Public sector specialists have warned that hundreds of extra schools may have to be built in England to cope with the school population bulge.
Official figures suggest there will be 730,000 more school age children by 2020 than there were last year, and the Scape group, which advises local authorities on new buildings, said this amounts to 24,287 more classrooms.
But ministers said there is “significant capacity still in the system… before new places need to be created”. A Department for Education spokeswoman said local authorities would continue to create thousands more school places in coming years, with 600,000 additional pupil places created in the five years to May 2015.
However, the Local Government Association, which represents 370 councils in England, said its own research suggests that although existing schools have been expanding to cope with the bulge, many have almost run out of space. And once it is no longer possible to increase the size of existing schools, new ones will be needed.
Department for Education figures project 8.6% more primary school pupils in England by 2020 – but the biggest increase will be as children move into secondary school where pupil numbers are expected to rise by 12%. Scape said this could amount to more than 2,000 new schools.
“The country will soon start to feel the full weight of the impending boom in pupil numbers. A radical new wave of school-building must be a top priority for the government,” said chief executive Mark Robinson.
Scape said demand for places will vary between regions, with London, the south-east and east of England feeling the most pressure.
The LGA has long been critical of the government’s emphasis on free schools as the solution to the crisis and says Scape’s calculations support their argument that powers to open new schools should be returned to councils. They also want academy schools, outside local authority control, to expand to make sure every child has a place.
“Councils have a statutory duty to ensure every child has a school place available to them but find themselves in the difficult position of not being able to ensure schools, including academies, expand,” said Richard Watts, chairman of the LGA’s Children and Young People Board.