Welcome to The Spectator’s live coverage of the 2015 general election results. We provided results and analysis overnight and throughout the day. You can read all the coverage below.

Key points:

  • David Cameron remains PM —He has won a majority and has visited Buckingham Palace for an audience with the Queen. The Conservatives have won 331 seats. In an exclusive revealed by The Spectator, Cameron told Conservative HQ staffers this morning that ‘this is the sweetest victory of them all’.
  • Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage have resigned as leaders of their parties.
  • SNP has swept Scotland — The SNP now have 56 MPs in Scotland, while the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats each have one.
  • Casualties: Ed Balls, Vince Cable, Danny Alexander, Douglas Alexander, Nigel Farage, Jim Murphy, Esther McVey, Simon Hughes, Lynne Featherstone, Jo Swinson, George Galloway and Mark Reckless.

21:44: Welcome to The Spectator’s live coverage of the 2015 general election results. Lara Prendergast and Sebastian Payne will be anchoring your live blog along with commentary from Spectator contributors including Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman, Steerpike, Rod Liddle and many more. 

The first major event of the evening will be the exit poll, due at 10pm as soon as the polls close. Until then, hang tight!

21:47: Rod Liddle: Fever pitch excitement, huh? Here’s the lead headline from the Daily Mail online right now:

Inside the secret world of the Geisha: Intimate photos reveal how Japanese women maintain 400-year-old traditions in modern world

Meanwhile Channel Four is dragging through its dismal ‘alternative’ general election programme.

We also await the first result – a Labour hold, one would assume, in Houghton and Sunderland South. Watch out for the Ukip vote – not much more than 1,000 in 2010. If they get 5,000 that could spell trouble for Labour in the east. All those new Ukip votes – if there are any – are Labour transfers.

21:54: Rod Liddle — Fever pitch excitement, huh? Here’s the lead headline from the Daily Mail online right now:

Inside the secret world of the Geisha: Intimate photos reveal how Japanese women maintain 400-year-old traditions in modern world

Meanwhile Channel Four is dragging through its dismal ‘alternative’ general election programme.

We also await the first result – a Labour hold, one would assume, in Houghton and Sunderland South. Watch out for the Ukip vote – not much more than 1,000 in 2010. If they get 5,000 that could spell trouble for Labour in the east. All those new Ukip votes – if there are any – are Labour transfers.

21:55: Rod Liddle — Fever pitch excitement, huh? Here’s the lead headline from the Daily Mail online right now:

Inside the secret world of the Geisha: Intimate photos reveal how Japanese women maintain 400-year-old traditions in modern world

Meanwhile Channel Four is dragging through its dismal ‘alternative’ general election programme.

We also await the first result – a Labour hold, one would assume, in Houghton and Sunderland South. Watch out for the Ukip vote – not much more than 1,000 in 2010. If they get 5,000 that could spell trouble for Labour in the east. All those new Ukip votes – if there are any – are Labour transfers.

22:01: The exit poll is out and the Conservative are forecast to be the largest party:

Conservative: 316
Labour: 239
SNP: 58
Lib Dem: 10
PC: 4
Ukip: 2
Green: 2

22:02: The exit poll is out and the Conservative are forecast to be the largest party:

Conservative: 316

Labour: 239

SNP: 58

Lib Dem: 10

Ukip: 2

22:03: The exit poll is out and the Conservatives are forecast to be the largest party:

Conservative: 316
Labour: 239
SNP: 58
Lib Dem: 10
Ukip: 2

22:06: Isabel Hardman: Most Tories I’ve spoken to in the past 24 hours were saying that 290 would be good. This exit poll is beyond their wildest dreams and will get them very, very excited indeed. It may end up being far more exciting than the actual result, but on the basis of the poll at least, this is resoundingly better than even the most tiggerish of Tories were expecting.

22:06: James Forsyth: The exit poll is a shock, it suggests that the Tories are the largest party on 316 seats, with Labour on 239, Lib Dems 10, Ukip 2, SNP 58. If this is correct, DUP support alone would be enough for the Tories to command a majority in the Commons.

 Now, there’ll be those expressing doubts about it and the numbers are certainly a surprise and the Lib Dem number in particular looks odd. But it is worth remembering how the 2010 one got the result almost spot on despite so many of us questioning us at the time.  

22:10:

Steerpike: While the Conservatives have been predicted 316 seats in the exit poll, David Cameron’s former director of strategy Andrew Cooper is feeling rather downhearted about the situation. Baron Cooper of Windrush has tweeted to say that it’s ‘all going to end in tears’

22:11: James Forsyth — Up to now, I had always assumed that the Tory party would back another coalition. But if this exit poll is right, then minority government will be back on the Tory table.

22:12: Steerpike: While the Conservatives have been predicted 316 seats in the exit poll, David Cameron’s former director of strategy Andrew Cooper is feeling rather downhearted about the situation. Baron Cooper of Windrush has tweeted to say that it’s ‘all going to end in tears’

22:17: Paddy Ashdown is being interview by Andrew Neil on the BBC now. He has said  ‘if this exit is right, I will publicly eat my hat’ and said ‘wait till the morning’ to see what’s really happened.

22:17: Isabel Hardman — Does the exit poll suggest the pollsters were wrong? Well, for the next few hours everyone will be wondering that. But they also had large numbers of undecideds right up until the last minute, which they may have been reallocating on incorrect assumptions. 

22:18: James Forsyth: Up to now, I had always assumed that the Tory party would back another coalition. But if this exit poll is right, then minority government will be back on the Tory table.

22:20: We also have another exit poll from YouGov, who have polled 20,000 people. It suggests a very different picture:

Conservative: 284
Labour: 263
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 31
Ukip: 2
PC: 3
Green: 1

22:20:

Steerpike: While the Conservatives have been predicted 316 seats in the exit poll, David Cameron’s former director of strategy Andrew Cooper is feeling rather downhearted about the situation. Baron Cooper of Windrush has tweeted to say that it’s ‘all going to end in tears’

22:20: Isabel Hardman: Does the exit poll suggest the pollsters were wrong? Well, for the next few hours everyone will be wondering that. But they also had large numbers of undecideds right up until the last minute, which they may have been reallocating on incorrect assumptions. 

22:21: We also have another exit poll from YouGov, who have polled 20,000 people. It suggests a very different picture:

Conservative: 284
Labour: 263
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 31
Ukip: 2
PC: 3
Green: 1

22:23: Isabel Hardman — Tonight looks dreadful for the Lib Dems. Ten seats is far, far below what they were hoping for, which was around 25. If they do end up with anything near as low as this, the party will face calls to avoid going into government and rebuild while in Opposition.  But if it does sign up to a coalition with David Cameron, its powers will naturally be severely limited. It cannot have 10 ministers as 100 per cent of the party being on the government payroll would be ridiculous and certainly wouldn’t be something the Conservative 1922 Committee would weather. 

It would also be very difficult for Clegg – if he does survive a result this bad – to argue that he should get 50 per cent representation on the Quad when his party is bringing so few MPs to the table. But it would be bringing enough MPs to get the Tories into government, and that is powerful.

22:26: Steerpike: Boris Johnson’s sister Rachel is ready to drop her call for the Tories to name her brother as their next leader. The Mail on Sunday columnist says that if the exit poll is correct about the number of seats the Tories will get, she will ‘mothball’ her pre-planned tweet which says ‘it’s all gone tits up call for Boris’. 

22:29: Isabel Hardman — Lib Dems are saying that either the poll is right and they missed a big elephant trampling around their constituencies, or it is wrong. Which sounds pretty obvious, but it shows that if the exit poll is right, then something will have been going on that even those on the ground weren’t aware of.

22:29: Steerpike: Boris Johnson’s sister Rachel is ready to drop her call for the Tories to name her brother as their next leader. The Mail on Sunday columnist says that if the exit poll is correct about the number of seats the Tories will get, she will ‘mothball’ her pre-planned tweet which says ‘it’s all gone tits up call for Boris’. 

22:30: The Labour press office has already begun its rebuttal to the BBC exit poll:

Here is the statement:

It’s been close all the way through – and exit polls have been wrong in the past. YouGov is very different from the BBC’s. The Coalition came into the election with a majority of 73 and even if the BBC exit poll is right, that has been all-but wiped out. Who forms the next government is who can carry the confidence of the House of Commons.

22:30: Fraser Nelson — A pollster source has this take: ‘This could be like 1992, we may have all got it wrong.’ Personally, I’m with Nicola Sturgeon: it’s time to be cautious. The exit poll is so utterly at odds with the bookmakers and opinion pollsters that it’s certainly an outlier: Lib Dems at ten seats? Really? I remember the 2010 exit poll cutting to the TV break when the presenter said to us: ‘This poll is obvious bollocks so let’s not discuss it too much’. It was spot on, which is why tonight’s is being taken so seriously (hence the mass explosion of expletives on Twitter). 

If it’s true, I’m not sure Cameron needs the LibDems, and certainly shouldn’t give Clegg any decent portfolios if they renew their vows. Crosby will be hailed as a genius (remember his London mayor election: a dull campaign which came good in the end?) and Cameron will have substantial political capital. Or by 5am we may find out that the opinion polls are right and the exit poll baloney. 

But for these next four hours, Conservatives have – for the first time in this campaign – a factual basis on which to imagine that it will all come good. The exit poll has, to me, undermined the massive, thrilling uncertainty underlining this whole election. So stay tuned to our live blog. Anything could happen in the next six hours.

22:30:

Steerpike: While the Conservatives have been predicted 316 seats in the exit poll, David Cameron’s former director of strategy Andrew Cooper is feeling rather downhearted about the situation. Baron Cooper of Windrush has tweeted to say that it’s ‘all going to end in tears’

22:32: Fraser Nelson: A pollster source has this take: ‘This could be like 1992, we may have all got it wrong.’ Personally, I’m with Nicola Sturgeon: it’s time to be cautious. The exit poll is so utterly at odds with the bookmakers and opinion pollsters that it’s certainly an outlier: Lib Dems at ten seats? Really? I remember the 2010 exit poll cutting to the TV break when the presenter said to us: ‘This poll is obvious bollocks so let’s not discuss it too much.’ It was spot on, which is why tonight’s is being taken so seriously (hence the mass explosion of expletives on Twitter). 

If it’s true, I’m not sure Cameron needs the LibDems, and certainly shouldn’t give Clegg any decent portfolios if they renew their vows. Crosby will be hailed as a genius (remember his London mayor election: a dull campaign which came good in the end?) and Cameron will have substantial political capital. Or by 5am we may find out that the opinion polls are right and the exit poll baloney. 

But for these next four hours, Conservatives have – for the first time in this campaign – a factual basis on which to imagine that it will all come good. The exit poll has, to me, undermined the massive, thrilling uncertainty underlining this whole election. So stay tuned to our live blog. Anything could happen in the next six hours.

22:36: James Forsyth — Labour sources are pointing to a YouGov exit poll which has very different numbers from the broadcasters’ exit poll. But it is worth noting even on the YouGov, Tories, Lib Dems and DUP would command a majority in the Commons if they joined together

Joyous Tory MP texts that the SNP has wiped Labour out in Scotland and England, but again only based on the exit poll.

22:37: The Labour press office has already begun its rebuttal to the BBC exit poll:

Here is the statement on the exit poll:

It’s been close all the way through – and exit polls have been wrong in the past. YouGov is very different from the BBC’s. The Coalition came into the election with a majority of 73 and even if the BBC exit poll is right, that has been all-but wiped out. Who forms the next government is who can carry the confidence of the House of Commons.

22:37: Camilla Swift - There’s a bizarre ‘The Krypton Factor’ style game show going on at the BBC. The battle appears to be over which teenager can get their box to the counting team first, with T-shirt wearing, box-wielding teens running back and forth behind the presenters. Obviously, as Matthew Bailey blogged earlier, getting ‘bums on seats’ is important for every broadcaster, be they publicly funded or otherwise.  But is a gameshow-style competition the way to go? Who knows. After all, the BBC will have the big names as well. In the meantime, Channel 4 have Paxman balanced on the edge of a desk, while bookies and comedians have their say, with some gobbets from one of their prime-time shows, Googlebox, interspersed. What would the Great British public rather be watching? The viewing stats alone will tell.

22:37: Steerpike — Boris Johnson’s sister Rachel is ready to drop her call for the Tories to name her brother as their next leader. The Mail on Sunday columnist says that if the exit poll is correct about the number of seats the Tories will get, she will ‘mothball’ her pre-planned tweet which says ‘it’s all gone tits up call for Boris’. 

22:40: Steerpike: While the Conservatives have been predicted 316 seats in the exit poll, David Cameron’s former director of strategy Andrew Cooper is feeling rather downhearted about the situation. Baron Cooper of Windrush has tweeted to say that it’s ‘all going to end in tears’:

22:41: Camilla Swift - There’s a bizarre ‘The Krypton Factor’ style game show going on at the BBC. The battle appears to be over which teenager can get their box to the counting team first, with T-shirt wearing, box-wielding teens running back and forth behind the presenters. Obviously, as Matthew Bailey blogged earlier, getting ‘bums on seats’ is important for every broadcaster, be they publicly funded or otherwise.  But is a gameshow-style competition the way to go? Who knows. After all, the BBC will have the big names as well. In the meantime, Channel 4 have Paxman balanced on the edge of a desk while bookies and comedians have their say, with some gobbets from one of their prime-time shows, Googlebox, interspersed. What would the Great British public rather be watching? The viewing stats alone will tell.

22:41: Isabel Hardman — Lib Dems are saying that either the poll is right and they missed a big elephant trampling around their constituencies, or it is wrong. Which sounds pretty obvious, but it shows that if the exit poll is right, then something will have been going on that even those on the ground weren’t aware of. Meanwhile Nicola Sturgeon is being cautious:

22:49: James Forsyth report Labour have now toughened up their line on the exit poll saying, ‘We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrongs to us’. We’ll have to wait and see if Labour or the exit poll is right.

22:51: First result is in Sunderland South is a LAB HOLD.

Labour: 21,218, Ukip: 8,280, Conservative: 7,105, Green: 1,095, Lib Dem: 791. 

22:52: First result is in Sunderland South is a LAB HOLD.

Labour: 21,218, Ukip: 8,280, Conservative: 7,105, Green: 1,095, Lib Dem: 791. 

22:53: James Forsyth — The line coming from the Tories is that David Cameron will always act in the national interest to form a strong and stable government, which reads to me like CCHQ suggesting that they favour a coalition or full confidence-and-supply deal over minority government.

One of the big challenges for Labour HQ tonight is to maintain discipline, to stop people sounding off based on the exit poll.

If the SNP really have taken all of Scottish Labour’s seats, that’ll make northern Labour MPs far more nervous about Ukip coming second to them as they just have in Sunderland South 

22:54: James Forsyth report Labour have now toughened up their line on the exit poll saying, ‘We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrongs to us’. We’ll have to wait and see if Labour or the exit poll is right.

listen to ‘John Curtice on the exit polls’ on audioBoom

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23:02: Sebastian Payne — The result in Sunderland South has shown a seven per cent swing from Labour to Ukip — a solid start to Ukip’s hopes of coming second in 75-100 seats in the north. John Curtice said on the BBC there was a predicted swing of five per cent to Labour from the Tories but Labour haven’t even managed that. Of course, there was no chance Ukip or anyone else would take this seat from Labour. 

23:04: Tomorrow’s Daily Mail is splashing that David Cameron is ‘heading back to Number 10′ 

Tomorrow’s Sun is also suggesting it’s going to be a good night for the Tories: 

23:05: James Forsyth report Labour have now toughened up their line on the exit poll saying, ‘We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrongs to us’. We’ll have to wait and see if Labour or the exit poll is right.

https://audioboom.com/boos/3160504-john-curtice-on-the-exit-polls

23:07: Steerpike – Be prepared for some interesting sights this morning once all the results are in. The Telegraph‘s Dan Hodges has promised to streak in London depending on the number of votes Ukip receive. Now Lord Ashdown has volunteered to eat his hat if the exit poll is correct that the Lib Dems only win 10 seats. To make matters worse, Alastair Campbell has just threatened to eat his kilt if Labour only win 239 seats. Let’s just hope he won’t be wearing the kilt in question. Perish the thought.
<script

23:09: Steerpike – Be prepared for some interesting sights tomorrow morning once all the results are in. The Telegraph‘s Dan Hodges has promised to streak in London depending on the number of votes Ukip receive. Now Lord Ashdown has volunteered to eat his hat if the exit poll is correct that the Lib Dems only win 10 seats. To make matters worse, Alastair Campbell has just threatened to eat his kilt if Labour win 239 seats or less. Let’s just hope he won’t be wearing the kilt in question. Perish the thought.

23:09: James Forsyth – The first bit of Labour dissent of the night, Peter Mandelson has said that if the exit poll is right it ‘would be very difficult indeed’ for Ed Miliband to remain Labour leader. Worth remembering that Ed Miliband said, when running for Labour leader, that he wouldn’t bring Peter Mandelson back as he believed in ‘dignity in retirement’.

23:15: Steerpike – Be prepared for some interesting sights tomorrow morning once all the results are in. The Telegraph‘s Dan Hodges has promised to streak in London depending on the number of votes Ukip receive. Now Lord Ashdown has volunteered to eat his hat if the exit poll is correct that the Lib Dems only win 10 seats. To make matters worse, Alastair Campbell has just threatened to eat his kilt if Labour win 239 seats or less. Let’s just hope he won’t be wearing the kilt in question. Perish the thought.

23:30: Steerpike – Be prepared for some interesting sights this morning once all the results are in. The Telegraph‘s Dan Hodges has promised to streak in London depending on the number of votes Ukip receive. Now Lord Ashdown has volunteered to eat his hat if the exit poll is correct that the Lib Dems only win 10 seats. To make matters worse, Alastair Campbell has just threatened to eat his kilt if Labour only win 239 seats. Let’s just hope he won’t be wearing the kilt in question. Perish the thought.

23:31: James Forsyth – If this exit poll is right and we’re going to have a Tory government but the SNP is taking 58 out of Scotland’s 59 seats, then it is imperative that Cameron pushes for federalism for the UK. It is now the best, and perhaps the only, way to preserve the Union.

23:33: Isabel Hardman — John Whittingdale has just told ITV News that if the exit poll is right then David Cameron will continue as Prime Minister. There is an assumption in some quarters that his party would try to get rid of him if he didn’t get a majority again, but the mood in the party seems to be to hunker down and do whatever is necessary to get the Tories back into government and then start causing Cameron trouble. 

One thing to watch out for is how Cameron treats his party in the next few days. He probably could get a coalition past a secret ballot of the 1922 Committee, which its lieutenants are pushing for, but those around him seem keen to brief that there will just be a show of hands. This would not be the best way of stopping dissent from breaking out once the party is in government. One senior Tory says ‘if a second coalition is on the cards, honesty and a dose of good humour between the PM and the Parliamentary Party will lay the foundations for success’.

23:35: Sebastian Payne — Ukip has come second in Washington and Sunderland, with a 16pt increase on its 2010 vote share. If this continues across many other seats in the North, this could be one of the big stories of the night.

23:36: Isabel Hardman - John Whittingdale has just told ITV News that if the exit poll is right then David Cameron will continue as Prime Minister. There is an assumption in some quarters that his party would try to get rid of him if he didn’t get a majority again, but the mood in the party seems to be to hunker down and do whatever is necessary to get the Tories back into government and then start causing Cameron trouble. 

One thing to watch out for is how Cameron treats his party in the next few days. He probably could get a coalition past a secret ballot of the 1922 Committee, which its lieutenants are pushing for, but those around him seem keen to brief that there will just be a show of hands. This would not be the best way of stopping dissent from breaking out once the party is in government. One senior Tory says ‘if a second coalition is on the cards, honesty and a dose of good humour between the PM and the Parliamentary Party will lay the foundations for success’.

23:40: James Forsyth – In a defensive performance on the BBC just now, Ed Balls has talked about the Ulster Unionists – when it is the DUP who’ll have 8 or 9 Northern Irish MPs. It is a small error but given how pivotal the DUP could be, it is a silly one to make.

23:42: Steerpike – Tim Montgomerie has raised a good point. If the exit poll is correct and Labour are lagging behind the Conservatives, what will become of the #EdStone? Lest we forget, Miliband has commissioned an 8ft 6in stone that he plans to install in the rose garden of Number 10 if he is elected. If the poll is correct, the stone may need a new home. Mr S is happy to pass on any offers to the Labour Press Office.

23:45: James Forsyth – Watching Labour figures being interviewed on TV, I can’t help but think Labour would be better off saying the exit poll is wrong than trying to argue that Miliband could govern despite Labour having only 239 MPs and with Cameron only 7 seats away from a Commons majority.

23:51: Sebastian Payne — I’m hearing that the turnout in South Thanet was ‘ginormous’. But those on the Ukip campaign appear to be unsure whether this was in support for Nigel Farage or his opponents. With the exit poll predicting two seats for Ukip, Farage could still be joining Douglas Carswell in Parliament.

23:51: Rod Liddle – If the exit poll is anywhere near correct, Miliband should resign at 0900 tomorrow and Labour start to remember why it exists.

Why is Alastair Campbell still given time by the BBC, by the way?

23:53: James Forsyth – In a defensive performance on the BBC just now, Ed Balls has talked about the Ulster Unionists – when it is the DUP who’ll have 8 or 9 Northern Irish MPs. It is a small error but given how pivotal the DUP could be, it is a silly one to make.

23:58: Steerpike – The BBC is reporting rumours that George Galloway is going to lose his Bradford seat. Mr S will be paying very close attention to this one. 

23:59: Steerpike – Mr S is keeping a tally tonight of the candidates who will have to pay their deposit back. Any candidate who gains less than 5 per cent of the vote in their desired constituency faces a fine of £500. So far the Liberal Democrats face the largest bill. So bad in fact, that there is now a Twitter account dedicated to the party’s financial misfortune. @LibDemDeposits is offering a running commentary of their troubles while Steerpike will be keeping you updated on all fines across the board.

0:02: The Guardian is reporting that Tory sources are ‘quietly confident’ about their chances in South Thanet.

0:03: James Forsyth — At the weekend, a senior Ukip figure told me that they were taking lumps out of the Labour vote. I was very sceptical at the time. But judging by the exit poll and the first few results, it turns out that they might have been right after all.  

0:09: James Forsyth: So, Ashcroft is saying that his poll today is 34% Tory, 31% Labour which he says is inconsistent with the exit poll. But Tory sources felt that a 3 point national lead plus incumbency would get them to, roughly, 290.  

0:13: Steerpike – Be prepared for some interesting sights this morning once all the results are in. The Telegraph‘s Dan Hodges has promised to streak in London depending on the number of votes Ukip receive. Now Lord Ashdown has volunteered to eat his hat if the exit poll is correct that the Lib Dems only win 10 seats. To make matters worse, Alastair Campbell has just threatened to eat his kilt if Labour only win 239 seats. Let’s just hope he won’t be wearing the kilt in question. Perish the thought.

0:15: Steerpike – Be prepared for some interesting sights this morning once all the results are in. The Telegraph‘s Dan Hodges has promised to streak in London depending on the number of votes Ukip receive. Now Lord Ashdown has volunteered to eat his hat if the exit poll is correct that the Lib Dems only win 10 seats. To make matters worse, Alastair Campbell has just threatened to eat his kilt if Labour only win 239 seats. Let’s just hope he won’t be wearing the kilt in question. Perish the thought.

0:15: James Forsyth – In a defensive performance on the BBC just now, Ed Balls has talked about the Ulster Unionists – when it is the DUP who’ll have 8 or 9 Northern Irish MPs. It is a small error but given how pivotal the DUP could be, it is a silly one to make.

0:16: James also says: Interestingly, The Guardian’s political editor Patrick Wintour, one of the most sober minded journalists around and one of the best connected on the Labour side, is now saying that he thinks exit poll is right because the Ukip vote in the marginals has gone to Tories.

0:19: Isabel Hardman – I have intelligence from within Ukip that Nigel Farage has not won South Thanet.

0:20: Steerpike – Over to the Institute of Directors’ election party where Rory Bremner is the guest of honour. Bremner is predicting Red Ed’s departure after the disappointing exit poll for Labour. ‘David Miliband is on his way back from America,’ the impressionist says. Worst still, Bremner reckons Ed Balls might lose his seat. A suggestion that has gone down rather well with the business crowd at the IOD.

0:20: Isabel Hardman: I have intelligence from within Ukip that Nigel Farage has not won South Thanet.

0:22: Sebastian Payne — I’m hearing that Labour is convinced they are still going to take Hove from the Tories — despite BBC’s predictions.

0:24: James Forsyth — If Nigel Farage has lost Thanet South, as the rumours has it, then this is an even better night for the Tories. Ukip without Farage will be a far less formidable political force. The Tories can then, realistically, start to think about how to reunite the right. Also, Ukip’s progress against Labour in the north will strengthen the hand of those in the party who want to move it in a more left-wing, populist direction.    

0:25: Isabel Hardman — I have intelligence from within Ukip that Nigel Farage has not won South Thanet.

0:35: James also adds that Labour saying the fact that the exit poll is predicting that the Greens will win Norwich South shows the exit is off.

0:42: James Forsyth – Ed Miliband famously wanted to move on from New Labour. But out spinning for Labour tonight are two of the most recognisable faces of New Labour, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson.

And on another note, the Tories increased their majority in Swindon North, which will reassure those who did the exit poll. As Philip Cowley points out:

0:46: Isabel Hardman - Justin Tomlinson has held Swindon North for the Tories. He is well-respected among colleagues as an energetic campaigner. He is also frequently called ‘Justin Timberlake’ by mistake, including by David Cameron. He has increased his majority, which either suggests a good night for the Tories – or that Tomlinson is just a good campaigner.

0:50: Sebastian Payne — Theresa May is being grilled on the BBC now, saying pretty much nothing of interest. She is batting aside questions on any potential coalition negotiations and avoiding her own leadership ambitions. The Tories appear to be playing down the exit poll, letting the results speak for themselves. 

0:55: Sebastian Payne — Conservative HQ have briefed out their first line of the night, on the result in Swindon North: 

Tories hold with an increased majority – up from 7,060 to 11,786.  This was 102 on Labour’s target list but their vote share even DROPPED here by 2.7 per cent

0:57: James Forsyth – Ed Miliband famously wanted to move on from New Labour. But out spinning for Labour tonight are two of the most recognisable faces of New Labour, Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson.

And on another note, the Tories increased their majority in Swindon North, which will reassure those who did the exit poll.

1:01: Isabel Hardman - Labour sources are saying they have lost all Lanarkshire seats. This would be stunning if true as this area is solid Labour. It would suggest that the exit poll is correct.

1:03: James Forsyth: Justine Greening slightly increases her majority in Putney, considering London was meant to be worst bit of England for the Tories striking​.

If things weren’t going so well for the Tories, this very good Justine Greening speech about the importance of social mobility and opportunity would be seen as the start of a leadership bid. Greening, who went to a Rotherham comprehensive, hasn’t been used much by the Tories in the campaign. But this speech was a reminder that her blue collar Toryism is politically potent. 

1:05: James Forsyth — Justine Greening slightly increases her majority in Putney, considering London was meant to be worst bit of England for the Tories striking​.

If things weren’t going so well for the Tories, this very good Justine Greening speech about the importance of social mobility and opportunity would be seen as the start of a leadership bid. Greening, who went to a Rotherham comprehensive, hasn’t been used much by the Tories in the campaign. But this speech was a reminder that her blue collar Toryism is politically potent. 

1:05: Sebastian Payne — Rob Ford, who was one of the psephologists involved in the exit poll, says the result so far have underestimated what has happened, based on the results so far:

1:10: Sebastian Payne — David Dimbleby has just said that he is hearing that George Galloway has lost Bradford West — although no results are in yet. There is a recount currently underway.

Tim Shipman, political editor of the Sunday Times, is also reporting that Simon Hughes has probably lost Bermondsey, one of the ‘Portillo moments’ I wrote about earlier:

1:10: Steerpike: After Louise Mensch’s postal vote didn’t arrive in America on time, the former ‘Cameron Cutie’ booked a flight to the UK in order to cast her vote. Now in the country, Mensch is ready to continue her long running spat with George Galloway. A recount has been requested in Bradford West and Mensch is – unsurprisingly – on the edge of her seat.  

1:18: James Forsyth - Another poor result for Labour, Sadiq Khan’s vote only up 4% and the Tory candidate has increased his party’s share by 3%. In London, I’d have expected Labour share to increase by far more than that.

1:18: Steerpike: After Louise Mensch’s postal vote didn’t arrive in America on time, the former ‘Cameron Cutie’ booked a flight to the UK in order to cast her vote. Now in the country, Mensch is ready to continue her long running spat with George Galloway. A recount has been requested in Bradford West and Mensch is – unsurprisingly – on the edge of her seat.  

1:20: James Forsyth: Tories think they are breathing right down Vince Cable’s neck in Twickenham. If the Tories do unseat the Business Secretary, it will be a quite remarkable result.

1:25: James Forsyth: Tories think they are breathing right down Vince Cable’s neck in Twickenham. If the Tories do unseat the Business Secretary, it will be a quite remarkable result.

We also have a swing to the Tories in Battersea, now even with that seat becoming posher that is a blow to Labour as London was meant to be its banker

1:33: James Forsyth - The case for Tessa Jowell, a Blairite, as Labour candidate for Mayor of London is getting stronger by the minute, London doesn’t appear to have moved left in the way that Sadiq Khan and Ed Miliband assumed it had.

1:34: Sebastian Payne — Conservative HQ are buoyant about the results in Battersea:

Labour threw resources at this seat and it was on their target list but Conservative majority increased from 5,977 to 7,938. 
And there was a 1.7 per cent swing from Lab to Con

1:44: James Forsyth – Looks like Tony Blair’s prediction to the Economist at the end of last year that this will be a traditional British left-right election with the traditional result might turn out to be right. The former prime minister said:

The result in 2015, he quips, could well be an election “in which a traditional left-wing party competes with a traditional right-wing party, with the traditional result”. Asked if he means a Tory win, Mr Blair confirms: “Yes, that is what happens.”

1:47: Isabel Hardman – Sources tell me that Education Secretary Nicky Morgan is comfortably safe in Loughborough. This isn’t surprising as she was ahead in the Ashcroft poll, but again it will be interesting to see the numbers in this seat.

Soon we will also start hearing from some of the safest Labour seats in Scotland. By the sounds of things, we will hear some pretty terrible news for Labour. Shortly after, we will probably hear claims that Labour did not win a sufficiently left-wing campaign. This analysis ignores the fact that the SNP managed to adopt a considerable number of Labour policies in their manifesto when it was published.

It also assumes that people were listening to Scottish Labour. Which it doesn’t seem they were.

1:48: Steerpike – Oh dear, it seems that the Scottish revolt has begun. Labour’s Michael McCann is refusing to do any press. The Labour MP for East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow is reportedly telling journalists that he doesn’t need to talk to them as he is ‘not a politician anymore’.

1:49: James Forsyth – Looks like Tony Blair’s prediction to the Economist at the end of last year that this will be a traditional British left-right election with the traditional result might turn out to be right. The former prime minister said:

The result in 2015, he quips, could well be an election “in which a traditional left-wing party competes with a traditional right-wing party, with the traditional result”. Asked if he means a Tory win, Mr Blair confirms: “Yes, that is what happens.”

1:54: James Forsyth – So, the first big Tory Labour marginal of the night and the Tories have held it with an increased majority. Labour only needed a 2.3% swing to take it but the Tory majority increased sharply with a swing to them from Labour. This suggests that the exit poll was correct.

This result is a body blow to Labour and makes it almost impossible for Labour to carry on insisting that the exit poll is wrong. If this continues, there’ll be a Labour leadership contest by this weekend.

1:57: Sebastian Payne — there are reports going around that there is a recount in Hartlepool, where Ukip is challenge Labour. Although Ukip are clearly having a good night in the north, taking a seat in this Labour heartland would be a huge moment for the party.

1:59: Sebastian Payne — Nuneaton is looking to be a significant moment for the Conservatives’ momentum, proving that it’s going to be a struggle for Labour. Conservative HQ is briefing:

 ‘A great result in Nuneaton – majority increased from 2,069 to 4,882 and a swing from Lab to Con of 3%.This was number 37 on their target list and they held it for 18 years between 1992 and 2010.’

2:00: Steerpike – While things are not looking good for Labour right now, at least Lynton Crosby’s job prospects have increased considerably in the past hour. Tim Shipman, the political editor of the Sunday Times, says that a number of people who had called him to say that the Conservative’s election strategist would not work again in Britain, have now gone off the radar.

2:15: James Forsyth – Optimism is surging through the Tory high command as these results come in. Very senior Tories now think that a majority is on​. If so, this will be the biggest election upset since 1992.

2:16: Sebastian Payne — Although it’s still early days, all the indications suggest it’s going to be a pretty good night for the Tories, some of whom are now reckoning they have a chance of taking out several senior Liberal Democrats: Vince Cable in Twickenham, Ed Davey in Kingston and David Laws in Yeovil. Conservative HQ sources are keen to play down that there is a blue tide sweeping across Britain, pointing out there are hours and many more results to go. 

2:24: Sebastian Payne — We have our first Portillo moment: Douglas Alexander has lost his seat to a 20-year-old SNP student Mhairi Black with a 27 per cent to the SNP. 

2:26: Isabel Hardman - Further to James’s update a few minutes ago, I hear that Number 10 figures believe the Tories could even get a majority tonight – albeit a small one. They are already worrying about the consequences of a small majority, in which the Tory Right would have David Cameron in a permanent headlock as he tries to pass bills.

2:26: Sebastian Payne — We have our first Portillo moment of the election: Douglas Alexander has lost his seat to a 20-year-old SNP student candidate Mhairi Black, with a 27 per cent to the SNP. 

2:28: James Forsyth on Douglas Alexander: this is a quite remarkable result, the SNP candidate is a university student who has said various ill-advised things on YouTube and she has just beaten the shadow Foreign Secretary. 

Douglas Alexander sounded understandably devastated in his concession speech. His loss is a major blow to Labour, he is one of its most senior and experienced figures, and also to the Unionist cause. Alexander was one of the key strategists for the Better Together campaign in the referendum victory just last year, but which seems a very long time ago now. 

2:30: Steerpike: If the BBC’s exit poll is correct, it’s not just Labour and the Liberal Democrats who will take a bashing. Peter Kellner, the President of YouGov, has been grilled by the BBC over how his polling has been so off. Something that has not slipped the attention of Mark Textor, the conservative political strategist:

2:30: Fraser Nelson: Douglas Alexander is one of these politicians who obsesses about elections, opinion polls and psephology. As a general rule, such politicians are usually the least good at actually winning elections. He has just lost his own seat to a 20-year-old student who took Paisley for the SNP with an almighty 35 per cent swing – and just over half of the vote. It was Alexander who hired David Axelrod to help Ed Miliband – it is now Axelrod, not Lynton Crosby, who looks like the joker.

2:37: James Forsyth: Jim Messina, the Obama campaign manager who has been working for the Tories for the past few years, just tweeted out a picture of very satisfied looking Lynton Crosby and him watching the results come in. The Tories think that this very good night for them might be about to get even better. They are beginning to believe that they will get to 323 seats, giving them an overall majority once you discount the Sinn Fein MPs.  

2:45: Sebastian Payne — The Tories have held onto Castle Point, a seat Ukip launched its election campaign back in January. They hoped to do well here and possibly even win it.. Ukip has jumped into second place with 13k votes but have come nowhere near taking it.

2:47: Isabel Hardman: The Labour spin seems to be shifting:

‘Results in Scotland clearly very difficult – if exit poll right, the seats SNP taking off Labour will turn out to be crucial if DC ends up back in No 10. Next government will have huge task uniting country.’

2:49: Steerpike - Labour may be losing but it’s the Liberal Democrats who are struggling the most financially. They have racked up a total bill of £14,000 in fines so far for candidates who have failed to gain five per cent of the vote. In fact, their downfall has meant that the Twitter account dedicated to their downfall is unexpectedly busy: 

2:53: James Forsyth: A big blow to the Liberal Democrats as Jo Swinson loses her East Dumbartonshire seat to the SNP. If she had survived, many of those around Nick Clegg thought that she would become the party’s first female leader. But, for now, she is without a seat in parliament.

2:53: Isabel Hardman: When I followed Jo Swinson around her constituency, I couldn’t quite work out whether the Labour voters she was asking to support her just this once would make the switch and save her from the SNP. They haven’t. It is a shame: she was a hardworking MP and a potential future leader of the Liberal Democrats.

2:53: James Forsyth - Labour are losing Scottish seats in quick succession at the moment. At the same time, they are failing to make progress in England.
Now, without Scotland, the Labour party will have to move to the political centre if it is to entertain hopes of winning 320 odd seats in England and Wales. In the leadership contest that is now bound to take place in the Labour party, the party will face a choice between retreating to its left wing comfort zone to lick its wounds or finding a pro-aspiration, pro-wealth creation leader to take the party forward and win the English seats that it will now require for any kind of majority. 

2:53: James Forsyth: Tories tweeting that Bob Russell is gone, Colchester has fallen to them. Another dire result for the Lib Dems.

2:55: Fraser Nelson: ‘It’s not our night tonight’ said the Liberal Democrats Jo Swinson, swept out of Dunbartonshire East by the SNP. She gave a rather sweet ‘je ne regrette rien’ speech saying she realised she may lose her job when Clegg agree to join the Tories in coalition – which would always go down worse in a Scotland where the Lib Dems had spent eight years in coalition with Labour.

2:57: Isabel Hardman: It’s already pretty clear that Labour is screwed in Scotland. But Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which I profiled during the campaign, has fallen to the SNP. It was a dead safe seat back in the day and had a good MP in it. That means nothing now: the SNP tide was too strong.

2:58: James Forsyth - Labour are losing Scottish seats in quick succession at the moment. At the same time, they are failing to make progress in England.

Now, without Scotland, the Labour party will have to move to the political centre if it is to entertain hopes of winning 320 odd seats in England and Wales. In the leadership contest that is now bound to take place in the Labour party, the party will face a choice between retreating to its left wing comfort zone to lick its wounds or finding a pro-aspiration, pro-wealth creation leader to take the party forward and win the English seats that it will now require for any kind of majority. 

2:58: Fraser Nelson: Douglas Alexander is one of these politicians who obsesses about elections, opinion polls and psephology. As a general rule, such politicians are usually the least good at actually winning elections. He has just lost his own seat to a 20-year-old student who took Paisley for the SNP with an almighty 26.9 per cent swing – and just over half of the vote. It was Alexander who hired David Axelrod to help Ed Miliband – it is now Axelrod, not Lynton Crosby, who looks like the joker.

2:59: James Forsyth: Jim Messina, the Obama campaign manager who has been working for the Tories for the past few years, just tweeted out a picture of very satisfied looking Lynton Crosby and him watching the results come in. The Tories think that this very good night for them might be about to get even better. They are beginning to believe that they will get to 323 seats, giving them an overall majority once you discount the Sinn Fein MPs.  

3:02: The incumbent Labour MP for Bassetlaw John Mann has a cheerful message for Ed Miliband:

3:05: Isabel Hardman – Earlier in the week I texted an MP seeking re-election in Scotland. ‘Don’t be surprised if you see me in London at the weekend.’ He’s just sent another message saying ‘eh, scratch that last text’. He lost, to the SNP.

3:06: Fraser Nelson – How I wish Gordon Brown was standing for election again, and had been there to be booted out by the nationalist force that he did so much to unleash. The SNP winning 52pc of the vote in Kirkcaldy is nothing short of extraordinary – when Brown decided to quit, and I tweeted that he was running from the fact that he may have to actually fight for his seat for the first time, I remember being teased for hysteria. Looking at the Scottish results board, it seems that the SNP could take every seat in the mainland.

3:08: Fraser Nelson – How I wish Gordon Brown was standing for election again, and had been there to be booted out by the nationalist force that he did so much to unleash. The SNP winning 35pc of the vote in Kirkcaldy is nothing short of extraordinary – when Brown decided to quit, and I tweeted that he was running from the fact that he may have to actually fight for his seat for the first time, I remember being teased for hysteria. Looking at the Scottish results board, it seems that the SNP could take every seat in the mainland.

3:09: James Forsyth: This remarkably good night for the Tories continues with them holding North Warwickshire. Many in the party had written it off as they only had a double digit majority and their incumbent MP, Dan Byles, was standing down so the Tories weren’t going to benefit there from the incumbency effect.

3:11: Sebastian Payne — we have our second Portillo moment in Scotland tonight: Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy has lost his seat East Renfrewshire to the SNP.

3:14: Steerpike: Oh dear. Even former Labour spinner Alastair Campbell is finding it difficult to stay positive about Labour’s election results. Campbell, who appeared on the BBC earlier to discuss the polls, says that the party’s results in Scotland are worse than expected.

3:16: Sebastian Payne — we have our second Portillo moment in Scotland tonight: Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy has lost his seat East Renfrewshire to the SNP.

3:17: James Forsyth: If Scottish Labour wants a new leader after Jim Murphy lost his seat, having — frankly — had a very poor campaign, then expect it to turn to his impressive deputy Kezia Dugdale. Though only 33, she is the most impressive performer among the party’s MSPs. 

3:17: James Forsyth on Douglas Alexander: this is a quite remarkable result, the SNP candidate is a university student who has said various ill-advised things on YouTube and she has just beaten the shadow Foreign Secretary. 

Douglas Alexander sounded understandably devastated in his concession speech. His loss is a major blow to Labour, he is one of its most senior and experienced figures, and also to the Unionist cause. Alexander was one of the key strategists for the Better Together campaign in the referendum victory just last year, but which seems a very long time ago now. 

3:27: Isabel Hardman – John Baron didn’t need to worry about Ukip after all. The Tory MP for Basildon and Billericay has just been re-elected with Ukip in third. At one point he looked set to defect. That would have been a mistake.

3:31:  Conservatives take Eastleigh and Kingston from the Liberal Democrats.

3:31: Steerpike: The knives are coming out for Ed Miliband. Jack Straw has just suggested to Sky News that Miliband will need to consider whether he has a future as the leader of the Labour party:

3:34: James Forsyth – Victory in the Eastleigh by-election saved Nick Clegg’s leadership and made many Lib Dems believe that they could hold on to their fortress seats. But tonight, the seat has fallen to the Tories – who came third in that by-election behind Ukip.

3:40: Sebastian Payne — Ukip has failed to take Great Grimsby, a northern seat that many on the campaign hoped they would gain from Labour. It would have shown they can appeal beyond just disaffected Tories. Although they are heading into numerous second places, a seat in the north is now looking unlikely. In Great Grimsby, Ukip came third.

3:42: James Forsyth - Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat Energy Secretary, has lost his seat to the Tories. Davey becomes the first Cabinet Minister of the night to lose his seat but he might not be the last.

The Tories will be particularly pleased to have knocked out Davey whose pro-wind farm stance infuriated them

3:42: Reports — George Galloway has lost Bradford West to Labour

3:42: James Forsyth – Victory in the Eastleigh by-election saved Nick Clegg’s leadership and made many Lib Dems believe that they could hold on to their fortress seats. But tonight, the seat has fallen to the Tories – who came third in that by-election behind Ukip. The Conservative candidate Mims Davies has won the seat:

3:44: James Forsyth - Dan Jarvis is being talked up tonight as a Labour leadership contender. If you want a primer on who he is and what his appeal is, read this Mary Wakefield interview with him.

3:46: James Forsyth - Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat Energy Secretary, has lost his seat to the Tories. Davey becomes the first Cabinet Minister of the night to lose his seat but he might not be the last.

The Tories will be particularly pleased to have knocked out Davey whose pro-wind farm stance infuriated them.

3:48: Fraser Nelson: Make no mistake: we are tonight witnessing the implosion of the Scottish Labour Party, going the same way as the Scottish Conservatives imploded in 1997. Jim Murphy’s defeat tonight was historic, and he was gracious with it, praising not only his successor – a 20-year-old student who has yet to sit her finals – and the party that is sweeping the nation. 

‘It has proven heard to turn around years of difficulty in the Scottish Labour Party in five short months,’ said Murphy. ‘But for me personally, and the party, the fight goes on.’ 

He should have said that Scottish Labour will now have to learn how to fight. For decades, Scottish Labour has been winning without the need to fight – it sat on massive majorities and took its constituents for granted. Election after election Scottish Labour seemed to be absolute solid – until it snapped. Like metal fatigue, there were no visible symptoms until it was in pieces. It’s hard to understate the implications of all this: the Labour Party was born in Scotland, and it’s dying there tonight. We can expect the Scottish trade unions to start getting into bed with the SNP who have tonight replaced Labour as the left-wing force in Scottish politics. 

But while Labour is losing more than half of its vote, the Scottish Tories are holding on to theirs. A great many strange things are happening tonight, and a Scottish Tory revival just might be one of them.

3:51: Fraser Nelson: Make no mistake: we are tonight witnessing the implosion of the Scottish Labour Party, going the same way as the Scottish Conservatives imploded in 1997. Jim Murphy’s defeat tonight was historic, and he was gracious with it, praising not only his successor – Kirsten Oswald – and the party that is sweeping the nation. 

‘It has proven heard to turn around years of difficulty in the Scottish Labour Party in five short months,’ said Murphy. ‘But for me personally, and the party, the fight goes on.’ 

He should have said that Scottish Labour will now have to learn how to fight. For decades, Scottish Labour has been winning without the need to fight – it sat on massive majorities and took its constituents for granted. Election after election Scottish Labour seemed to be absolute solid – until it snapped. Like metal fatigue, there were no visible symptoms until it was in pieces. It’s hard to understate the implications of all this: the Labour Party was born in Scotland, and it’s dying there tonight. We can expect the Scottish trade unions to start getting into bed with the SNP who have tonight replaced Labour as the left-wing force in Scottish politics. 

But while Labour is losing more than half of its vote, the Scottish Tories are holding on to theirs. A great many strange things are happening tonight, and a Scottish Tory revival just might be one of them.

3:55: James Forsyth – On a grim, grim night for Labour, there is one consolation. In Bradford West, the party has defeated George Galloway.

Galloway came close to a rapprochement with Labour after the Scottish referendum, when he played a vital role in the Better Together campaign. But this Bradford campaign has been one of the most bitter in recent British political history with Galloway attacking the Labour candidate in deeply personal terms.

Also given the crisis that is about to engulf the Labour party, they will be very glad that Galloway won’t be in the Commons to exploit it.

3:55: James Forsyth: A bit of a consolation for Labour, they have won Ilford North from the Tories. Considering that the Tories had a 5 thousand majority there, this is a good result for them. But the problem for them is that it doesn’t seem to be being repeated elsewhere.

3:57: Steerpike: Time for a musical interlude courtesy of Irvine Welsh. The Trainspotting author has suggested that Queen’s Another One Bites the Dust is the preferable listening material to accompany Scottish Labour’s defeat.

3:58: Sebastian Payne — The Scottish Secretary Lib Dem Alistair Carmichael has held onto his seat Orkney and Shetland with a slender majority of 817. That’s at least one seat north of the border that won’t be held by the SNP. 

4:01: Sebastian Payne — The Scottish Secretary Lib Dem Alistair Carmichael has held onto his seat Orkney and Shetland with a slender majority of 817. That’s at least one seat north of the border that won’t be held by the SNP. 

As James Forsyth says: The SNP won’t win every seat in Scotland. The Scottish Secretary, the Lib Dem Alistair Carmichael, has held on to his seat in Orkney.

Now, the question is whether any Labour MP can hang on and whether the Tories can sneak a victory in one of the two border seats in which they believe they are competitive ​or will there be 58 SNP MPs and one Lib Dem MP in Scotland?

4:14:
Isabel Hardman - It’s a big yellow taxi for Simon Hughes. He’s lost Bermondsey, a safe Lib Dem seat, to Labour. He wasn’t even as ‘tainted’ by coalition as some of his colleagues, spending most of the Parliament outside the government. Then he was a trouble-making minister inside the justice department. But he has gone.

4:15: Steerpike: The BBC coverage tonight has been clunky at best. In fact things have got so bad that David Dimbleby has just said ‘for God’s sake’ in response to yet more technical difficulties. Conservative strategist Mark Textor says that the corporation’s ‘election night coverage’ has been ‘as useless as it has been for the whole campaign’.

4:17: Isabel Hardman: Nick de Bois has lost his seat in Enfield North to Labour. It’s not a huge surprise to those who knew the race, but it will have interesting internal implications for the Conservative party. De Bois is the Secretary of the 1922 Committee. The Executive of the 22 has its first conference call meeting to discuss the result later today at 4pm

4:17: Greg Callus - With 33 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies having declared, the SNP have taken 31 seats from Labour and 2 from the Liberal Democrats. The change in vote share sees the SNP increasing by 31.1 percentage points, of which 30.5 percentage points have been taken from Labour (down 20.1 percentage points) and the Lib Dems (down 10.4 percentage points). 

Fraser Nelson had a hunch that the Conservative share of the vote in Scotland has held up well, and this is certainly borne out by the numbers so far. The Conservatives’ share of the Scottish popular vote currently stands at 12.9 percent, down only 1.1 percentage points on 2010. 

Digging into individual constituencies, the Tories have lost more than 2.5 percentage points of vote-share in only two seats so far: down 6.9 percentage points in Dunbartonshire East and down 8.4 percentage points in Renfewshire East. This has been largely offset by rises in vote share of 5 percentage points in Moray, and 5.1 percentage points in Dunfermline & West Fife. 

What small vote slippage the Tories have seen is largely accounted for by the rise of 0.7 percentage points for Scottish UKIP, taking them to 1.5 percent overall after 33 seats. The Scottish Greens have (so far) trebled their 2010 vote share to 0.9 percent. 

Edinburgh’s constituencies have yet to declare: the Scottish capital is its most unionist city, and might take the Tories to a net positive increase in their share of the vote north of the border by the end of this General Election.

4:22: James Forsyth – Will there be a Tory MP in Scotland after all? I’m hearing that the Scottish borders seat of BRS is on a knife-edge between the Tories and the SNP; the Lib Dems, despite holding the seat, are nowhere. I’m told that whoever wins will have a majority that is in the hundreds not the thousands

4:26: James Forsyth – The Tories have held Thurrock, a seat that poll after poll suggested Ukip would win. This means that Ukip are likely to only win one seat tonight. Now, this is going to prompt calls for electoral reform given that they are going to come third in the popular vote. But it is also a sign that there is a ceiling on Ukip’s support. Indeed, the only seat it has won so far – Clacton – is down more to Douglas Carswell’s local popularity than Ukip’s standing.

As Isabel says: It is stunning that Jackie Doyle-Price has managed to increase her majority in Thurrock, even by a small number of votes. Many of her colleagues had written her off to Ukip weeks ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iyp8yWYFtuk

4:27: Sebastian Payne — Douglas Carswell has held onto Clacton, becoming the first Ukip MP elected at a general election. In his acceptance speech, Carswell didn’t say much about Ukip’s general performance but instead discussed his hobby horse — electoral reform:

Across the country, about 5 million people voted for Ukip or the Green party — and those people will be lucky to get a handful of people in the House of Commons

Given that Ukip has failed to win Thurrock (see below), Great Grimsby and Castle Point, the question is where will the other seat be? Will Nigel Farage trounce expectations and win South Thanet? Or will Mark Reckless hold on in Rochester & Strood.

4:30: Isabel Hardman: James Wharton has held Stockton South for the Conservatives. It is a very impressive result in a region hostile to the Tory brand. There was a concerted Unite campaign in the seat, with the union campaigning heavily on the ‘threat’ to the NHS from TTIP.

4:31: Fraser Nelson: I suspect we’re a few hours away from Ed Miliband’s resignation. He never held the confidence of his party, and they’ll probably come for him unless he quits but lunchtime. He looks set to win 20 fewer seats that Gordon Brown managed to after a recession and 13 years in power, which is a pretty clear failure.

To bleat on about austerity for five years and actually lose MPs? And as Neil Kinnock demonstrated, the British electorate doesn’t like to be asked twice. The question is not whether he quits, but how he does – and if he manages to oversee a decent contest to succeed him, as Michael Howard did so brilliantly in 2005.

4:36: James Forsyth – The Tories have won Southampton Itchen from Labour. This result is particularly striking as the Labour candidate there, Rowenna Davis, has run what many in the Labour party regarded as a model campaign. This defeat in John Denham’s old seat suggests that southern discomfort is back for Labour.

As Isabel says: another surprise result in a night of surprises. The Tories have won it off the high-profile candidate, whose team was pretty confident of a win. This suggests that Labour’s southern mission is in need of more thought than we previously realised.

4:37: Fraser Nelson on Vince Cable losing his seat in Twickenham – I presided over the selection of Tania Mathias and my first question was: ‘why would you want to get rid of Vince Cable?’ Her answer – ‘because it would give me such pleasure’ – won the crowd over instantly. Getting rid of Vince Cable will be one of tonight’s highlights for David Cameron. 

He campaigned in Twickenham himself, as did Boris, and when Cameron spoke to party rallies he would use Cable as an example of the type of LibDem he would like to, em, liberate into the private sector.

The Tories had feared that they would do nothing apart from lose seats in Greater London where polls had given Labour a 12-point lead. Given how many families in Twickenham face his mansion tax, I’m not surprised that there was a backlash against Cable – one of the leaflets his elves shoved through my door had no mention of the Liberal Democrats. 

Voters, it seemed, did not forget which party he stood for. And in Tania Mathias, my fellow Twickenham constituents have an eloquent and spirited MP, a local GP who will soon turn up to Westminster having claimed one of the biggest scalps of this election. 

A while ago, Cable boasted that he possessed a ‘nuclear button’ which he could use to destroy the coalition. Tonight his constituents have used it to terminate his own career.

4:39: Fraser Nelson on Vince Cable losing his seat in Twickenham – I presided over the selection of Tania Mathias and my first question was: ‘why would you want to get rid of Vince Cable?’ Her answer – ‘because it would give me such pleasure’ – won the crowd over instantly. Getting rid of Vince Cable will be one of tonight’s highlights for David Cameron. 

He campaigned in Twickenham himself, as did Boris, and when Cameron spoke to party rallies he would use Cable as an example of the type of LibDem he would like to, em, liberate into the private sector. 

The Tories had feared that they would do nothing apart from lose seats in Greater London where polls had given Labour a 12-point lead. Given how many families in Twickenham face his mansion tax, I’m not surprised that there was a backlash against Cable – one of the leaflets his elves shoved through my door had no mention of the Liberal Democrats. 

Voters, it seemed, did not forget which party he stood for. And in Tania Mathias, my fellow Twickenham constituents have an eloquent and spirited MP, a local GP who will soon turn up to Westminster having claimed one of the biggest scalps of this election. 

A while ago, Cable boasted that he possessed a ‘nuclear button’ which he could use to destroy the coalition. Tonight his constituents have used it to terminate his own career

And as James says: The Business Secretary becomes the third Liberal Democrat in Cabinet to lose their seat after Ed Davey and Jo Swinson and Danny Alexander is expected to join this unhappy group when his constituency declares.

Cable’s defeat means he will not be a candidate for the Lib Dem leadership, that now looks like being a fight between the darling of the grassroots Tim Farron and Norman Lamb, who will be the choice of the party establishment.

4:42: Isabel Hardman – Well, at least Labour haven’t been wiped out in Scotland. They’ve held one seat – Edinburgh South. This isn’t maybe as impressive as it seems, given the SNP candidate, Neil Hay, was revealed as being behind an abusive twitter account. But it means this is not like 1997 for the Tories in Scotland.

4:43: Steerpike – Although Mr S reported earlier that the knives were out for Miliband following his party’s disappointing results, Labour sources are insisting otherwise. In fact, one member of the party told the BBC that there were absolutely no mutinous words being passed at Labour HQ. Sky’s Sophy Ridge has heard similar:

Meanwhile Steerpike’s CCHQ mole says that party members are ‘pretty confident’ that they could achieve a Conservative majority.

4:44: Steerpike – Although Mr S reported earlier this evening that the knives were out for Miliband following his party’s disappointing results, Labour sources are insisting otherwise. In fact, one member of the party told the BBC that there were absolutely no mutinous words being passed at Labour HQ. Sky’s Sophy Ridge has heard similar:

Meanwhile Steerpike’s CCHQ mole says that party members are ‘pretty confident’ that they could achieve a Conservative majority.

4:45: Fraser Nelson on Vince Cable losing his seat in Twickenham – I presided over the selection of Tania Mathias and my first question was: ‘why would you want to get rid of Vince Cable?’ Her answer – ‘because it would give me such pleasure’ – won the crowd over instantly. Getting rid of Vince Cable will be one of tonight’s highlights for David Cameron. 

He campaigned in Twickenham himself, as did Boris, and when Cameron spoke to party rallies he would use Cable as an example of the type of LibDem he would like to, em, liberate into the private sector. 

The Tories had feared that they would do nothing apart from lose seats in Greater London where polls had given Labour a 12-point lead. Given how many families in Twickenham face his mansion tax, I’m not surprised that there was a backlash against Cable – one of the leaflets his elves shoved through my door had no mention of the Liberal Democrats. 

Voters, it seemed, did not forget which party he stood for. And in Tania Mathias, my fellow Twickenham constituents have an eloquent and spirited MP, a local GP who will soon turn up to Westminster having claimed one of the biggest scalps of this election. 

A while ago, Cable boasted that he possessed a ‘nuclear button’ which he could use to destroy the coalition. Tonight his constituents have used it to terminate his own career

And as James says: The Business Secretary becomes the third Liberal Democrat in Cabinet to lose their seat after Ed Davey and Jo Swinson and Danny Alexander is expected to join this unhappy group when his constituency declares.

Cable’s defeat means he will not be a candidate for the Lib Dem leadership, that now looks like being a fight between the darling of the grassroots Tim Farron and Norman Lamb, who will be the choice of the party establishment.

4:46: 4:45: Isabel Hardman: One of the biggest scalps so far is Vince Cable who has just lost Twickenham. The Tories didn’t even have this as a target seat. They did up the ante in recent weeks, calling voters three times a day. it didn’t seem to put them off their impressive candidate. The Lib Dem business secretary has gone.

4:46: Sebastian Payne — I’m hearing that the mood at Conservative HQ this morning is jubilant. Apparently, every time a good result for the Tories is announced, Lynton Crosby bangs on a wine glass and plays the trumpet upon the declaration. My mole at Matthew Parker Street says he is being treated like a ‘reverent master’. 

Oddly enough, the party chairman Grant Shapps is apparently nowhere to be seen, with a running joke among activists present that he is ‘in hiding’. One senior party staffer commented earlier that tonight is ‘Lynton’s triumph, not Grant’s.’

Interestingly, there are also cardboard cut outs of Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg, dressed in Vote Tory t-shirts. The survival of Tory defector Douglas Carswell, in Clacton, was greeted with a room full of hisses.

4:47: Isabel Hardman: One of the biggest scalps so far is Vince Cable who has just lost Twickenham. The Tories didn’t even have this as a target seat. They did up the ante in recent weeks, calling voters three times a day. it didn’t seem to put them off their impressive candidate. The Lib Dem business secretary has gone.

4:47: Isabel Hardman: One of the biggest scalps so far is Vince Cable who has just lost Twickenham. The Tories didn’t even have this as a target seat. They did up the ante in recent weeks, calling voters three times a day. it didn’t seem to put them off their impressive candidate. The Lib Dem business secretary has gone.

4:52: James Forsyth – A big moment as Boris Johnson comes out for federalism within the UK. Given that he has rarely been off message this campaign, this is very significant. It suggests that the Tory high command is preparing a bold, open and comprehensive offer on the constitution.

4:55: Isabel Hardman – Nick Clegg has held Sheffield Hallam. But that’s only one of his troubles. He now has to face a party that has been shattered tonight. And he has to work out whether to take the Lib Dems back into government if the Tories need them. There will be many calls for him to step down, and many other calls for the party to rebuild from Opposition. At his count, he looked as though winning really was the least of his troubles.

4:57: James Forsyth – Look at the seats the Tories are winning off the Lib Dems and it becomes clear that coalition has enabled them to unwind many of the defeats they’ve suffered to the Lib Dems in the past 23 years.

4:58: Isabel Hardman – Nick Clegg has held Sheffield Hallam. But that’s only one of his troubles. He now has to face a party that has been shattered tonight. And he has to work out whether to take the Lib Dems back into government if the Tories need them. There will be many calls for him to step down, and many other calls for the party to rebuild from Opposition. At his count, he looked as though winning really was the least of his troubles.

4:58: Isabel Hardman – Nick Clegg has held Sheffield Hallam. But that’s only one of his troubles. He now has to face a party that has been shattered tonight. And he has to work out whether to take the Lib Dems back into government if the Tories need them. There will be many calls for him to step down, and many other calls for the party to rebuild from Opposition. At his count, he looked as though winning really was the least of his troubles.

But in Nick Clegg’s acceptance speech, he sounded as though he might be considering stepping down as party leader. He said he would talk about his position in the party when he addresses the Lib Dems later today. It would hardly be a surprise.

5:03: Has Ed Balls lost? The political editor of the Guardian Patrick Wintour is hearing he has:

5:03: Isabel Hardman — Esther McVey has lost her seat in Wirral West. This is not a surprise given the furious campaign against her, but it may lead Tories to question the wisdom of giving the welfare brief to someone defending a seat in such hostile territory. It made her a target for opponents of the ‘bedroom tax’ and helped Labour to draft in volunteers from outside. They had hundreds of activists getting out the vote in the seat yesterday.

5:04: James Forsyth: The Tories will, like Labour and the Liberal Democrats, have at least one Scottish MP as David Mundell has held on in the borders. Indeed, the Tories might have two if they can edge the tight race in the others borders seat of BRS.

5:04: Has Ed Balls lost? The political editor of the Guardian Patrick Wintour is hearing he has:

5:05: Steerpike: While the party is still going strong at CCHQ, a happy bunch of revellers have also congregated at Robin Birley’s 5 Hertford Street. One party goer took her fellow guests by surprise when she revealed that she was not a non-dom:

No prizes for guessing which party this lot are cheering for.

5:05: Isabel Hardman – Nick Clegg has held Sheffield Hallam. But that’s only one of his troubles. He now has to face a party that has been shattered tonight. And he has to work out whether to take the Lib Dems back into government if the Tories need them. There will be many calls for him to step down, and many other calls for the party to rebuild from Opposition. At his count, he looked as though winning really was the least of his troubles.

But in Nick Clegg’s acceptance speech, he sounded as though he might be considering stepping down as party leader. He said he would talk about his position in the party when he addresses the Lib Dems later today. It would hardly be a surprise.

5:13: James Forsyth – The Tories have won Southampton Itchen from Labour. This result is particularly striking as the Labour candidate there, Rowenna Davis, has run what many in the Labour party regarded as a model campaign. This defeat in John Denham’s old seat suggests that southern discomfort is back for Labour.

As Isabel says: another surprise result in a night of surprises. The Tories have won it off the high-profile candidate, whose team was pretty confident of a win. This suggests that Labour’s southern mission is in need of more thought than we previously realised.

5:25:
James Forsyth – The Lib Dem bloodbath continues with news that David Laws has lost Yeovil to the Tories. This is an emotional blow to the Lib Dems as it is the seat of the party’s former leader Paddy Ashdown and was considered to be an impregnable fortress given its 13,000 majority. When I went there to interview George Osborne with Simon Walters, even Osborne thought it was a stretch to think that the Tories could actually win the seat as opposed to just slash the majority.

5:27: James Forsyth – The Lib Dem bloodbath continues with news that David Laws has lost Yeovil to the Tories. This is an emotional blow to the Lib Dems as it is the seat of the party’s former leader Paddy Ashdown and was considered to be an impregnable fortress given its 13,000 majority. When I went there to interview George Osborne with Simon Walters, even Osborne thought it was a stretch to think that the Tories could actually win the seat as opposed to just slash the majority.

5:31: James Forsyth – A dejected looking Ed Miliband didn’t say very much in his concession speech. But when he talked about how the next government must keep the country together, he accepted that he won’t be leading that government.

One other thing worth noting is that Miliband put great emphasis on what a privilege it is to be MP for Doncaster North which implies that he won’t quit parliament if he loses the leadership.

I expect that if Miliband hasn’t resigned by tonight, Labour leadership candidates will start to declare.

5:35: James Forsyth – The Tories have held Thurrock, a seat that poll after poll suggested Ukip would win. This means that Ukip are likely to only win one seat tonight. Now, this is going to prompt calls for electoral reform given that they are going to come third in the popular vote. But it is also a sign that there is a ceiling on Ukip’s support. Indeed, the only seat it has won so far – Clacton – is down more to Douglas Carswell’s local popularity than Ukip’s standing.

As Isabel says: It is stunning that Jackie Doyle-Price has managed to increase her majority in Thurrock, even by a small number of votes. Many of her colleagues had written her off to Ukip weeks ago.

5:36: Steerpike: Labour have held on to Hodge Hill, Birmingham. This comes after members of the party held a controversial last minute rally there over the weekend where the audience was segregated by gender:

Despite the backlash, which saw the party accused of pandering to the Muslim vote, Labour have managed to win with a majority of 23,362.

5:45:
James Forsyth – The BBC is now projecting that the Conservatives will have 325 seats. If accurate, this means that, given that Sinn Fein don’t take their seats, the Conservatives have a majority on their own. This is a jaw-dropping result and one that defies all the polls in the lead up to the election. It also means that all talk of coalition is irrelevant for now.

5:58: Danny Alexander has lost his seat Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey to the SNP, 18,029 votes to 28,838. It fits with the narrative.

6:00: Danny Alexander has lost his seat Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey to the SNP by 18,029 votes to 28,838. It fits with the narrative.

6:04: Steerpike: In a night of logic defying results, the Tories have held Cannock Chase near Birmingham. Amanda Milling has won the seat which will come as yet another disappointment to Labour.

Aidan Burley won the seat in 2010 for the Conservatives with the biggest swing in the country. However, although there were bright hopes for him, these were dashed when photos of him hosting a Nazi themed stag party were published in the papers.

As a result, it was seen as an almost dead-cert loss for the Tories when Burley announced he was would not contest the seat last year.

Sadly for Labour, they selected an unpopular candidate in Janos Toth, who will not be joining the green benches after all.

6:05:
James Forsyth – The BBC is now projecting that the Conservatives will have 325 seats. If accurate, this means that, given that Sinn Fein don’t take their seats, the Conservatives have a majority on their own. This is a jaw-dropping result and one that defies all the polls in the lead up to the election. It also means that all talk of coalition is irrelevant for now. Ed Miliband seems to have resigned himself to defeat:

6:08: Lara Prendergast – George Galloway has lost his seat in Bradford West by a Labour majority of 11,420. ‘Trounced’ is the word, says the BBC, with some glee in their voice. Louise Mensch is, unsurprisingly, chuffed:

6:11: Lara Prendergast - George Galloway has lost his seat in Bradford West by a Labour majority of 11,420. ‘Trounced’ is the word, says the BBC, with some glee in their voice. Louise Mensch is, unsurprisingly,  chuffed. 

6:13: Steerpike: Forget Vince Cable or Danny Alexander, another big name has taken a hit tonight. Has Russell Brand’s influence been severely overestimated? There was much excitement when Ed Miliband took part in an interview with the revolutionary which was viewed by over a million people. In fact, The Independent went so far as to suggest that the interview could help Miliband win the election:

Alas, it wasn’t to be. Not even an endorsement from the questionable comedian could boost Ed’s chances at the polls.

6:35: Listen to our 6am post-election podcast special — with Fraser Nelson, Matthew Parris, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and Sebastian Payne: 

6:37: Steerpike: Congratulations to Flick Drummond who has become the MP for Portsmouth South. Followers of Mr S may already be well acquainted with the Tory candidate. Earlier this year Steerpike reported how her campaign posters had to be adapted due to concerns that her name could be mistook for another f-word from a distance:

Happily, this issue didn’t stop her racing to victory at the polls.

6:39: Lara Prendergast – Two very different stories here: 

6:41: Isabel Hardman – That Labour managed to lose Corby to the Conservatives is an indictment of how badly the party has fared. Sources close to the campaign told me earlier this week they were confident of a surprise win in the seat for the Tories, who lost the seat when Louise Mensch stepped down in 2012.

6:45: Lara Prendergast – Two very different stories here: 

6:45: James Forsyth: I expect David Cameron’s Cabinet reshuffle will be wide ranging. He’s now got the authority in the party to make some big personnel moves. I expect Priti Patel, who is regarded by the Tory leadership as having had a very good campaign, will be rewarded with a big job. There’s also the not small matter of finding a role for Boris Johnson. One other rumour is that Theresa May will become Foreign Secretary.

6:57: Fraser Nelson – Philip Hammond has just been on Radio 4 saying Cameron will consider coalition options and then act ‘in the national interest’. I assume he means Tory majority government – if Cameron thought any LibDem policies were in the national interest he’d have put them in his manifesto. This is an important point: Cameron this morning finds himself with a significant amount of political capital. He may have spent the last few weeks preparing for days of sell-out negotiations with potential coalition partners; now he doesn’t need to. He needs to take stock of this success, and be careful not to squander it. The next few days will be crucial.

6:59: Sebastian Payne – Here’s the view in Westminster. 

7:14: Steerpike: So far Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander and Vince Cable are among the MPs to lose their seats. But could the biggest shock of the election still be to come? The Guardian‘s Patrick Wintour claimed earlier that Ed Balls may lose his seat. Now there are reports that a recount is underway, at Labour’s request:

7:15: James Forsyth – The BBC has just updated its election projection and is now saying that the Tories will win 329 seats, an absolute majority and the first that the Tories have won since 1992. Labour is down on 233, a substantially worse result for them than in 201o.
The SNP are projected to win all but three seats in Scotland. While the Liberal Democrats have been almost wiped out, down to a mere 8 MPs.

7:16: James Forsyth – The BBC has just updated its election projection and is now saying that the Tories will win 329 seats, an absolute majority and the first that the Tories have won since 1992. Labour is down on 233, a substantially worse result for them than in 2010. The SNP are projected to win all but three seats in Scotland. While the Liberal Democrats have been almost wiped out, down to a mere 8 MPs.

7:23: Sebastian Payne – Ukip have not had a great night. Clacton looks set to be the party’s only seat in the Commons. But the party is remaining buoyant, with sources pointing out that over two million people have voted Ukip in this election. Those inside Ukip reckon if it can make 150 net gains in the council elections, they can still claim they have made progress and the People’s Army marches on. I understand that the party is also pleased that it has already come second in 69 seats, still on course for nearing 100. This lays the ground work for future growth in the north – aka the ’2020 strategy’.

The key question for the party now is whether it has reached peak Farage? As with Nicola Sturgeon’s successful takeover of the SNP, Ukip may soon decide it’s time for a very different approach. We’ll find out at 11am if Farage can hang on as leader but now, I’m sensing that the era of Suzanne Evans or Paul Nuttall is rapidly approaching.

7:27: James Forsyth: There’s a rumour circulating that all of Ed Miliband’s senior team have resigned. But a senior Miliband aide tells me that it is ‘news to them’.

7:27: Steerpike: Ed Miliband recently claimed that Rupert Murdoch is ‘much less powerful than he used to be’. However, Mr S suspects that the media mogul, who has made clear his disdain for the Labour leader, may now have the last laugh.
With Miliband’s party lagging, his arch enemy couldn’t resist commenting on the dire results. Murdoch has called the UK polls ‘nonsense’ and appears to have taken a dig at the BBC for their pre-election coverage:

7:29: Isabel Hardman – We could be very close to seeing the start of a Labour leadership campaign. Who might have a pop? Here are my predictions of the runners and riders, including Chuka Umunna, Andy Burnham and Dan Jarvis. More details here. 

7:43: James Forsyth: A very comfortable hold for Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion with an increased share of the vote. I wonder how the Greens would have done nationally in this election with her leading them rather than Natalie Bennett.

7:44: James Forsyth – When a Tory told me yesterday that George Osborne would be doing the morning media round, it was with the expectation that he’d be required to rebut Labour’s argument that David Cameron should resign because it wasn’t clear how he would get 323 seats for a Commons majority. But now, Osborne is being questioned about the Tories governing as a majority. It is a sign of how this result has surprised everyone, including the Tories themselves.

But it is worth noting that Osborne has acknowledged that the result in Scotland has accentuated the challenge there. I think we will probably hear more from this on the Tories very soon.

7:47: Sebastian Payne — Speaking to staffers at Conservative HQ this morning, I understand that David Cameron described a ‘sacred trust’ between the elected and the electorate.

7:53: Fraser Nelson - I’m now sitting next to Huw Edwards at the BBC’s election hub in Elstree where he has just interviewed a beaming George Osborne. I suspect today will be the best of his political life. He was joking about Cameron returning to No10 (‘its always good to see the man next door coming home after a good day’s work). 

To his credit, Osborne has never been worried by the opinion polls and always thought the Tories would do well. He had a major role in this election campaign, whose strategy has been amply vindicated today. He puts it down to the Tory manifesto being ‘warmly received’ – a document that was not very firmly scrutinised at the time because it was regarded as a negotiating document for coalition talks. 

Now, Cameron will be able to implement pretty much anything he wants. The exception to this is the £12 billion welfare cuts which were needlessly pledged: this was a figure thrown by Osborne in for short-term tactical advantage. The Chancellor need not be held to it now.

7:58: Steerpike – Cameron may now be celebrating but all is not well in the Freeman household this morning. After Martin Freeman, a former Scargill Socialist, appeared in a Labour party political broadcast, his partner Amanda Abbington voiced her support to the cause, eloquently tweeting ‘f— the Tories’. 

However, Abbingdon is in a decidedly less jubilant mood this morning tweeting ‘oh sh–’.

8:00: Steerpike – Cameron may now be celebrating but all is not well in the Freeman household this morning. After Martin Freeman, a former Scargill Socialist, appeared in a Labour party political broadcast, his partner Amanda Abbington voiced her support to the cause, eloquently tweeting ‘f— the Tories’. 

However, Abbingdon is in a decidedly less jubilant mood this morning tweeting ‘oh sh–’.

8:02: Steerpike – Cameron may now be celebrating but all is not well in the Freeman household this morning. After Martin Freeman, a former Scargill Socialist, appeared in a Labour party political broadcast, his partner Amanda Abbington voiced her support to the cause, eloquently tweeting ‘f— the Tories’. 

However, Abbingdon is in a decidedly less jubilant mood this morning tweeting ‘oh sh–’.

8:03: Sebastian Payne — we have an exclusive for you: here is David Cameron’s thank you speech to staff at Conservative HQ this morning. As you can see, everyone is in a very jolly mood:

I understand from my CCHQ mole that Andrew Feldman raised a big cheer for his thanks to Jim Messina and Lynton Crosby — the two imported campaign gurus who have delivered the Tories’ victory. Cameron said:

‘..to be with you guys and say thank you, you are an amazing team. I’m not an old man but I remember casting a vote in ’87 and that was a great victory. I remember working, just as you have been working, in ’92 and that was a n amazing victory and I remember 2010, achieving that dream of getting Labour out and getting the Tories back in and that was amazing. But I think this the sweetest victory of them all.’

‘There’s so many things to be proud of in this result: the fact that we held on in Scotland, the fact we extended our representation in Wales, the fact that candidates I’ve seen work so hard, week in week out, some of them year in year out, have triumphed in so many seats. The fact that every election we think we’re going to displace the Lib Dems in the West Country and we’ve finally done it.’

‘There’s so many things to celebrate: the fact the pundits got it wrong, the pollsters got it wrong, the commentators got it wrong — not to mention some of the people on the blogs, it sometimes annoys me they got it wrong. No because the real reason to celebrate tonight, the real reason to be proud, the real reason to be excited is we are going to get the opportunity to serve our country again. That’s what it’s all about, that brilliant, positive upbeat manifesto. All the things we’ve done we’ve done in the last five years to get to where we are, laying that foundation and now we are able to offer real hope to people in our country. We are on the brink of something so exciting, as I said at the start of this campaign. I never quite believed we’d get to the end of this campaign in the place we are now. But that’s what it’s about: so tonight — not tonight, this morning — this morning, celebrate. You are an amazing team, this has been the most professional campaign…’

8:03: Steerpike – Cameron may now be celebrating but all is not well in the Freeman household this morning. After Martin Freeman, a former Scargill Socialist, appeared in a Labour party political broadcast, his partner Amanda Abbington voiced her support to the cause, eloquently tweeting ‘f— the Tories’. 

However, Abbingdon is in a decidedly less jubilant mood this morning tweeting ‘oh sh–’.

8:05: Steerpike – Cameron may now be celebrating but all is not well in the Freeman household this morning. After Martin Freeman, a former Scargill Socialist, appeared in a Labour party political broadcast, his partner Amanda Abbington voiced her support to the cause, eloquently tweeting ‘f— the Tories’. 

However, Abbingdon is in a decidedly less jubilant mood this morning, tweeting ‘oh sh–’.

8:09: Fraser Nelson – Boris Johnson is today making some worrying noises about federalism – it would be a shame if he, and others, put the union into further danger by misinterpreting what has just happened in Scotland. 

The SNP surge is no more a call for independence than the referendum last September. Support for separation has barely changed since then: what we witnesses last night was the collapse of the Scottish Labour Party and its replacement by Nicola Sturgeon. The Tory voting share held relatively firm, down by just 2pc (against Labour’s 20pc). She fought on a modest platform, emphasising time and time again about how she wanted to ‘hold out the hand of friendship’ to fellow Britons. 

The campaign was not ‘vote SNP and we’ll break away from the UK’ – in the post-devolution era its ‘vote SNP for a louder voice for Scotland as part of the Westminster system’. There may well be a second referendum. But the time to start fighting for the union is now.

8:16: James Forsyth – It is almost impossible to overstate how bad this result is for the Liberal Democrats. They have gone from 56 MPs to eight. No one in the party HQ expected this. Even the pessimists expected the party to win about 25 seats.

I must admit to feeling sorry for the Liberal Democrats; they have reaped the whirlwind of their decision to go into coalition which was fundamentally an honest one that benefitted this country by giving it a stable government. One consequence of this is that when Britain next has a hung parliament, no minor party will dare enter into a full, formal coalition.

Nick Clegg will, I’m sure, resign at some point today. Tim Farron will be the red hot favourite to win and his upbeat demeanour and connection with the party’s activist base will appeal to this shell-shocked party. But don’t discount Norman Lamb. He will be the choice of the party establishment and his work on mental health has been very popular in Lib Dem circles.

8:20: Isabel Hardman – This was a genuine surprise. Ed Balls, a big beast of politics, has lost his seat. Of all the predictions of SNP gains, and so on, few thought the Shadow Chancellor would face a threat in his constituency. Perhaps he didn’t take signs that something was going on seriously enough.

I must say I’ll rather miss Balls’s rambunctious style. He always looked as though he genuinely enjoyed the knockabout in the Commons and his parties were far more entertaining than those held by Ed Miliband as Balls is a splendid raconteur.

8:26: James Forsyth – When David Cameron and George Osborne used to campaign in Morley & Outwood, I thought it was as pleasure before business. Clearly, it wasn’t.

But tonight Labour has lost its shadow Chancellor and shadow Foreign Secretary. Has an official opposition ever lost so many senior figures?

8:31: James Forsyth – When David Cameron and George Osborne used to campaign in Morley & Outwood, I thought it was as pleasure before business. Clearly, it wasn’t.

But tonight Labour has lost its shadow Chancellor and shadow Foreign Secretary. Has an official opposition ever lost so many senior figures?

8:40: Sebastian Payne — we have an exclusive for you: here is David Cameron’s thank you speech to staff at Conservative HQ this morning. As you can see, everyone is in a very jolly mood:

I understand from my CCHQ mole that Andrew Feldman raised a big cheer for his thanks to Jim Messina and Lynton Crosby — the two imported campaign gurus who have delivered the Tories’ victory. Cameron said:

‘..to be with you guys and say thank you, you are an amazing team. I’m not an old man but I remember casting a vote in ’87 and that was a great victory. I remember working, just as you have been working, in ’92 and that was an amazing victory and I remember 2010, achieving that dream of getting Labour out and getting the Tories back in and that was amazing. But I think this is the sweetest victory of them all.’

‘There’s so many things to be proud of in this result: the fact that we held on in Scotland, the fact we extended our representation in Wales, the fact that candidates I’ve seen that work so hard, week in week out, some of them year in year out, have triumphed in so many seats. The fact that every election we always think we’re going to displace those Lib Dems in the West Country and we’ve finally done it.’

‘There’s so many things to celebrate: the fact the pundits got it wrong, the pollsters got it wrong, the commentators got it wrong — not to mention some of the people on the blogs, it sometimes annoys me they got it wrong. No, because the real reason to celebrate tonight, the real reason to be proud, the real reason to be excited is we are going to get the opportunity to serve our country again.

‘That’s what it’s all about — that brilliant, positive upbeat manifesto. All the things we’ve done we’ve done in the last five years to get to where we are, laying that foundation and now being able to offer real hope to people in our country. We are on the brink of something so exciting, as I said at the start of this campaign. I never quite believed we’d get to the end of this campaign in the place we are now. But that’s what it’s about: so tonight — not tonight, this morning — this morning, celebrate. You are an amazing team, this has been the most professional campaign…’

8:58: Brendan O’Neill – Forget Vince Cable. Forget, if you can, Ed Balls (and I know that’s hard, because what a joyous result that was). Expel from your mind the image of Nick Clegg crying into his cornflakes this morning while texting his old pals in the Euro-oligarchy to see if they will give him a new plush job that involves no contact with pesky plebs. For last night there was an even bigger loser than those guys. Russell Brand. Or ‘Rusty Rockets’, as his politics-packed Twitterfeed has it. Rusty being the operative word, for now we now that the much-hyped ability of slebs like Brand to sway public sentiment is in a serious state of decomposition.

You can read Brendan’s dissection of Russell Brand here.

9:16: Steerpike – There have been some surprising losses over the past 12 hours but one of the biggest losers could be the man who placed a hefty last minute £200,000 bet that there would be a hung parliament:

Surely it’s time to write a strongly-worded letter to YouGov?

9:30: It is being reported that Ed Miliband will announce his resignation at midday. 

9:53:

Lara Prendergast – These are the final sixteen seats left:

Hexham, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Wansbeck, Blyth Valley, Harborough, Kenilworth & Southam, Warwick & Leamington, The Cotswolds, Wells, Devon Central, Torridge & West Devon, St Ives, Luton North, Luton South, Thanet North, Thanet South

10:09: Ross Clark - Boris said that Britain voted not to go back to the 1970s. But that’s exactly where we are going: that was the last time we had a long period of a government with virtually no majority, the whips scrabbling around night after night to get legislation through.

10:14: Steerpike: The award for ‘understatement of the night’ goes to Simon Danczuk. Describing his party’s disastrous election results, the Labour MP said:

‘I’m not suggesting that everything is tickety-boo.’

10:20: Steerpike: Oh dear. Not only have the Liberal Democrats only won eight seats so far compared to the 56 taken in 2010, many candidates face losing their deposit.

If a candidate fails to win five per cent of the vote in their desired constituency then they are subject to a £500 fine. Unfortunately the Liberal Democrats have had many candidates do exactly that. It’s thought that the current total of fines is an enormous £157,000. This would mean that out of the 631 Liberal Democrat candidates that ran 314 failed to get five per cent of the vote.

Mr S has the full details here

10:36: Sebastian Payne — Nigel Farage has failed to win South Thanet. Craig Mackinlay has held the seat for the Tories. The turnout was 70% and the Tories won the seat with a 2,822 majority. The results are: 38% Conservative, 32% Ukip, 24% Labour. 

10:41: James Forsyth: This election just keeps getting better for David Cameron with Nigel Farage’s defeat in South Thanet. Farage will now resign as Ukip leader and whoever succeeds him will have a very difficult job keeping the party together. How do you reconcile Douglas Carswell’s, self-described, Gladstonian Liberalism with the anti-immigration, economic populism of Ukip in the north?

10:59: Sebastian Payne — I’ve heard from sources at CCHQ that party chairman Grant Shapps spoke after the Prime Minister this morning and told the staffers he’d placed a £50 bet on an outright Tory majority on 21 March. This has paid out £350 and I understand that the money will be put behind the bar to begin a thank you party. At least someone saw this coming…

11:01: Steerpike: Nigel Farage has failed to win in South Thanet. However, he can take some comfort that he came second in the hotly contested seat.

Alas the same cannot be said for Al Murray and his FUKP party. The Pub Landlord only managed to muster 318 votes. That means that Murray will need to pay back his £500 election deposit.

Full details with Mr S

11:07: James Forsyth: With Labour, Ukip and the Lib Dems all about to have leadership contests, David Cameron has a six month window in which he can define the political agenda for this parliament. In 2010, the Tories managed to define the economic debate before Ed Miliband had even been elected Labour leader. They’ll be keen to do the same again this time round.

The other great news for the Tories is that the other three English parties have all been plunged into existential crisis by this election. Labour have to decide what it is for, whether it will move to the centre to try and make itself more appealing in England. Ukip have to work out how to reconcile libertarianism with economic populism. While the Liberal Democrats have to find a purpose for their now, much diminished party. Do they still aspire to be a party of the centre or will they move back to being a left-wing protest party? 

11:27: Steerpike: News in from the Guardian, where the office sweepstake is being donated to a foodbank, on the understanding that nobody called it correctly. This email reaches Mr S’s inbox:

11:28: Lara Prendergast: After failing to win the seat in South Thanet, Nigel Farage has stepped down as the leader of Ukip. However, he has left the door open saying that he may decide to run again for the role. 

11:31: James Forsyth – David Cameron has pulled off what nearly everybody thought was impossible, a Conservative majority. The Tories have won outright for the first time in 23 years and as in 1992, nobody saw this result coming. The polls and the political punditry were both badly out of whack with reality, I thought I was probably a little bit on the high side in having said that the Tories would win 290 seats on our podcast the other day. I understand that even the party’s own polling only had the Tories on course for 300-odd seats.

This victory gives Cameron a huge opportunity. First, he can define the political agenda as the Conservatives’ three rival parties in England all go through traumatic leadership contests. Second, he can pass boundary reforms that equalise constituency sizes, a shift that is estimated to be worth 21 seats for the party. Third, he can—as he said in the speech at his own count—offer his own version of one nation Conservatism.

11:35: James Forsyth – Defeat has not robbed Nigel Farage of his ability to surprise. He has just announced that, as he had said he would before the election, he was resigning because he had lost in Thanet South. But then he said that after a summer off, he would consider standing again for the leadership in September. So, he is not really resigning after all—more taking a long summer holiday.

Now, this is either a brilliant ruse or a weasel-like move that makes Farage look just like any other politician.

11:36: Lara Prendergast: First Farage, now Nick Clegg has resigned as the leader of the Liberal Democrats. He says that it is ‘simply heartbreaking’ to see his colleagues lose their seats due to forces ‘beyond their control’ and that ‘liberalism is not faring well against the politics of fear’. Sebastian Payne is there, and they aren’t letting press in:

11:41: Lara Prendergast: First Farage, now Nick Clegg has resigned as the leader of the Liberal Democrats. He says that it is ‘simply heartbreaking’ to see his colleagues lose their seats due to forces ‘beyond their control’ and that ‘liberalism is not faring well against the politics of fear’. Sebastian Payne is there, and they aren’t letting press in:

11:45: Lara Prendergast: First Farage, now Nick Clegg has resigned as the leader of the Liberal Democrats. He says that it is ‘simply heartbreaking’ to see his colleagues lose their seats due to forces ‘beyond their control’ and that ‘liberalism is not faring well against the politics of fear’. Sebastian Payne is there, and they aren’t letting press in:

11:47: Lara Prendergast: After failing to win the seat in South Thanet, Nigel Farage has stepped down as the leader of Ukip. However, he has left the door open saying that he may decide to run again for the role. 

As James Forsyth says, defeat has not robbed Nigel Farage of his ability to surprise. He has just announced that, as he had said he would before the election, he was resigning because he had lost in Thanet South. But then he said that after a summer off, he would consider standing again for the leadership in September. So, he is not really resigning after all—more taking a long summer holiday.

Now, this is either a brilliant ruse or a weasel-like move that makes Farage look just like any other politician.

11:49: Isabel Hardman: Nick Clegg has just given a very good last speech as Liberal Democrat leader about the importance of Liberalism. But I wonder whether he could have done more to articulate the power and value of Liberalism in the run-up to the campaign. Did he give voters a good enough reason to march into a polling booth and support his party? I wonder whether the Lib Dem pitch of splitting the difference between the two parties left some voters thinking that they should still back one of the main parties to tilt the balance in favour of the one they preferred, and hope that some other voter might do the clever tactical thing and support the Lib Dems.

11:53: Sebastian Payne is at Miliband’s statement. One final podium moment:

11:55: Sebastian Payne is at Ed Miliband’s statement. One final podium moment and there’s some strange music playing:

11:58: Sebastian Payne: I’m waiting for Ed Miliband to deliver his statement, expected around midday. The mood here is very somber, with the assembled Labour HQ staffers looking miserable. But Miliband has at least brought along one last podium:

There’s some really odd ambient muzak playing in room at Old Great George Street in Westminster – reminiscent of raindrops.

Meanwhile Polly Toynbee has been on the BBC saying ‘just about everything’ went wrong:
. 

11:59: Isabel Hardman – Now Clegg has gone, the Lib Dem leadership contest begins. If the party decides to elect one of its 8 remaining MPs, rather than a peer, as leader, then it will either go for Tim Farron or Norman Lamb. Lamb has been quietly building up support in the party with his work on mental health, while Farron is a well-known tubthumper. Lamb might make them look like a more serious force in politics, but I suspect the party will want to go for Farron as a more comfortable choice for some serious licking of wounds back in Opposition.

12:17: James Forsyth – Ed Miliband resigning with effect from this afternoon, Harriet Harman will again be acting leader of the Labour party​. This means that there’ll be no final Miliband appearance at PMQs. 

Polly Toynbee has been on the BBC just before saying ‘just about everything’ went wrong:
. 

12:19: James Forsyth – Ed Miliband resigning with effect from this afternoon, Harriet Harman will again be acting leader of the Labour party​. This means that there’ll be no final Miliband appearance at PMQs. 

12:21: James Forsyth – Ed Miliband resigning with effect from this afternoon, Harriet Harman will again be acting leader of the Labour party​. This means that there’ll be no final Miliband appearance at PMQs. 

Miliband resigning from this afternoon, means that we’ll have Labour leadership contenders making clear their interest this weekend

12:26: Isabel Hardman – That was a very gracious goodbye speech from Ed Miliband. He seemed particularly keen that his party doesn’t descend into bickering over Labour’s future, which it will do. The debate will be whether it lost because it wasn’t left enough, or whether it lost because it wasn’t fighting in the centre.

12:33: Sebastian Payne – Here is Ed Miliband announcing his resignation:

12:35: Sebastian Payne – Miliband exits stage left:

13:05: Is Harriet Harman about to tender her resignation as Deputy Labour Leader? There are reports that she will stand down after Labour has chosen replacement for Ed Miliand:

13:12: Harriet Harman is to step down as Labour leader after replacements for her and Ed Miliband have been chosen. In a statement she said that ‘with a new leadership team in place, after what has undoubtedly been a serious defeat, the Labour Party will be best placed to be the strong opposition this country needs’.

13:15: Steerpike: As the election draws to a close, staff at the BBC are beginning to feel the strain. Huw Edwards has mistook the SNP MP Patrick Grady for Nicola Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell. Well, they are both bald…

Mr S has the details

13:23: David Cameron has just delivered his victory speech on Downing Street. The Prime Minister said the Conservative majority government will govern for ‘one nation, one United Kingdom’. Listen here:

14:07: Thank you very much for joining us – that’s it for our live blog. We’re still waiting for one more seat to be declared. Come back to the site later for our podcast special featuring Isabel Hardman, James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson. 

Tags: Conservatives, David Cameron, Ed Miliband, election 2015, Labour, Liberal Democats, UKIP