Here is a cautionary tale, a tale of two regional economic catastrophes.
Kodak invented the digital camera in 1975, but it disastrously failed to anticipate the impact the new technology would have on its print and film business. The result was a cataclysmic decline.
In its heyday in the early 1980s, Kodak generated work for more than 60,000 people in its hometown of Rochester, New York. By 2012, the company had filed for bankruptcy, with just 2300 employees.
Still, as a report from Environment Victoria to be released this week makes clear, it could have been much worse.
Kodak shed more than 50,000 jobs during the three decades to 2012. Yet over the same period, total employment in Rochester grew by 90,000.
The argument is that the Rochester community was able to cushion the inevitable blow by recognising – early on – that the city must be more than a one-industry town.
The area already had a growing pool of skilled ex-Kodak workers to tap into, which turned out to be useful for new industries in areas such as optics and photonics. It also had a strong tertiary education sector and prominent cultural institutions, thanks in part to corporate philanthropy by Kodak.
These natural advantages, as well as the use of interventions such as grants, loans and tax credits helped encouraged new business in food and beverage manufacturing, biotech, energy innovation and IT.
The report invites us to compare and contrast this with the experience of South Wales, in Britain. At its peak, the British coal industry employed more than 1 million men, before entering a long and painful economic decline that started after the Second World War.
After the miners' strike of 1984, more than 25,000 Welsh miner lost their jobs during a decade-long program of pit closures started by the Thatcher government. Unlike the experience of Rochester, there was no plan to cope with the enormous social dislocation and unemployment that followed.
The pain is still being felt to this day, with more than 10 per cent of the Welsh population reportedly claiming disability welfare benefits, twice the British average.
Industries inevitably fail – sometimes because of new "disruptive" technology, sometimes under the influence of powerful global economic forces. When they do, the pain is usually bourne disproportionately by specific geographic areas.
Why is all of this relevant? Because Victoria's Latrobe Valley is probably in the midst of similar upheaval. As it is, parts of the valley are struggling with high unemployment, and low incomes (not to mention other indicators of disadvantage such as poor health). In Morwell, for example, the unemployment rate is 19.7 per cent (according to the Department of Employment). In Moe it is 14.6 per cent.
The Latrobe Valley may have a proud history of supplying cheap power to the state. But those days are probably going to end. As reported by The Age, Hazelwood power station is likely to be closed by its majority owner, French energy company Engie, possibly as early as next April.
Part of the problem is that the plant is old and potentially unsafe. Modernising it would cost tens of millions of dollars, taking years for it to return to profitability. And at time when the world is struggling to tackle climate change, it is an investment Engie is apparently unwilling to make, having long-signalled it does not see a future for coal.
So far long-held hopes of an economically viable "clean coal" solution have failed to materialise. As reported by The Age earlier this month, a $90 million scheme to encourage new markets for the valley's vast brown coal reserves by making it cleaner and more profitable has done little, with two out of three projects shelved and tens of millions of dollars of public funding sitting idle.
Clearly, the valley would be unwise to hold its breath hoping all will be well. Just like Rochester in the 1990s, and South Wales in the 1980s, it is at a difficult juncture.
As Environment Victoria points out, the valley is still feeling the effects of the poorly managed electricity privatisation in the 1990s, including low incomes, high long -term unemployment and other indicators of social disadvantage.
There are some signs reality is sinking in. The Andrews government has, for example, announced a $40 million transition fund, although how it will work is still unclear.
There are plenty of options. According to Environment Victoria, a home energy efficiency retrofit for Gippsland would create up to 620 jobs over 10 years and save households $58 million on their power bills, while a commercial energy efficiency scheme has the potential to save local businesses about $28 million a year. A sustainable prefabricated housing construction program and solar hot water manufacturing have also been put forward as options.
Mine rehabilitation is another area that could help sustain the local economy (according to a 2014 report it could generate $1.2 billion of economic activity over 20 years and create hundreds of jobs).
None of this is to say that government intervention is always the solution as soon as industries face challenges.
But if we want avoid much bigger costs down the track such as entrenched economic disadvantage, social dislocation and poor health outcomes, it is time to wake up to the reality that brown coal-fired power isn't going to be enough to sustain the valley into the future.
How governments, the local community and the private sector respond from here could make all the difference.
Josh Gordon is The Age's state political editor.