We could blink, and wake up next year with One Nation forming part of a Queensland government.
It seems preposterous now, without any representatives in the State Parliament, but it is entirely possible. And in several strategists' minds, entirely likely.
![Senator Pauline Hanson is congratulated by Senator Malcolm Roberts after delivering her first speech in the Senate at ...](/web/20161007174325im_/http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/g/e/u/p/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.grvryn.png/1475672106528.jpg)
This is their thinking.
Annastacia Palaszczuk's Labor government is on the nose. Despite her personal popularity (which shows up again and again in polling), her party is going nowhere.
![One Nation would be mad not to have its eyes on becoming a junior coaltion partner.](/web/20161007174325im_/http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/g/s/l/e/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.grvryn.png/1475672106528.jpg)
And its move to introduce compulsory preferential voting, while masterful while One Nation was nowhere, now looks like a noose around its neck.
One Nation polled up to 20 per cent of the vote in some Queensland seats at the federal poll. It is planning to run candidates in every state seat.
And while it was a fringe party, with little professionalism back in 1998 when it won 11 seats in the Queensland Parliament, it is now much more mainstream. Just look at the influence it is having, already, on federal policies.
One Nation's coffers are fuller than they've ever been, and, cleverly, it has now launched an appeal to local councillors to run under the One Nation banner.
![Despite Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's personal popularity, her party is going nowhere.](/web/20161007174325im_/http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/content/dam/images/g/q/8/p/f/3/image.related.articleLeadNarrow.300x0.grvryn.png/1475672106528.jpg)
That will all hurt Labor, and while strategists disagree on the number of seats One Nation will win (some say two, while others say up to 15), they are kicking themselves over their own goal - the decision to make preferences compulsory.
None of this is good news for the LNP either, with Tim Nicholls so far failing to capitalise on the leadership change, and senior party members disagreeing on whether it should court One Nation, or repel it.
Some senior LNP heads believe that One Nation is now more acceptable (and why wouldn't they, given what polling shows) and the party will only miss out if it doesn't do a deal to preference swap, or to encourage a preference flow.
Others - mainly those with their head in the sand - believe that strategy will backfire on the party, and it should campaign strongly on its own ground, without giving any to the new party on the block.
One Nation might not win many seats, but the influence it is having now already shows how much power it has to determine who does win.
Both major parties are not putting forward strong policy ideas; they're spending their time wondering how to best swat One Nation from the state scene.
And that's unlikely, unless the wheels quickly fall off Pauline Hanson and her Canberra bandwagon.
This is why Ms Palaszczuk used a big speech last week to signal an attack on Hansonites. That's why the LNP, behind the scenes, is struggling to find a unified campaign position on One Nation.
There's another factor here, that's rarely seen in politics. Usually the parties spend a lot of money and a lot of time on internal polling, to give them the heads-up of where they should campaign and even what policies they should release.
This time around, neither party is doing that yet. That's because four extra seats will be put into the Queensland Parliament, and that will shake up boundaries everywhere. To poll now, with those boundaries unknown, would probably end up a massive waste of money.
And that's why members on both sides are in the dark about One Nation's likely effect at the next state poll.
All of that is playing into One Nation's hands. In 1998 in Queensland, it received 439,121 votes - or 22.68 percent of formal vote, and believes it can do better this time.
It's praying that ON is Queensland's Brexit; or even Queensland's Donald Trump. Voting for the party in 1998 was a bit of a stretch for many. But Brexit and the rise of the anti-politician seen in Mr Trump's support makes voting against the major parties very legitimate.
And ON knows the value of Ms Palaszczuk's compulsory preferential voting system.
It would be mad - whether you like it or not - not to have its eye on the big prize. And that would be as a junior coalition partner, in government.
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