship and Fame Game, and was beaten in a bob of the head this year by Kitasan Black, who is one of the best stayers in the world.

Wicklow Brave

Trainer Willie Mullins brought Simenon out here in 2013, who had a lesser profile than this horse and ran fourth. Last year Mullins ran second with Max Dynamite and it is clear Wicklow Brave’s form is as strong as Max Dynamite’s was.

You have to give this horse every respect, given the record of the trainer in the Melbourne Cup. The general view of people going to Werribee is the horse is in terrific form. If the Irish handicapper is right with his rating of 118 and he runs to that level on Tuesday, Wicklow Brave will be hard to beat.

Bondi Beach

This year he won his first two races well in pretty soft company, then in my view had obvious reasons why he was unable to win his last two. In one he was finishing better than anything in the race when third and then at his last start, Bondi Beach was held up in the straight and when he got out, finished the race off.

He has obviously had a preparation that has been targeted at this race. With the Melbourne focus, Bondi Beach has not run in the major races this year and the 2015 Cup is the only blemish in his book – and last year was a messy race.

Heartbreak City

Very interesting. Trainer Tony Martin has a fierce reputation in Ireland and England for getting horses into handicap races off winning marks. This year, Heartbreak City not only got into the Ebor with a winning mark but used a claiming apprentice and won easily. Before the Ebor, he ran twice over the hurdles and won both of them. He is lightly raced and half of his racing has been over the jumps. And 53kg is a winnable weight if he can run to his international handicap of 113.

Beautiful Romance

We have had a few European mares run in the Cup, with the best of them Dermot Weld’s mare Profound Beauty. Beautiful Romance is a Group 2 winner over 2100m and she ran third to Simple Verse in last year’s 2400m Group 1 mares’ race on Champion Stakes Day. She has had just 10 career runs and this is her first at 3200m. Will be difficult for her to win this race and that is reflected in the weights.

Secret Number

Secret Number is an enormously talented horse that we have seen very little of in the past 12 months. He has only had one run since he ran second to Dandino in last year’s Queen Elizabeth. He ran in a Listed race in Scotland and he won it comfortably. Off that preparation, one start in a year, it would be an extraordinary performance for Secret Number to win the Cup. He rarely runs out of the placings but has had very few runs in the last two years. I find him very hard to assess where he fits in the scheme of things.

Raced in Australia this spring: Exospheric, Grey Lion, Qewy, Oceanographer

Qewy and Grey Lion were both good at Geelong and Oceanographer was also good but they are lesser performed horses and that is reflected in the weights.

The penalty for Qewy was the same as Dunaden and Americain but Qewy is not as well performed as that pair were.

Exospheric arrived with a mark of 117 and that is pretty much what he ran to in the Caulfield Cup. He is a lightly raced European four-year-old who is enormously talented. Whether he can replicate that form first time out at 3200m is the test for him on Tuesday.

Originally published as Punter’s guide to overseas raiders