Politics in the Zeros

The state slogan of Nevada is “battle born”, which is particularly apt this campaign season. Nevada is a swing state with a hugely important Senate race. 538 now has Hillary winning here. The race to replace retiring Senator Harry Reid is close, with Republican Heck maybe slightly ahead of Democrat Masto. The Adelson-Journal (excuse me, I of course meant to say the Review-Journal) used a highly suspect voter sample  in their recent polls, and even then have both races deadlocked. In truth, Clinton is surging and her coattails will help Masto.

Millions of dollars have been coming from outside groups for both races.  This week the Democrats start bringing in the big guns. Sen. Warren will speak in Vegas on Tuesday with Masto and VP candidate Tim Kaine will be here Thursday. The result will be determined by turnout and in this Democrats have an edge over badly organized Republicans.

It all comes down to Get Out The Vote. I’ve doing grunt work for the Clinton campaign, entering voter registration and phone banking data into their voter tracking system. It’s boring but crucial. This data is used to get volunteers and come election day, to GOTV by calling Hillary supporters urging them to vote and offering rides to polls.

The Democratic vote tracker software is well-thought-out. Phone bank callers have nine names per sheet of paper when they fill in information on the calls. The voter tracking software also displays nine names per page, making it easy to enter the data, as the names are in the same order as on the calling sheets. After filling in any data for the nine, there is a time-saving button to make the remaining Not Home, which is what most calls are.

Elections are won and lost with data like this. The more you GOTV, the better the chances for winning.

Small Wars Journal says the best, perhaps only way, to prevent homegrown violent extremism by Muslims, is to welcome them into our communities and help them become a part of, rather than feeling separate from. This conclusion is from an Air Force Intelligence Officer, who also points out that there have been more attacks since 9/11 in the US by right-wing extremists than by jihadists.

In the ten years following 9/11, there were only eight homegrown terrorist attacks motivated by Islamic jihadist goals, compared to a whopping eighteen inspired by right-wing extremist motives based on political, religious, or identity-based hatred.

Jihadists often recruit by osmosis and may never make personal contact. This makes it harder to spot but still, there may be signs.

ISIL’s ability to plant the ideological seed and foster the growth of violent jihad without tangible assistance or direct communications poses an enormous challenge to intelligence and law enforcement efforts. Aside from the Garland, Texas case, all the attackers studied self-radicalized in relative isolation, meaning there were few if any warning signs and thus little that law enforcement can do to prevent an attack. Some experts have suggested screening Google searches and social media posts for certain keywords and internet “patterns of life” in order to detect potentially nefarious activity. While this tactic would be useful in developing watch lists, it could lead to substantial false positives and more importantly, directly conflicts with the indispensable American rights of free speech and privacy. Certainly, it is not a crime to express one’s beliefs even if they support extreme Islamic ideals. With that said, any explicit threat or ultimatum issued online or via social media, related to Islamic extremism or otherwise, ought to be treated as a serious threat to public safety and handled through law enforcement action.

Also, monitoring all email, social media, texts, etc. looking for possible threats is impossible. There’s just too much data. Even NSA admits they have no way of sorting through all the data they store to get actionable information. So, other methods need to be used.

Doubling-down on efforts to encourage integration of Muslim immigrants into American communities, both respecting and welcoming diverse cultures, would go leaps and bounds in preventing homegrown extremism. In particular, ensuring young Muslims have opportunities to find purpose and belonging in local American communities is critical in reducing the chances that they will turn to ISIL or other extremist organizations to meet these needs.

Such efforts will require a long-term dedication to maximizing social integration of Muslim communities at home, tailoring counter-messaging and targeting communications nodes abroad, and quelling the hatred and violence espoused on social media platforms in cyberspace. History has shown that following Al Qaeda and ISIL there may rise another yet-unheard of fundamentalist organization. Considering the enduring yet evolving nature of this threat, a comprehensive effort to undermine the messaging and motivation driving self-radicalized violent extremism will be the only approach sufficient in securing the American homeland for decades to come.

We lived near downtown San Jose recently. It’s a weird mix of pricey new apartments, empty storefronts, and bars and restaurants servicing nearby San Jose State University. We’re back here on business. The downtown area, if anything, seems to be going a bit the wrong way. There are more vacant storefronts, a big independent movie theater shut down, and while some blocks have lots of perky students, other streets aren’t particularly safe late at night. A nearby park next to the Post Office is dangerous at night.

A downtown Walgreen’s almost always has homeless, drug dealers, and transients outside of it while two blocks away a large new apartment building features a 1,121 sq ft, 2 bdr 1 ba, corner unit for a mere $4,529 a month! A Ross Dress For Less closed and there is just one market in the area, a mini Safeway.

Also, and I got to say this, there are a number of little businesses who never seem to have customers yet stay open for years. How very curious… Those businesses, and the bars and restaurants for students are about the only stores around. And two blocks the other way is their Museum of Modern Art, The Tech Museum, and a four-star hotel.

It’s hard to tell if downtown San Jose is coming or going.

San Jose Musuem of Modern Art

Expensive new apartments in a really ugly building

Bedraggled Walgreens’s

Good Karma restaurant. Excellent vegan food. They thrive.