I thought I would try some amateur election analysis here, (This post was previously posted here last week.I have reposted it to overcome a technical problem). This is partly for my own amusement and instruction, and probably not at all for yours.. I have (apologies for any errors, and gratitude for any corrections) assembled below what I think is a chart of the major and significant parties’ performances at general elections going back to 1979.
I thought this would be useful first because memories of such details (mine certainly) cloud with time; secondly because the result in terms of seats in parliament can obscure other significant facts and trends.
1979 is really the start of the modern political era, being the last election fought when both major parties (major in the post-1945 era in which we then lived) were still more or less capable of forming an absolute majority and entered the battle on more or less equal terms. Labour *could* have won in 1979. It was also the last election in which the parties were still decentralised mass organisations, rather than centralised command structures where all the money and power were under the control of the centre. It was also the last in which the old Liberal Party occupied the curious space gouged laboriously out for it in the post-war world by Jo Grimond and Jeremy Thorpe, and before the Labour split which led to the formation of the SDP, then the Alliance, and then the Liberal Democrats.
One thing strikes me immediately, which is the *astonishing* recovery (a full 25% gain) of the national Tory vote in 2010 , which didn’t and couldn’t win an election, and the *much* smaller recovery in 2015 (a footling extra half million, less than 5%), which did. I have always put down the 2010 recovery to the readmission of the Tories to polite (i.e. metropolitan liberal) company, following their embrace of political correctness, Green dogma, high social spending and their acceptance of new Labour’s general goodness and legitimacy ( as in Mr Cameron’s open admiration of Anthony Blair, and his description of himself as ‘heir to Blair’ .This, crucially ended the BBC’s period of active hostility to the Tories (all this is analysed and described in my book ‘the Cameron Delusion, never more relevant). It was this recovery which I had hoped and striven above all things to avoid, for it ended any realistic hope that the Tory Party would go down the plughole, as it still so richly serves to do.
The figures also show that the Tories are still miles short of the figures they used to get in the Thatcher-Major era. I am still unsure how or why John Major came to do so well in 1992, and I was there at the time and may even have played some part in it I think it may have been at the national equivalent of the man with the toothache abandoning his appointment with the dentist at the last minute. Fat lot of good it did us all, anyway.
The Labour figures are even more dispiriting, as they reach their peak during the dominance of the most repulsive and unqualified mountebank to occupy Downing Street for many decades. If people word why I express doubts about the virtues of democracy, the repeated electoral success of Blairish projects from whatever direction is my main explanation. But it also shows that the Miliband era, now widely dismissed as a cataclysm for Labour, was not wholly disastrous, and would quite possibly have produced a Labour minority government had it not been for the unforeseeable and wholly unstoppable explosion in SNP support.
I do think the Tory Party is extremely devious, but even I do not believe that Mr Cameron can have expected his pettifogging about ‘English Votes for English Laws’ after the close referendum vote in September to have had quite such an effect. He would have had to understand Scotland a lot better than he seems to do, to have calculated such a thing. The law of unintended consequences is everywhere irresistible, and Mr Cameron, by this national blunder, achieved a partisan triumph.
Most striking of all is the great missed opportunity of the SDP-Liberal Alliance, which might have supplanted Labour had certain things not happened which need not have happened, as I think I have mentioned here before. I blame Margaret Thatcher for having acted to save the Labour Party , or partisan rather than national reasons. If the Alliance had displaced Labour, we would now have a much clearer and more intelligent political divide in this country, and the Tory Party might actually have come out of the Cold War as a proper conservative formation rather than as the Blairite rabble it now is. It’s one of the most interesting might-have-beens in politics.
Then of course there is the terrific achievement, in a very short time, of UKIP. I suppose this may continue, though current events are not heartening. The problem with UKIP us that it really doesn’t have any real idea of what it wants to achieve. Its attempt to become a significant Parliamentary party, and the absurd talk of it forming some sort of coalition with the Tories, were both delusional. It mistook success in the PR-governed Euro-elections and low-poll local votes as a guide to Parliamentary success. It misunderstood the meaning of its by-election victories (though Rochester and Strood was uncomfortably narrow and should have served as a warning). Its main task was always to rip into the underbelly of the Tories and destroy them. Having failed to do so, I now suspect it will use its voting base and organisation to attack Labour. This may well be moderately successful, but the continuing success of the Tory party in getting conservative people to vote for a radical-liberal party out of fear that , if they do not, there will be a radical liberal government - *and not mind when they find that their votes have brought about the very thing they voted to prevent* - dooms all efforts at supplanting the Tories in the foreseeable future. All that is left is to watch and laugh.
Tories
2015: 11,334,930 (36.9%) 331 seats
2010: 10,806,015 (36.4%) 306 seats
2005: 8,784,915 (32.4%) 198 seats
2001: 8,357,615 (31.7%) 166 seats
1997: 9,600,943 (30.7%) 165 seats
1992: 14,093,007 (41.9%) 336 seats
1987 13,760,935 (42.2%) 376 seats
1983 13,012,316 (42.4%) 397 seats
1979 13,697,923 (43.9%) 339 seats
Labour
2015:9,344,328 (30.4%) 232 seats
2010: 8,609,527 (29%) 258 seats
2005: 9,552,436 (35.2%) 355 seats
2001:10,724,953 (40.7%) 413 seats
1997: 13,518,167 (43.2%) 418 seats
1992: 11,560,484 (34.4%) 271 seats
1987: 10,029,270 (30.8%) 229 seats
1983: 8,456,934 (27.6%) 209 seats
1979: 11,532,218 (36.9%) 269 seats
UKIP
2015: 3,881,129 (12.6%); 1 seat
2010: 919,471; (3.1%) ;No seats
2005: 605,973(2.2%) ;No seats
2001: 390,563 (1.2%) No seats
1997: 105,722 (0.3%) No seats
1992: Not standing
Liberal Democrats
2015: 2,415,888(7.9%) 8 seats
2010: 6,836,824 (23%) 57 seats
2005: 5,985,454 (22%) 62 seats
2001: 4,814,321 (18.3%) 52 seats
1997: 5,242,947 (16.8%) 46 seats
1992: 5,999,606 (17.8%) 20 seats
1987 (SDP-Liberal Alliance) 7,341,651 (22.6%) 22 seats
1983 (Liberals 4,273,146, SDP 3,521,624) Total 7,794,770 (25.4%) 23 seats
1979 Liberals : 4,313,804 (13.8%) 11 seats
SNP
2015: 1,454,436(4.7%) 56 seats
2010: 491,386(1.7%) 6 seats
2005: 412,267(1.5%) 6 seats
2001: 464,314 (1.8%) 5 seats
1997: 621,550 (2.0%) 6 seats
1992: 629,564 (1.9%) 3 seats
1987 416,473 (1.3%) 3 seats
1983 331,975 (1.1%) 2 seats
1979 504,259 (1.6%) 2 seats
A few notes on the actual details of the election (this artuicle was first osted last week and is now re-postedm, to oercome a technical problem:
In 2015, in untargeted English seats, Tories often flagged badly and Labour did quite well, suggesting that the national trend may well have been closer to the polls than the result might suggest.
In Cambridge Labour increased its vote from 12,174 to 18,646 to beat the Liberals. It is hard to see tactical voting, or a wave of late Tory supporters, operating here. The Tories dropped from 12,829 (25.6%) to 8,117 (15.6%) UKIP performed poorly, hardly increasing its share from 2010.
In my own Oxford East constituency, where Tory activity was negligible, Labour’s popular Andrew Smith actually increased his vote to 50% of those polled, with the Tory trailing miles behind, and barely benefiting at all from a Liberal Democrat collapse. The Greens must have taken quite a bit of that, and UKIP perhaps took from the Tories what they gained from the Liberal Democrats. One can only guess at these ebbs and flows.
Oxford West, another constituency about which I know a little, is a peculiar seat. It was taken by the Tories from the Liberals in 2010 against the trend, (most think this had something to do with Christian objections to the Liberal Democrat MP Evan Harris, largely thanks to his militant secularist position on many issues). Given that the Tory Party is a defeated relic in the whole city of Oxford, no longer represented at all on the council, it is interesting that it even so has a Tory MP for one of its divisions. This MP, Nicola Blackwood, survived and prospered in 2015, hugely increasing her tiny 2010 majority over the Liberal Democrat. But this also looks like astute targeting. The Labour vote (though a poor third place) actually rose.
Also interesting is Bath, a similarly prosperous city with many middle-class professionals, university etc, famously lost by the Wet Tory Chris (later Lord) Patten ( ‘Tory gain!’, whooped some Tories, who regarded Patten as hopelessly left-wing) in 1992:
In 2010 the Lib Dems held Bath with an enormous majority 26,651 to the Tory 14,768. No other party did at all well. In 2015 (on an almost identical turnout) , the Greens polled a creditable 5,634 (compared with 1,120 in 2010) and Labour increased its share from 3,251 to 6,216. This must have cut into the Lib Dem vote, but was surely not enough to reduce it to 14,000. UKIP also increased its vote from 890 to 2,922
Let’s try another seat that changed hands, Morley and Outwood, where Leeds and Wakefield meet, held by Ed Balls in 2010. Mr Balls had previously held the Morley and Rothwell division, re-engineered into Morley and Outwood (a far more marginal constituency than before) by the Boundary Commission in 2010.
But his majority in 2010 had been very small - 18,365 to the Tory challenger’s 17,264.
This was plainly a target seat, where whatever necromantic methods were deployed by both main parties would have been used to the utmost, quite possibly for some years before 2015.
Ed Balls actually scored (on a very slightly lower turnout) 18,354 votes, eleven (yes, eleven) fewer than the 18,365 he had won in 2010. The Tory candidate, Andrea Jenkyns, won 18,776 , 1,512 more than her forerunner had garnered in 2010. This isn’t much, but it was enough. The Liberal Democrats collapsed from 8,186 to 1,426. Where did they all go? The Greens, on a first foray, may have helped cost Mr Balls the seat by collecting a respectable 1,264. The really big gainers in votes were UKIP, who increased their vote from 1,505 in 2010 to 7,951 this year. Some of these must have come from the BNP, which scored 3,535 in 2010 and didn’t stand in 2015. Some must have come from Labour. I’d guess that while quite a few Liberal Democrats switched *to* Labour, quite a few Labour voters switched to UKIP and the Greens. But a crucial 1,500 or so Lib Dems switched to the Tories.
A very similar process took place in Derby North, an even more marginal constituency and one of remarkably few seats to change hands between Labour and the Tories. If you look at the rather short list of seats that did change hands, the great majority were lost to the SNP by Labour in one of those total, overpowering changes of opinion which happen less than once in a generation and which no amount of canvassing or targeting could have altered, though I’ve no doubt that such waves can be and were amplified by the media and political adulation bestowed on Nicola Sturgeon. The next biggest category are Tory gains from Liberal Democrats. Labour also made some gains from the Liberal Democrats, in London and the North. And they made a few notable gains from the Tories, events which also belie the rapidly solidifying myth of a total Tory triumph.
I mentioned Bath above, a Tory gain from the Liberal Democrats. But one reason for this *might* have been that the incumbent Liberal Democrat MP had stood down. Almost everyone who has ever covered a by-election, including me, would have said before 2015 that the Liberal Democrats had an extraordinarily effective machine for getting and holding seats through dogged, detailed hard work and identification with local issues. I would have said that this would have resisted most national swings, especially when backed by the big personal votes which incumbent MPs can pile up by assiduous attention to such detail.
So let’s look at North Devon, an English Liberal Democrat seat with a longstanding incumbent, yet captured by the Tories.
The changeover is astonishing. This is not, I think, an area in which Liberal Democrat voters have ever been especially left-wing or likely to rush to Labour over the tuition-fee betrayal. In fact, I should have thought it an area where the Coalition was probably quite well-received. Nick Harvey is a prominent and articulate politician, who got quite a lot of broadcasting time, and could easily be mistaken for a Tory if you hadn’t been told. What is more, he had held the seat since 1992, and I don’t doubt that his local organisation was pretty good.
In 2010, Mr Harvey polled 24,305 to his Tory rival’s 18,484. UKIP was undistinguished but solid at 3,720 and Labour a romantic survival with 2,671. The Greens were on 697.
In 2015, the Tory candidate won 22,341. Mr Harvey’s total shrank melodramatically to 15,405. UKIP, meanwhile, won a respectable 7,719, which couldn’t have come from Labour because Labour’s vote went *up* to 3,699, as did the Green tally, which rose nearly five-fold to 3,018. My guess is that the extra UKIP voters were disenchanted Tories, but that it simply didn’t matter because the Tory campaign had achieved such an avalanche of Liberal Democrat defectors that there was no stopping them. I would list this as one of the seats the Tories never really expected or (nationally ) much wanted to win. But modern electoral weapons , once launched, cannot easily be controlled. If they could be, we would have a coalition, and the Tory manifesto would be in the bin where they always intended to throw it, rather than being taken seriously. Laughter, once again, must be the main response.