FTW: NFL is no longer a quarterback league

Steven Ruiz

USATODAY

Jerry Jones was saved from himself. It's not clear who is responsible for the Cowboys' 2014 first-round draft pick being used on guard Zack Martin, but we do know one thing: Jerry Jones had his heart set on taking Texas A&M;'s Johnny Manziel.

"I'm still so damn mad at [Cowboys CEO] Stephen [Jones]," Jones told ESPN The Magazine's Don Van Natta Jr. later that summer. "… I get madder, every day, about missin' (Manziel)."
"There's only one thing I wanna say - I'd have never bought the Cowboys had I made the kinda decision that I just made right now," Jones told his son and Cowboys Director of Player Personnel Stephen Jones. "You need to drive across the water rather than lay up. And we laid up for this one. … We just didn't get here makin' this kind of decision."

Jones may not have made his fortune by making that kind of decision, but he has built a team capable of getting to a Super Bowl by doing so, and may have inadvertently stumbled upon the league's biggest market inefficiency: A great offensive line.

The NFL is supposedly a quarterback league. That's why teams are handing out big money deals to serviceable passers. But maybe the success the 5-1 Cowboys are enjoying this season will convince teams to take a new approach. A great quarterback can take an average offense and make it good. A great offensive line, however, can take a flawed quarterback and turn him into a star.

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You really have to go back and watch Dak Prescott at Mississippi State to appreciate what he's doing in Dallas right now.

The Cowboys rookie was a star for the Bulldogs entering his final season in Starkville but was not seen a big-time NFL prospect. After utilizing Prescott in the Cam Newton role in his option-based offense, Dan Mullen went with a more pro-style approach in 2015 to help change that perception. The identity shift didn't really work out for the Mississippi State or Prescott.

The offensive line wasn't very talented, and Prescott was hit hard. The constant pressure got to him. He rushed throws, which ruined his mechanics. He dropped his eyes against the rush. He did not see the field clearly. Prescott would still be drafted, but any chance he had of going on Day 1 had vanished.

Here's what NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, a respected member of the draft community, had to say about Prescott's NFL prospects:

"Prescott has NFL size, mobility and enough arm, but the tape shows a player who must improve his mechanics, poise and quickness through his progressions if he is to become a full-time starter in the NFL."

"The Mississippi State standout has some nice tools - a strong arm and great athleticism - so if he ever learns to operate in the pocket and read defenses, he has a chance."

If you've watched Prescott at all this season, you'd think Zierlein and I had watched a completely different person. We hadn't. We watched the same quarterback who has broken numerous rookie passing records this season, but we watched him play behind a different offensive line. Prescott was sacked more than any other SEC quarterback during his final year in Starkville. Only four NFL quarterbacks with at last 100 attempts have been sacked fewer times than Prescott during his first season in Dallas.

Prescott has been able to shine thanks to the best offensive line in the NFL, which has amplified the rookie quarterback's strengths.

And this is a growing trend in the league. There are, of course, some quarterbacks who are mostly immune to the talent level on their offensive line - Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, for instance, are going to play well no matter what. But the difference between a quarterback playing poorly and looking like a star seems to come down to offensive line play. It's gotten to the point where we can safely say that the NFL is no longer a quarterback league. It's an offensive line league.

Prescott's nine-month "evolution" from a raw college passer to a polished NFL quarterback might be the best example of the effect an offensive line can have on a quarterback, but he's not the only one.

Many people have wondered what happened to Colin Kaepernick over the last few years. As recently as 2014, he looked like a bona fide star for the 49ers. He led the team to back-to-back NFC Championship Game appearances and signed a six-year, $114 million contract. Two seasons later, he lost his job to Blaine Gabbert.

Kaepernick didn't get worse. His offensive line did. At Kaepernick's peak, San Francisco was home to the best offensive line in the league. Injuries took their toll. Mike Iupati left in free agency, which forced Alex Boone to change positions. Anthony Davis retired … twice. The center position was a question mark even when the line was playing well. Kaepernick, who was never really good at getting through his progressions in a timely manner, had less time in the pocket and was exposed as a below average passer.

And it's not just the bad quarterbacks who get the boost. Just look at Matt Ryan. He has long dealt with poor pass protection in Atlanta, but has managed to put together decent seasons anyway. In 2016, he's all of a sudden in the MVP conversation.

Did Ryan develop into an elite passer at 31? Nope. Atlanta signed center Alex Mack last offseason, and he has solidified one of the better lines in the league. Mack anchors the middle with Jake Matthews and the drastically underrated Ryan Schraeder manning the tackle spots.

Derek Carr's up-and-down 2015 campaign is more proof. In the first half of last season, Carr looked as good as any passer in the league.

His offensive line was simply dominant over those first two months. He was sacked only eight times, and the pass rush wasn't even getting close:

Carr put up MVP-level numbers over those first eight games:

COMP%: 63.7
YD/ATT: 7.7
TD: 19
INT: 4
RATING: 104.3

The offensive line regressed and injuries started to pop up over the second half. Carr was sacked 23 times over the final eight games, and his numbers fell off a cliff:

COMP%: 58.7
YD/ATT: 5.8
TD: 13
INT: 9
RATING: 79.2

Carr's offensive line is once again playing at a high level, and the Raiders' young quarterback is getting MVP buzz.

It's not a coincidence that Carson Wentz played the worst game of his career on a day he was sacked five times behind a line that lost right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension. Or that Andy Dalton has been unable to replicate his breakout 2015 season now that his line is no longer an elite unit.

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A quarterback's most precious resource is time in the pocket. The trait that separates the elite from the rest is the ability to process information quickly. Let's say a quarterback like Brady can make his reads in, say, two seconds, and Prescott needs, say, four seconds. That two-second difference is a big deal if the two are playing behind the same offensive line.

Now give Prescott a great offensive line and put Brady behind a suspect line. The gap between those two players is closed considerably. That's how players like Prescott and Carr are putting up Brady-like numbers this season.

A smart team will recognize this, and start to build around their offensive line, which is much cheaper than paying a franchise quarterback. The Cowboys starting o-line cost the team $19.4 million against the cap in 2016, per Spotrac. Prescott's cap hit is $545 thousand. That's less than $20 million combined. Tony Romo is carrying a $20.8 million cap hit this season.

How many true franchise quarterbacks - guys who are going to succeed no matter what is around them - are there in the league at any given time? They are almost impossible to find. And the average NFL quarterback has become so expensive that building a good offensive line has become an infinitely safer and cheaper option.

The Cowboys built their line through the draft. The Raiders were able to do it by signing solid veteran linemen to affordable deals in free agency. The Falcons used a combination of those two strategies to build theirs.

There's only one way to find a franchise-elevating quarterback: Getting extremely lucky in the draft.

Finding the mythical franchise quarterback is difficult. Focusing on building an offensive line that can elevate the play of an average quarterback appears to be a more reasonable approach.

The franchise offensive line is the new franchise quarterback.