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A 14 per cent plunge in Crown shares led a broadly negative session on the ASX, as the benchmark top 200 index fell 45 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 5389.
News of government raids on Crown's Chinese offices sparked heavy selling in the stock, with fellow casino operators Star and SkyCity also suffering some fallout, dropping 3.7 and 3.9 per cent, respectively.
Any early support for bluechips fell away as the day progressed, with ANZ the only one of the major banks to end the session higher amid more chatter of potential dividend cuts for the sector. BHP and Rio ended down 0.7 per cent and 0.8 per cent, although Fortescue managed to add 2.7 per cent and South32 inched higher.
Whitehaven Coal added 3.5 per cent after releasing quarterly coal production numbers and upbeat price forecasts. Gold miner Kingsgate returned from months in ASX limbo only to drop by a third.
The property sector was one of the worse performers as investors fret about the effect of rising bond on the attractiveness of the traditional yield plays. Scentre Group was the single biggest drag on the index, falling 3.1 per cent. Westfield lost 2.1 per cent and Goodman 3.3 per cent.
The central bank governor behind one of the world's biggest experiments with negative rates has declared their introduction "undramatic" even as many economists expect further cuts.
Stefan Ingves, head of Sweden's Riksbank, told the Financial Times that a main interest rate of minus 0.5 per cent had caused few problems for banks while the economy has boomed.
"It has been undramatic. Clearly, the various worries that have been aired in different parts of the world have not materialised," he said in an interview after a speech in central Sweden.
But with a debate raging about the impact of negative deposit rates in the eurozone on lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Mr Ingves underscored how Sweden's banks had few bad loans and good profitability. Lenders have refrained from passing on negative rates to the general public or small businesses but have made the largest companies — which themselves may be able to borrow below zero in the bond markets — pay to deposit money.
"Our financial sector environment has been in a better position than some parts of Europe to handle negative rates," Mr Ingves added.
The actions of the world's oldest central bank have been under intense scrutiny in recent years. The Riksbank was among the first central banks to raise rates after the financial crisis in 2010-11, only to have to reverse that later and become one of the pioneers of negative rates. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have since followed the path of Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland.
Economists at Nordea, the biggest bank in the Nordics, think the Riksbank will have to cut rates deeper into negative territory and boost its purchases of government debt after the inflation rate has fallen in recent months.
"The Riksbank's toolbox is getting empty and it is far from certain that any further stimuli measures will be effective. Nevertheless, we expect the Riksbank to come up with more," said the Nordea economists.
It's no secret that the strategic investors and infrastructure funds are paying big prices for electricity network assets.
But what about the listed power network owners?
Citi reckons the likes of AusNet and Spark Infrastructure, in particular, have been left behind.
"Recent M&A deals of unlisted assets have achieved very high prices, in part due to the current low cost of debt and investor appetite for yield," the analysts told clients this morning.
"We think this shows a clear disconnect between prices paid in private markets and valuations ascribed for listed names.
"In particular Ausnet and Spark look cheap (~11x) vs the recent Transgrid deal (14.7x) and media speculated Ausgrid (14.2x) Chinese bid metrics."
And on EV/EBITDA multiples, Spark and Ausnet's valuations are 22-25 per cent discounts versus the Transgrid and Ausgrid deals, they write.
Citi reiterated its utilities sector order of preference, telling clients to buy Spark and DUET. It has "neutral" ratings on APA Group and AusNet.
Chinese steel futures have extended gains to hit a nearly six-week high, lifted by surging raw material costs in the world's top steel producer.
A big rally in steelmaking raw materials including coking coal and iron ore this year has sharply increased Chinese steelmakers' production costs and eroded mills' margins, forcing a growing number of steelmakers to start booking losses.
"Only about half of Chinese steel mills are still profitable, and some are making a loss of 100 yuan ($US15.00) a tonne," said Li Wenjing, an analyst with Industrial Futures in Shanghai.
"The shortage of coal and coke supply has led to a big spike in prices, and turned mills' performance to negative and thus caused them to curb production," Li added.
The most active rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 2.3 per cent to 2433 yuan a tonne by the midday break. Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had risen 2.4 per cent to 442.5 yuan by the midday break.
An environmental crackdown in China to battle pollution and overcapacity has also hit steel mills' production, though they could increase output to offset losses when orders pick up.
China's Hebei province, the country's biggest steelmaking region, has imposed what it calls "special emission restrictions" on local mills as part of its war on smog, according to a policy document.
Though China has ordered major coal mines to raise output as the government looks to boost supply after shutdowns, steel mills have still found it difficult to restock coking coal, traders said.
"Given supply of raw materials will remain tight, as long as demand does not shrink sharply, the overall situation will not improve," Li added.
Coking coal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had surged 5.3 per cent by midday. They have more than doubled so far this year.
Why did Beijing pick a fight with Crown? Gaming companies around the world pull out all the stops when it comes to wooing big-spending Chinese gamblers to their casinos, the AFR's Michael Smith writes.
It is ... unclear why Crown has been singled out at this stage. Like the Korea situation, one theory is that it was the result of a disgruntled gambler who was in debt and took their claims against Crown to the authorities.
Companies like Crown spare no expense looking after their VIPs. Fleets of private jets fly high rollers from Asia, but not mainland China, to destinations like Australia. Industry insiders say it is not unusual to offer them lines of credit worth millions of dollars.
Their other role is collection debts from Chinese gamblers, which is in itself another grey area in terms of Chinese law.
A lot of the communication between Crown's marketing and sales team and customers would also have been conducted on China's social messaging network WeChat. Local authorities would have access to those messages.
Other gaming operators are horrified by the news. Skirting around the laws is often an exercise in subtlety but the practice is now in the spotlight and other casino operators, fear it will impact their VIP revenues.
There are concerns that the crackdown means Chinese authorities also have access to databases containing the names and personal details of high-rollers in China, who will now be reluctant to do business with any casino operator.
Merger and acquisition activity is heating up towards year end, but investors need to be wary of rewarding companies that launch takeovers as most are done for the wrong reasons and many will end in tears, Perpetual says.
M&A activity has ramped up in recent weeks, with a flurry of activity in the mining services space including Cimic's $524 million bid for UGL but also with the likes of JB Hi-Fi's takeover of The Good Guys and on Friday, the $361 million takeover of Fantastic Holdings by the South African-based owner of Snooze and Freedom, Steinhoff Asia Pacific.
The environment was ideal for M&A where interest rates were low, debt was cheap and management was searching for earnings-per-share accretion, Perpetual portfolio manager Anthony Aboud said, but he was wary about the "extraordinary market reactions" in rewarding companies simply for making an acquisition.
"For every Berkshire Hathaway, a company that has continually bought businesses that have added growth, there are hundreds that pour shareholders' money down a drain marked 'diversification'," Mr Aboud said.
A recent example is the $1.3 billion takeover of British firm Quindell by Slater & Gordon, which resulted in an $800 million write-down and contributed to the decimation of the company's share price from $7.85 in April 2015 to 38¢.
Statistics show the majority of M&A deals end badly. According to the Harvard Business Review, between 70 and 90 per cent of M&As fail.
Mr Aboud, a speaker at the upcoming Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders conference in November, has a list of "red flags" for companies acquiring for the wrong reasons.
The first is when chief executives pursue EPS-accretive acquisitions because of financial incentives, including where thier base pay increases as the size of the company does.
"When companies justify acquisitions by the size of the EPS accretion, we see a red flag," he said.
Another is when a company pays too much for goodwill.
"Could it be cheaper, albeit slower, to poach the key people than it would be to buy the company?" he said.
Gaming shares aren't only under pressure in Australia, the selloff sparked by a Chinese crackdown on Crown staff has hit stocks around the region.
Sands China has dropped as much as 5.4 per cent, while Galaxy Entertainment lost as much as 4.7 per cent.
"This is a clearer signal to all casino operators and junkets in the region, that the Chinese government doesn't like gambling and will continue the crackdown on the industry and capital outflow," said Tony Tong, founder of Hong Kong-based risk management consulting firm Pacific Financial Services.
Macau, the world's largest casinos hub, has been trying to diversify its economy after China President Xi Jinping in 2014 ordered the Chinese city to cut its dependence on gambling amid his anti-corruption campaign.
Authorities have since been curbing the activities of junket operators, agents who bring Chinese high-rollers overseas to gamble and loan them money to play with, in effect skirting the country's currency controls.
Casinos in countries including the Philippines, South Korea and Australia have sought to fill the gap amid Macau's two-year downturn in gambling revenue, working with junket operators to bring Chinese players there.
Paradise, South Korea's largest operator of casinos for foreigners, said in February last year it was increasing gambling space to cater for a boom in Chinese visitors. Months later, some of its employees were arrested in China.
All six of its employees who were arrested in China last year have been released after serving jail time, a Paradise spokesman said Monday. Four of them were released in June and July, and two of them were released today.
Paradise fell as much as 0.7 percent in Seoul trading, while fellow Korean casino operator Grand Korea Leisure declined as much as 0.9 per cent. Melco Crown Philippines Resorts lost as much as 1.6 per cent in Manila.
"When the government's tone is clear, casinos and junkets need to work smarter in the market," Tong said. "It's dangerous and risky to open offices, organise parties, send business cards and even collect gambling debts in mainland China."
Analysts are busily crunching the numbers on how the recent phenomenal rally in coal prices will benefit the overall economy. HSBC is the latest out with a note.
The main reason for the sudden spike that has pushed spot coking coal prices above $US220 a tonne, more than double where they were trading at in June, is production cuts at Chinese mines, aimed at removing excess capacity in the onshore industry.
"The sharpness of the rise in the coal price is unmatched by anything we have seen since the second leg of the upswing in the commodity prices super-cycle in 2008-09," HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham writes in a note to clients.
"This lift in commodity prices shifts the narrative for the Australian economy, even if only in the short run."
Coal is Australia's second largest export, accounting for 11 per cent of exports, just behind iron ore, at 15 per cent of exports and where prices have surged 40 pe cent since the beginning of the year.
"Interestingly, there are similar forces at work in the iron ore industry with Chinese cutbacks in onshore, low grade, high cost iron ore production seeing a 13 per cent fall in China's iron ore production while imports of Australia's higher grade, lower cost product have continued to rise. The coal and iron ore stories together add up to a decent sized boost to the Australian economy."
How big will that boost be?
Bloxham notes that calculating this is a complicated exercise that depends on how much of the rise in the spot price flows through to actual export prices (keeping in mind that most of the coal is sold on contract) and on how sustained the price rise turns out to be.
Keeping that in mind, he suggests the coal price spike (thermal and coking) could boost export values by $29 billion, which is 1.8 per cent of nominal GDP.
"The longer the spot prices stay high, the more likely this boost arrives. The lift in iron ore prices since the beginning of the year is also estimated to have boosted export values by $15 billion," he says.
Bloxham lists a few ways this is likely to flow through the economy:
- Nominal GDP growth is likely to come in higher than predicted.
- Tax revenues should also get a boost.
- A lift in the terms of trade and nominal income growth could also support wages growth (unit labour costs), lifting local inflation.
- Higher commodity prices help explain the lift in the currency this year
Bloxham adds that this is also a clear example of Australia benefiting from Chinese reform.
"China's policy to cut back on coal mine working days is driven by the authorities' desire to reduce over-capacity in the industry and a clear sign of reform," he says. "Australia is benefiting from this Chinese reform because Australia is the lowest cost producer of high-grade commodities."
And hot on the heels of that last post, more BoA-ML global research suggests the preference for "short-duration" bond funds (duration under 4yrs) over "long-duration" bond funds is the "highest since end-QE3, taper tantrum,and so on" - as the chart below shows.
This is a "clear reflection of investor worries on the bond market as Fed hikes, BoJ announces yield curve control and ECB taper talk," they write, but add that in the past this has been a good entry point.
"In the past this has been a good tactical entry point for bonds as [the macroeconomic situation] weakened after end of stimulus".
BofA-ML's wealth management private clients sold "bond proxies" (telcos, utilities, REITs, dividend & low-volatility funds) aggressively last week, corroborating fear of "peak liquidity" and lower central bank support for Wall St in 2017.
Instead, the bank's private client rotated towards cyclical plays such as financials, emerging markets, tech and China.
The end of an era, or just another tantrum?
That's the question being asked by analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch as global yields continue to climb and investors rip money from bond funds.
"A tapering tantrum, this time from the ECB, has begun to question the 'QE-infinity' narrative," they write, as government bond funds suffered their biggest weekly outflow since November 2015, while investment-grade corporate bond funds stuttered to their first week of outflows in 31 weeks.
The chart below, which is based on data which tracks asset fund flows globally, shows the situation.
That said, "The reach for yield remains," the analysts write, as emerging market global debt funds continue to see strong, albeit slowing, incomings - recording their 15th week of continuous inflows.
The big end of the Australian sharemarket is likely to outstrip the performance of small and medium-sized cap companies over the next 12 months in a market currently priced for very low interest rates, says the managing director of Australia's biggest listed investment company.
Ross Barker, who oversees a portfolio worth $6.5 billion for the Australian Foundation Investment Company said that even though there are still some "headwinds" for many of the top 50 stocks on the ASX, he predicts they will generally perform better than small and mid-cap stocks.
But it is likely that overall, the ASX200 will spin its wheels and still be sitting at between 5400 to 5500 points by this time in 2017. Better performing big cap stocks would offset an unwinding of some of the excessive price-earnings multiples among the mid-cap and small cap sector.
Barker said the big miners such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto which have slashed dividends and capital investment are likely to be the prime candidates for lifting dividends higher in the next couple of years, although not to the same extent as during the mining boom. Improving commodity prices are also a plus, although AFIC is still annoyed at how much capital had been wasted during the golden years.
AFIC owns $313 million of BHP shares and the miner is its third-largest overall holding.
#Shortpositions in #AusBanks are up 50% in last month, historically banks outperform at this time of the year #squeeze pic.twitter.com/wcbqeWc90z
— Matt Felsman (@mattfelsman) October 16, 2016
Barker said that while it will be difficult for three of the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank, NAB and Westpac, to maintain dividends following ANZ's decision to substantially reduce its payout to shareholders, all four are likely to be much more aggressive on costs.
This would help to offset subdued growth in lending as real estate prices peak.
"They've still got the lever they can use of cost-cutting," he said.
Shares have taken a lurch lower and the ASX 200 is now approaching 5400 points, down 25 points or 0.5 per cent to 5409, as miners sell off, the big banks struggle to hold on to gains, and casino operators led by Crown are whacked.
Around the region, Chinese mainland stocks have opened a touch higher, but Japan's Nikkei has taken a nosedive after a strong start and is now in the red. Wall St futures are lower. The Aussie dollar is off 0.4 of a penny to 75.83 US cents.
Aussie bonds continue to sell off, with the 10-year government yield climbing to 2.313 (remembering yields move in the opposite direction to prices) and back to its early June levels.
The story of the day, Crown, is still off more than 10 per cent following Chinese government raids on its overseas offices, but losses in fellow casino operators Star and SkyCity have moderated a touch, to 5.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent.
BHP is now off 0.8 per cent and Rio 1 per cent, while Fortescue's gains have been trimmed to 0.8 per cent. South32 just can't lose, though, and is up another 1 per cent as analysts this morning floated the idea of big shareholder cash splashes.
Whitehaven Coal hit a three-and-a-half year high and pushed to $3 per share following the release of its quarterly earnings and upbeat coal price forecasts, but has since pulled back a little to be up 1.4 per cent for the session thus far.
Energy is getting hit as the oil price slips further and amid heightened concerns over the sector among analysts. Woodside is off 1.7 per cent, and Santos 3 per cent.
Banks are now mixed, with CBA marginally lower, NAB 0.6 per cent down, while ANZ is up 0.3 per cent and Westpac 0.4 per cent.
Australia is forecast to enjoy at least another two years of solid economic growth, extending a quarter of a century without recession and dodging the deflation that dogs so many of its rich world peers.
The latest Reuters poll found analysts expect the $1.6 trillion economy to expand by 2.9 per cent this year, unchanged from the July poll.
Growth was seen at 2.8 per cent next year and 2.9 per cent in 2018, a result that would see Australia capture the Netherlands' crown for the longest run without a recession.
Surging export volumes, record low interest rates and an historic boom in home building have already underpinned growth of 3.3 per cent in the year to June.
A recent revival in the value of commodity exports also promises to boost company profits, national income and tax receipts in coming months. Surging prices for coal alone could eradicate the country's trade deficit and add 2 percentage points to nominal GDP.
The worst also seems to be over for a long slump in mining investment, which subtracted a huge 1.6 percentage points from GDP growth in the year to June.
"The Australian economy's output performance, in aggregate, has been resilient in what remains a challenging environment," said Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan. He is tipping economic growth of 3 per cent for both 2016 and 2017.
"That said, downside risks persist. World growth is sluggish, and global financial sector vulnerabilities remain."
At home, jobs growth has turned sluggish and heavily weighted to part time work, restraining wage growth and adding to downward pressure on inflation.
Indeed, underlying inflation slowed to a record low of 1.5 per cent in the year to June and looks likely to have remained very subdued in the third quarter
Accelerating global growth means we are nearing the end of the Australian "profits recession", write Credit Suisse strategists.
Aggregate earnings per share for the ASX 200 has dropped 13 per cent since the third quarter of 2014, but an expected pick-up in global economic growth in 2017 should help inspire single-digit EPS expansion in the year ahead. This backdrop of climbing earnings should help the benchmark top 200 index grind higher to 6000 by December 2017, the broker reckons.
"The coming end of the profits recession suggests a new phase of the market cycle," they write. "The premium associated with growth stocks should diminish as profits growth becomes less scarce."
Lowly valued companies are set to benefit, the strategists write, including the likes of Bluescope Steel, Caltex, Computershare, Macquarie Group and Myer. They add department store owner to their model portfolio.
The analysts also bring a global perspective to the ASX sectors, and they note:
- Australian heath care and infrastructure stocks trade at a biggest premium to their global peers.
- Aussie gold stocks are closing the valuation discount to their peers.
- Banks' price-to-book premium is justified by the superior return on equity.
- Meanwhile, the Australian fund managers are some of the most expensive in the world. But they are also some of the most profitable.
The broker notes that the commodities "mini-cycle" continues, with more spending by China and an increase in infrastructure projects there should boost steel demand and support iron ore prices. Credit Suisse's forecasts are:
- Iron ore could trend lower in the next calendar year to $US45/t because of a developing oversupply.
- The coal price rally is likely to peak out in 4Q16 then drift lower in 2017.
- Despite the recent plunge in the gold price, investment demand could be supported by the uncertainty of the US presidential election and earlier (and harder) than-expected Brexit timeline. We forecast $US1325/ounce by Dec 2016 and $US1450 by end 2017.
- Oil had a flat Q3 but started the fourth quarter with a price rally. Lower inventories in the US and flat production had set the stage for a rally before the OPEC output freeze agreement. The OPEC agreement would pose as a significant upside risk for prices, but currently it lacks crucial details and our analysts maintain crude forecast at $US44 a barrel in December 2016 and $US55 a barrel at the end of 2017.
Shares in Thai gold mine owner Kingsgate Consolidated collapsed this morning when trading resumed after a five-month suspension following a government decision to force it to close its mine by the end of the year.
Shares in the miner plunged as much as 68 per cent and are currently down 43 per cent at 23.5c, shredding the worth of the chairman, Ross Smythe-Kirk, a well-known former Sydney fund manager who has more than 5 million shares in the company.
Kingsgate operates Thailand's only gold mine, the Chatree mine which is located some 280 kilometres north of Bangkok, employing 1000 locals.
Local villagers have long complained of elevated levels of arsenic and manganese in the local environment blaming the miner, with Kingsgate arguing the two elements are occur naturally and not a consequence of its mining.
At the same time, a Thai investor, Northern Gulf Petroleum International has launched a partial takeover bid, offering just 4.2c a share seeking a controlling 50.1 per cent stake in Kingsgate which the miner has rejected.
For the December quarter, Kingsgate has forecast revenue to rise to $87 million from $61 million in the September quarter, which will result in it having net cash of $18 million by the time the Thai mine is closed.
Kingsgate is seeking to resurrect its fortunes via a new project in Chile.
Meanwhile, over in China, the Hong Kong and Shenzhen stock exchanges will today start a three-week systems test to prepare for the launch of the new cross-border share trading link between the cities, which could go live as early as November 21.
The test, running from October 17 to November 9, marks a significant step in the new Stock Connect scheme which will allow international investors to trade 880 Shenzhen listed stocks while mainland investors will be allowed to trade 417 Hong Kong stocks.
"All stockbrokers in Hong Kong and Shenzhen preparing to trade using the Stock Connect scheme will need to join the three-week testing," Benny Mau, chairman of Hong Kong Securities Association, told South China Morning Post.
The testing would be run within normal trading hours, but will be conducted via a separate system.
Mau said similar testing was held prior to the launch of the existing Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launched in 2014, to give brokers a clear idea of how it works.
If problems do crop up, then another week could be added to the test period, he added..
"However, I believe the new stock link should still be launched on November 21, if all goes smoothly."
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing chief executive Charles Li Xiaojia last Thursday said the connect scheme will be introduced on a Monday after mid November, indicating November 21 as the possible date.
Turning away from the Crown saga for a bit, the warnings about overvalued house prices are increasing.
Property looks set to become the "worst investment" over coming decades because of a looming bust in apartment prices and the reality that official interest rates won't stay low forever, says a leading economist.
Describing the nation's economy as trapped in a "Faustian bargain" with low borrowing costs and resurgent commodity prices, Deloitte Access Economics economist Chris Richardson warns that future risks of a shakeout are mounting.
Richardson said buyers had for decades been repeatedly betting "double or nothing" on property, which until now has been a successful strategy. However, it has entrenched an unwavering belief in investing in housing over shares or other assets.
"There comes a point where past performance starts to become a guarantee of an unwinding of future performance," Richardson told The Australian Financial Review.
"There's an increasing risk that it becomes the worst investment in the next few decades. That might happen fast or slow. But every policy maker should pray that it happens slow."
The comments follow the Reserve Bank's decision to issue a storm warning on Friday to inner-city apartment owners and their lenders over a looming oversupply of units that many analysts believe will lead to falling prices.
Banks in coming weeks are likely to reveal revenues are growing at a slower pace than many investors are expecting, Citi analysts say, who say they expect NAB and Westpac to cut their dividends at their results on October 27 and November 7, respectively.
The Citi note was dated Friday, the same day Morgan Stanley analysts echoed similar concerns, saying that expect NAB to cut its dividend this financial year.
"Recent results indicate revenue growth expectations may be too high," the Citi team write. "The key risk for this reporting season is a continued failure to meet consensus revenue estimates."
They point out that CBA was expected to lift revenue by around 6 per cent over the second half of fiscal 2016, but only managed 4 per cent. Same story for Bank of Queensland, where the market was expecting 3 per cent growth but got 0.5 per cent.
Top-line pressure will leave a need for the banks to articulate "where improved performance will emerge".
"The weak environment is likely to drive more proactive plans to improve performance. We are expecting Westpac to be the most active in this regard with better cost disclosure and more proactive targets expected."
All of this translates to mounting pressure on boards to reconsider their shareholder payouts, the analysts say.
"We expect NAB and Westpac to cut dividends at these results. With payout ratios already at around 80 per cent, the weaker than expect revenue growth is set to see a change of tack."
Their preferred big bank is ANZ (buy), with the other three rated "neutral".
Macquarie releases results on October 28, and ANZ November 3.
This morning's share price slump for Crown has wiped a cool $500 million from the value of major shareholder James Packer's stake in the casino operator, as analysts warned Crown could face a profit hit of up to 5 per cent if there is a wider crackdown on China's VIP gaming markets.
Theo Maas, partner at Crown shareholder Arnhem Investment Management said "back of the envelope calculations could mean 4-5 per cent of profits are exposed to the situation" but added "the situation is very uncertain at the moment."
Crown said in a statement to the ASX that it believes the executive vice-president of its VIP international business, Jason O'Connor, has been detained by Chinese authorities in a crackdown that has seen 18 Crown staff detained.
"To date, Crown has not been able to speak with its employees and is working closely with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to urgently make contact with and ascertain the welfare of its employees. Crown is endeavouring to provide support to the families of its employees in China and Australia," the company said.
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