- published: 24 Feb 2007
- views: 3119045
Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality or reality. Studies have consistently shown that holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes to be more likely than negative outcomes (see valence effect).
Christopher Booker described wishful thinking in terms of
Prominent examples of wishful thinking include:
In addition to being a cognitive bias and a poor way of making decisions, wishful thinking is commonly held to be a specific logical fallacy in an argument when it is assumed that because we wish something to be true or false that it is actually true or false. This fallacy has the form "I wish that P is true/false, therefore P is true/false." Wishful thinking, if this were true, would underlie appeals to emotion, and would also be a red herring.
The charge of "wishful thinking" itself can be a form of circumstantial ad hominem argument, even a Bulverism.
Wishful thinking may cause blindness to unintended consequences.
Listen to the waves
Everything communicates
Will it ever be
Anything more than wishful thinking?
Oh no, there you go
Looked away and missed the show
How much wasted time
Will you survive?
Feel the blades of grass
How it brings you back
It will always be
Only as green as you can see
Oh no, there you go
Looked away and missed the show
How much wasted time
Will you survive?
Oh yeah, fooled again
I don't know how and I don't know when
Not much else to blame
But wishful thinking
Little breakdowns
In coastal town
They come suddenly
Crashing over you
They come easily
I'm falling through the skies
And frozen places
Oh no, there you go
Looked away and missed the show
How much wasted time
Will you survive?
Oh yeah, fooled again
I don't know how and I don't know when
Not much else to blame
But wishful thinking
And I try to realize
That I needn't look any further
The whole of the universe is plain to see
And I try not to rely
On another world or the future
The whole of the universe is a mystery
Gets me over
It gets me over, yeah, oh
It gets me over