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Life after the mining boom: where 22,000 WA workers will go next

Emma Young

All of the 22,000 people who lost their full-time mining sector jobs between 2013 and 2015 - not to mention their families - can relate to the question 'what next?'

There has been little guidance so far, but a picture of a "new normal" workforce did emerge on Thursday as Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre released its latest report.

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Australia has reached the bottom of a major cycle, according to mining magnate Andrew 'Twiggy' Forrest. Courtesy ABC

Tellingly, the 400-strong audience was the largest crowd the 'think-tank' has ever drawn at a report launch. 

Back to the Future: WA's Economic Future After The Boom painted a bleak picture of significant wealth inequality and a persistent gender wealth gap in WA.

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"During the boom the resources industry delivered record jobs and soaring wages," centre deputy director Rachel Ong said.

But by mid-2015 the unemployment rate rose above national levels for the first time in a decade, and by August grew to 6 per cent, compared to 5.7 per cent for the rest of Australia.

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Accompanying the "inexorable decline" in full-time resources jobs were rising part-time, casual and underemployment rates. 

WA was one of three states where 'underemployment' – people working less than their capacity despite desiring full-time work – was rising, and WA rates were rising more steeply than in the others, Victoria and South Australia. 

Mining jobs are declining. But what will replace them?
Mining jobs are declining. But what will replace them?  Photo: Jacky Ghossein

The number of employees on casual contracts was also rising more dramatically and more quickly in WA than it was across Australia.

"Overall these charts paint a picture of a labour market marred by weaker demand, growing work hours and growing insecurity," Professor Ong said. 

Along with job losses has come rising numbers of "underemployed" people, who are working to less than full capacity ...
Along with job losses has come rising numbers of "underemployed" people, who are working to less than full capacity despite their desire for full-time work.  Photo: Mayu Kanamori

And while the state government has recently emphasised diversifying the economy through growing tourism and agriculture, the research showed the minuscule contribution these sectors actually make.

Agriculture contributed less than two per cent to the state's output in 2015; tourism-related industries 4.9 per cent.

Jobs in the tourism industry would be nice - but the reality is, the sector is shrinking.
Jobs in the tourism industry would be nice - but the reality is, the sector is shrinking.  

Tourism had actually shrunk from 5.4 per cent in 2010 and agriculture was falling both in value and as an employer.

Mining, by comparison, made up 37 per cent and remained the sixth-biggest employer.

Pinning our hopes on agriculture is also unrealistic - it makes up less than two per cent of our economy.
Pinning our hopes on agriculture is also unrealistic - it makes up less than two per cent of our economy.  Photo: Louie Douvis

"The degree of concentration of value in a few sectors has actually increased," centre director Alan Duncan said.

"It goes against the prevailing narrative of diversification.

Sorry. Looks like this is much closer to the workplace of the future.
Sorry. Looks like this is much closer to the workplace of the future.  Photo: Jessica Shapiro

"Mining will clearly continue to be the cornerstone."

ACIL Allen Consulting executive director John Nicolaou said while mining would see positive long-term growth from rising exports and dividends, in a sense it would be "jobless growth".

So what sectors will do the heavy lifting, growing in both value and as employers? 

The biggest, the report showed, is health care and social services.

Administration and support, transport, postal and warehousing are also on the list.

Arts and recreation, though a tiny industry, is also growing on both fronts. 

Construction is also worth a mention, the only major sector growing as an employer despite declining in value.

Professor Ong said while government policy needed to reflect growing job insecurity, West Australians also needed to shift their idea of careers as full-time, stable jobs that lasted a lifetime. 

"Career shifts, growing casualisation, are all at odds with this idea," she said.

"Pathways will likely be less straightforward. Western Australians may need to hold more jobs at a time. A flexible, multifaceted, portfolio-based labour market may be very different from the labour market of the past."

Mr Nicolau said long-term trends showed a move from a blue to a white-collar workforce. The trend emerging in Australia as with other advanced economies was in a growth in the services sector; skills allowing human labour to compete with technology-driven labour would be in demand.

Toro Energy chief executive Vanessa Guthrie said as someone who had weathered seven boom-bust cycles that meant occasional unemployment even for herself, she viewed the precariousness of employment in WA as an opportunity.

"Mining is and will remain a cornerstone ... 37 per cent is a big number we should not walk away from," she said.

"The report really says we are returning to a new normal after the investment super-cycle.

"The shift to part-time work can open up the opportunity for more women to join and rejoin the workforce so you get more productivity from a greater proportion of people.

"A shift in how we think of the traditional cycles of work is not necessarily a bad thing."

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