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[–]CrustalTrudgerTectonics | Structural Geology | Geomorphology 953 points954 points  (250 children)

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Given the frequency with which reversals have occurred in the past and the fact that in general, they are not correlated with mass extinctions suggests that in terms of ecological change, the answer is probably not a whole lot. I think the bigger question is what effect a reversal would have on our infrastructure. We know from any number of sources that reversals take ~1000-10,000 years to complete and are characterized by a gradual decrease in field intensity, that likely never goes to zero. I think the question is what are the vulnerabilities in our technological infrastructure, like power grids, communication satellites, etc to a decreased magnetic field strength. I know virtually nothing about the engineering tolerances for these devices, whether any thought has been put into designing them with idea of a decreased magnetic field, or if this is even a problem. Ultimately, determining the detailed magnitude (i.e. how low the field intensity may get on shorter time scales) and timescale of a past reversal is challenging, which translates into challenges in terms of knowing what we should plan for in the event of a future reversal. That aspect of the question is better posed to an engineer.

[–]MagnusRobot 83 points84 points  (46 children)

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I wonder how it will affect migrating animals, and other species that have sensitivity to Earth's magnetic field.

[–]atomfullereneAnimal Behavior/Marine Biology 74 points75 points  (23 children)

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They appear to have made it through previous magnetic field shifts just fine, which implies they have some mechanism for dealing with this.

Most animals use multiple methods for navigating. For example, birds are known to follow roads and fish utilize scent. Because of this, they may have lots of other options for navigating.

Plus, using magnetic fields for navigation doesn't even require that they remain stable over long time spans. Imagine a goose flying north...it's following a series of known landmarks, but hits a big fog bank. It could use a magnetic field, whatever the direction the field was facing, to continue in a straight line. The only thing that would throw it off is the field changing while it was in the cloud.

[–]thedailynathan 20 points21 points  (17 children)

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They appear to have made it through previous magnetic field shifts just fine

Curious, what evidence do we have through this? The parent post cited "no mass extinctions during magnetic shifts", but it's not like magnetic field dependent species are overwhelmingly common. Isn't it possible that plenty of these species die off every time the field shifts, but we just don't know about them?

[–]Mclean_Tom_ 10 points11 points  (11 children)

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My guess is that when you have these shifts, you would be able to tell when one happened last by some geological feature(s), then you could see of there were any mass extinctions at the same time using the fossils in the surrounding rock/rock of the same age.

[–]boringdude00 9 points10 points  (0 children)

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Yes, we can tell by looking at rocks, especially along the Atlantic floor where seafloor spreading occurs we can see the pattern in the volcanic rocks.

[–]thedailynathan 1 point2 points  (8 children)

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My point was, since not every animal relies on magnetism for survival (in contrast to say, oxygen levels or sunlight, for which we do see mass extinctions), it's hard to rule out that these species are surviving. Mass die-offs of magnet-sensitive species would not look like a mass extinction.

[–]caleeky 5 points6 points  (0 children)

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The average periodicity is supposedly ~400k years. This seems to me to be short enough that the probability of magnetic navigation would be low, if any species using it would go extinct as a result. That's a pretty hard selective pressure.

[–]Das_MimeRadio Astronomy | Galaxy Evolution 3 points4 points  (6 children)

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But mass die-offs of migratory birds (which are quite a lot of species) every million years or so would look pretty suspicious.

[–]FuguofAnotherWorld 5 points6 points  (5 children)

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You overestimate the fossil record. It is extremely fragmentary. Many whole species of animal have likely arisen and been destroyed without us finding so much as a single fossil. It could have happened many times and we wouldn't even have noticed so long as at least some fliers survived.

[–]Das_MimeRadio Astronomy | Galaxy Evolution 7 points8 points  (3 children)

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But if there were an extinction every single time the poles shifted? I doubt you'd see magnetic- based migration being all that common.

[–]BoiledEelsnMash 2 points3 points  (1 child)

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People wearing lenses that make everything upside down adapt in a certain period of time, I think it was less than 3 months. So, no matter how complex the visual cortex is, it somehow remaps itself.

So, a sense of magnet north or south that didn't jive, I think even a bird brain, which is still more complex than many "big iron" mainframes, could probably adapt. If you need a citation, they did things with training pigeons to be living visual detection systems on bombers.

http://faculty.washington.edu/gmobus/Mavric/Nonstationary/spie-paper.html

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDsQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fbi.snu.ac.kr%2FCourses%2F4Biotech04_2%2Fnn.ppt&ei=dakkVJW_DMuryASE34LgCQ&usg=AFQjCNECVEX11F4iPNanDvrlxAWTuVYzYg&bvm=bv.76247554,d.aWw

[–]HeavyMetalStallion 4 points5 points  (1 child)

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Even if they didn't have a mechanism, the ones who rely too much on the magnetic field would eventually go extinct due to the reversal and the ones who don't rely as much would prosper.

[–]dimtothesum 5 points6 points  (0 children)

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Plus, the link saying it takes 1000- 10000 years to complete would allow for adaption in birds that don't live longer than probably a few years.

[–]AK-Arby[S] 17 points18 points  (17 children)

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This is a good additive question, I know birds like Geese, and certain fish like Sharks are very sensitive to magnetics.

[–]Surf_Or_Die 30 points31 points  (5 children)

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Don't know about geese but sharks have been around for millions of years, they have survived countless shifts already.

[–]AK-Arby[S] 16 points17 points  (2 children)

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A valid point, however I still wonder how their patterns would alter. We are only recently beginning to understand sharks patterns, erratic geo-magnetics may throw all that out the window.

[–]ELFAHBEHT_SOOP 6 points7 points  (0 children)

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I think that completely depends on how sharks use their sensitivity to magnetism. If it's just for directional orientation purposes, that won't be affected that much because the drift will be too slow for it to have an effect on their day to day activities.

However, they could possibly use it in another completely unique way.

[–]Gargatua13013Regional geology and structural geology 7 points8 points  (0 children)

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Indeed, I wonder if such dimming of the magnetic fields and pole reversals might be one way migratory routes may change through time, for instance?

[–]Scientologist2a 25 points26 points  (2 children)

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Speculation:

  • the magnetic fields are shifting very slowly

  • Animals probably learn the magnetic field they are born into.

  • Therefore there would not be much long term effect on animals.

[–]AK-Arby[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

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while only speculation it is an accurate viewpoint, and makes logical sense


Thanks for the addition!

[–]starfries 8 points9 points  (0 children)

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[–]djzenmastak 9 points10 points  (5 children)

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dogs defecate in alignment with the magnetic field. could you imagine the magnetic field so weak that dogs could no longer detect it? they'll be spinning around in circles until death. poor dogs, nobody thinks of them.

[–]m-a-t-t_ 9 points10 points  (1 child)

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Wow... do you have any source for that astonishing revelation re dog poop?

[–]djzenmastak 3 points4 points  (0 children)

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[–]CowboyFlipflop 8 points9 points  (0 children)

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What?!

So not only should I worry about magnetic shifts, but now I have to worry about magnetic shits?

[–]ThisAccountsForStuff 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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We may find that migrating animals rely on other guidance than Earth's magnetic field. It's going to be an exciting time for scientific discovery.

[–]nitram9 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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If it indeed takes between 1000 to 10000 I'll bet they can either handle this kind of slow change already or they'll just evolve with the slowly evolving magnetic field. Obviously they must have successfully done so a number of times already.

[–]N8theGr8 512 points513 points  (162 children)

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Power grids won't be effected. A current is only induced when a conductor is in relative motion with a magnetic field. As slowly as the earth's magnetic field is likely to change, there will not be any noticeable effect. I'm an electronics technician who does large scale electrical grid analysis.

I would be more concerned with navigation than the electrical grids, but I'm not familiar with how our GPS and communications satellites orient themselves.

edit As per Wikipedia (and I'll gladly defer to an expert, should one appear) there appears to be little concern with regard to GPS satellites being adversely effected by a reversal of the Earth's magnetic field: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_navigation

edit2 I specifically meant that the power grids won't be affected by the collapse of the Earth's magnetic field. Once that happens, there could be other issues. I address CMEs further down in the post.

[–]frezik 220 points221 points  (68 children)

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What about additional solar radiation leaking through the weakened field?

[–]N8theGr8 131 points132 points  (63 children)

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I'll use the example of a coronal mass ejection (CME). There was a blackout in Quebec in 1989 due to a coronal mass ejection. You can read more about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm

The interactions between the magnetic field generated by the CME and the Earth's magnetic field caused Geomagnetically Induced Currents. You can read more about that here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetically_induced_current

It was the relative motion between the Earth's magnetic field and the power grid that induced those currents. I honestly don't know if the GICs would have been worse had the Earth's magnetic field been weaker, and I would only be speculating if I said one way or the other. edit With a lack of Earth's magnetic field, I would speculate that the GICs would be entirely dependent on the size, magnitude, and speed of a magnetic field generated by the sun, and that the effect would dissipate once that field has passed. /edit

I'm not a physicist, and there are a lot of variables at play here. For example, does the earth have any other methods for keeping out radiation? I feel that other forms of radiation would be more detrimental to humans biologically than detrimental to the power grid.

We typically get notifications from NOAA when an event is anticipated. There are also GIC monitoring stations attached to the grid to give us notice of when the levels begin to rise.

It would depend on the type of radiation, and how large the magnetic field ejected from the sun really is.

[–][deleted] 27 points28 points  (3 children)

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With a lack of Earth's magnetic field, I would speculate that the GICs would be entirely dependent on the size, magnitude, and speed of a magnetic field generated by the sun, and that the effect would dissipate once that field has passed.

You forget that it's only the dipole component that is flipping. This component is dominant now, but there are higher multipole components to the magnetic field too, so the earth would never lack a field entirely.

[–]standish_ 4 points5 points  (2 children)

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Got any more reading on this subject? I know nothing of the other types of field.

[–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

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You can find it in most standard works on geomagnetism, for example R.T. Merrill, et al., The magnetic field of the earth: paleomagnetism, the core, and the deep mantle, Academic Press (1996). Here are some short class notes I found on the web. If you can get it, here with some more recent improvements to the multipole models. Here is a short popularising article talking talking about the interactions between the different components, and how these can influence the dipole flip.

[–]wmeather 13 points14 points  (15 children)

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The 1989 event was big, but nothing compared to the 1859 event. Auroras were seen as far south as the Carribean. They were so bright miners in the rocky mountains thought it was morning, and in the northwest, people could read the paper by the light. Telegraph systems sparked, though some continued to send messages by disconnecting their power supplies.

Lloyds of London has estimated the cost of a similar event reoccurring to the US alone would be $0.6–2.6 trillion.

Basically, the end of the world as we know it.

[–]Onihikage 12 points13 points  (14 children)

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Detection is key, here. Most of the US power grid could actually withstand a Carrington Event today, but they would require early enough warning. Transformers and other infrastructure could absorb and withstand the current induced by the Event, but only if all the power plants shut down before that induction occurs.

To most effectively avoid that $0.6-2.6 trillion of potential damage, we need good satellite warning systems linked directly to all power grid production facilities. When a CME of sufficient size is detected, the grid would shut down until deemed safe to reactivate.

[–]standish_ 5 points6 points  (3 children)

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How long is the time frame from an ideal detection to when the storm actually hits?

I would thinks hours or days, no?

[–]Echo-42 8 points9 points  (2 children)

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If it's generally known that at times we have to shut down, hours will probably be enough. And concidering tha we at least get a days notice with our current methods it's most likely something we can deal with. While of course being very inconvenient.

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

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Doesn't it take about a week to shut down nuclear power plants? How would hours notice work in that case? Do we divert the energy away from the grid?

[–]cited 4 points5 points  (1 child)

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If it was enough to spark telegraph wires, it could certainly be enough to fry a lot of electronics just from the induced emf.

I'm not sure what you're getting at with "power plants need to shut down with satellite warning systems", and it seems like baseless speculation. If my plant gets a call from the load office to do an emergency shutdown, we can. The induced current would be what damages things - it could blow up a lot of transformers and breakers, and possibly a lot of damage to the power lines.

[–]Onihikage 3 points4 points  (0 children)

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The current induced would not usually be greater than the amount of current the grid is already set up to handle. Therefore, if the grid is off, the infrastructure will be able to handle it with only minor problems (aging transformers already near failure would likely be damaged, but newer ones are more resilient). However, if the grid is active, then nearly every single point of potential failure will be overloaded by the combined current from the grid power and that of the EM induction.

The current induced is related to the length of the wire. The transformer outside your house ought to be enough to shield the home from current induced in the main lines, and the current induced between the transformer and your house would not be significant enough to fry your appliances - though again, this is only if the grid has been shut down beforehand.

[–]Alpha_AF 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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A big enough CME (which isn't that rare) could fry power grids with a low enough magnetic field. The weakened field allows way more charged solar particles into the atmosphere.

[–]PorchPhysics 9 points10 points  (27 children)

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based on CrustalTrudger's statement that weakening magnetic fields are not correlated to mass extinction events, i would not think that the weakening magnetic field would change the radiation hitting the surface of the Earth, otherwise there would be a correlation there.

[–]notjustlurking 53 points54 points  (21 children)

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Not necessarily. Exposure to radiation could increase to the point where cancer becomes far more common, and at an earlier age without it causing mass extinction events.

The human race would not become extinct, but life may get more unpleasant for a large number of people.

I'm not implying that this will happen (I lack the expertise to make any such statement), I'm just stating that there is a lot of scope for unpleasantness short of things that cause mass extinctions.

[–]LEGALIZER 19 points20 points  (15 children)

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Back when I was a geology major, we talked a lot about this with our professor. You are correct in that radiation levels would increase to the point where we would start to see record high numbers of cancer in humans and animals all across the board due to that exposure to radiation from a weakened magnetic field.

It will eventually happen. The north pole has been moving a lot and at some point the poles are just going to flip.

[–]sarnald 5 points6 points  (11 children)

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You say they are just going to flip, however, how would we know when it's happening? Earlier in the thread it was stated that it would take 1,000-10,000 years to compete. Would the poles just move around the planet slowly? As in travel, or would they just eventually jump at a certain point in that time frame?

[–]deafy_duck 9 points10 points  (5 children)

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They'll slowly travel. Here Is a picture that traces it back several hundred years.

[–]AlmostTheNewestDad 3 points4 points  (2 children)

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Extinctions don't have to be quick or efficient. Species may have to endure a bunch of "ups & downs" over the course of any event of considerable time.

[–]EuphemismTreadmill 8 points9 points  (0 children)

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True, but we're talking about "mass extinction" which affects multiple species all at once, by definition.

[–]polymorphicprism 7 points8 points  (0 children)

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Some papers have argued for correlation with mass extinction events (particularly aquatic extinctions). It's difficult to estimate how much cosmic particle flux would increase in the temporary absence of a magnetic field, but the paper I found estimated a 14% increase based on polar flux, which is probably insignificant for mutation rates.

There are other important considerations, like the effect of cosmic particles on cloud-forming aerosols (first glances says this will also be a small contribution). There could be other important effects of a weakened magnetic field on biological functioning.

I wrote a paper on this for school, and in general, the mass extinction idea was popular in the 1960s-70s and then seemed to disappear. But I didn't find much refutation or reason for it's disappearance. It's just hard to study because any effects will be subtle.

[–]mrgonzalez 6 points7 points  (0 children)

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You're in an open science discussion contemplating the behaviour and effects of physical phenomena with scientific approach. You might just be an amateur, and you may not turn out to be correct, but you are a physicist :)

[–]AK-Arby[S] 43 points44 points  (49 children)

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Naturally with the pole shifting compasses would eventually be nearly useless, and then re-strengthen, but instead point south.

In regards to satellite position continuity, I only have Kerbal to go with my experience. I leave that to someone else.


Thank you for your kind contribution regardless.

[–]N8theGr8 27 points28 points  (16 children)

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An initial reading of Wikipedia seems to say that satellites use geo-positioning rather than relying on the Earth's magnetic field for their navigation, so it seems that there's no need to worry there, either, but I'll leave that to someone more knowledgeable than myself.

Mostly from this article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_navigation

[–]AK-Arby[S] 21 points22 points  (10 children)

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According to: http://www.gps.gov/systems/gps/space/

"The satellites in the GPS constellation are arranged into six equally-spaced orbital planes surrounding the Earth. Each plane contains four "slots" occupied by baseline satellites. This 24-slot arrangement ensures users can view at least four satellites from virtually any point on the planet."


This sounds like a very precision system...

[–]kodemage 47 points48 points  (6 children)

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Yes, a precise system which does not require any information about the earth's magnetic field to operate. All it needs is an accurate clock and that's not changing.

[–]dewdude 4 points5 points  (5 children)

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Clocks so accurate you can use a GPS sync as a time-reference that's about as accurate as an atomic clock; maybe even as accurate...but I do know they make a really good time reference.

[–]Aurailious 22 points23 points  (4 children)

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Pretty sure each satellite has an atomic clock on board and the USAF has to continually monitor and update them to account for time passing slower on earth then in orbit. So those tolerances must be pretty small for each satellite.

[–]VladimirZharkov 21 points22 points  (2 children)

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It's so precise in fact, they need to account for the time dilation the satellites experience while moving around the planet.

[–]theghostofm 33 points34 points  (1 child)

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The GPS System is amazing in that regard. As far as I know, it's the only thing which we had to develop based on principles of general and special relativity in order for it to work.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

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This is correct. The magnetic field is not needed to position satellites. However, it is important in keeping charged particles from the somar winf away from satellites. Without the strong dipole, satellites will need a lot more shielding, or will need to be replaced more frequently.

[–]SuperWolf 1 point2 points  (1 child)

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If it were to flip and happened fast, Do you think we'd just change our compass's? (change north to south) sounds easy to me.

[–]nxtm4n 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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I doubt we'd relabel them. We'd just have to get used to compasses pointing south instead or north.

[–]SchrodingersLunchboxNuclear Physics | Astrophysics 9 points10 points  (4 children)

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A current is only induced when a conductor is in relative motion with a magnetic field.

That's not entirely true. The Lenz effect generates an induced emf (and, by extension, an induced current) which opposes a change in magnetic flux. If the Earth's magnetic field weakens rapidly enough that the induced B-field subsequently induced a high enough emf to exceed the tolerances of the hardware in question, it could cause significant damage.

[–]N8theGr8 2 points3 points  (3 children)

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I'm completely in agreement with what you said. A collapsing magnetic field would induce a current, and is considered to be in relative motion with a stationary conductor. This is how transformers work, since the windings are electrically isolated. My whole point is that if it takes 1,000 years for the Earth's magnetic field to collapse, it wouldn't be shifting fast enough to induce any significant current on the grid.

[–]Dr_Dezz 3 points4 points  (2 children)

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There is strong geological evidence that once it start going wonki, the flip are ultra fast. I'm talking about 3 reversal in the space of time it took a lava block to cool down (approx 6-12 hours or so if I remember correctly). Those changes can be extremely localize as we will start to have multiple north and south pole. When they mentioned the 1,000 years, that's the time it will take to stabile into the reverse order.in the meantime some local flip can occur very rapidly. We know this because as lava cool it "register" the current magnetic field.

[–]frewpe 1 point2 points  (1 child)

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With a reversal rate of once per 2 hours you would only generate a field of 6kV in a conductor wrapped around the state of Texas. This is ~1mV/m. The magnetic field of earth is very weak and won't cause issues unless it were to collapse in only a few seconds.

[–]OfTheHive 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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What guage wire do I need to wrap Texas in to harness this sweet free energy source?

[–]apestate 13 points14 points  (5 children)

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no one is concerned about an induction event. The concern is that a weak, messy magnetic field will create areas more vulnerable to CME. Imagine a 4 pole earth field with one of the poles slowly migrating over Europe.

[–]N8theGr8 4 points5 points  (2 children)

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no one is concerned about an induction event.

Incorrect. Induction events are what cause the damage to the power grids, as I have specifically discussed.

The concern is that a weak, messy magnetic field will create areas more vulnerable to CME.

Please explain how a "weak, messy magnetic field" will "create areas more vulnerable to CME"? Vulnerable in what way?

I entered this thread because I could answer a question specifically about how the collapse of the Earth's magnetic field would effect the power grid. Since the power grid is most adversely affected by induction events, I'm really not sure what your comment is addressing.

[–]Shnazercise 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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This is correct. It worries how many of these posts seem to not understand some very simple principles about how this stuff works. First: the ma genetic poles are already drifting. Ever use a map? Did you line it up using a compass? No? Then don't worry about it, sheezus. Using an electronic (non-gps) device that uses a magnetic compass? Then it is either able to be calibrated, or it is specifically designed to be used only in a very narrow part of the earth (which it isn't, so don't worry about it, for fucks.). Worries that the poles will shift overnight and this extremely week field will induce a deadly current somewhere? Do you not know that the earth's magnetic field is generated by the movement of bajillions of tons of stuff in the earth's core, and that it doesn't just flossy-flop all over the place? If this is your concern, then why not worry about inducing a current in the wires wound around the speakers in your headphones when you turn your head? Okay, now what about the protection from cosmic and other radiation provided by the magnetic field - is this affected by a change in the poles? Or does that protection come from the ionosphere, and isn't really affected? This I'm not sure about! And was hoping someone would answer.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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This is indeed the main problem. Or rather, the second problem. The most damage would probably be done to satellite systems, which need the magnetic field as a protection from incomming charged particles.

[–]the__itis 3 points4 points  (1 child)

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GPS will not be impacted. It uses time-synchronization, distance calculation, and geometry to determine position. It operates independently of magnetic bearing.

[–]happyaccount55 3 points4 points  (1 child)

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Yeah, but doesn't running a current through a wire in a magnetic field create a force on the wire?

[–]N8theGr8 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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Yes.

Once the current is stable in the wire, the magnetic field will become stable as well. This will result in a stable force on the wire. In an AC current, however, the wire will resonate due to a shifting force.

However, the physical force on the wire is not the concern. The physical force due to the magnetic fields in question is not significant. The damage comes from the current that is induced when the Earth's magnetic field shifts, and is in flux. Then the field is in relative motion to the wire, and a current is induced in the conductor, even if not connected to a power source.

These currents could be significant enough to anneal the lines and cause them to sag (through I squared R losses), to develop overcurrent conditions on smaller grid components, and potentially create arcing and faults on more expensive equipment like transformers, components which are vital to the operations of the grid.

[–]ApatheticAbsurdist 1 point2 points  (1 child)

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Would the decreased magnetic field potentially reduce our natural shielding from solar flares? As was pointed out it doesn't seem to be enough to cause mass extinction in the past, but I'm under the impression that our power grid is more susceptible to solar flare and such activity (though I could be wrong).

[–]ADHD_Supernova 1 point2 points  (2 children)

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What about analog compasses? Wouldn't those become useless?

[–]matrixuniverses 3 points4 points  (0 children)

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During the time of the shift they would become more unreliable but after the shift has completed the orientation of the needle would be reversed. What I mean is that North would point south and South would point north. However, during the thousands of years that the shift is happening I'm pretty sure that compass manufacturers would figure it out

[–]avagar 2 points3 points  (1 child)

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I'm an electronics technician who does large scale electrical grid analysis.

I've been meaning to ask someone with knowledge in this area for some time about this.

As I understand it, when the New York City blackout of 1977 and the Northeast Blackout of 1965 happened, it was a failure of a few small breakers and relays that cascaded into a huge (and multi-state in the 1965 case) grid failure.

Now the corrections that have been made since have been able to address some of the causes of these events and should prevent a replay of those scenarios happening again.

However, in the rare case that we have a large CME that hits in just the right way, could it not still overload the US/Canada grid by causing multitudes of small failures across multiple grids, that could end up frying a great deal of the large transformers at substations in addition to widespread failures. Since those huge transformers are very expensive, take a long time to manufacture, and there is not a large amount of units in reserve, a 'perfect storm' kind of event could leave vast areas of North America without power for months?

I just want to also say the chances of such a perfect storm CME are very small, and I don't think there's much to worry about, but as a 15 year IT veteran, it's often my job to consider worst-case-scenarios when looking at an interconnected system. Not tin-foil hatting here, just curious to know what kind of things are different now from 40 years ago and what the systems can handle now.

[–]N8theGr8 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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The protection schemes that we have in place now are much more advanced than what we had back then. We specifically operate the grid in real-time and in all planning stages to prevent cascading failures.

That being said, there's only so much we can plan for with regard to a CME. I think it's going to boil down to hoping for the best and picking up whatever pieces remain.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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The main problem would probably be the exposure of satelites to increased particle fluxes. The non-dipole components will probably keep protecting ground based systems to a good degree.

[–]atomfullereneAnimal Behavior/Marine Biology 12 points13 points  (0 children)

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I've heard that the field might go multipolar when it weakens. If this happens, will we get aurora everywhere?

[–]AK-Arby[S] 10 points11 points  (1 child)

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Indeed, however the decrease in field intensity would most likely allow more cosmic rays and radiation through to ground level in isolated areas to begin, with larger areas to follow.. and back to isolated areas as the field restrengthens yes? Resulting in more common Auroras / electrical faults like you were mentioning?


Also, thank you for the reply

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Not to ground level, since only the dipole component of the field is gone.

[–]Nonethewiserer 3 points4 points  (0 children)

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What is the relationship between such infrastructures and the earth's magnetism? Why would they be affected, or why do you think they might be affected?

[–]diodi 4 points5 points  (0 children)

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There is lots of room between mass extinctions and what humans would consider crisis.

Hypothetical example: if average human lifespan (and lifespan of most long living animals) drops 10-30 years due to increased radiation, it's not going to show in fossil records as mass extinction.

[–]apopheniac1989 3 points4 points  (2 children)

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Related question: what causes magnetic field reversals? It is my understanding that the Earth's magnetic field is generated by the rotation of the liquid outer core, so does the entire outer core flip for some reason? Wouldn't it then be rotating against the direction of the Earth's rotation?

[–]AK-Arby[S] 9 points10 points  (1 child)

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Direct quote from the citation page: "Geophysicists do not yet fully understand the process of geomagnetic reversals, but they agree that our planet's field is like a dipole magnet. Earth's center consists of an inner core of solid iron and an outer core of liquid iron, a strong electrical conductor. The liquid iron in the outer core is buoyant, and as it heats near the inner core, it rises, cools off and then sinks. Earth's rotation twists this moving iron liquid and generates a self-perpetuating magnetic field with north and south poles.

Every so often the flow of liquid iron is disturbed locally and twists part of the field in the opposite direction, weakening it. What triggers these disturbances is unknown. It seems they are an inevitable consequence of a naturally chaotic system, and geophysicists observe them frequently in computer simulations."


TLDR: We arent quite sure, but they are frequently observed.

[–]NotAnAnticline 1 point2 points  (1 child)

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My understanding is that Earth's magnetic field protects us from solar wind. Wouldn't a weakening of the field put our atmosphere at risk to being, at least partially, "stripped" away from the planet like what we think happened on Mars?

[–]cheezstiksuppository 3 points4 points  (0 children)

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the magnetic field of the earth is very weak compared to the magnetic fields created by all of our electronics. The magnetic fields just created by the wires running by your house are already much much bigger.

Earths field according to wiki: 25 to 65 microtesla

compare this to how easy it is to make your own solenoid that can have a field of .2 Tesla. for just a few amps.

[–]JoeyJoeC 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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The best part is that you will be able to see the aroura almost everywhere.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Also, it has been known for a long time that (the dipole component of) the magnetic field is weakening. It's been doing that with some ups and downs for at least three millenia.

[–]DrunkFishBreatheAir 8 points9 points  (1 child)

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I don't know what a reversal would do to us, but one thing to note which is more just interesting than it is relevant, is that even if the field does begin to reverse, it likely won't fully reverse. About 9/10 attempted reversals abort in the first thousand years or so and return to the previous field polarity.

Source: http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/137/1/F1.short

[–]boomanwho 44 points45 points  (46 children)

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One of the main effects of the magnetic field is to redirect the solar wind of charged particles that is emitted from the sun by solar flares. This ends up creating the van Allen belts which actually cause a problem for space travel. It has been suggested that the earths atmosphere would be stripped away by the solar wind much faster without its magnetic field for protection and this is part of the reason that Mars has so little atmosphere. http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/personnel/russell/papers/mars_mag/

[–]VladimirZharkov 21 points22 points  (26 children)

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That's why Mars probably will never have an appreciable atmosphere. Its core has froze, and is no longer molten, so it's not inducing a magnetic field which protects the atmosphere from solar winds.

[–]shaveraStrong Force | Quark-Gluon Plasma | Particle Jets 7 points8 points  (5 children)

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What about Venus? It doesn't have much of a magnetic field, but has a very thick atmosphere

[–]VladimirZharkov 18 points19 points  (4 children)

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Excellent question! Venus is able to retain an atmosphere while Mars and mercury aren't for a few reasons. Venus's atmosphere is mainly composed of CO2, a very heavy molecule compared to O2 or N2. This heavy molecule coupled with a higher escape velocity on Venus means that it is considerably more difficult for solar wind to strip a molecule off of Venus. Venus also has many charged particles in its upper atmosphere. This combined with the strong winds make a kind of induced magnetic field

[–][deleted] 9 points10 points  (14 children)

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I would imagine if we're ever at a technological level high enough to attempt creating a working atmosphere on another planet, we'll be able to figure that out too.

[–]Neebat 17 points18 points  (9 children)

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That makes a lot of assumptions. Bacteria can clean up a lot of toxic crud and produce oxygen, but they can't make the core of a planet spin.

[–]bendvis 13 points14 points  (6 children)

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Terraforming Mars' atmosphere would involve quite a bit more than just converting CO2 to O2 via bacteria or other means. Atmospheric pressure on Mars is only 0.6% of that on Earth, so we would have to do a great deal of work in adding or releasing a full, new atmosphere.

This would be no small feat, to say the least. I agree with Broshank. If we're technologically capable of generating an atmosphere for a whole planet, we should also be able to figure out how to generate a magnetic field for said planet. This may not involve liquefying Mars' core, but perhaps might look like several surface-based field generators.

[–]loklanc 10 points11 points  (4 children)

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I always figured if we can create an atmosphere in a reasonable amount of time (say by redirecting comets) it's going to leak away much more slowly than we can create it, so we could maintain an atmosphere with periodic top ups kind of like how we keep shipping channels dredged nowadays.

[–]trebory6 2 points3 points  (3 children)

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Yes, but if you keep bombarding mars with comets, it's going to remain uninhabitable to an extent.

[–]FuguofAnotherWorld 3 points4 points  (2 children)

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Aerobrake them through the atmosphere then break them up into small pieces in orbit. Drop the pieces in chunks small enough to ablate away before they land. They'd be annoying, but not uninhabitable

[–]FLY1NGP4ND45 3 points4 points  (1 child)

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Or create a "strike zone" on an uninhabited area (Maybe the poles?)

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

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There's more to it than just producing oxygen though...The concept of terraforming another planet is extraordinarily complex and would require a whole lot of time and machinery we cannot comprehend, not to mention massive amounts of energy. If we can supply enough energy to a planet that far away to get it hot enough to support life, then we can probably harness the sun's energy somehow or something and get the core running again.

Such an endeavor would be pointless otherwise, because volcanoes are not active currently on Mars and in order for any atmosphere to be sustained you need to have volcanic activity to vent CO2 back into the atmosphere.

[–]demalo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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And a magnetic field caused by the spinning liquid core to block solar winds so the atmosphere doesn't get blown off in a few thousand years. Perhaps a moon sized body would cause tidal shifts inside the planet, enough to help keep the core 'liquid' after it's been reignited.

[–]PlaySalieri 1 point2 points  (3 children)

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What does a core being molten have to do with magnetic field?

[–]VladimirZharkov 2 points3 points  (2 children)

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If I remember correctly, the liquid iron in the core of the earth is flowing in such a way that it works kind of like a big solenoid. The Coriolis effect creates a swirling action that generates an electric field. This phenomenon works on the same principle electromagnets, electric generators and electric motors do.

[–]shaveraStrong Force | Quark-Gluon Plasma | Particle Jets 8 points9 points  (4 children)

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Venus is practically exactly the same size as Earth. Closer to the sun, even. It has very little to no magnetic field. And yet its atmosphere is plentiful.

[–]Durrok 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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On the scale of 1,000-10,000 tests years even if it increased dramatically would it still be an issue? I am not sure but I do know that in geological terms that is typically not a considered a very long time.

[–]what_are_you_saying 2 points3 points  (2 children)

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Wait does this mean no more northern lights?

[–]coolshifts 10 points11 points  (4 children)

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And since this has already happened several times to earth, this explains why the earth currently has no atmosphere. I understand now.

[–]boomanwho 10 points11 points  (0 children)

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When the magnetic field flips it is only close to zero for a relatively short time, not nearly enough to strip away the atmosphere. Any other questions?

[–]Importem 5 points6 points  (0 children)

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Do we know if a weak magnetic field will allow a greater amount of solar wind penetration to either a) our atmosphere or b) the altitude at which our satellites orbit? Would it be enough to affect either of those things?

[–]rambling_manifesto 10 points11 points  (5 children)

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High school earth science teacher here, and I just want to add my two cents to this fascinating thread.

There was a really good episode of NOVA a few years back all about this very subject. I'm sure anyone could find it on the PBS NOVA site, or You tube. If I recall the details correctly, they said in the event of a geomagnetic pole reversal, the earth's magnetic field would weaken, and then around six or so mini north and south magnetic "poles" would take the place of the regular north and south magnetic poles as they exist today. Then the flip would occur after that, with the normal north-south configuration reforming, only in the reverse orientation.

This re-orientation could happen over the course of only a few decades, if I recall correctly.

I think there wouldn't be much of an increase in harmful radiation as a result of the weakening of the earth's magnetic field because the earth's atmosphere does such a great job of shielding the surface from ionizing radiation. Remember that the geomagnetic field shifts and concentrates the incoming charged subatomic particles from the CME towards each of the polar regions, where they interact with the upper atmosphere, ionizing the atmospheric gasses, and causing them to flouress, resulting in the auroras. Most of the energy from the radiation is absorbed by the upper atmosphere and re-radiated as visible light. Inuit and Siberian people don't (as far as I know) suffer from increased cancer rates, even though they live under the northern lights all through the dark of winter months of every year.

Don't confuse the auroras with the ozone "holes" in the polar regions. Cancer rates might be increased in polar regions as the result of increased ultraviolate light as a component of sunlight during the summer, but not from the types of ionizing radiation that we're talking about from coronal mass ejections that cause auroras.

The scientists who were interviewed for the NOVA episode didn't seem to be too worried about negative economic impacts. They said our present-day electrical grid would be vulnerable to the kind of blackout that happened in Montreal, but we could adapt with enough advanced notice. Satellites would be vulnerable as well, but future satellites could be hardened against any increase in radiation that might occur in space.

They seemed to be more excited about the prospect of having the stunning auroras all over the globe every night, than fearful of any possibly negative consequences from it.

[–]Kumashirosan 5 points6 points  (3 children)

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stunning auroras all over the globe

I'd be excited about this too, so what if my cell phone doesn't work anymore, I didn't have it for a good 20 years of my life so I can live without it again just fine.

[–]Alway2535 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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For more detail on this, check out PBS's NOVA episode on the pole reversals: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/when-our-magnetic-field-flips.html

From what I recall from watching it a few years back, apparently, the shift is actually relatively sudden. The strength of the field decreases, the pole shifts by a significant amount for a relatively short period of time, then the strength slowly increases again over the course of several thousand years.

[–]EvOllj 4 points5 points  (4 children)

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geomagnetic reversals slightly increase UV-radiation in polar areas. there is a self-ballancing effect that also shields uv radiation with a much weaker magnetic field due to a dense enough atmosphere, not much more UV would reach the equatoreal surface. thats pretty much it.

[–]toddlecito 5 points6 points  (2 children)

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Thank you! I'm putting the brick down now and cancelling all my looting plans. Moving on.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

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There have been lots of polar reversals and little evidence to suggest they pose a threat to biological life. Our technology may have the hardest time dealing with it.