In what has become the dirtiest US election campaign in memory, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson both failed to qualify for the first presidential debate on Monday September 26.
The Commission on Presidential Debates’ announcement means only Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will be on stage, with pundits predicting a “slugfest.”. So far he has called her “unhinged” and “rotten”, while she called him “dangerous” and a “bully”. Recent opinion polls suggest that large numbers of voters find the level of personal abuse a turn-off and are looking for “alternatives.”
But the rules, in which all candidates must have an average 15% approval rating, mean that the two minority candidates will be denied a place in the three televised debates despite approaching their parties’ best-ever showings.
Given that Trump and Mrs Clinton are currently neck-and-neck in the polls, if the third-party candidates take a few more percentage points from one of the major party candidates, it could swing the election. Surveys currently show Johnson drawing about equally from both candidates, while Ms Stein almost entirely eats into the Mrs Clinton’s support. In 2000 Green Party candidate Ralph Nader won enough votes in Florida to tilt the state – and the election – from Democrat Al Gore to Republican George W Bush.
The commission board determined average poll numbers to be Mrs Clinton on 43%, Trump with 40.4%, Johnson at 8.4%, and Ms Stein on 3.2%. The commission will review poll numbers again before issuing invitations to the next two debates, expected to draw audiences of tens of millions.
Meanwhile, Trump has the edge over Mrs Clinton when it comes to smears and conspiracy claims. He finally admitted that Barak Obama was born in the US, but called on Mrs Clinton’s bodyguards to disarm and “see what happens to her”. Mrs Clinton, for her part, claimed that Trump has often treated his election campaign as if it were another of his reality television shows.
Even terrorism sparked a clash. Trump has lamented that New York bombing suspect Ahmad Khan Rahami will receive medical treatment and legal representation after his arrest. And Mrs Clinton said: “The kinds of rhetoric and language that Mr Trump has used is giving aid and comfort to our adversaries.”