A Tale of Two Interpretations of the Economy

• Report rights infringement
• published: 09 Jul 2014
• views: 97

Visit http://www.smaulgld.com/tale-two-interpretations-of-economic-data/ for more information on this podcast Podcast Summary: 0:00-3:54 Introduction 3:54-4:45 Review of the five long years of the Fed's Quantitative Easing (QE) program and Ben Bernanke's comments in 2009 regarding when the economy "begins to recover" the Fed could halt the program and start to raise interest rates. 4:45-5:50 discussion of how the Fed is starting to characterize the economy as "normal" Yellen noted that the stock market valuations are normal and that interest rate policy won't be used to fight bubbles. 5:50-8:02 discussion how the main stream media continues to insist that the negative first quarter growth was attributable almost solely to bad weather. AP,(Associated Propaganda), Fortune CNBC and Reuters and that the recent non farms payroll report is evidence of an accelerating economic and labor market recovery. Examples given on the extreme positive spin the main stream media outlet put on the non farm payroll report that purported to create 288K jobs in May. 8:02-9:48 discussion of how Zero Hedge, Doctor Paul Craig Roberts and David Stockman point out the weakness in the labor market that the non farm jobs report contained -- 840k new part time jobs created but 523k full time jobs lost pointing to a part time economy. not a healthy labor market. They also point out the low quality jobs being created and the declining labor force participation rate. 9:48- 14:28 discussion of how the main stream media will say anything to promote the concept of an economic and jobs recovery despite evidence to the contrary. 14:28 discussion how the Fed and the media tout a rising stock market as evidence of a recovery when companies' stock prices are rising mostly because sovereign funds have trillion of dollars invested in the stock market and companies have been buying back their own shares at a record pace. Profits are up with Price earnings at "normal" levels but price to sales ratios are at historic highs as corporate profits are not being driven by increased sales but by expense and outstanding share reductions. Discussion of the law of small numbers as it applies to the labor and the housing market. 16:15-20:28 Discussion as to (as predicted) housing would be removed from the "recovery" narrative of the media and the Fed. Discussion of the new home market and comparisons to the new home markets of the 1960′s and 1970′s. 20:28-30:00 Discussion as to how the media is finally catching on that millennials don't have jobs and can't buy homes. Smaulgld covered this top in April 2013 in "Student Loans and Unemployment are Holding Back the Economy and Real Estate Market" When the main stream media was touting millennials as a potential driver of the housing market "recovery" last summer, Smaulgld dismissed these predictions as Great Pumpkin style fantasies in "Waiting on Household Formation". Discussion of the lack of investigative reporting. Discussion of the new home market vs. the existing home market. Discussion of how a drop in the number of unemployment benefits being paid is not a sign of an improving job market. 30:00-33:45 discussion as to how long the low interest rate environment can last. The media's positive economic recovery narrative does not square with the negative reader comments to their stories. Discussion of the narrowness of the number of people participating in the stock market boom and housing price boom. 33:45-37.20 discussion of the lost decades of economic growth in Japan and their recent increase in inflation. Discussion of what might sink the global economy. 37:20-44:00 Discussion of how deeply involved governments are in all markets to the point they are eliminating price discovery. Discussion of gold and silver manipulation and speculative stocks with large stashes of cash from IPOs. Discussion of how long speculative bubbles last -- sometime years. 44:00-45:40 discussion of the issues that part time workers face. 45:40-54: discussion of how the central banks are claiming that low growth may be a permanent feature of the economy and therefore the need to keep central banks in charge-things would be worse if they were not involved. Discussion of the lack of value that banking and regulations provide to an economy and consumers. Everyone Should Work at the Post Office! Where Does Wealth Come From- The Government, of course 54:20-56:00 discussion of guaranteed government jobs and income. Discussion of the mentality that some have that money and wealth comes from the government-they print it don't they? Will the government can bail out students, colleges and newspapers. 56:00 people should think twice about sending their kids to college. Discussion of surveys, including one by the Federal Reserve on the value of a college education. Why Keynesian economics is taught in college- the apparatus pays the professors' salaries.

A Tale of Two Interpretations of the Economy

• Report rights infringement
• published: 09 Jul 2014
• views: 97

Visit http://www.smaulgld.com/tale-two-interpretations-of-economic-data/ for more information on this podcast Podcast Summary: 0:00-3:54 Introduction 3:54-4:45 Review of the five long years of the Fed's Quantitative Easing (QE) program and Ben Bernanke's comments in 2009 regarding when the economy "begins to recover" the Fed could halt the program and start to raise interest rates. 4:45-5:50 discussion of how the Fed is starting to characterize the economy as "normal" Yellen noted that the stock market valuations are normal and that interest rate policy won't be used to fight bubbles. 5:50-8:02 discussion how the main stream media continues to insist that the negative first quarter growth was attributable almost solely to bad weather. AP,(Associated Propaganda), Fortune CNBC and Reuters and that the recent non farms payroll report is evidence of an accelerating economic and labor market recovery. Examples given on the extreme positive spin the main stream media outlet put on the non farm payroll report that purported to create 288K jobs in May. 8:02-9:48 discussion of how Zero Hedge, Doctor Paul Craig Roberts and David Stockman point out the weakness in the labor market that the non farm jobs report contained -- 840k new part time jobs created but 523k full time jobs lost pointing to a part time economy. not a healthy labor market. They also point out the low quality jobs being created and the declining labor force participation rate. 9:48- 14:28 discussion of how the main stream media will say anything to promote the concept of an economic and jobs recovery despite evidence to the contrary. 14:28 discussion how the Fed and the media tout a rising stock market as evidence of a recovery when companies' stock prices are rising mostly because sovereign funds have trillion of dollars invested in the stock market and companies have been buying back their own shares at a record pace. Profits are up with Price earnings at "normal" levels but price to sales ratios are at historic highs as corporate profits are not being driven by increased sales but by expense and outstanding share reductions. Discussion of the law of small numbers as it applies to the labor and the housing market. 16:15-20:28 Discussion as to (as predicted) housing would be removed from the "recovery" narrative of the media and the Fed. Discussion of the new home market and comparisons to the new home markets of the 1960′s and 1970′s. 20:28-30:00 Discussion as to how the media is finally catching on that millennials don't have jobs and can't buy homes. Smaulgld covered this top in April 2013 in "Student Loans and Unemployment are Holding Back the Economy and Real Estate Market" When the main stream media was touting millennials as a potential driver of the housing market "recovery" last summer, Smaulgld dismissed these predictions as Great Pumpkin style fantasies in "Waiting on Household Formation". Discussion of the lack of investigative reporting. Discussion of the new home market vs. the existing home market. Discussion of how a drop in the number of unemployment benefits being paid is not a sign of an improving job market. 30:00-33:45 discussion as to how long the low interest rate environment can last. The media's positive economic recovery narrative does not square with the negative reader comments to their stories. Discussion of the narrowness of the number of people participating in the stock market boom and housing price boom. 33:45-37.20 discussion of the lost decades of economic growth in Japan and their recent increase in inflation. Discussion of what might sink the global economy. 37:20-44:00 Discussion of how deeply involved governments are in all markets to the point they are eliminating price discovery. Discussion of gold and silver manipulation and speculative stocks with large stashes of cash from IPOs. Discussion of how long speculative bubbles last -- sometime years. 44:00-45:40 discussion of the issues that part time workers face. 45:40-54: discussion of how the central banks are claiming that low growth may be a permanent feature of the economy and therefore the need to keep central banks in charge-things would be worse if they were not involved. Discussion of the lack of value that banking and regulations provide to an economy and consumers. Everyone Should Work at the Post Office! Where Does Wealth Come From- The Government, of course 54:20-56:00 discussion of guaranteed government jobs and income. Discussion of the mentality that some have that money and wealth comes from the government-they print it don't they? Will the government can bail out students, colleges and newspapers. 56:00 people should think twice about sending their kids to college. Discussion of surveys, including one by the Federal Reserve on the value of a college education. Why Keynesian economics is taught in college- the apparatus pays the professors' salaries.