A Historical Look at Electoral Maps

When I was a kid, "The Solid South" used to mean that the southern states from Texas through The Carolinas could be counted on to support the Democratic presidential candidate.  This had been true since 1880, and was a manifestation of southern resentment against Republican northern profiteers, known as carpet baggers, who had gotten fat on the post war reconstruction.

This all changed in the 1960's, after LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 into law.   He said at the time that the Democrats had lost the south for a generation. What a failure of imagination!  Here we are, more than 50 years later, and the South is still lost, and probably will remain so for a few more decades.

Heres' s a link to historical electoral maps.

In 1964, the effect was immediate.  For the first time in history, the Republicans took LA, MS, AL, GA and SC, while suffering an epic national loss of of 486 to 52 electoral votes.  As an aside, it's also notable that in the first half of this century, the Democratic party was a welcome home to southern racists.  After 1964, they ran to the Rethugs, who welcomed them with open arms, as evidenced by the Nixon-Reagan southern strategy.

The south revealed its other characteristic factor in the '64 election - voting for its native son.  The Dems carried Texas in '64, and again in '68, when LBJ decided not to run again, and Humphrey stepped up to get stomped by the vile Richard Nixon.  Despite the even worse George Wallace draining off 5 southern states and their 46 electoral votes, Nixon beat Humphrey by 110.

The only anomaly occurred in 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter of Georgia swept the south and beat Michigan's Jerry Ford by 57 EV.  The south gave the presidency to its native son. Except for the first two elections of the 2000's that were stolen by GWB, that was the closest EV margin since 1884.

In '92 and '96 Clinton won his home state of AR, along with a couple other southern states each time, beating his rivals by sizable EV margins.

Florida has gone blue in the last two elections, but the rest of the south remained solidly behind McCain and Romney.

What will happen now?  The black guy has been replaced by a woman who has been vilified by the right wing for 25 years.  More recently, the Rethug controlled congress has wasted huge quantities of both time and money chasing bogus scandals to further discredit her.

HRC is very unlikely to win any southern state beside FLA, which has a large contingent of displaced northerners.

It's up to the rest of the country to keep the dumb con man, who has deep and serious emotional problems, and might actually be insane, out of the White House.

What a god damned night mare.

The Rest of the Tigers' Season

After today's game against the Sox ace Quintana, who has the 2nd best ERA in the AL, the Tigers have 7 games left against first place CLE and 3 more with defending champion KC.

Next up are 3 games against the Orioles, who are 1 game ahead of them in the wild card race.

So far, they're
1-11 vs CLE
6-10 vs KC
1-3 vs BAL

Their other remaining games are 7 against the Twins and 3 against the Braves. They're 10-2 against the Twins, and have not played the 54-85 Braves.

So, they have 14 tough games, and10 where they should be heavily favored.

With 13 remaining games head to head against teams they are contending with, they have an opportunity to control their own destiny, but I have a hard time seeing this as a favorable schedule.

The Endgame of ASoIaF

Sophie Turner imagines an elongated, beautiful death for her TV character.   It's all tongue in cheek [I sincerely hope.]  At any rate, it is a hope and a vision that I do not share.

Arya, Bran and Sansa survive, and they all reunite to ultimately rule in the north. Sansa takes down Little Finger. Stannis, in despair after sacrificing Shireen for no good purpose, becomes the 1000th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Brienne becomes castellan at Winterfell.

Davos finally gets to go home. The Boltons die horrible deaths that could never, ever be horrible enough. Big Walder takes over whatever is left of house Frey.

After inadvertently setting off the wildfire that destroys King's Landing, Dani fries Euron on the Isle of Faces. Previously he blew the horn of Joramon, bringing down the wall and setting off the zombie apocalypse. Then Jon gets the dragon - probably Rhaegal - that Victarion unwittingly summoned to Euron with the dragonbinder horn.

Tyrion rides Viserion to Casterly Rock for a showdown with his sibs. Jamie and Cersei go out in a murder-suicide. Then, Jon, Tyrion and Dani ride their dragons into the Land of Always Winter to defeat the Others at their home base. They win, but none of them ever return. Well, maybe Tyrion. Somebody has to relate what happened there.

Cold Hands is not Benjen.

It is known.

H/T to poorquentyn

ASoIaF as Horror

Best horror chapters in ASoIaF, per poorquentyn, who knows these things ---

Best horror chapters in ASOIAF? Here’s my top five:

1. “The Forsaken,” TWOW

2. “The Dragontamer,” ADWD

3. Sam I ASOS

4. Reek I ADWD

5. Catelyn VII ASOS

UPDATE 8/20:  Also, his top ten chapters in the series.

my top ten chapters in the series: 

AGOT: Sansa II

ACOK: Catelyn III

ASOS: Davos IV

AFFC: The Princess in the Tower, The Drowned Man

ADWD: Daenerys X, Bran III, The Dragontamer

TWOW: The Forsaken, Theon I

BIG EVIL, little evil

Quote of the day, relating to alleged kin-slayer Big Walder Frey:

Choosing the lesser evil isn’t a sad half-measure, not in a world where the greater evils are the likes of Ramsay, Gregor, Craster, Rorge…or the Others, above them all.

            -- poorquentyn

Funny, he didn't mention Euron Greyjoy.

Or Donald Trump.

.

GoT S6 E09

I finished watching GoT S6 E09 this morning.

Spoiler alert in case anyone needs it at this late date.

A few thoughts.

The Next Clinton Presidency

Hillary will be the Democratic nominee, because that was pre-ordained, and the Party will make sure it happens, as it has throughout this primary season.  Given that, I’m glad Bernie ran and is staying in the fray until the convention.  Everyone saying he should drop out; is hurting the party; or is hurting Hillary can go to hell.

I also expect she will win the presidency, though I am far from certain.   Trump is putting out a populist message addressing jobs, infrastructure and trade agreements that plays directly into the the fears and expectations of desperate white working class people.  Of course it’s all bull shit, right from The Art of the Deal.   But if enough people fall for it, he has a chance to win.

I see the general election playing out one of two ways: either Trump wins a squeaky close election - by 1-2 % of the popular vote and a single swing state in the electoral college; or Hillary wins by a historic landslide - >15 % of the popular vote and 100 to 150 electoral votes.

People talk about her progressive credentials, but I see a corporatist neoliberal hawk.  These are things I will judge her presidency on —

Fracking

Support for alternative energy development

Wall street Regulation

TPP and other trade agreements

Minimum Wage

The Future of Social Security and Medicare

Universal Health Care

The Student Loan crisis and college costs in general

Citizens United and election finance in general

Relations with Native Americans and other minorities

Pipeline Issues [like Keystone XL] as they arise

Other environmental concerns vis-a-vis corporate concerns

Climate change vis-a-vis the political power of big oil

Tax policy

Future of the National Parks 

Eagerness to go to war, foreign policy aggressiveness in general 

Specifically, military involvement in the Middle East and regarding other Muslin nations.

U.S. attitude toward and treatment of Palestinians

Thoughts on Game of Thrones S6E04 -- Book of the Stranger

I've fallen way behind Game of Thrones this year.  Just watched S6E04 this morning, and S6E07 airs tonight.   Spoilers ahead, in case anyone needs that warning at this late date.

In the "Inside the Episode" segment D and D talk about the theme of rebirth, a la both Jon Snow and Dany.  True enough, but what struck me is the recurring vignettes revealing the strength of the female characters juxtaposed against the weaknesses of their male counterparts.

First, the sisters vis-vis their brothers, with all these guys showing weakness in some way.

Sansa has become a seriously bad-ass character, and I suspect the best is yet to come for her.  She is now determined to take Winterfell back from Ramsay, and uses her strength to bolster Jon Snow's resolve.  [Yes we all "know" that they are cousins, not half siblings, but they don't know that - yet.]   Jon, highly confused at this point, is still coming to grips with his resurrection, and Sansa is giving him purpose and direction.  D and D reveal this is the first time they have been on screen together in 6 season, which only heightens the poignancy.

Margaery meets her brother Loras in the cells of The Faith Militant.  Loras, who we have not heard from in the books for a long time, is quite likely dead.  But on the show, he's alive, and, by means unspecified, about as badly broken as Theon.  Margaery is attempting to give Loras some of her strength and courage to carry on.  This  was a brief moment, and we don't know how it will play out.  But Margaery's strength and resolve are undeniable. 

And poor emasculated Theon, who will never get over his mutilation, but is slowly regaining his humanity, is still not back to himself enough to look his sister in the eye.  But he's gaining, and resolves to help her win the Iron Islands. Ironically, his weakness enhances her strength.

Now, the mother and child reunion, as Cersei once again bends King Tommen to her will.  Tommen is basically a good kid, but confused, wrapped around mommy's finger, and a horribly weak king. 

The contrasts -

First, the brief encounter between Davos and Melisandre.  She seems to have regained her faith, this time putting it in Jon Snow, but cannot face even the slightest questioning by Davos.

Then Osha, attempting to use all of her wiles against the Bastard Ramsay.  He was on to her, though.  They both went for the knife, the knife, the knife; they both went for the knife.  Sadly Ramsay won this round.  Alas, poor Osha.  You died a hero! 

And the best for last - both here and in the episode, as Daenerys Stormborn, Khaleesi, Mother of Dragons, Breaker of Chains, The Unburnt confronts the collected Khals of the Dothraki, who think they are passing judgment on her.  With absolutely nothing to lose, she sends their temple up in a blazing conflagration, thus reducing them to cinders, and again emerges miraculously unscathed from the inferno, reprising, in a much larger and more dramatic way, the conclusion of S1E10.

For some deeper analysis check out the always excellent Alt Shift X.

Just another Fry day in Vaes Dothrak.

Afterthought:  I disagree with Alt about Dany's character arc.  She is not going back to where she started.  She started as a frightened young girl, and has since been thrust into situations not of her making, and tried to do what she thought was right - kind of like Jon Snow, come to think of it.  In the process she has been running away from what she truly is - a Fire and Blood Targeryan.  Alt zeros in on this possibility - that she will return to Westros as an invading conqueror, leading a wild Dothraki hoard from atop a fire-breathing dragon.  Well - that is what Khal Drogo intended 5 seasons back.  But now it would be Daenerys in the lead.   She has grown and changed a lot, and - as is hinted at the end of A Dance With Dragons - getting ready to unleash her dragons and savages on an unprepared world.

So this is not a circle back character arc, despite all the to go forward you must go back stuff she got from the mysterious Quaithe back in season 2.

I agree with his final statement, though, that Dany and Jon have vital roles to play in whatever the grand finale of this epic turns out to be.

2nd Afterthought:  In Vaes Dothrak I was really expecting a Drogon ex Machina moment, but instead  it was a Daenerys ex Machina moment, which I think is much more powerful.

Tigers First 10 Games

I came into this season with a lot of optimism.  Verlander, Victor, Miggy, and Sanchez are all healthy for the first time in three years.  Green had his hand problem repaired.  There is a credible relief staff for the first time in many years.  Last year the Tigers were close to first in batting average, but only 10th in runs scored.  This seems like an anomaly that couldn't be repeated.  J.D. is the real deal.  I'm looking for Castellanos to have a break out year.   Justin Upton is an upgrade in left field, and should add some punch.  Free Press sports writer Drew Sharp declared this a 3rd place team, but I think he is dumb.

After 10 games the Tigers are 7-3, a very good start. This would project to 113 wins over 162 games. I don't expect that to happen.  But there are a lot of good things going on.  Batting has been potent, and the runs have come with it.   Tigers and Orioles are leading the league in team batting average, tied at .291. In 11 games, the Orioles have scored 60 runs, to the Tigers 54 in 10.  Tigers are way behind in home runs though, 23 to 14.   So, naturally, the Orioles have the highest slugging percentage, a gonzo .540.  The Tigers are next at .461.  So the offense is working.  Despite getting shut out the other night, the Tigers are averaging 5.4 runs per game.  Baltimore is at 5.54.  Boston is 3rd at 5.3.

Here are the individual batting stats.

PLAYER	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.D. Martinez	39	0.385	0.444	0.538	0.983
Nick Castellanos	38	0.368	0.359	0.605	0.964
Ian Kinsler	45	0.333	0.354	0.556	0.91
Jose Iglesias	30	0.333	0.444	0.367	0.811
Miguel Cabrera	38	0.289	0.4	0.421	0.821
Justin Upton	46	0.261	0.277	0.391	0.668
Anthony Gose	29	0.241	0.313	0.345	0.657
Saltalamacchia	22	0.227	0.292	0.727	1.019

PLAYER	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO
J.D. Martinez	6	15	3	0	1	5	0	0	5	8
Nick Castellanos	7	14	3	0	2	8	0	0	0	11
Ian Kinsler	10	15	1	0	3	8	1	1	2	7
Jose Iglesias	5	10	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	2
Miguel Cabrera	7	11	2	0	1	4	0	0	7	8
Justin Upton	6	12	3	0	1	2	0	0	1	18
Anthony Gose	4	7	0	0	1	2	0	1	3	10
Saltalamacchia	3	5	2	0	3	10	0	0	2	9

Neither Cabrera nor Upton has contributed much as yet.  When they get going, this offense should be terrorizing opposing pitchers.

Here is scoring by inning.

There is some success the first time through the line up.  Lack of 3rd inning scoring is mysterious. Big inning has been the 6th.  This is the 3rd time through the line up, so the batters are figuring out the starters.  Late scoring is encouraging, since the Tigers are getting to the relievers.

I think it's too early to say a lot about pitching.   Team ERA is 3.76.  Not horrible, but only 8th in the A. L.   Opponents batting average is .270, and that is awful.  J.V. is yet to find the stride he had at the end of last season.  His WHIP is 1.59, and ERA is a dismal 7.16.   Sanchez has been good, with a 1.31 WHIP and 3.38 ERA and 2 wins.  Shane Green is looking good with 0.857 WHIP and 2.57 ERA.  The real star has been Jordan Zimmerman, with 2 wins, 13 shutout innings pitched, a 1.00 WHIP and 0.00 ERA.

Here is opponents scoring, on the same scale as the Tigers'.

Starters are having early problems.  Relievers have been decent.

On the defensive side, Tigers lead the A. L. with 1.7 double plays per game - a stat that has been enhanced by 5 turned in the last two games at Houston.

So far so good.  But the White Sox and Royals are both 8-3.  So the Tigers actually are in 3rd place.

Hmmmm  .  .  .

Undead in A Song of Ice and Fire

I count five distinct varieties up to now, not all of whom have made it into the TV series..

Ice zombies - Wights, malevolent reanimated corpses, controlled by The Others.

Fire zombies - Beric Dondarrion, Lady Stone Heart, possibly Melisandre - Reanimated people who retain some or most of their human characteristics, depending on how many times they've been reanimated, and their physical condition as it is performed.   This is accomplished by certain followers of the Red God, R'hllor, by means of its power.   UPDATE -  As this reddit comment points out, Beric and LSH are probably resurrected, rather than merely reanimated.  Clearly, they are quite different from the other types listed here.

Cthulhu zombie - Patchface, whose coded predictions of the future come eerily true.

Bloodraven zombie - Coldhands an apparently intelligent and benign character who is vital in Bran's journey to meet the Three-Eyed-Crow.

Frankenzombie -  Gregor Clegane, aka The Mountain, reanimated as Robert Strong by Qyburn.

Further, it's close to certain that Jon Snow - unless he somehow survived the attack by his murderous Night Watch brothers* - will be brought back, possibly by Melisandre, though perhaps by some other agent.  Bloodraven is a possibility, but I think Val, the Wilding Princess, whose grey eyes mysteriously turned blue, might have a part to play as well.

Did I miss any?

* Which seems to be a lot more definitively fatal in the series than in the book.

Alas, Little Walder - Long Live the Cup Bearer

I just read this year old ASOIAF subreddit on Big Walder killing Little Walder. 

It seems to be pretty much taken for granted that this is the case, since BW is blood spattered, and Ser Hosteen Frey, who carried the boy's body into the great hall is not. The body was frozen when he recovered it. There's a lot of speculation as to BW's motives. But he is only a 9 year old kid. Not that murder by a pre-teen is unprecedented in Westeros - we have Arya in the first book as an example; but the Walders are first cousins, and even Freys, including one as obviously smart and ambitious as BW, wouldn't take kin slaying lightly.

LW's blood had frozen and he was discovered half buried in a snow bank, under the ruined keep with the old gargoyls. I'm not quite 100% certain that this is near the entrance to the crypts, but I strongly suspect that it is.

Which suggests an alternate theory, at least as a possibility.   

State of the Union

President Obama's final State of the Union address has received generally high marks - at least from people who think with their brains and not the nether reaches of their alimentary canals.  But there were a couple things in it that troubled me.

One was his enthusiasm for the TPP.  Undoubtedly, it has some good features.  But it's features were kept secret far too long; and it was never adequately explained to the American people.   Especially troubling is the prospect of foreign corporations being able to sue the U.S. for lost profits due to our internal decisions and rule making.  TransCanada is already using NAFTA provision to sue us for lost profits due to our refusal to let the Keystone XL pipeline go through.   Who knows how much more liability we might face under TPP, and what types of courts or tribunals might make those decisions

Do the proposed benefits of TPP outweigh the potential downsides, which might include direct challenges to U. S. sovereignty? Does TPP benefit U. S. workers, or trans-national mega-corporations? How can anyone decide these question intelligently?

The second was his moment of abject humility over his alleged failure to bridge the partisan gap with the Republicans - as if they hadn't met on the night of his first inauguration and mapped out a strategy to make him fail.  This crystalized for me as I listened to Thom Hartmann while driving home last night. Obama has spoken repeatedly about Dolores Kearns Goodwin's book 'Team of Rivals," which tells the story of the opposition members Lincoln installed in his cabinet. This seems to have influenced him since he said that a greater president, like Lincoln or FDR, would have been able to unite the differing parties.

This is not only false, it is so wrong it makes me sad.  Evidently Obama is still operating under the delusion that the Republicans will work with him to achieve anything.  They've already been blocking the appointment of new ambassadors for well over a year, have slow-walked judicial nominations for as long as they've had the majority, and now will approve no more during Obama's term in office.

When Obama spoke those words on Tuesday, I turned to my lovely wife and said, "For the thousandth time Obama extends an olive branch across the aisle, and for the thousandth time it's dashed to the ground and stomped into splinters."

Lincoln might have worked with members of the opposition, but it was an outspoken opposition sympathizer and anti-abolitionist who murdered him.

FDR, on the other hand, had no regard for bipartisanship.  In a 1936 campaign speech he famously said, "I welcome their hatred."  Then he went on about his business.




I don't know what Obama was thinking.  Maybe this is one more move in his game of 11 dimensional chess.  Certainly he is savvy and far more intelligent than the Republicans who oppose him.

But it looks to me that the time for conciliation is several years past its expiration date; and Obama needs to start educating the American people who their real enemies are.

That would make him a whole lot more like FDR.