With a calmer-than-normal Martinsville weekend behind us, the Sprint Cup Series heads to the Lone Star State for Saturday night racing in the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Teams will once again get to learn more about the low downforce aero package this weekend, as the racing at a short track like Martinsville isn’t very dependent on it. This race will be very important for teams to learn as much as they can for when NASCAR revisits the track during the Chase.
While we’ve already gotten a taste of the package on mile and a half tracks like Atlanta and Las Vegas, Texas brings a much different challenge to the table. With the race being ran at night, cooling track conditions mixed with the track’s aged surface will likely affect the handling of the cars and lines that drivers can run.
After being able to bump and push their way through traffic last week, drivers will also have to be more patient if they want to be around for the finish at Texas.
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One of the main keys to last week’s race was to conserve brakes, but tire wear will once again become a major factor this weekend if the race sees any long green flag runs.
Drivers looking to score a victory on an intermediate to secure their Chase hopes will want to strike this weekend, as the Cup Series won’t visit another mile and a half track for nearly a month.
Here’s what to watch for throughout the weekend and during the Duck Commander 500.
Johnson’s Dominance
One of the first drivers that comes to mind when thinking about front runners at Texas is obviously Jimmie Johnson.
Sure, Johnson is typically a threat at any track the tour visits, but his favorability to win at Texas is always high. The six-time champion has track figured out like no other, having won four out of its last six races.
It’s not just the power behind the No. 48 team that’s carried them to two wins in the first six races this season. Johnson has seemingly regained a vintage swagger that carried him to six championships in eight years and it could propel him to new heights. The team is hitting their stride and seem to be the main threat to dethrone Joe Gibbs Racing from the top of NASCAR.
Through a new aero package at the No. 48 team, but it may not really matter. This is the same Texas Motor Speedway and Johnson still owns the keys to victory lane.
Upset Brewing
The 2016 season has yielded some great racing, however, one of the biggest surprises has been the number of fresh faces running up front.
Austin Dillon has been one of the main breakthrough drivers this season. His consistency has been a year in the making since he was paired with crew chief Slugger Labbe at Sonoma Raceway last year.
Now the two are consistently running in the top-10 and sitting pretty on the Chase Grid right now. It looks as though the No. 3 car could make the Chase this year based on points, the team would much rather get Dillon his first Sprint Cup Series win in the process.
Rookies Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney have also shown a lot of strength to start the season and there is no reason why they couldn’t spoil the party this weekend. The drivers will roll of fourth and seventh, respectively, showing plenty of speed between qualifying and practice sessions.
After seasons of struggles, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has become the front runner for Roush Fenway Racing and is still in search of his first win. The No. 17 team starts fifth on Saturday and has just as good of chance as any of the aforementioned drivers to grab their first win and punch their ticket to the Chase.
Predictions
About.com NASCAR expert Matt Weaver
Given his success at Atlanta and Fontana this season, it's hard to bet against Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team on Saturday night. Plus, they have those dayglo yellow numbers that have to be good for an extra tenth of a second, right
About.com NASCAR contributor Joey Chapman
Drivers beware, because this is Jimmie Johnson’s race to lose. He has been practically unbeatable at Texas in the Gen 6 race car and it feels like his dominance will continue this weekend.
Having already won twice this year, it seems Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are just able to sit back and do what they feel necessary to win races with no worries. Oh, and the yellow numbers the once adorned the No. 48 machine during his most dominant years have made their long awaited comeback.
Starting Order
Carl Edwards
Joey Logano
Martin Treux Jr.
Chase Elliott
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Deny Hamlin
Ryan Blaney
Brad Keselowski
Matt Kenseth
Austin Dillon
Jimmie Johnson
Trevor Bayne
Brian Vickers
Greg Biffle
Kyle Busch
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Kasey Kahne
Jamie McMurray
Ryan Newman
Kyle Larson
Kurt Busch
Kevin Harvick
AJ Allmendinger
Aric Almirola
Paul Menard
Danica Patrick
Brian Scott
Regan Smith
Matt DiBenedetto
Ty Dillon
David Ragan
Casey Mears
Landon Cassill
Chris Buescher
Michael Annett
Clint Bowyer
Cole Whitt
Jeffrey Earnhardt
Josh Wise
Reed Sorenson