My picks this year haven't been all that good. Neither have anyone's. And I'm loving.every.second.of it. The NFL has gone insane, both in good and bad ways. Other fans have apparently not warmed up to the changes we are seeing as viewer-ship is down across the board. It can only be speculated as to why, and I have my own ideas, some among the good and some among the bad.
The Good:
Defense rules. The NFL owners had a brilliant plan to hamstring defense and promote scoring. That plan has backfired to a degree. Defenses used to be made of gazillian pound monsters up front and tiny little speeders in the back. What separated good defenses from the bad was the interior, safeties who could devastate and middle linebackers who could terrorize. As the rules changed to favor bigger and slower wide outs, and hinder the heavy hitters, defensive players have adapted, as have their coaches. Linemen are lighter and faster, pass rushers are quicker and use skills beyond bulk and power, and DBs are taller and more 'receiver like' than ever. Interior backers are less like Randy Gradishar or Dick Butkis and more like pass defenders. Old school football has made a return to form. As owners and administrators change the rules to favor the future Jerry Rices (there will never be another Jerry Rice), Coaches are calling on tight ends and running backs to be receiving machines, letting the running game dictate pace and seeking ball control over flashy chunks of turf. 31 years ago, the best team in football had the best defense that ever played. 3 years ago, the best offense ever seen was defeated when it mattered by a defense geared towards those old school rules with modern tooling. This year, the Vikings are statistically challenging the '85 Bears and Minnesota remains the only undefeated team coming into week six. Defense matters more than ever. How can anyone not like this?
N00bs are ruling. The quarterback position is more important than ever, with brains trumping size or toughness. Yes, we still have the elites we love, Big Ben, Rodgers, Brees. But the young guys are being effective and doing it in a hurry. 2 Rookies in the same year have challenged Tom Brady's string of pass attempts without an interception. One is still inching closer. The one who threw a garbage interception is from an FCS school. The quarterback spot is in flux, the kind of thing we haven't seen in 30 years. Not since the QB draft of '83 (Elway, Kelly, Marino) have we seen this kind of game-altering production from the young guys under center. I'm loving this, even if others aren't.
The Bad:
Herr Goodell and the control Stripetroopers. Suspensions are really getting out of hand. It was one thing when they were utilized to promote the league's integrity. Now they are being used to promote league image. This is not the way people want football to look. Which leads to:
The No Fun League. Even college players are being allowed more leeway to celebrate than the NFL players are (except for spiking the ball, 'cause Gronk does that and he's a celebrity ...) It's been noticed, A LOT, that the status of the player can dictate when a "taunting" or "excessive celebration" penalty can be called. That's not football, it's bullshit marketing of the counter-productive kind. "Oooh, this player looked at another player wrong and if he does it again we'll alter the game by ejecting him". This is the grossest over-reaction to Odell Beckham trying helmet missile another player. Short of spiking the ball into the opponent's nuts, taunting should be a non-thing.
From a player's perspective, here's what they are being told. If you enjoy what you accomplish we will take money from you and pump it into the richest professional league in history. Players aren't happy, and can't navigate these draconian by-laws. I don't blame them. Terrell Davis, who popularized the Mile High Salute to honor the fans would now be charged with a fine and penalty for bringing the fans closer to the game. I wonder why the NFL viewer-ship is down ... not.
Color Rush: Crass commercialism. The only good thing to come out of this uniform travesty is the Broncos wearing the D-Pony.
Win Now: I will deal with another time. Until then, on with the picks.
Thursday:
Denver (4-1) at San Diego (1-4) - Broncos
I've said before that Denver would miss Danny Travatheon more than Malik Jackson. Atlanta made the blueprint for defeating the Broncos but San Diego doesn't have the players who can do it.
Sunday:
San Francisco (1-4) at Buffalo (3-2) - Bills
Niners cross country. Niners go boom. But I think they are better with Keapernick than with Gabbert.
Philadelphia (3-1) at Washington (3-2) - Eagles
I'm going with the defense here.
Cleveland (0-5) at Tennessee (2-3) - Titans
The one game I really hope for an upset.
Baltimore (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3) - Giants
Eli will not have a great game, but one good enough.
Carolina (1-4) at New Orleans (1-3) - Saints
Newton will have to prove that he can keep his head in a game.
Jacksonville (1-3) at Chicago (1-4) - Jaguars
They are coming on.
Los Angeles (3-2) at Detroit (2-3) - Lions
I really have no preference here. So I'm going with the home team.
Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (1-4) - Steelers
It must truly suck to be Adam Gase right now. He's got shit for a team.
Cincinnati (2-3) at New England (4-1) - Hatriots
I have no desire to say anything other than that I will drunkenly celebrate if the Bengals pull this off.
Kansas City (2-2) at Oakland (4-1) - Chiefs
The Raiders can't seem to pressure anyone right now. And if you don't shake Alex Smith, he will systematically pick you apart.
Atlanta (4-1) at Seattle (3-1) - Seahawks
Seattle will be better at controlling the middle of the field than the Broncos were.
Dallas (4-1) at Green Bay (3-1) - Packers
I hate these 'flip a coin' picks. Burt it is in Wisconsin.
Sunday Night:
Indianapolis (2-3) at Houston (3-2) - Texans
Even Osweiler can decimate the Colts D.
Monday Night:
New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona (2-3) - Cardinals
Larry Fitzgerald for the win.
Byes: Minnesota, Tampa Bay
Last Week's Score: 7 - 7, 50%, Overall: 45 - 32, 58%