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N-deal puts Iran at a crossroads

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Following harsh criticism from hard-liners, three ministers in the Cabinet of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani resigned from their posts.
This comes in the backdrop of a conflict that was triggered after Iran signed a nuclear agreement with the West and the government promised to start a new era of openness.
Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has been economically and socially isolated. After signing the nuclear deal with the world’s major powers, the Iranian government has raised young people’s expectations for more openness, and shown remarkable flexibility in granting people freedom of expression.
Tehran has permitted the use of social media, reduced control over the Internet, allowed women to engage in sports activities and has also given the green light to holding (music) concerts.
Despite what has been said about the Iranian supreme leader’s approval of the government’s decisions, a conflict for power has erupted between the two key groups of the regime — the religious extremists and the government officials led by Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Zarif, who became the subject of a torrent of insults because of his promises to open up to the world.
Such criticisms and threats that caused the resignations of the ministers of education, culture and sports don’t only reflect intellectual differences over Iran’s openness, but also reflect the extremist forces’ exploitation of religious groups in their struggle for power.
For example, the Revolutionary Guards, as well as its supporters, were shocked after two major banks refused to provide banking services to “Khatam Al-Anbiya,” a business group affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The government pledged that it would apply the requirements of international organizations to combat money laundering. Iran’s openness comes at the price of stopping all dealings with banned organizations. This step has angered the most dangerous group in the regime, the Revolutionary Guards, which massively funds military activities outside Iran through a string of suspicious banking operations.
Moreover, Iranian preacher Ahmad Jannati accused Rouhani’s government by saying, “They want to provide our financial and banking information to the enemies under the pretext of combating money laundering and terrorist financing.” The government’s spokesman responded to Jannati’s statements by saying that this issue could not be addressed in newspapers or on the pulpits of mosques.
Rouhani’s government is facing intense pressure to refrain from delivering on its promises of openness and women empowerment. Iran is being run by two groups; Rouhani’s group, which is said to be representing religious liberalism, and radical clerics in the court of the Supreme Leader, who does not seem to have taken a concrete decision yet.
The supreme leader wants to benefit from the nuclear deal with the West to get the sanctions lifted. He wants to purchase about four hundred US- and European-made aircraft, and import oil production technology from the United States. At the same time, he wants to tighten his grip on the Islamic Republic, prevent openness and keep the country’s security and religious institutions away from international monitoring.
It is clear that the Iranian supreme leader is waiting for the outcomes of the western dealings with Iran, especially after the US presidential election, which he has described as being contested “between bad and worse.” If the next administration in Washington implements the pledges of the current administration, Iran will likely try mixed solutions — little modernization, limited openness and a continuation of its illegal military and financial operations in the region. But if the elected US administration insists on testing the Iranian promises, cooperating with Tehran as long as it implements its promises, Khamenei may call off the agreement, and more likely will not renew confidence in Rouhani, who has less than 10 months remaining in office.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran and internationally acclaimed columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat.

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