Will politicians decide they should take over the job of running central banks?

Janet Yellen is clearly worried that a rise in US interest rates could roil financial markets.
Janet Yellen is clearly worried that a rise in US interest rates could roil financial markets. PABLO MARTINEZ MONSIVAIS

Political hubris being what it is, it's certainly not hard to imagine politicians deciding they are much better qualified to run monetary policy than economists.

After all, as European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi demonstrated overnight, it's now far more important for the world's top central bankers to demonstrate an aptitude for negotiation and persuasion, rather than any particular economic expertise.

That's because central bankers chiefs are caught in a dilemma. On the one hand, they need to calm skittish investors who are deeply suspicious that central banks could start paring back monetary stimulus.

At the same time, however, they need to cater to the growing scepticism within their own boards of the benefits of ultra-loose monetary policy.

Draghi's strategy is to play for time. At his press conference overnight, he confirmed the ECB would decide in December whether to proceed with the bank's controversial €80 billion ($115 billion) a month bond-buying program.

In a deliberate effort to allay market nervousness that the ECB might decide to end its bond-buying program as soon as next March, Draghi said that "an abrupt end to bond purchases is unlikely".

Still, Draghi was careful not to offend the more hawkish ECB board members – led by Germany – who argue that the ECB's ultra-low interest rates are doing more harm than good.

This hawkish camp argues that the ECB's policies – which include negative interest rates and massive bond purchases - are eroding profitability of banks and insurance companies, and reduce the pressure on debt-laden eurozone countries to cut their budget deficits.

In deference to the hawks, Draghi made the obvious point that the ECB's bond-buying program couldn't last "forever". Yet even this seemingly innocuous comment triggered a brief sell-off in shares and bonds.

Janet Yellen's delaying tactics

Janet Yellen, the head of the US Federal Reserve, is also using delaying tactics.

She's clearly worried that a rise in US interest rates could roil financial markets, sending share prices tumbling, and pushing up bond yields. (Yields rise as bond prices fall.)

As a result, she continues to postpone a US rate hike, pointing out that inflation is still below the Fed's 2 per cent target and that, although the US unemployment rate has dropped to 5 per cent, there is still some slack in the labour market.

At the same time, however, a growing number of Fed officials are in favour of raising rates, with three members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee cast dissenting votes at the central bank's meeting last month.

To appease these dissenters, the statement released after the Fed's meeting noted that the US central bank "judges that case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued toward its objective."

Of course, critics would argue that central bankers have only themselves to blame for their predicament. In the wake of the financial crisis, central banks in the United States, Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom adopted extremely unorthodox monetary policies – including zero, or even negative interest rates, and massive bond buying programs.

Central bankers hoped that this massive monetary stimulus would lift prices for assets – such as shares and houses – and that, as people felt more wealthy, they would increase their spending which would lead to stronger economic activity.

Unfortunately, only the first part of their prediction has proved correct. As a result of massive monetary stimulus, the US share market is trading close to record highs, while global bond yields are not far from historic lows.

But this surge in asset prices has failed to translate into a robust economic recovery, and this leaves central bankers in an extremely vulnerable position. They're reluctant to tighten policy because that could trigger a vicious sell-off in global bond and equity markets, given that asset values are extremely dependent on continued central bank monetary largesse.

As central bankers struggle, politicians are becoming much bolder in their criticism.

Earlier this month, UK Prime Minister Theresa May launched an ominous attack on the "bad side effects" of the monetary policies pursued by the Bank of England and other central banks since the financial crisis.

"People with assets have got richer. People without them have suffered. People with mortgages have found their debts cheaper. People with savings have found themselves poorer", she said.

Similarly, senior German politicians have criticised the ECB's negative interest rate policies, blaming them for the rise of rightwing Alternative for Germany party.

Overnight, Draghi brushed aside suggestions that the hard-won independence of central banks could be under threat. 

But he, along with other central bank chiefs, will be painfully aware that their institutions are now much more susceptible to political interference than they have been in decades.