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Data Points is the home of insightful, data-driven political analysis. It features the latest results from NBC News' national and state polling as well analysis of voter file and other political data, all in one place.

The stories featured here draw on data to help explain the numbers behind political behavior or events.


Key Stories

Andrew Harnik / AP
Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead

Poll: GOP Fractured as Clinton Maintains Solid Lead

MIKE BLAKE / Reuters
Poll: Clinton Won Final Debate; 53% of Republicans Would Accept Election Results Poll: Clinton Won Final Debate; 53% of Republicans Would Accept Election Results Poll: Clinton Won Final Debate; 53% of Republicans Would Accept Election Results

Poll: 45% of Republicans Might Not Accept Election Results

Nati Harnik / AP
Over 1.5 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast in 2016 Presidential Election Over 1.5 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast in 2016 Presidential Election Over 1.5 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast in 2016 Presidential Election

Here's How Many Votes Have Already Been Cast

Spencer Platt / Getty Images
Poll: More Voters Say Trump Doesn't Respect Women After Lewd Tape Surfaces Poll: More Voters Say Trump Doesn't Respect Women After Lewd Tape Surfaces Poll: More Voters Say Trump Doesn't Respect Women After Lewd Tape Surfaces

Poll: Majority of Voters Say Trump Doesn't Respect Women

Volkan Furuncu / Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Poll: LGBT Voters Support Clinton Over Trump Poll: LGBT Voters Support Clinton Over Trump Poll: LGBT Voters Support Clinton Over Trump

Poll: LGBT Voters Support Clinton Over Trump

John Raoux / AP
Poll: How Third-Party Candidates Could Affect the 2016 Race Poll: How Third-Party Candidates Could Affect the 2016 Race Poll: How Third-Party Candidates Could Affect the 2016 Race

Poll: How 3rd-Party Candidates Could Affect the 2016 Race

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Data Points

Republicans Trust Trump Over Ryan to Lead GOP

While Trump has criticized House Speaker Paul Ryan for his negative response to several of Trump's controversial statements, a full third (34 percent) of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say they would trust Ryan more to lead the Republican Party than the party's current presidential nominee.

Among Trump's own supporters, a quarter say they would trust Ryan more to lead the party. Among Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson's supporters, 80 percent say they would trust Ryan more. This number is potentially consequential given Johnson's position as a potential spoiler-candidate in several critical states.

Majority of Republicans Believe GOP Will Be Fractured In November

As several prominent GOP party leaders and down-ballot Republican contenders scramble to figure out the potential impact of a Clinton victory in their respective states, 74 percent of likely voters overall say that the GOP is divided and will remain so through the general election in November—only 4 percent say the Republican Party is united now. This is in stark contrast to the perception of the Democratic Party -54 percent of voters overall say that the Democratic Party is united now.

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, 57 percent say that their party is divided and will not unite by November.

Early Vote in Battleground States by Party

As of October 24, Democratic-affiliated voters have outpaced Republican-affiliated voters in 9 of 12 battleground states including Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. In Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, more Republican-affiliated voters have cast ballots so far.

Over 6.5 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast

As of October 24, 2016, over 6.5 million votes have been cast in the 2016 Presidential Election nationwide. In 12 key battleground states, 4,270,596 early votes have been cast.

Poll: Majority of Republicans Would Accept Election Results

Among Republican and Republican-leaning likely voters, 45 percent said they might not accept the election as legitimate if their candidate doesn't win, including 18 percent who said they would definitely not accept the outcome. A majority of Republicans—53 percent—said they would accept the results of the election if their candidate loses.

An overwhelming majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters—82 percent—said they would definitely or probably accept the election.

Poll: 46% Say Clinton Won Third Debate

Hillary Clinton won the third and final debate of the 2016 Presidential Election cycle by a 9-point margin over Donald Trump, according to likely voters who watched or followed coverage of Wednesday's face-off. A 46 percent plurality said Clinton won the debate, while 37 percent said Trump won. Another 17 percent said that neither candidate won the debate. Clinton's final victory over the Republican nominee marks a decisive sweep of all three debates.

Nearly 4.4 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast

As of October 21, 2016, nearly 4.4 million votes have been cast nationwide. In 12 crucial battleground states, nearly 3 million votes have been cast.

Early Vote in Battleground States by Party

As of October 19, more Democratic-affiliated voters have cast early ballots in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. In Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, more Republican-affiliated voters have cast ballots so far.

In Florida, an equal proportion of Democratic-affiliated and Republican-affiliated voters have cast early ballots

Over 2.5 Million Early Votes Have Now Been Cast

As of October 19, over 2.5 million early votes have been cast nationwide. Among twelve battleground states, over 1.5 million voters have already cast ballots in the 2016 Presidential Election.

Clinton Outperforms Trump Among Women of All Age Groups, Education Levels

Gender issues have been at the forefront of the campaign this election cycle and after a particularly tumultuous week, it is interesting to see how wide the persistent gender gap has become.

According to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll, Hillary Clinton currently enjoys an 18-point margin over Trump among likely women voters overall. Trump leads Clinton among likely men voters by 7 points.

The Democratic candidate leads Trump among women of all age groups and education levels. Women with college degrees support her by a 37-point margin (62 percent to 25 percent) and women without college degrees support her by a narrower 6-point margin (46 percent to 40 percent).


Related

Andrew Harnik / AP
Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead

Poll: GOP Fractured as Clinton Maintains Solid Lead

Andrew Harnik / AP
Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead Poll: Republican Party Fractured as Hillary Clinton Maintains Solid Lead

Poll: GOP Fractured as Clinton Maintains Solid Lead

MIKE BLAKE / Reuters
Poll: Clinton Won Final Debate; 53% of Republicans Would Accept Election Results Poll: Clinton Won Final Debate; 53% of Republicans Would Accept Election Results Poll: Clinton Won Final Debate; 53% of Republicans Would Accept Election Results

Poll: 45% of Republicans Might Not Accept Election Results

AFP; AP
Poll: Clinton Maintains Solid National Lead Poll: Clinton Maintains Solid National Lead Poll: Clinton Maintains Solid National Lead

Poll: Clinton Maintains Solid National Lead

Nati Harnik / AP
Over 1.5 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast in 2016 Presidential Election Over 1.5 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast in 2016 Presidential Election Over 1.5 Million Votes Have Now Been Cast in 2016 Presidential Election

Here's How Many Votes Have Already Been Cast

ROBYN BECK / AFP - Getty Images
Poll: Likely Voters Say Clinton Won Second Presidential Debate Poll: Likely Voters Say Clinton Won Second Presidential Debate Poll: Likely Voters Say Clinton Won Second Presidential Debate

Poll: Likely Voters Say Clinton Won Second Presidential Debate

Poll: More Voters Say Trump Doesn't Respect Women After Lewd Tape Surfaces

Poll: Vice Presidential Candidates Mike Pence, Tim Kaine Largely Unknown to Voters

Poll: Hillary Clinton Holds National Lead Over Donald Trump

Poll: Majority of Voters Say Clinton Won First Presidential Debate

Poll: Clinton Leads Trump Among Likely Voters Ahead of First Debate

Poll: LGBT Voters Support Clinton Over Trump

Early Get-Out-the-Vote Efforts Favor Clinton: Ballot Requests in Battleground States

Hillary Clinton Regains Momentum Against Donald Trump: Poll

Poll: Why Suburban Voters Will Be Pivotal in Presidential Race

Poll: How Third-Party Candidates Could Affect the 2016 Race

Poll: Clinton's Lead Narrows Among Independents, Voters Nationally

Trump Narrows Ad-Spending Gap

Poll: Trump Leads Clinton Among Military and Veteran Voters

Clinton Holds Steady Against Trump as Campaign Enters Final Weeks: Poll

Obama's High Approval Rating is a Good Sign for Hillary Clinton

Why High GOP Primary Turnout Might Not Give the Party an Advantage

Poll: Voters Blame Both Parties for Congressional Gridlock

Poll: Donald Trump Chips Away at Hillary Clinton's National Lead

Trump Faces Hurdle With Minority Voters as Clinton Maintains Lead, Poll Shows

Poll: Trump Leads Clinton Among Military Households

Poll: Clinton Maintains Big Lead as Voters Doubt Trump's Temperament

Poll: Clinton Opens Up Double-Digit Lead Over Trump

Poll: Clinton Performs Well Across Racial and Ethnic Groups

Poll: Clinton Makes Gains Across the Country

Poll: Clinton Support Spikes Following Democratic Convention

Poll: No Post-Convention Bounce for Donald Trump

Poll: Trump's VP Pick Mike Pence Unknown to Most Voters

Poll: Clinton and Trump Now Tied as GOP Convention Kicks Off

Majority of Americans Think Racial Discrimination Is a Serious Problem: Poll

Hillary Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks After Controversial Week: Poll

Poll: Clinton Leads Trump, But How Would November Look Without Him?

Clinton Widens Lead Over Donald Trump in NBC Poll

Poll: Majority of Americans Think GOP Will Be Divided in November

Poll: Clinton and Trump Get Party Support, Independents Split

Who's More Likely to Beat Donald Trump — Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?

What Are Voters Looking for in 2016 Presidential Candidates?

How Republicans and Democrats Feel About Their Opponents

Clinton Maintains Lead Over Sanders Heading Into Primaries

Poll: Donald Trump Still Leads the GOP Field

Donald Trump Retakes Lead in GOP Race; Ted Cruz Makes Gains: Poll

Bernie Sanders Reaches New High in Support: Poll

Poll: A Majority of Americans Oppose Accepting Syrian Refugees

Faith and Economics Divide Carson and Trump Supporters

Poll: Americans Pessimistic About Economy

Poll: Carson and Trump Lead the GOP Field

Poll: Hillary Clinton Hits 50 Percent Support

NBC Online Poll: Dem Voters Unified; Candidates Show Fissures

Carson Edges Closer to Trump Thanks to White Evangelicals

NBC Online Poll: Clinton Wins Debate, Re-energizes Core Backers

NBC Online Survey: Hillary Clinton's Lead Narrows

Donald Trump Still in the Lead After Debates: New NBC News/SurveyMonkey Poll