US investment banks ship shape, thought stuck in port

US investment banks are solid, even if profits are a little soft.
US investment banks are solid, even if profits are a little soft. Mark Lennihan
by The Lex Column

The big US banks are the only tall ships still seaworthy on the world's financial oceans. They have been overhauled nicely after the financial crisis and bruising encounters with the occasional "whale". Yet they remain stuck in the harbour.

Friday's bank earnings releases revealed declines at three key banks. Management will have to keep polishing the decks - with cost reductions - until a rise in interest rates enables higher pricing of loans.

JPMorgan showed the most pronounced decline of a trio completed by Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The bank earned $1.58 per share, a 6 per cent drop from last October. Still, in many areas the industry is doing well. Capital is strong and liquidity abounds, especially compared with European rivals, reflecting an improving US economy.

Even fickle markets and investment banking units have done well. Both Citi and JPMorgan reported higher revenue from fixed income trading, a recently beleaguered activity. Indeed, regulatory changes to the Libor markets helped lift trading revenue. Plus debt issuance was strong, as companies rushed to borrow before a potential Fed rate rise in December.

Wells Fargo does not have a large investment banking unit to lean on. For once, it will miss having that support. Its aggressive retail sales strategy has recently buckled under a scandal about falsifying customer accounts. Earnings declined in the quarter at the Californian bank and Credit Suisse estimates that a 25 basis point rise in interest rates would boost Wells' earnings next year by just 2 per cent - less than most other large-cap banks.

Banks have trailed the broader market this year. Creditors and regulators, not tied to bank equity performance, only see stable vessels. Shareholders remain resigned to weak earnings. They will only catch a tail wind once rates finally go up.

Financial Times