Sic Semper Tyrannis

"Strike The Tent" trilogy by W. Patrick Lang

    

To Order Directly From the Author:

Rosemont Books

PO Box 2713

Leesburg, VA 20177

Pricing for Perfect bound Softcover: 

The Butcher's Cleaver:  $23.95 (Hardcover $33.95)

Death Piled Hard:  $18.95   (Hardcover $28.95)

Down the Sky:  $15.95  (Hardcover $25.95) 

Please add $3.99 S&H handling for each book ordered, or $11.89 for all three books in the Trilogy.

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Also Available from:

 iUniverse

 
http://bookstore.iuniverse.com/AdvancedSearch/Default.aspx?SearchTerm=W.+Patrick+Lang

E-Book version of all three available at iUniverse

Barnes and Noble

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/s/W--Patrick-Lang?keyword=W.+Patrick+Lang&store=allproducts&iehack=%E2%98%A0

Amazon

http://www.amazon.com/Butchers-Cleaver-Confederate-Secret-Services/dp/0595474764/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1358700423&sr=1-1&keywords=The+Butcher%27s+Cleaver

I was interviewed some time ago by the North Carolina Museum of History concerning the writing of this trilogy.

"The Confederate Secret Services, a conversation with W. Patrick Lang, novelist, retired U.S. Army colonel, and military intelligence consultant

Patrick Lang discusses his two novels, The Butcher’s Cleaver and Death Piled Hard, both of which focus on Claude Devereux, a Virginia banker who is recruited by the Confederate secret service and placed in the office of Union secretary of war Edwin Stanton. Approximate run time: 24 minutes. Podcast " 

This podcast is highly recommended

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"Science currently holds that time travel is an impossibility, but readers of Down the Sky, thefinal volume of Colonel Pat Lang’s Strike the Tent trilogy will question that assertion. Code-named “Hannibal,” Confederate penetration agent Claude Devereux is firmly lodged in the upper echelons of the Federal war machine. Now a Brigadier General of the Union forces with the new Congressional Medal of Honor on his chest, Major Devereux of the Confederate Secret Service knows time is running out. His minders in Richmond may no longer trust him, his personal life is a shambles, and Union spy-catcher Lafayette Baker is determined to bring him down. Only his peculiar, personal friendship with President Lincoln holds his enemies at bay.

 

“The Americans stand on our side” by Jurgen Todenhofer

"Abu al-Ezz, commander, says about Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda): “We are one part of al-Qaeda. Our principles are: Fighting vice, pureness and security. Our affairs and our way have changed. Israel, for example, is now supporting us, because Israel is at war with Syria and with Hizbullah."  Todenhofer

*******

"Our aim is the downfall of the dictatorial regime, the tyrannical regime, the regime of the apostate. Our aim is the conduct of conquests, like [the great Arab general] Khaled ibn al-Walid made them. First in the Arab world and then in Europe."  Todenhofer

********

"To whom did the U.S. hand those missiles before they were brought to you? Were those missiles first given to the Free Syrian Army by the U.S. and from there to you?

No, the missiles were give directly to us. They were delivered to a certain group. When the “road” was closed and we were besieged we had officers here from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States."  Todenhofer

******

 "We do not recognize the ceasefire. We will reposition our groups. We will undertake in the next, in a few days an overwhelming attack against the regime. We have rearranged all our armed forces in all provinces, in Homs, Aleppo, Idlib and Hama."  Todenhofer

****

"You do not want those 40 trucks with aid supplies to bring those into the eastern part of Aleppo?

We have demands. As longs as the regime is positioned along Castello road, in al-Malah and in the northern areas we will not let those trucks pass. The regime must retreat from all areas in order for us to let the trucks pass. If a truck come in despite that we will arrest the driver.

Why did a few of your groups pull back a kilometer or 500 meters from the Castello road?

The regime used highly developed weapons against us. We received a backlash. That is why we silently retreated, to recover and to attack the regime anew. But this attack must lead to the downfall of the regime.

So that was a trick, a military tactic?

Yes, it was a military tactic."    Todenhofer

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Jurgen Todenhofer is a German journalist.  He traveled to Aleppo where he interviewed Abu al Ezz, a Nusra Front Commander.  MoA, Barish and several others have written of this interview but there are several things about it that I find so interesting that I will comment as well.

1.  al-Ezz states clearly that Israel considers the Nusra Front jihadis to be allies because Israel is at war with Syria and Hizbullah.   I have often written that Israel is an inept and short sighted analyst of its own interests.  The Nusra Front is presently fighting its other enemies in Syria, but do the Israelis believe that when that is done the basic jihadi impulse against Zionism will have disappeared in an aura of good feeling created by Israeli support for the jihadis? 

2.  al-Ezz states that deliveries of US weapons (presumably by CIA) is made directly to them and not to the Free Syrian Army "moderates.  He also states that both Israel and the US have liaison people positioned with the Nusra Front in Syria generally and in East Aleppo specifically.

3.  al-Ezz makes it clear that at the time of the interview the jihadis intended to use the ceasefire as cover for a re-positioning of forces and were preparing for a general offensive to be launched after forces were re-positioned under protection of the ceasefire.  We have now seen part of that in Homs and Hama Provinces.

4.  al-Ezz makes it clear that the jihadis in East Aleppo are indifferent to the suffering of whatever remaining civilian population are still trapped there with them.  For the jihadis the movement of relief supplies into East Aleppo is just something to be used as "a military tactic."  pl

https://southfront.org/todenhofer-interview-with-al-nusra-commander-the-americans-stand-on-our-side/

Bellingcat proves the Russians didn't do it.

By Patrick Armstrong

The Bellingcat site has a piece entitled "Confirmed : Russian Bomb Remains Recovered from Syrian Red Crescent Aid Convoy Attack" which includes this picture as well as several others. You may look at the others, but this one picture is apodictic proof 1) that the Russians (or Syrians) didn't do it and 2) that Bellingcat is a loyal servant of the Borg.

 He spends a lot of efforts to establish that the metal piece is the tail piece of a Russian-made OFAB 250-270 Fragmentation High Explosive Bomb. No argument there, I'm sure it is. Said bomb has 92kg of explosive. Which is quite a lot.

 

• If said bomb has exploded in this not very large room, all those cardboard boxes would be torn to pieces and burned. To say nothing of a lot more damage to the room itself. Therefore it did not explode in that room.

• If said bomb was a dud and did not explode, where is the rest of it? Therefore the bomb is not a dud.

• Therefore the bomb piece was put there to make it look as if the Russians had done it. (And not very competently either: note that it is supposed to have come through the ceiling and neatly placed itself underneath some undamaged cardboard boxes.)

• If it is necessary to produce a fake picture, then the Russians didn't do it.

• QED

And, as a bonus, by perpetrating this fraud, Bellingcat has also proved that he is a stooge of the war party.

 

A lot to deduce from one photo, isn't it? It used to be that it took more effort to disprove Bellingcat's fakes. He's losing his touch.

 

 

"HOW THE BORG SPENDS 36 HOURS IN TEXAS" by Michael Brenner Ph. D.

The combined security/Intelligence communities held a high-powered public conference at the University of Texas in Austin last week.  This has become a regular event blessed by Chancellor (Admiral) William McRaven who previously commanded headed JSOM. (“I'm not a political guy.”)  The line-up of heavy hitters was impressive:  Clapper, McLaughlin, Hadley, Breedlove. Zelikow, Negroponte, Eliot Cohen, General Norton Schwartz (former Chief of staff, Air Force), Joshua Bolten (Bush Chief of Staff), John Helgerson (CIA Inspector General), Kurt Campbell.  Its purpose, though, remains obscure. Outreach to the American public is one standard explanation for this type of shindig. Communication in this instance, though, was one-way. The panels included only true believers in a hard-line, aggressive approach to a very long security agenda. The speakers roster was similarly stacked. Token participants from outside the “community’ who had figured in previous meetings were nowhere in sight. So what the public gets is instruction rather than exchange or communication.

The choice of Texas is particularly odd since there are very few locals who need conversion. At last year's event, John Brennan's litany of grievances against all those who, like the Senate Intelligence Committee, who were trying to rein in the CIA, NSA, et al elicited a standing ovation from the entire audience (minus one). The level of enthusiasm was what one might expect had he announced the decimation of the last Comanche band or the State Supreme Court's decision to void all land grants to Mexicans from the King of Spain. In 2015, the Islamic State, Russia, China and - not least- domestic enemies provided the amphetamine-like rush. Same this year.

This effusive welcome is not surprising. After all, Texas is where the Governor (Abbott) called out the State Guard to defend the citizenry from the threat of abuse by U.S. army units engaged in a training exercise one county North of Austin. He voiced sympathy for their claimed fears about possible rapine, robbery and wreckage.  So did almost all other elected officials.

In other words, the event had elements of an Evangelical rally - even though the crowd leaned toward the elderly albeit with a considerable sprinkling of the college aged and Generation ‘Xs.’  Still, it was illuminating to hear the Word straight from the apostles.  Understandably, in those congenial conditions restraint or ellipse are dispensed with in outbursts of self-satisfied candor.

Perhaps a better metaphor is a gathering of senior prelates in Rome sometime in the early 17^th Century. For America’s foreign policy Establishment has a “near enemy” and a “far enemy.”  The former includes those forces who would curb the robust exertion of power at home and abroad – either through misguided legal constraints or a scaling back of its audacious goals. The aroused opposition to draconian surveillance and associated illegalities had been a threat to the Establishment’s authority and legitimacy.

"Barbarism!" cries Samantha Power at the UN

I am at a loss to know what the US, the UK and France think they are going to accomplish at this special session of the Security Council.

Samantha Power seems deranged.  Her desire to impose R2P solutions on the world are now expressed in speech and behavior outside the norms of international relations unless war is a desired outcome.  Does she really think that the US should fight Russia?  Or does she think like that strange man, McCain, that the Russians and Syrians would not fight to prevent the establishment of a NFZ that obviously would become a haven for the jihadis?

Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council.  Russia will veto any resolution it sees as antithetical to its policy and interests.

What kind of charade are we seeing at the UN?  pl

http://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-syria-idINKCN11U0C3

81% 0f Americans oppose the $38 billion military gift to Israel

 

 "A solid majority of Americans would redirect $38 billion the Obama Administration pledged to Israel toward other priorities.

The Obama administration last week signed an executive agreement with Israel pledging $38 billion ($3.8 billion per year) in foreign aid for fiscal years 2019- 2028. The majority of the proposed spending is for Foreign Military Financing to provide Israel advanced and upgraded jet fighters, to continue developing Israel’s missile defense systems and to purchase other U.S. weapons. Although the White House has released a Memorandum of Understanding fact sheet, the actual MOU has not been made publicly available.

An IRmep poll fielded by Google Consumer Surveys reveals 80.8 percent of the US adult Internet user population says they would redirect the proposed spending toward other priorities. Caring for veterans (20.7 percent) was their top priority, followed by education spending (20.1 percent) and paying down the national debt (19.3 percent). Rebuilding US infrastructure was favored by 14.9 percent, while funding a Middle East peace plan received 5.8 percent of support.

Only 16.8 percent said the $38 billion of pledged foreign aid should be spent on Israel."  Grant Smith

http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2016/09/19/81-americans-oppose-38-billion-pledge-israel/

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A change of pace from the Borg Wars and the political circus.  pl

Flash! Washpost discovers that Syria War may be "winnable."

" ... the launch of the offensive called into question the entire premise of the agreement painstakingly negotiated by Kerry and Lavrov over the past eight months: that Russia shares the Obama administration’s view that there is no military solution to the conflict. On that basis, U.S. officials have explained, Moscow would be willing to pursue a negotiated settlement in return for a cease-fire and the prestige of eventually conducting joint military operations in Syria alongside the United States against terrorist groups.

[How the Syrian revolt went so horribly, tragically wrong]

At a news conference in New York, Lavrov offered a starkly different point of view. He said it is the United States that needs to come around to the idea that President Bashar al-Assad is the only viable partner in the fight against terrorism, calling his army “the single most efficient force fighting terror in Syria.”

“Little by little, life will make everyone understand that it’s only together that you can fight terrorism,” Lavrov said.

His comments, alongside the events of the past week, suggest that Russia and Syria still believe the war can be won outright, without recourse to negotiations that the United States has said offer the only way out of the Syrian tragedy."  Liz Sl at the Washpost.

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Well, pilgrims, this war was always winnable.  We have said that at SST for a long time and continue to believe that this is the truth.  IMO the Russians have also known it was the truth but have been willing to humor the Borgist foreign policy establishments to learn what possibilities there might be for a general improvement of Russian-US relations.  Having now been screwed by the US/the jihadis/and Gulfie "friends" in; a couple of ceasefires designed to allow the jihadi/unicorns to re-group and re-supply, the evidently treacherous attack on SAA forces at Deir al-Zor and the IO flim-flam over the Red Crescent convoy the Russians and their pals seem to have decided to go for the "win the war" option. 

As of today, forces have been massed at Aleppo for the purpose of eliminating the East Aleppo rebel pocket.  This pocket has now been without re-supply for an extended period.  This is true for both the jihadi rebels and the civilian population, many of whom are rebel supporters.

IMO the main effort by R+6 is taking place at the SE side of the East Aleppo pocket.  That is now underway with massive CAS from Russian aerospace forces.

At the same time Palestinian militia allies with CAS have attacked the fortified Handarat refugee camp at the NE corner of the pocket.  IMO this is a secondary attack intended to prevent the rebels moving forces south to oppose the main R+6 effort.

This is an excellent plan.

At the same time there is an unconfirmed report from SOHR in London (pro-rebel) that a Russian force with 3,000 men has been positioned at al-Safir about 12 km. SE of the main attacks on the Aleppo pocket.  If this report is correct this force is well positioned to reinforce the main attack or be used in a defensive move against a rebel effort elsewhere.  It would be in the Russian operational tradition to pass a reinforcing "wave" or echelon of forces through the initial assault forces when they become exhausted by combat.

At the same time the remarkably ineffective Turkish/FSA effort along the Turkish border NE of Aleppo ensures the distraction of IS forces which might interfere with R+6 efforts at Aleppo City.

The foreign policy establishment (Borg) in the West wants to believe that war is obsolete as a factor in the story of humanity.  People created by poly sci/ IR programs across North America and Western Europe are convinced that they are smarter, and more "evolved" than mere soldiers.  They believe that they have inherited the earth and that their cleverness will always prevail over mere force. 

We will now have a demonstration that this is not true.  pl          

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-ferocious-assault-on-aleppo-suggests-the-us-may-be-wrong-on-syria/2016/09/23/909e33b0-80d9-11e6-9578-558cc125c7ba_story.html

"A Ramble on Hillary" By Richard Sale

 

(I told Pat that I was writing about Hillary Clinton, and wanted the article to be in two parts. This is the first part.  The second will attempt to describe the email scandal.)

Kissinger once observed that in contemporary America, political power “gravitates towards those who have an obsessive desire to win it by any means, and whoever does not monomaniacaly desire the goal of getting it, whoever afraid of it or disdains it, will fail, however great their qualifications.” To a political leader, voters are the means of attaining their aims. Voters are flattered, cajoled, admired, wooed, pressured and are endlessly courted and pursued.  The great bulk of voters are gullible and ignorant. They don’t reason, they submit; they are incapable of self-doubt. They reason that “if you’re right, you’re right,” and the door to their mind slams shut. In the TV interviews with the supporters of the candidate, they lack the intelligence to explain why they have chosen a candidate that they have.

Politicians are a bit like mosquitoes – they live on others’ blood. All politicians are creatures ruled by self-interest. The French aphorist Bruyere has written this marvelous passage: A politician is “a man who knows the ways of the Court (and) is master of his gestures, his eyes and his face; he is deep, impenetrable; he pretends not to notice injuries done him, he smiles to his enemies, controls his temper, disguises his passions, belies his heart, speaks and acts against his real opinions. All this elaborate procedure is merely a vice which we call deceitfulness, which is sometimes as useless to the courtier for his advancement as frankness, sincerity and virtue would have been.”

That is a perfect description of Hillary.

"A State of confused Agony ..." Saker

"The latest developments in Syria are not, I believe, the result of some deliberate plan of the USA to help their “moderate terrorist” allies on the ground, but they are the symptom of something even worse: the complete loss of control of the USA over the situation in Syria and, possibly, elsewhere.  Let me just re-state what just happened:" The Saker

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Worth reading.  pl         

https://southfront.org/why-the-recent-developments-in-syria-show-that-the-obama-administration-is-in-a-state-of-confused-agony/

Look out Charlotte! He's coming!

Apparently the dreaded "out of state agitators" are flocking to Charlotte, NC from all around.  Charlotte is 35% Black.  It seems that the embattled African-Americans there need reinforcements and they are on the way.  Some appear to be veterans of the BLM urban IO warfare in such places as Ferguson, MO.  The governor has moved National Guard troops into the city (890,000 inhabitants).  A curfew is being discussed.  Surrounding Mecklenburg County  has twice as many residents and many fewer Blacks.

What to do?  What to do?  Ah, I know.  The Unicorn Rider in Chief can send the Justice Department Civil Rights Division to investigate the Charlotte police and city government for evidence of a pattern of unprogressiveness.  Then they can seek a consent decree from these dastards.  Eventually the city may surrender and sign on the dotted line and the federal government will then run Charlotte.   One city or town at a time works folks, one city at a time.  HC will continue the program. 

And up at the UN, the fantasy life of the BHO Borgists is being played out.  Kerry has declaimed that an investigation of the convoy event is unnecessary because we already know who the culprits are.  He then continued by exhorting the Russians to do the right thing and he clearly meant that they should gracefully accept the inevitable triumph of the jihadi unicorns favored by the US/Britain/France/Turkey/Saudi Arabi/Qatar and all that crew.  The striking thing about this attitude is the spectacle of so many over-educated people indulging themselves in a group fantasy in which the Russians/Hizbullah(both kinds)/Iranians/Syrians/Palestinians etc. are suddenly going to understand that they have no choice but accept the will of the Borg.  pl

Another Warning

I was never very tolerant and am less so now.  Some of you both Left and Right think you can crowd the limits of my toleration of incivility.  You are wrong.  In particular Tyler, herb and Pacifica Advocate are at the top of my list for expulsion or suspension.  pl

Russia asks for formal UN investigation of convoy attack.

 

"“I am confident that such coincidences require serious analysis and an investigation.”

On September 19, a humanitarian convoy consisting of 31 trucks was attacked while heading to Aleppo. According to the Red Cross, 20 civilians and one aid worker died as a result. Initial reports by the organization claimed the convoy had been targeted by an airstrike.

On Tuesday, the UN backtracked on its earlier claims that the convoy was hit by military planes.

"We are not in a position to determine whether these were in fact airstrikes. We are in a position to say that the convoy was attacked," UN humanitarian spokesman Jens Laerke said.

Speaking on the delivery of humanitarian aid to Syria, Lavrov said that the Russia and US-backed plan included the creation of a demilitarized zone around the Castello Road near Aleppo. The minister added that while the Syrian government forces have started their withdrawal, the militants have not followed suit."  AMN

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Pilgrims!  I don't know what you see in this photo of the convoy attack site but I do not see evidence of an air attack unless the air weapon was something very precise like an armed UAV.

There is no blast damage on the roadway itself.  There are no pieces of the exploded or unexploded ordnance itself.  The overhead power lines are uncut.  There does not seem to be damage to nearby structures.

What I see is a burned truck.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/lavrov-russia-presented-evidence-aid-convoy-attack-now-wants-impartial-investigation/

“US Special Forces sabotage White House policy gone disastrously wrong with covert ops in Syria” - TTG

By JACK MURPHY 09.14.2016

“Nobody believes in it. You’re like, ‘Fuck this,’” a former Green Beret says of America’s covert and clandestine programs to train and arm Syrian militias. “Everyone on the ground knows they are jihadis. No one on the ground believes in this mission or this effort, and they know they are just training the next generation of jihadis, so they are sabotaging it by saying, ‘Fuck it, who cares?’”

“I don’t want to be responsible for Nusra guys saying they were trained by Americans,” the Green Beret added. A second Special Forces soldier commented that one Syrian militia they had trained recently crossed the border from Jordan on what had been pitched as a large-scale shaping operation that would change the course of the war. Watching the battle on a monitor while a drone flew overhead, “We literally watched them, with 30 guys in their force, run away from three or four ISIS guys.”  (sofrep.com)

**************************

One of the major points of this article  is that the CIA doesn’t give a rat’s ass about the Islamic State in Syria or Iraq. By the end of 2014 there were only twenty CIA targeting officers and analysts were dedicated to IS. By early 2016, it was not much better. Instead, the CIA neurotically focused on removing Assad from power by any means possible. This laser focus was established by Brennan. I surmise this focus is shared by most in the Obama Administration

In spite of this focus, the CIA’s efforts in Syria is plagued by bureaucratic infighting. The CIA has three elements jockeying for power. The Syria Task Force is similar to the Iraqi Task Force and Iranian Operations Group that preceded it. It is Brennan’s baby. Damascus X is the Syrian CIA station now operating in Amman. And then there is the CTC/SI (Counterterrorist Center/Syria-Iraq), which is tragically focused on the Assad government rather than the terrorists. I have seen this kind of food fight for resources and prestige in the CIA and even in the DIA during the fat money days of the GWOT. I’m sure this cat fight is even more intense in today’s leaner fiscal environment.

As many of you know, the CIA conducts a lot, perhaps most, of their operations through liaison with host nation services. While I’m comfortable with working with the Jordanian services, the thought of depending on the current Turkish intelligence service scares the bejeezus out of me. For several years now,the CIA has relied on Erdogan’s boys to determine which unicorns and jihadis were worthy of getting all the TOWs and other goodies doled out by Brennan under his Title 50 authorities(intelligence/covert ops).

The 5th Special Forces Group arrived in Turkey and Jordan by 2015 to begin training anti-IS rebels under Title 10 authorities (military). Although this appears to be a reasonable mission, it was tripped up by a terrible vetting process. Jack Murphy describes the reaction of one veteran SAS operator sent to work with the 5th Group training program. “He quickly recognized the sorry state of the train, advise, and assist programs in Jordan.”  The situation in Turkey was/is much worse. Not only did the 5th Group trainers have to deal with the CIA’s ambivalence towards the anti-IS fight, but they had to work along side the Turks while they were enthusiastically supported IS and other assorted jihadis. The 5th Group soldiers were stuck training would-be terrorists while being commanded by a martinet MP officer more interested in making uniform corrections and chasing down speeders. Needless to say, morale was in the toilet. The charade in Turkey became more absurd when the Green Berets were embedded with the Kurds in Rojava.

When Obama authorized the direct support to the Kurds in Syria, the CIA wanted Delta to perform the mission. Delta turned to 5th Group. The fact that the new 5th Group Commander was a former Delta Commander was probably a major factor in that decision. It seems like a no-brainer to me, but politics and bureaucratic rivalries colored even this decision. Even here, with a mission that is dear to my heart, there are problems. The Kurds have their own combat training program. They resent the efforts of the U.S. to impose a Special Forces training program on them. However they dearly appreciate the weapons and air support. I noted something similar in 1983 Lebanon. We were providing basic combat training to many Lebanese who have been in combat for quite some time. There were times we thought it was a mutually embarrassing situation. That’s what happens when the training programs are planned in Bragg and D.C. rather than by the teams on the ground.

AS a final example of our hot, covert mess in Syria, Jack Murphy notes the plight of Delta which worked under CIA’s Title 50 in Syria. “Delta Force had also been stymied by red tape and bureaucracy as they tried to get into the fight and knock ISIS down a peg… With the CTC at war within itself, they were both trying to prevent their own people from collecting intelligence (lest they find something threatening) and stonewalling any and all Delta Force operations from going forward against ISIS.”

Jack Murphy published this article on his subscription website, SOFREP.com. It was also published on another website without his permission. I read the article on that site before I realized it was done without permission. Jack Murphy is a fellow Green Beannie. Out of courtesy to him, I will not provide a link to that site. Although I am not a joiner by nature, I may break down and subscribe to the SOFREP site. It seems to have some quality content not readily available elsewhere.

TTG 

What happened to the Red Crescent convoy?

 

There is something very strange about the supposed Syrian or Russian air attack  on a relief convoy somewhere to the west (?) of government held west Aleppo.  "Barish" is a German member of the SST community and he offers the following.  pl

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"... Several things about the convoy - run by SARC - don't add up. One, it set out from govt.-held west Halab to the countryside mere hours before. Might suggest that someone somewhere failed to communicate this to Syrian and Russian military, or that those doing the run for whatever reason ignored the possibility that the ceasefire would expire/security in the area be dicey. Two, despite various news agencies already pinning it on air-strikes, no determination how the attack was carried out was yet made. SARC's official statement, themselves affected, does not do so either, see here: http://sarc.sy/syria-attack-humanitarian-convoy-attack-humanity/ Three, there's both photos and video around, supposedly of the incident. Video-footage here is night-time: https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/777989672249266176 Photos taken in day-light can be viewed here: https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/778109172294512641 Does that line up with damage done by air-strikes? Both RU and Syrian MoDs came out and officially denied air strikes in the area. Doesn't still rule out a cock-up considering possible failure to communicate this convoy's presence at just that time, but still."  Barish

The new McCarthyism

 

"Traditional U.S. journalism and the American people are facing a crisis as the preeminent American newspaper, The New York Times, has fully lost its professional bearings, transforming itself into a neoconservative propaganda sheet eager for a New Cold War with Russia and imposing a New McCarthyism on public debate.

The crisis is particularly acute because another top national newspaper, The Washington Post, is also deeply inside the neocon camp.

The Times’ abandonment of journalistic principles has become most noticeable with its recurring tirades about Russia, as the Times offers up story after story that would have embarrassed Sen. Joe McCarthy and his 1950s Red-baiters."  Robert Parry

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What we are looking at is an evident Borgist attempt to make the US into a "Muffled Zone" in Solzhenitsyn's memorable phrase.  The goal appears to be to shut down the emerging "new press" in order to make the government's narrative the only narrative.

Will SST  be here much longer?  Who knows.  pl

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/09/07/new-york-times-and-the-new-mccarthyism/

2016 election forecast - 19 September

Between now and the November election we will make periodic checks as to SST members opinion as to the outcomes.  Please give your view as to results in the congress and for the presidency.  pl

Deir al-Zor: Was it really an accident?

(coming soon)

 "The US has expressed regret for the strikes, while Australia, which says its planes were among a number of international aircraft involved in the operation, expressed condolences to the victims' families.

Russia said Sunday that the blunder could place the delicate Syrian truce, in place for less than a week, under threat.

"We consider what happened as a natural result of the persistent refusal of the United States from the establishment of close cooperation with Russia in the fight against ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra and other affiliated terrorist groups," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement."  CNN

 

----------------

 

So, we and the Australians admit that we "done it."  The body count this morning is up to 83 and presumably will go higher.  Could it have been a real targeting error?  Yes.  People here on SST who have participated in air targeting know how easy it is to make a mistake.  But, there are some unusual things about this "error."  The SAA has been occupying these positions for six months or so.  Presumably US imagery and SIGINT analysts have been looking at them all that time and producing map overlays that show who is where in detail.  These documents would be widely available especially to air units and their targeteers.  US coalition led air has rarely struck in the Deir al-Zor area.  Why now?  Were they asked to strike?   The US does not talk to the Syrian government.  How would they have been asked?  Who would have designated the targets?  They struck in the presence of SAA troops without any ground liaison?  And what of the timing two days before the US-Russian deal was to be expanded into active cooperation?

 

And then there is the performance of Ambassador Samantha Power at the UN last night and today.  Last night she threw a hissy fit for the cameras outside the chamber in which the Security Council was meeting.  She seemed outraged to have had her Saturday Night interrupted for something as trivial as the Deir al-Zor attacks.  One can envisage her snuggled up with a good book in her apartment in the Waldorf Towers only to be be ripped away for this meeting.  And then, today she made a longer statement on Tee Vee in which she first expressed the regret of the US government for the devastation we had wrought, and then set forth her bill of particulars against the Syrian government, a statement so fulsome in its loaded up R2P/Borgist assertions (routine Chemical attacks on THE PEOPLE, etc.) that it is obvious that for her the SAA are as much the enemy as IS.  I conclude that she must think that bombing the evil SAA was a good thing.  She does not exist in a vacuum.  SECDEF Carter is a thoroughgoing  Russophobe.  General Votel, the US commander in Iraq and eastern Syria has expressed doubt about the wisdom of cooperating with the Russians.

 

IMO it is an open question as to whether these air strikes on the SAA were accidental.  pl

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/18/middleeast/syria-claims-coalition-airstrike-hit-regime-forces/

"... blowing up in its face." John Podhoretz

"Hey, Democrats, where were you? Hey liberals, where were you? The potential train wreck that is the Hillary Clinton candidacy didn’t just become evident last week when ill-chosen words about 25 million “deplorables” and a public near-collapse tanked her polls to make this a tied presidential race.

No, Democrats and liberals, the possibility of Hillary crashing and burning was there from the outset of her candidacy. And yet you stood there and let it happen.

You Democrats and liberals who did not “feel the Bern” but desperately wanted a Democratic president to succeed Barack Obama — you did nothing to prevent the potential cataclysm that is upon you now. Instead, you’ve spent more than a year chortling at Republican failings, expressing disgust at the rise of Donald Trump and convincing yourselves that your ideological tendency is on the cusp of multigenerational rule in the United States."  Podhoretz

-------------

Well,  JP is a conservative, but this is a an interesting piece.  He thinks that the HC candidacy is leading the Democrats and the Left generally into the wilderness.  We will see.  pl

 http://nypost.com/2016/09/17/the-liberal-establishments-clinton-obsession-is-blowing-up-in-its-face/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Podhoretz

SOF is a many splendored disguise.

"Up to 40 US Special Operations Forces are accompanying Turkish troops as they clear ISIS from northern Syria, two US officials told CNN Friday.

The new mission, dubbed "Operation Noble Lance," was authorized this week and is now underway, the officials added.

"US Special Operations Forces have been approved to accompany Turkish and vetted Syrian opposition forces as they continue to clear territory" from ISIS, Pentagon spokesman Marine Maj. Adrian J.T. Rankine-Galloway said in a statement Friday.

 

According to Rankine-Galloway, the US personnel will be conducting the same type of advising, assisting and training missions that the US had been providing to moderate opposition and anti-ISIS Kurdish and Arab fighters like the Syrian Democratic Forces.

 

Turkish troops, tanks and Turkish-backed Syria opposition fighters crossed the Syrian-Turkish border in August, seizing the town of Jarabulus from ISIS and pushing south and west in an effort to clear the terror group from its border. The effort was backed by US and coalition airstrikes but not by American ground forces.

 

Rankine-Galloway called the area that Turkey was working to secure "strategically important" to ISIS.

A US official had told CNN last month that Special Operations Forces had initially intended to accompany the original Turkish offensive but that the US was still working on approving the proposal when Turkish units pushed across the border."  CNN

 

-------------------

 

 The Democrats both in the present administration and in Fort Brooklyn as preently commanded by "Mid-Town" Robby Mook have decided that the key to achieving indifference and acquiescence in the American people to adventurism in Syria is to call everything on the ground "special operations forces."  This is a meaningless term that could denote; Ranger infantry,  Green Berets (USSF), JSOC commandos, USAF Forward Air Controller parties, artillery batteries "advising" the combatants and any other "cats and dogs" that you want to include in the term and description.

 

This, essentially, is  deception.  pl

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/16/politics/new-us-mission-syria/

Today is Friday 16 September 2016

 

(John Mason)

It increasingly looks to me that the Russians believed before the Kerry/Lavrov latest "ceasefire" was announced that this effort on the part of the US was simply another ploy to gain time and breathing space for the unicorns and non IS jihadis so beloved by the Borg. If that is what the Russians believed they appear to have been correct.  Rebel units are re-deploying under cover of the ceasefire.  The rebel commands are resisting the delivery of relief supplies to the people under their rule in East Aleppo.  Why?  They prefer to retain the IO/propaganda meme involved in the image of starving civilians in their part of the city.   The overall situation favors the Russians and the Syrian government.  The transformation of Russo/Turkish relations is a major gain for the Bear especially in economic issues involving pipe lines and other infra-structure projects. 

And then there is the over-arching problem of chauvinist Russophobia in the Borg, and now in the post Martin Dempsey world of Ash Carter's Department of Defense.  I have asked many well connected people to tell me what the roots of this hostility may be.  The usual answer is that the Russians threaten the US and our NATO allies.  When pressed for specifics the only substantive thing produced is the Russian annexation of the Crimea.  There is  a lot of talk about threats.  What threats there are other than the possession by Russia of a world killing nuclear capability, a capability surpassed by ours seem unknowable.  At root the Borgist problem with Russia seems to me to be a threat to the self-image of the American Borg (the foreign policy establishment both left and right).  This self-image is born of our fantasy political construct of the Exceptional City on the Hill.  How amusing that is!  It is a fantasy of those ignorant of actual history.  The City on the Hill thing largely rests on the story of colonial New England.  The Chesapeake colonies?  Well, the less said about those mere commercial adventurers the better.  (That was irony)  Well, pilgrims, my 9th great grand dad, Major John Mason commanded the colonial force of Englishmen and friendly Indians in the Pequot War in 1633 or thereabouts.  His men both European and Native Americans killed or enslaved something like a thousand Pequot Indians and very nearly exterminated the Pequots as a people.  Was this the Exceptional City on the Hill at work?  And then there was King Philip's War, etc., ad nauseam.  But, nevertheless most Americans have an ingrained belief in our superiority as a "people" and as the exemplar of the destiny of mankind.  that being the case Americans and the Borg particularly, believe that we should be the world's hegemon.  Countries who resist our hegemony must be evil.  France has sinned in that way in the past and now there is  ... Russia.  Grrr!.  pl

 

Colin Powell's E-mails

When I was in the government in one capacity or another I had various interactions with Powell.  He was always very decent to me, and often refused to let the various generals, admirals and other potentates in the room silence me when my opinions contradicted theirs.  Others did that as well, but we are discussing Powell and his mail.

 Powell's infamous performance at the UN justifying war with Iraq was a turning point for me with regard to Powell.  He and his pal Wilkerson ignored professional intelligence analysts at State/INR and went out to Langley where the snake oil salesmen "convinced" them that the Iraqi government had all sorts of wunderwaffen.  That resulted in the scene with the little flask held aloft with George Tenet sitting smugly behind.  Slam dunk!

Nevertheless, his e-mails are interesting.  Who collected them from the "ether?"  That seems unclear.  Clinton asserts it was the Russians.  The commercial e-mail systems are easy to penetrate and to mine for data.  It could literally be anyone, anywhere in the world.

Some points from his e-mail traffic:

1.  “If Donald were to somehow win,” Powell wrote in a June 23 email to Rice, “by the end of the first week in office he'd be saying 'What the hell did I get myself into?’”

“I think his attention span may be waning because national campaigning is a lot harder than just showing up at rallies,” Rice said of Trump earlier in that conversation.

2.  "I would rather not have to vote for her, although she is a friend I respect," Powell wrote. "A 70-year person with a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational, with a husband still d---ing bimbos at home (according to the NYP)."

3.  “One day when we both have had too many drinks we can discuss why [President George W. Bush] tolerated him and why Dick [Cheney], a successful SecDef, was so committed to Don,” Powell wrote on Dec. 16. “I must say I gagged as [President George H.W. Bush] praised him as the ‘best’ at the statuary hall unveiling.”

4.   Powell called Wolfowitz, the deputy secretary of defense who spearheaded the Iraq invasion, “a f--king liar” after reading an interview in which Wolfowitz blamed Powell’s State Department for what many experts allege were the United States’ two largest post-invasion blunders: the disbanding of the Iraqi army and the decision to expel members of Saddam Hussein’s Baathist Party from the civilian government.

“Bremer worked for him,” Powell wrote to Lawrence Wilkerson, his former chief of staff, on Aug. 28, after Wilkerson flagged the interview for him. He was referring to Paul Bremer, who oversaw the post-invasion transitional government in Iraq. “It wasn't State, it was the President and the guy who reported to Paul.”

“This is the narrative in the Feith and Rummy books,” Powell said, referring to memoirs by Rumsfeld and Bush-era Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith. “No one has really fallen for it.”

5.   " ... in an email to Rice, Powell wrote that he would “never forget the lunch in your office when Don abdicated the position.” It’s not clear to what he was referring, but Powell added that Rumsfeld “should have been fired that afternoone [sic].”  Rumsfeld “got mad when I tried to pull his you know what out of the fire by sending [National Security Council Iraq specialist Robert] Blackwill out there,” Rice wrote, recalling the meeting. “And when you and I started to talk to [Bremer] directly.”  “Yep,” Powell responded, “remember his tantrum vividly.”

-------------

Good solid stuff!  Either some small group of SIGINT collectors has scooped up a lot of material and is metering it out as planned or many, many groups or individuals are doing the same thing.   IMO there is still a great deal of SIGINT derived material "out there" which will appear before the election.  A problem for the holders of the material is placement in the media because so many media outlets will suppress the material for political and corporate interest reasons.

This article doesn't have the "She has screwed up everything she has touched from hubris" item.  Someone find it please if it exists. 

Ah! Here it is courtesy of "Kooshy"

"Everything HRC touches she kind of screws up with hubris", Powell wrote in an email to private equity investor Jeffrey Leeds. Decrying "friggin record rules", Powell wrote that he "saw email more like a telephone than a cable machine". "On HD tv she doesn't look good", Powell wrote. "She is working herself to death", he said."  pl

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/colin-powell-emails-clinton-trump-rumsfeld-228158

http://www.crcconnection.com/2016/09/15/colin-powell-wrote-in-an-email-that-bill-clinton-was-d.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

 

Open Thread - 14 September 2016

pl

"Deplorable Lives Matter" - sign seen in Iowa

 

"We are going to need a bigger basket."  This is attributed to one of Trump's sons.  It is really quite clever.  It has been theorized (here among other places) that HC laid down her challenge to Trump's people deliberately as a means to the end of solidifying her followers in a struggle to rid the world of the undesirables out there in flyoverland.  What would be the equivalent of "flyoverland" in the UK or France?  Others believe that in her weakened state as a pneumonia sufferer she simply told the truth that she felt.  Well, pilgrim souls, IMO if this was a deliberate gambit, it was a dumb one.

The Deplorables (both the re-educable and the irredeemables) are unhappy at this dismissal of the notion of their equality in the polity called the US.  The HC declaration of their moral and cultural inferiority has sunk in and will sink in more in light of the general approbation given to HC's statement by such people as Dana Milbank and the MJ crowd who assert that she was factually correct.

The independents now question her attitude toward them and any others who do not share her utopian vision.  pl

"US-Backed ‘Moderates’ Reject Nationwide Ceasefire, Officially" South Front

 

"Ahrar Al-Sham has officially rejected a nationalwide ceasefire proposal pushed by the United States and Russia.

Ahrar Al-Sham is one of the largest Syrian militant groups. Despite the radical views, the group is often called the “moderate opposition” by the Western Media and is supported by the United States.

On September 12, Deputy Leader of Ahrar al-Sham ‘Abo Ammar al-Omar’ publicly rejected the ceasefire proposal in Eid msge. According to al-Omar, the problem is that the ceasefire will exclude from the agrreemennt some Syrian “opposition” groups… for example the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat Al Nusra) terrorist group and other Al Qaeda affilates in Syria."  South Front 

--------------

Well pilgrims, it just does not get much "better" than this from the point of view of satirists.  Evelyn Waugh, the author of "Black Mischief," "Scoop,"  and the more awful parts of "Sword of Honour" could not have written "better" material.

Poor Kerry (irony alert) he has labored in the vineyards of diplomacy for lo these many months (years?) in the effort to produce a ceasefire that would result in the fulfillment of the Borgist dream of an Assad Free Syria or whatever they would call the present Syria afterward. 

And now - wait for it! - drum roll! - Ahrar al Sham, the unicorns upon whom the loving (maybe) attention and largess of the US/CIA have been showered has rejected the ceasefire upon which Obama/Kerry had pinned all their hopes for victory snatched from the jaws of military travail. 

Why would they do that?  It is because they are allies and comrades of Fath al Sham (formerly the AQ branch in Syria).  Fath al Sham changed their name from the Nusra Front a few weeks back in the hope of BSing the peacemakers into making them bombing immune under a cease fire.  Well, that did not work.  The crafty Rooshians instead succeeded in having the US agree that Fath al Sham/al Nusra/AQ is still a jihadi group which will be legitimately targeted under a cease fire.  Damn these Russians!  They keep trying to win or at least not lose.

So, when our "moderates" side with the jihadis against us you can see how "moderate" they really are.

Today, CNN, MSNBC et al continue to pound Assad.  pl         

https://southfront.org/us-backed-moderates-reject-nationwide-ceasefire-officially/

Where is her husband?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS4LccgMf84

pl

The Reconnaissance-Strike Complex - TTG

South Front put out a magnificient report/video, "Electronic Ears Over Aleppo," explaining the Russian military concept of the reconnaissance-strike complex. The report focuses on the Tupolev TU-214R electronic surveillance aircraft and notes its recent deployment around Aleppo. It may have been used to stop in its tracks an offensive by Ahrar Al-Sham and Jaish Al-Nasr in south Aleppo on 9 September. The assault was met by murderous SAA artillery fire and was called off the same day. They don’t call artillery the king of battle for nothing.

The reconnaissance-strike complex is also being used effectively in the Donbas with a system far less grand than the TU-214R. South Front translated some material from a briefing or report given at the Mikhailovskaya Artillery Military Academy in Saint Petersburg about the employment of Orlan-10 UAVs with a battalion of self-propelled 2S1 Gvozdika 122mm howitzers. The Orlan-10 is nothing like our Predator drones. It’s a tactical level drone more like a radio controlled model airplane. Used in the right situation, it seems to be quite effective.

******************************

The Special Technology Center of the Mikhailovo Artillery Military Academy made public materials concerning the experimental reconnaissance-strike complex consisting of Orlan-10 UAVs and a battalion of self-propelled 2S1 Gvozdika 122mm howitzers, and the effects of its use on the Donbass.

The materials refer to events which Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Turchinov referred to, during June 2, 2016 visit to a National Guard training facility, in the following manner: “May was for us a “black month”, because during that month we suffered the heaviest losses in an entire year. We lost very many heroes, many others were wounded.”

Turchinov also issued the standard accusations, to wit: “Russian-terrorist forces are using weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements in order to accurately strike our positions. It’s not just a matter of an increased number of bombardments. These are very accurate strikes, which rely on modern target acquisition and fire correction systems. ” We should note, however, that the Orlan-2S1 combo destroyed similar “weapons prohibited by Minsk agreements,” which was also about to be used “using modern target acquisition and fire correction systems,” provided [to] Ukraine by the US.

According to the report, 4 US AN/TPQ-48 counter-battery radars were destroyed. Two additional such radars were lost in sector S during the destruction of the Debaltsevo cauldron, according to uncovered Ukrainian military staff documents.

The Orlan-2S1 reconnaissance-strike complex also suppressed 3 company positions, eliminating at least 30% of personnel and equipment located at these sites, destroyed 3 Tochka-U short-range ballistic missile launchers, at least 17 tracked and 20 wheeled vehicles, two 2A36 152mm cannon, at least 3 82mm mortars, and an artillery ammunition storage. Ukrainian forces lost at least 90 killed and 220 wounded, numbers which were confirmed by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission. (South Front)

******************************

Taking out four counter-battery radars in May. No wonder we had to sent more to Kiev in June. I wonder how long these new ones last. I remember seeing photos of the two captured AN/TPQ-48 systems after the Debaltsevo pocket was reduced in early 2015. That was a serious loss to both the Ukies and the U.S. I bet it made the targeting of these systems in May much easier.

In an oblique way, this reconnaissance-strike complex reminds me of the artillery raids we practiced in the 25th Infantry Division back in the “hollow Army” days. Not only did the Division’s 105 and 155 batteries do this, but we did them in the Infantry battalions with our 81mm mortar sections. A target was selected and we did as much planning and calculating before the mission as we could. An infantry platoon would accompany the mortar section to provide security and carry mortar rounds. We would fly in on the Slicks, set into position, make final calculations, lay the tubes and fire the equivalent of an FPF on the target. Then we would haul ass. Good times.

TTG

Armageddon on the Steppe? - TTG

WASHINGTON, Sept. 8, 2016 — Defense Secretary Ash Carter today said the United States and its allies remain committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity during his bilateral meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak at the U.N. Peacekeeping Defense Ministerial in London, Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook said in a readout of the meeting.

Carter is in London as part of a three-day trip to the U.K. and Norway. The two leaders discussed the fragile ceasefire between the Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces, Cook said. Carter emphasized that the United States, together with its allies, remains committed to the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements in support of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, the press secretary said.

As a demonstration of continued U.S. support for Ukraine, Carter and Poltorak co-signed a bilateral partner concept, a document that provides a framework for the United States and Ukraine to enhance the defense capacity of Ukraine's forces, advance critical Ukrainian defense reforms, improve resource management processes and boost defense technology cooperation, Cook said. (DoD)

*************************************

The most visible sign of this new agreement is the appointment of retired General Abazaid as special advisor to Ukraine’s defense minister. According to the Military Times, Abazaid’s mission is “to strengthen democratic civilian control of its military, take on corruption and put in place other reforms.” In other words, he is to find a way to turn the depraved, atrocity committing Nazi scumbags masquerading as the Ukrainian national guard into something more presentable to the Western public. Talk about putting lipstick on a pig… or a basket of deplorables. He’s not alone in this endeavor. In May, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former NATO secretary general, was put in place as a “non-staff” adviser to the Ukrainian President.

This agreement also moves the Washington-Kiev relationship from its current ad-hoc status to a formalized five year plan. More aid is already flowing to Kiev. Our Congress has allocated 335 million dollars in military aid and McCain is working on getting another 500 million for Kiev. Ten AN/TPQ-49 counter-mortar radars and four AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radars were handed over in July. Exercise equipment and other amenities are flowing to the training areas in western Ukraine for the comfort of U.S. trainers. We are in this for the long haul.

What does this look like to the Russians and the separatists governments in Donetsk and Lugansk? South Front offers a good summary of the current situation. I strongly recommend you watch the video presentation. The conclusion of this South Front report is as follows. 

*************************************

The developments in Ukraine indicate that US-backed Kiev regime is actively seeking to find a cause to escalate the situation in the region and has already prepared a significant military force for this. Amid the military and diplomatic setbacks in Syria under the pressure of Russian-Syrian-Iranian alliance, the United States, mostly the so-called “Hillary block” of military and diplomatic establishment, is now need to create a hot point in Europe in order to draw the Russian attention from the Middle East and unite again the dispersed allies under own rule. Pursuing the political goals of its foreign sponsors, Kiev will continue to provoke the militia forces in the Donbass region and if this fails to elicit a full-scale military response, will probably attempt further terror attacks on Russian soil. (South Front)

*************************************

The “Hillary block.” That should give us pause. Both Nuland and Pyatt (now replaced by one Marie L. Yovanovitch) worked for HRC and were instrumental in creating the crapfest in Kiev. Their influence and capacity for creating further mayhem under a Clinton Administration will only be enhanced. 

But wait. Won’t the level-headed Putin just take all these provocations for the sake of world peace? I’m convinced he will, but only to a point. You may be able to poke a bear with a stick and get away with it. But you keep at it and you’ll be lucky to only lose your arm. I’m also convinced that the ethnic Russians in the DPR and LPR are the cubs of Mother Russia. And we all know what happens when you mess around a mother bear’s cubs.

What do the cubs have to say about this? The deputy commander of the DPR operational command, Eduard Basurin, stated that a change in the present government in Kiev and the creation of a confederation in accordance with the Minsk II Agreement is necessary for peace in the region. The DPR has no intention of backing down. Nor does the LPR. 

*************************************

Just before the announcement of the [1 September] ceasefire, LPR head Igor Plotnitsky also stated that establishing a ceasefire in Donbass can only be guaranteed by a change of government in Ukraine. “No pressure, whether from the West, East, North, or South, is capable of forcing Kiev to permanently cease firing…Only a complete dismantling of the current regime in Kiev and a deep program for de-Nazifying Ukraine, as in Germany in 1945, can establish a lasting peace in Donbass. The sooner the West realizes this, the less time and money this will take,” Plotnitsky said. (Fort Russ)

*************************************

We can only surmise exactly where Putin draws the line in this matter. I’d rather not be in the position where I find out exactly where Putin draws that line. I prefer it to remain one of life’s mysteries. I will leave you with these words from Alexey Chesnakov. He is not currently a member of the Russian government, but he recently held fairly high level positions in Putin’s Administration. I would consider him part of the Moscow in-crowd. How widely these views are shared, I don’t know. I’d prefer that also remains one of life’s mysteries. 

*************************************

If the Ukrainian authorities, instead of fulfilling the Minsk agreement, continue their aggressive rhetoric against Russia, and carry out repression and discrimination of the Russian population, the Russian authorities will be forced to dismember the former Soviet republic.

This was said at a press conference in Moscow, said political analyst Alexei Chesnakov, leader of the Center for Political Studies.

"If Europe will not put in effort to pressure on Kiev, this will mean the potential resumption of hostilities. For Russia, our fundamental concern is the implementation of the agreements that have been signed in Minsk on 12 February, 2015. This will ensure that the Donbass republic will have autonomous status. ", he stated. "As an expert, I can see what is happening in Ukraine itself. If Ukraine continues to increase aggressive rhetoric in relation to the Russian Federation, to take Russia as an enemy, if the Ukrainian government will make laws that toughen its stance towards Russians, then of course for Russia it is most probable there will be no other choice than to demand in fact any, by any means, the disintegration of Ukraine and its transformation beyond a federal state, into a union of states, or several independent states.” (Fort Russ)

*************************************

Sweet dreams, all.

TTG

Hillary's latest gift to Trump

 

"“You know,” Clinton said at the LGBT event, “to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables.”

“Right?” Clinton said as the crowd laughed and applauded.

“The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic -- you name it,” Clinton continued. “And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people -- now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric.”

The Democratic nominee then sought to draw a distinction between the two halves of the “basket.”

“Now, some of those folks -- they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America. But the other basket,” she said, “are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they're just desperate for change.”

These Trump supporters, Clinton said, “don't buy everything he says,” but “hold out some hope that their lives will be different” with him as president. “They won't wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they're in a dead end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well.”"  Politico

----------------

Well, "that will leave a mark."

This current American witticism refers to some god awful hard fall in sports or anything else.  Politicians have obviously not come to understand that cameras are everywhere with their unblinking eyes recording, transmitting, immortalizing. 

In this instance HC was on her home ground, in Manhattan, hanging out with her fellow moneyed utopians, relaxed, maybe  a glass of wine or two had been drunk and her real beliefs about the imperfections of non-utopian Americans came to the surface.  Half of his present polling "scores" would be something like 60-70 million Americans?

As I wrote in my post "The Essential Hilly" (linked below) she has been a utopian for a very long time.  She said in her valedictory speech at Wellesley College that it was "human reconstruction" that she wants.  IMO she still wants that and the money, lots of money. 

So, when she describes "half of Trump's supporters" as "deplorables" she means that if she could, she would change them so that they would be to her taste.  This pretty much defines the "big grandma" attitude.

Yes, this will leave a mark. 

"A pox on both their houses."  I want to vote for Bill Weld.  pl

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-basket-deplorables-227988

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/08/gordon-p-and-althea-p-lang-26.html

The Commander in Chief Forum

We watched it last night.

This morning I was out with Harper having a giant diner breakfast at Bob and Edith's on 23rd St. in Crystal City.  So this is now my first chance to put something up about the exalted brooding last night.

I am going to let you all write first as to your opinions before I give mine.

BTW the Gary Johnson flame-out on MJ this AM was memorable.  pl

-----------------

Having given people a couple days to comment:

1. I thought Lauer was quite even handed and is now paying the price levied by the band of leftist harpies gathered around HC. You know their names.
2. The audience veterans contained some interesting people; among them former captain Sue Fulton a career LGBTQ activist who left the army to pursue that line of work as soon as possible after graduating from USMA in 1980. Her free education with student pay as well cost the US taxpayer at least $250,000.  She is now a member of the Board of Visitors (regents) there and seems to me to be a likely candidate for something like Secretary of the Army in an HC government. IMO people like big Sue and HC know nothing of war fighting and care little for the actual combat abilities of the armed forces.  They see the armed forces as social engineering platforms and jobs programs for women and minorities. The use of the armed forces for purposes of political symbolism and IR signalling is about as far as they can really imagine the need to actually fight someone.  Michelle Flournoy will fit nicely into that set up as SECDEF.  BTW Fulton and Jack Jacobs led the viewers to believe that undocumented immigrants can enlist in the US armed forces. I think that is not the case with a couple of exceptions.  So far as I know people registered under DACA (dreamers) or people who are legally in the US but not citizens can enlist and become citizens through their service.  An example of the latter would be that a minor brought into the US by legal immigrant parents but never naturalized can enlist. I know of no other present exceptions. Tyler will sort me out on this. Another interesting veteran was the woman who had been a corporal in USMC in some ground aviation capacity. She was described as having PTSD issues but had never been overseas. What gave her PTSD?  Was it the general strain of military life in the states? She raised the issue of military suicides but did not bother to tell us how many of those are old veterans like me or people (like her) who never deployed to a combat area. Don't you think you would have wanted to know that?
3. A navy veteran flight officer asked Clinton a question about the security of classified information. She responded that her e-mail traffic was not "marked" as classified and that she had a separate system for sending and receiving classified traffic. With regard to the first point, it is clear from many accounts that her staff scanned classified documents into file and then edited them to remove the classified markings she said should have been there. They then sent her the edited documents as unclassified e-mail.  there is an existing e-mail message in which she tells them to do that.  They seem to have done this for years. They missed a few markings from time to time and that is why (C) appears as a portion marker on some paragraphs in a few documents. With regard to her second point, it is well established by the FBI director's statements that although the State Department had separate systems to be used for transmitting classified material she did not use it, nor did Powell and C.  Rice.
   
4. The issue arose between Lauer and Trump over what would be done by Trump concerning a PLAN to destroy IS.  Having been intensively trained in doing strategic planning and then having been the JCS designated Planner (a term of art in the JCS) for intelligence matters concerning the Middle East and South Asia on all contingency and other operational plans, I will attempt to school you about how planning works at the national level in the US.  First step - the president/CinC gives planning guidance to the JCS asking them to write a plan, in this case a campaign plan.  In this guidance he tells them what he wants to accomplish, what limits there are on the actions they may want to design and similar broad based guidance.  The Joint Staff (JCS) then writes a detailed plan which is forwarded through SECDEF to the CinC.  He reviews it and tells the JCS what modifications he requires and then approves it when these are done.  The Combatant Commands then write implementing plans based on the national plan.  Before you ask, the CIA plays no role in this process, nor does the State Department unless either or both of these agencies are asked their opinion.  We are talking about voluminous documents with many annexes, appendices, etc.  These concern logistics, communications and the like.  My point is that when Trump says he would ask "the generals" (military planners) to write a plan and that he then would consider it, THAT IS THE NORMAL WAY THINGS ARE DONE!!!
5. Russia is not the Soviet Union.  The Soviet Union no longer exists.  Instead Russia exists.  Russia is from the American POV a middle sized power with a lot of nuclear weapons, some excellent new military equipment products, a weak economy and a desire to be thought of as "one of the big guys."  Vladimir Putin although he once was a Communist Party member is no longer that.  In fact he treats the remnants of the CPUSSR as adversaries within Russia.  A great many Americans seem to think that Russia is just the USSR in disguise.  That is not the case and Trump seems to understand that.  HC probably does as well but the charge that Trump is a Russian tool is just too politically sweet to pass up.  In the last couple of days I have heard TV news idiots refer to Putin as a "communist leader."  This was Cuomo on CNN.  and have also heard Axelrod refer to Russia as the "Soviet Union" on MSNBC.  These were Freudian slips I suppose but you get the point.
   
6. Oh, yes, "taking the oil."  Asinine.  He does not seem to have any idea of the geography of Iraq.  i suppose that he would want to take over the southern oil fields because of the proximity to sea ports.  IMO all Iraqis would unite to fight you forever over this.  pl

Open Thread - 7 September 2016

  pl

Rebel/US/Turkish failure at Aleppo is absolute.

From the day when the jaws of the Kurdish YPG stronghold at Sheikh Maqsood on the south and the Syrian Army Tiger Forces coming down from the north closed on the Castello Road at the north of the East Aleppo Pocket the lines of circumvalation have been complete and uninterrupted at Aleppo.

Some have have thought that the jihadi/unicorn effort at the SW of Aleppo city had broken the siege, but it did not.  Many do not understand that for a route/road/path to be effective as an interruption of a siege it must be useful as a means of transportation for men/supplies/weapons.  The penetration of the R+6 lines at SW Aleppo City was never anything like that.  The breach was always heavily covered by fire and therefore never useful except for small groups like patrols.  By "fire" I mean tank guns, artillery, recoilless rifles, mortars, machine guns and anything else that can shoot at the gap day and night.  So far as I know, no supplies went into East Aleppo through the breach.  Now, as is shown in the map above, the breach is completely closed and the lines of circumvallation made even stronger.  IMO from a military POV rebel East Aleppo is doomed and the Rebel/US/Turkish attempt to relieve the besieged has utterly failed.   The attempt to lift the siege of east Aleppo was IMO a maximum effort with assets that have largely been lost and which will be hard, if not impossible, to replace any time soon.  the current rebel effort in north Hama Province is a kind of consolation prize for the rebels that will soon be eliminated as a threat. 

John Kerry threatened "new measures" after 1 September while at the same time luring the Russians into accepting a "humanitarian" ceasefire.   This temporary cessation of hostilities was IMO clearly a ruse de guerre which enabled the pro-rebel sponsoring powers to reinforce massively a rebel force designed to permanently break the government's siege of East Aleppo.  It was expected that victory at Aleppo would be provided by Erdogan's enabling actions, but that effort failed and now Obama/Kerry are faced with a need to confront reality in Syria.

IMO Turkey has made a bargain with Russia and Iran in which support for all the rebels (both jihadi and FSA unicorns) who seek the destruction of the Syrian government will largely cease while the Turks are free to destroy Kurdish ambitions east of Aleppo City.  The progress of the Russo-Turkish relationship is easily seen in Erdogan's surly nastiness as displayed toward Amtrak Joe Biden in Ankara and toward Obama in China. 

With regard to IS, the US/Russian agreement will enable a campaign of extermination against them in eastern Syria and northern Iraq.  The Turks will participate in that because Erdogan has come to see them as rivals in Islamism and a threat.

IMO, as a result of these basic changes in circumstances the Obamanites are in search of a face-saving compromise with the Russians over an end to the war in Syria.  IMO this is reflected in the the soothing, friendly sounds from both Russia and the United States over the possibility of a ceasefire.  Obama does not want to leave the mess in Syria as a stain on his legacy.  Since belligerence has failed, he now looks for a prestige restoring alternative.

Can a thinly veiled defeat be disguised as a wonderfully skilled diplomatic success?  Yes.  The public outcome will promise things like; a new constitution, eventual exile for Bashar Assad, UN supervision of interim elections, etc., etc., ad nauseam.

The underlying truth will be that Syria will remain a multi-confessional state with Bashar Assad as president for a long time.  If HC becomes president she will have to face the prospect of a new, and bigger war if she wishes to reverse the situation.

R+6 is going to win.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_(military)

Trying to hustle the bear ...

 

Obama was on the tube today from China.  Among his various statements was a description of his and Kerry's efforts to get Russia and the Syrian government to agree to a permanent cease fire that would enable the unicorn/jihadi allies of the US in Syria to refit and re-supply without having the Russian Aerospace Forces bombing the bejayzus out of them while they try to do so.  This was tried once before and the ploy gave the jihadi/unicorns some "slack," enough that they were able to bring in reinforcements through Turkey to enable the rebel resurgence at SW Aleppo.  Sooo, it worked once.  Why not try it again?  the Rooshians don't seem keen.  I wonder why?  Maybe this time they can be persuaded to just give up once and for all.  OTOH, perhaps desperation founded in the rebels present degenerating situation is leading to a genuine Obama willingness to compromise on an outcome.  I will think about that and write again. 

This continuing effort on the part of the Obama/Kerry/NSC/State branch of the Borg is evidence of the persistence of the belief among such people that diplomatic BS unsupported by reality is as weighty as hard fighting armored troops or air power.  Remarkable!  I do not include the broadcast MSM in the list of Borgists and hangers-on because they have no real thoughts.  They are simply meme-sucking propagandists.

I see in the Post today that Jimmy the Clap is leading a search for evidence that Russia is fixing to run the US influence machine and our elections.  Ho Hum.  Dana Priest is in charge of this at the Post.  She hasn't exposed anything lately.  Maybe this will work and you never know ... Pulitzer maybe?  Do you think maybe Clapper's office put her on to this?  Unlike Flynn I have been careful to have nothing to do with Russia and its media but I have looked at some Russian "art" online and I do like good Boeuf Stroganov, so I guess I am at risk.  pl         

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/obama-putin-seek-to-salvage-syria-talks-227729

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-still-trying-for-a-syria-ceasefire-deal-with-russia/2016/09/05/c56d710a-72ec-11e6-9781-49e591781754_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-more-top-stories_no-name%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/intelligence-community-investigating-covert-russian-influence-operations-in-the-united-states/2016/09/04/aec27fa0-7156-11e6-8533-6b0b0ded0253_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_russiaelections-6am-1%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

The Trumpster

 

"Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said he remains convinced Clinton is ahead, somewhere in the range seen among the polling aggregators.

“There has been a closing that’s completely natural,” Sabato said. “Every four years, you have two national party conventions that produce a bounce of varying sizes. Clinton got a substantial bounce this year that lasted for a full month. It’s usually gone around Labor Day, and by then we’ll be where we should be, which is right around four to five points” for Clinton.

In a separate question in the Reuters/Ipsos poll that included alternative-party candidates, Clinton and Trump were tied at 39 percent. Seven percent supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and two percent supported Jill Stein of the Green Party."  Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1182PT

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Well, pilgrims...   Larry Sabato is the same fellah I watched on the TeeVee as he reported from a Republican Party convention in Richmond that George Allen, the tobacco chewing, spittoon using faux bubba who had just been nominated for governor of Vajinnyah would never be elected.  Never!  Well, fellow pilgrims, he was elected governor and then he was elected to the US Senate and would have been re-elected if he had possessed enough mother wit to abstain from calling a reporter a monkey because he was "a person of color."  Sooo ... I am unimpressed with the Sage of Charlottesville's opinion.

Actually, I think that HC's many faults as a candidate are steadily diminishing her chance of being president and commander in chief, as she correctly states the natures of the job.  I would now give her a 65% chance of winning.

Accordingly, this is a moment in which to consider the pluses and minuses of a notional Donald Trump in the White House:

Pluses.

IMO he is a risk averse entrepreneurial deal maker and closer.   He is loud mouthed but I would judge him to be timid.  I knew many such in my decade long business purgatory.   If you want to see his clones, watch "Shark Tank."  These monstrously wealthy people are all risk averse.  They are not in any way interested in backing concept companies, prototypes, and even functioning businesses unless they have thriving sales and low costs.  Trump is like that and would, IMO, avoid war, the ultimate risk.

He identifies with the United States as a country rather than identifying with a larger utopian world wide "market" under US domination.  This may have to do with his personal history in having emerged from recent immigrant beginnings.  From my POV people with a recent immigrant past tend to be like that.

IMO he would successfully re-negotiate the various trade deals that have cost the US dearly in jobs and manufacturing.

He would also IMO re-negotiate international defense agreements that have in their present form outlived their usefulness.

IMO once you get beneath the public rhetoric Trump's immigration policy would be much like Obama's.

Minuses.

He does not listen well and is really not looking for unsolicited  advice or disturbing information.

He is incurious and knows little of the world outside his narrow experience of deal making and project construction.

He knows little of the nature of government and the US constitutional limits on the power of the presidency.  IMO he would have to make someone like Pence de facto manager of the Executive Branch of the federal government because he could not make the machine run.

He does not seem to understand that in business terms there are no quantifiable profit centers in government, only cost centers.  Taxes and fiat money are not profit centers.  They are part of the costs inflicted by government.

His business experience does not include successful day to day management of a large and continuously functioning organization.  It is hard to imagine him managing General Electric for example.  I doubt that he has the persistence and self discipline to do that.

pl

HARPER: THE FAT LADY HAS NOT YET BEGUN TO SING

August was a very bad month for Hillary Clinton, although she is still the odds-on favorite to win the Presidential elections in November, but by a shrinking margin.  If September proves to be as full of bad news and blunders as August, the elections can very well go into the final countdown month as "too close to call."   People close to Hillary Clinton are worried, and their fears are multiple.  Hillary Clinton has dodged the media, relying almost exclusively on the MSM (Mainstream Media) hatred of Donald Trump to make her the clear-cut lesser evil.  

But in the last week, even the MSM has been forced to back off on the running diatribes against The Donald.  The release of more incriminating Hillary Clinton emails that were somehow either lost or considered to be "too personal" to release to the public and to the dogged lawyers from Judicial Watch was too big to bury, even for the slavish Clinton media loyalists.  The release of the FBI's working documents "explaining" their recommendation to the Justice Department not to prosecute the former Secretary of State did not help in the least.

I heard a National Public Radio interview on Friday with Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass, and he defied the MSM mandate by refusing to trash the GOP nominee.  Instead, he offered a balanced assessment of the major foreign policy differences between Trump and Clinton, and he had to admit, on balance, that Trump was more likely to negotiate with Russia and China, and less likely to look abroad for "dragons to slay."  In other words, Hillary is more in line with neoconservative and liberal R2P interventionist ideologies than Trump.

It is still clearly an uphill battle for the Republican nominee to win in November, but the momentum is building for just that.  Anyone forecasting a replay of 1964, when Lyndon Johnson swept the Electoral College nationwide in his race against Senator Barry Goldwater, is in for a big let down.

"The 12 juiciest bits from the FBI's Clinton report" Nick Gass

 "On at least two occasions when Hillary Clinton changed electronic devices as secretary of state, the outgoing mobile devices met a violent end on the other side of a hammer or got broken in half.

At other moments, two of Clinton’s top aides recalled that the retiring devices’ whereabouts would often be a mystery.

And elsewhere in the FBI's report of its investigation and its interview with Clinton that was released publicly Friday, Clinton demonstrated a willingness to defer to others on matters of classified material, claiming on multiple occasions that she could neither recall receiving training or, in one particular instance, responding that she did not know that “(C)” markings in an email chain denoted confidential material.

From the drones to hammers to Colin Powell, here are 12 of the most remarkable sections from the FBI’s notes related to its investigation and from its July 2 interview with Clinton at its Washington headquarters."  Nick Gass

---------------------

In light of this information it seems odd that Comey did not recommend indictment on either the  Government Records Act or on a charge of mishandling classified information.  pl

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/best-of-clinton-fbi-report-227692

******

"A laptop containing a copy, or “archive,” of the emails on Hillary Clinton’s private server was apparently lost—in the postal mail—according to an FBI report released Friday. Along with it, a thumb drive that also contained an archive of Clinton’s emails has been lost and is not in the FBI’s possession."  Daily Beast

--------

The State Department is not a notably efficient or well administered part of the government.  It tends to employ people who think they are "entitled"  and above the rules, but the behavior of Clinton's personal team reeks of the '60s and 70s.  It makes me think of a group of teenagers (of various ages) playing the role of responsible government officials.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/09/02/hillary-clinton-s-team-lost-a-laptop-full-of-her-emails-in-the-actual-mail.html

-----------

When I was a major I was for a few years in charge of security indoctrination and training for US military personnel  who had access to seriously secret material as well as the inevitable investigation of violations at 5th US Army Corps headquarters at Frankfurt am Main and then at Allied Land Forces South East Europe at Izmir, Turkey.  This was a NATO command with a large US presence in the headquarters.  Then, later in life I was "indoctrinated" (trained and briefed) many times when it was decided that I should receive access to various categories and compartments of secret information.  So, I know a bit about the way the US governments in its various parts safeguards secret information. 

In basic terms a senior recipient is trained individually and privately by a Special Security Officer whose full time job is to make sure that people who receive such information understand fully the law and regulations with regard to handling such information.  Following the training the recipient signs agreements with the government to follow the rules and accept the law.  The Secretary of State would have a VAST  access to a wide and deep number of "compartments" of information each containing some particular program or type of information of great sensitivity.  for Clinton to claim as she did to the FBI that she was never trained to handle classified information and did not know the rules is simply absurd.  pl

Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War? - Re-published 2 September 2016

(In light of; the decline in the economy of SA, the apparently successful Yemeni guided missile attack on Taif, SA (700 Km from the Yemen border), and the presence of Yemeni forces in the Asir Province of SA it seems appropriate to re-publish this post.  It was originally posted in April, 2015)

"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.

While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.

"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said."  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410

-------------------

IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen.  This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY.  SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations.  The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive.   On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located).  The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions.  In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents.  Egypt is dragging its feet.  The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US.  pl

***********

"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.

Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-air-war-struggles-to-make-gains-as-yemen-fragments/2015/04/09/1a045766-ddf6-11e4-b6d7-b9bc8acf16f7_story.html

-----------------

IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.

What could be more tempting?  pl 

Turkey and Russia, a new reality

I have been puzzling over the emerging Turko/Russian relationship and in the end have decided that Erdogan and Putin have reached an agreement in which Turkey has a green light from Russia to destroy Kurdish attempts to build an autonomous region in the northeastern wing of Syria so long as Turkey stops supporting FSA/jihadi efforts to bring down the present Syrian government.

I suspect that the Turks will try to cheat on this arrangement through covert support to the rebels west and south of Aleppo but they will have a difficult time doing so under the watchful gaze of the Russian aerospace forces and Russian intelligence.

IMO the Turks will seek to manage their relationship with NATO as a hedge against Russian and Iranian potentials as future threats.  The NATO and larger US incomprehension of the perfidy of Erdogan's government will make such an ambiguous duplicity possible.

On the ground the meat grinder attrition battle at SW Aleppo City is going well for R+6.  Russian airpower is killing off a great many jihadis, men who must be gone to make the Russian goal of a negotiated peace in which Assad's government remains in place a reality.

The jihadi attack into northern Hama is a problem but one that will prove temporary and yet another opportunity for attritional warfare against the rebels.  Unfortunately many civilians will suffer while the effort to re-take lost ground is underway.

It will be interesting to see how large the Russian ground presence at Aleppo City will become.

pl

https://southfront.org/moscow-calls-on-ankara-to-coordinate-military-operations-in-syria-with-damascus/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkeys-new-relationship-russia-assad/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-highly-concerned-turkeys-military-intervention-northern-syria/

"Elections By the Numbers" By Larry Johnson

How are people getting their news? A fair question. Let me lay some hard numbers on you:

Total USA Population as of 2016: 324 million

How many people are watching national news on ABC, CBS and NBC?

(Data from 2014):

Network news viewers are declining in unprecedented rates, from an average of 48 million nightly network news viewers in 1985 to 24.5 million in 2013, according to Pew Research analysis of Nielsen Media Research data.

Young people aged 18-29 are the least likely to watch network news regularly (only 11 percent did so in 2012), and 49 percent of people in this age group say they never watch the news.

How Many People Watch FOX NEWS, MSNBC and CNN on Average?

Overall, Fox News averaged 2 million total viewers and 347,000 in the demo during primetime, winning both categories. MSNBC averaged 1.13 million total viewers, while CNN trailed with 844,000 total viewers.

How Many People Listen to Rush Limbaugh? 13.25 million

How about newspapers and news magazines? Tough to get good numbers on this but we do know that the number of newspapers has declined significantly. Even worse news for magazines like Time, Newsweek and US News and World Report. The biggest tell is to count the number of reporters who have lost their jobs and are working in other fields. It has been a bloodbath on that front.

There has been an explosion on the digital front but that is truly chaotic and is far more fragmented. The fragmentation aspect is the key. 25 years ago there was a core of news publications that provided cultural unity of sorts and helped create a public consensus. That’s no longer the case. The rapid spread of social media has created the equivalent of electronic lynchings. There is no consensus and their is no control. I suppose this is both good and bad.

My broader point is that the model for judging and predicting Presidential elections has changed significantly. And it is very apparent in this year’s contest, as the Wall Street Journal recently noted:

Of the two candidate, Mr. Trump has the largest following on social media — with 10.3 million Twitter followers and 9.9 million Facebook likes, compared to Mrs. Clinton’s 7.78 million followers and 4.8 likes.

Mr. Trump also routinely is mentioned more on social media, though that isn’t always a good thing.

“His supporters absolutely love him and his opponents absolutely dislike him,” said Kellan Terry, political analyst at Brandwatch, a social media data company.

Mr. Trump’s account shows his personality more so than more so than Mrs. Clinton’s shows hers, as he tweets, or dictates to someone else, a majority of the tweets. On Tuesday, a few minutes before former President Bill Clinton took the stage at the Democratic National Convention, Mr. Trump tweeted, “No matter what Bill Clinton says and no matter how well he says it, the phony media will exclaim it to be incredible. Highly overrated!”

We are dealing with some unknowns here and Trump appears to have a better handle on that unknown than does Hillary.

When you reflect on how much information is delivered by the much maligned “Lame” Stream Media you should be shocked at its demise. It is not the behemoth it was in the 70s and thru the mid-80s. In 1985 roughly 25% of all Americans watched the evening news on CBS, ABC and NBC.

In 2016 only 8% of all Americans get their evening news from CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN and FOX. That helps explain the ignorance of the American public. Think of this fact–if you are watching a traditional news cast on TV you are a dinosaur.

The Russians and Sultan Tayyip?

 

It is not clear to me what, if anything, the Russians and Sultan Tayyip have agreed on.  The battle east of Aleppo City out on the green plains of the fertile crescent seems a muddle.  I don't see evidence of Russian participation, for or against the Turkish invasion of north Syria.

The offended party in the muddle, other than the Kurds themselves, seems to the US.  Joe Biden was treated like a dog by Erdogan, and rose to the occasion by licking his master's hand and attempting to order what he evidently thought were other (Kurdish) dogs back to their kennel east of the Euphrates.  It seems that the public example from Havana and Riyadh of how to deal with the Obamanites was absorbed at the renovated Sublime Porte.   And now Obama plans to meet with Erdogan privately?  He plans to do what, talk him down out of the tree?  Obama is a city boy.  He will find that this quarry has the measure of him. 

The Russians are a different matter.  They threw Erdogan a bone in lifting Russian tourism restrictions on people who want to go to Turkey.  If they try to pressure Russia by not honoring the Montreux Convention on passage of the straits, they risk war with their northern neighbor.  If they send their own forces into NW Syria they risk war with the Russian expeditionary force fighting as part of R+6.  If they keep sending their surrogates into Idlib Province to be chopped up by R+6 they weaken their hand generally in the Syria struggle.

OTOH, if they seem to cooperate with Russia, the potential gains could be great even if their promises are false. 

The sausage making machine at the SW corner of Aleppo City grinds on.  If I were in command there I would want to continue that for a while until I estimated that exhaustion of means and will had set in on the unicorn/jihadi side.  At that point I would go over to the offensive and pursue, pursue, pursue ... 

At the same time, the unicorn/jihadi position seems to be collapsing around Damascus.  Interesting.  pl         

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21689871-under-recep-tayip-erdogan-and-his-ak-party-turkey-has-become-richer-and-more-confident

http://www.agsiw.org/gulf-islamists-praise-erdogan-victory-prophesy-revival-of-the-ummah

Of Quarterbacks and Colonial Marines - TTG

No refuge could save the hireling and slave

From the terror of flight or the gloom of the grave,

And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave

O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

These are the last four lines of the third verse of our national anthem. The same anthem that Colin Kaepernick will no longer stand for. He says he’s protesting the treatment of blacks in America. I have no idea if he is aware of these lines or their meaning. I only became aware of this through an article appearing in “The Intercept” yesterday. The fact that run away slaves joined the British to fight against their former American owners clearly chapped Francis Scott Key’s ass. The irritation from that chapped ass made its way into what became our national anthem.

Today I found an interesting article about this chapter in our history written by an Army chaplain. Naturally, as a chaplain, he turned it into a sermon… and a far too simplistic one at that. Nevertheless, the article is still interesting and informative.

**********************************

On May 30, 1814, the Corps of Colonial Marines, a British force consisting of freed slaves, made their first amphibious landing of the War in 1812. Assaulting an artillery battery along Virginia’s eastern shore through a hail of enemy fire, the Colonial Marines performed better than expected.

“Though one of them was shot and died instantly in the front of the others,” British Rear Adm. George Cockburn wrote. “It did not daunt or check the others in the least but on the contrary animated them to seek revenge.”

In the end, they helped capture the battery and pursued their enemy into the woods before being called back to their landing craft and sailing to their base on Tangier Island.

I love to read history and I love to root for the Americans even when I am reading about a historical figure from another nation. However, in the case of the Corps of Colonial Marines I find myself not rooting for the Americans, but for their invading enemy, the British. This is because of two things that set the Colonial Marines apart in history.

The first, the Corps of Colonial Marines were made up of freed African American men who escaped slavery, then fought against their former masters alongside the Royal Marines. The second reason, they fought so well that by June 1814, Cockburn came to prefer the Colonial Marines to his own Royal Marines, finding them stronger and less likely to desert. The Colonial Marines also provided invaluable intelligence, guiding the British through the backwoods and waters with more intimate knowledge than their former masters. Yet, what Cockburn appreciated the most about the Colonial Marines was the incredible fear they inspired in the Americans.

Although they were of African descent and formerly enslaved, the British gave the Colonial Marines the same training, uniforms, pay, and pensions as the Royal Marines. A very interesting part of the story is the Colonial Marines not only exposed the hypocrisies of American liberty, but the British provided proof, when treated equally, these men could perform equally or better than their Caucasian counterparts.

“Do to others as you would like them to do to you,” the Bible recorded these famous words of Jesus, hundreds of years earlier.

The American slave owners neglected to follow this simple teaching, which drove the enslaved men to join the British. On the other hand, the British, who did follow this teaching, were blessed with powerful allies who helped them fight their way to Washington. The moral of this story is not only will you lose friends by mistreating them, but also when you treat people the way that you would like to be treated; you may gain friends who will stand by your side.

Army Chaplain (CPT) ROB HOSKINS, 
JTF-GTMO Chaplain

********************************

I have no doubt Kaepernick is sincere about his actions and his reasons for those actions. I am glad the NFL and his coach have stood by his right to take those actions. He must also stand by the consequences of those actions. But I also fully understand the reactions of many who are burning his jersey and now consider him a spoiled, ungrateful son of a bitch. I don’t follow football, but I’m happy that Alex Ovechkin, Russian to his core, respectfully stands during the playing of “The Star-Spangled Banner” at a Caps game in Verizon Center. I am pleased and proud that I am now authorized to render a hand salute during the playing of “The Star-Spangled Banner” at that same Caps game at Verizon Center.

What I do take vigorous exception to is the notion that I must cling to some all white version of Western civilization in a desperate attempt to save my white tribe from cultural oblivion. I’m proud of the many glorious social, cultural, military, scientific and technological achievements of Western civilization. They are magnificent. But I am not blind to its mistakes and shortcomings. There is no tribe out there with a monopoly on virtue, creativity, cruelty or stupidity.

On a more personal note, I resent the notion that my tribe cannot include all those black and Hispanic (mostly Mexican) soldiers I served with in the 35th Infantry. My rifle platoon was one third each black, Hispanic and white. The mortar section in my weapons platoon was almost exclusively Mexican and black. Surprisingly, tensions and fights were always between companies and battalions, not races. Yes, we were all members of our own respective ethnic tribes, but we were all willing to fight and die for our common tribe. I loved them as much as I loved my all white Special Forces Detachment and my extrordinarily multicultural SMU team.

To anyone who thinks I should fall in behind the banner of white nationalism or follow the hopping green hitler frog or whatever to save Western civilization, I offer the phrase taught to me by my first platoon sergeant, SSG Livingston, a black man, “Kiss me where it stinks, mutha fukka.”

TTG

P.S. If I was a better man, I would have found a quote from Pope Francis rather than SSG Livingstone.

Additional info about the Brits, the blacks and the War of 1812:

http://starspangledtrail.net/life-during-wartime/blacks

 

"THE NEW ANCIEN REGIME ARRIVES IN THE WHITE HOUSE" by Michael Brenner

The United States is indeed exceptional. It is in the only country that ushers in a new Presidency by displacing thousands of the highest Executive branch officials. ‘Change’ you believe in because it is dictated by law and rooted tradition. It is one of the age’s secular mysteries how institutional integrity and coherent programs survive this upheaval. Foreigners in particular fret over how they are going to handle fresh personalities and new ideas. After all, all this motion could jeopardize their own plans and commitments. Anxiety is abated somewhat when they look back at other transitions to find that continuity eclipses innovation by a wide margin. There is more change of style than of substance. That holds for both persons and policies. 

Placed in historical perspective, it is striking that shifts by Washington, and hence adjustments required of other powers tend to be marginal. Think of the Cold War. Premises and purposes varied ever so slightly between Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan. Events more than leaders were the primary cause of significant alterations in its modalities. Stalin’s death, the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis (above all), Vietnam, the 1973 complex of Middle East crises, the fall of the Shah, Afghanistan and then – finally and conclusively – the arrival in the Kremlin of Mikhail Gorbachev.

The post-Cold War era has witnessed similar continuity. Six successive administrations headed by four different Presidents have dedicated America to accomplishing the same ends. They have been: promote the extension of a globalized world economy grounded on neo-liberal principles are far as possible; foster democratic political systems headed by leaders sympathetic to Washington’s philosophy and leadership; isolate and bring down any government that actively resists this campaign; and maintain the United States’ dominant position as rule-setter in international organizations.

"Will Turkey's military turn East or West?" by Metin Gurcan

As the number of dismissals from Turkey's military ranks grows after the failed coup last month, we can try to get a clearer picture of who and what will be left when the purge ends. 

Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik said Aug. 18 that a total of 3,725 ranking officers from the army, navy and air force commands, the gendarmerie and coast guard have been discharged from the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). The castoffs were strongly suspected of being affiliated with the Gulen movement, or of neglecting their duty at the time of the coup.

Most affected by these summary dismissals were the commanding elites of generals and admirals. Of 325 generals in army, navy and air force, 149 of them (45.8%) were discharged. Among them were two four-star generals, nine lieutenant generals, 30 major generals and vice admirals, and 126 brigadier generals and rear admirals.

A list of expelled generals shows most were officers who gave priority to Atlantic ties and held strong pro-NATO stances. As Turkey has been an important member of the Western security bloc and a strong member of the NATO army, there is no doubt that these dismissals will have major effects on TSK's strategic identity and organizational culture.

Among the discharged TSK generals and colonels were some very important names. There are strong suspicions that two leaders of the coup attempt were Maj. Gen. Mehmet Disli, who was chief of the strategic transformation office at the chief of staff headquarters, and Brig. Gen. Mehmet Partigoc. Also among the expelled were Lt. Gen. Salih Ulusoy, the chief of plans and principles (J5); Maj. Gen. Nevzat Tasdeler, the commander of Staff College; Maj. Gen. Salih Sevil, posted as Turkey’s representative at NATO; and Maj. Gen. Serhat Habiboglu, responsible for force development at the headquarters. All of them held key posts in the TSK transformation process.

Chief of General Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar, since his assignment in August 2015, has been dealing with about 170 TSK transformation projects that seek to ensure an integrated TSK and to reduce its size while increasing its effectiveness. Akar must be enduring some tough days because of these expulsions and the political and public pressures he is under.

The coup attempt has agonizingly politicized the TSK’s institutional transformation. It has become almost impossible to comment on the TSK without taking an ideological position. Treating the subject from an overridingly ideological angle makes it impossible to make an objective, apolitical and worthwhile technical analysis.

The questions we now face are simple. How can such a politicized TSK cope with fundamental change? Will the TSK revert to its previous status quo or become something else?

 

To answer these questions, we have to classify TSK generals in relation to institutional transformation:

Parasites — These are the generals who believe that because of their past service they already paid their dues and it is now time to take it easy and let the system take care of them. For this indolent, lazy officer type, transformation means uncertainty, therefore more risk-taking and more work. They don’t like it. They would prefer to follow the proven path of their predecessors.

Pragmatists — They believe in give and take with the TSK but put their own careers first. Pragmatists closely follow all changes and trends in the institution and seek the most advantageous. They are the most vulnerable to politicization. They choose between change and the status quo by assessing the risks for themselves by keeping track of their superiors' views. The majority of pragmatists prefer to maintain the status quo by avoiding risks.

Reformists — Those who are unhappy with the current TSK situation and who want to transform it. Transformation proponents resent the status quo. They incessantly criticize the TSK's prevailing culture, organizational structure and work methods. They see the TSK as lagging behind modern armies. There are actually two subcategories of reformist officers in the TSK.

Original reformists, whose dream is to return the TSK to its roots in the early republic: active secularism, statism and nationalism. For these officers, the TSK has deviated from this ideal and the deviation must be corrected as soon as possible. As some would say nowadays, they seek to restore the factory settings.

Progressive reformists, who approach issues not so much based on values, but advocate that the TSK should follow societal and civilian-military relations in Turkey and the global arena and act accordingly.

It is also possible to classify TSK generals according to their political choice of right or left and their reading of global trends as nationalist and globalists:

Conservatives (Right-Nationalists) — In general, they don’t speak foreign languages, haven’t had training or duty in foreign countries, and don’t try to understand changes in the global scene. They are generally pro-status quo and reactive. You will find many pragmatists and some parasites in this category.

Neo-Nationalists (Left-Nationalists) — These who think of pre-independence times as dark ages also have poor foreign language abilities and little, if any, service abroad. They question every development outside Turkey with suspicion, and their reactive-nationalist attitudes generally override their leftist ideology.

Atlanticists (Right-Globalists) — These generals speak foreign languages, had good educations and have served abroad. Their goal is to achieve the professionalism level of NATO. For this category, NATO and its value system and the structure of the US military and its work methods are ideal. They see the TSK as an important element of the Western security system led by the United States. They believe that for Turkey to reinforce its standing in the international arena, it has to find its place among modern Western armies.

Euroasianists (Left-Globalists) — Just like Atlanticists, they speak foreign languages, had proper educations and served abroad, but they are not as aligned in world affairs and are anti-American. They think Turkey must be more independent and turn toward the East, which in their opinion is the irreversible current trend. They also oppose NATO.

From the TSK expulsions list we see most were Atlanticists and conservative officers. We also now detect that those who pretended to be Atlanticists in key units working on institutional transformation were actually Gulenists.

At the moment, the TSK is caught in the middle while crossing the stream of organizational transformation. Will it cross to the other side and continue with the transformation or go back and restore the status quo ante?

TSK Atlanticists have lost considerable power because of Gulenist influences and mass expulsions. Will President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who now has more say in military affairs, become pro-transformation and opt for Euroasianist and neonationalist models that advocate a return to origins, to being more independent and Euroasianist externally, or will he focus on pragmatists and parasites to structure a new power balance in the TSK under strict civilian control? In other words, will the civilian-political authority call on Euroasianist reformists to lead the TSK’s transformation to defend the country against external threats? Or will the idea be to institute a power balance among the pragmatists, parasites and reformists in the TSK?

To learn the answers to these questions, we have to know whether Akar, the current chief, will remain in his post. If he departs, it would be a serious blow to Atlanticists. We seem to be heading in that direction. On the other hand, Erdogan appointed retired Brig. Gen. Adnan Tanriverdi of the Sadat A.S. private military company as his chief adviser on defense-security affairs. Tanriverdi is a key name in conservative traditions, and the appointment could well be an effort to balance the increasing power of Euroasianists in the TSK.

Metin Gurcan is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Turkey Pulse. He served in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Iraq as a Turkish military adviser between 2002-2008. Resigned from the military, he is now  an Istanbul-based independent security analyst.

 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/turkey-what-is-next-for-military-east-west-both.html

--------------

It seems to me that the die is cast in Turkey and that the secularists who held turkey for Kemalism have little chance of a return to the power they once had.  NATO needs to adapt to a new reality in which Turkey is more of an adversary than an ally.

The actual attitude of the Russians to this is unclear to me as yet.  pl

US Politics and policy and Syria

US politics.   I am more convinced than ever that HC will be president.  IMO the NY Times estimate of an 80% chance of that happening is "on the money" unless there is a much larger hidden pro-Trump, pro-Republican vote than anyone in the media believes.  I think there is such a vote but doubt that it will be big enough to carry the day for him.  The consequences of her election will be fell indeed.  IMO she will follow a reckless path toward the ideal future she desires.   I doubt that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives and their possession of many state governments will be obstacles to her desires.  The use of Executive Orders is likely to be frequent.  The police powers of the federal government will be to be heavily used.

US foreign policy.   IMO she is going to be frustrated in her desire to make all the world's children (populations and governments alike) behave as she thinks they should.  she understands very little of the nuts and bolts of military affairs and imagines that symbolic uses of military forces will result in compliance with her desired result.  This will be reflected in things like declarations of "safe zones" in hostile territory without regard to the cost in blood and treasure.

Turkey, Russia and the US.  So far, Turkey appears to be a "top"  in this three sided game of international affairs.  the Turks are not subtle. The sainted occupant of the caliphal throne in Ankara succeeded in bullying the EU into giving him six billion Golden Greckels (euros for you Germans), and now has brought Obama/Biden/Kerry  to heel in the matter of our wayward support of Syrian Kurds.  "All the world wondered."  I will not comment further on the tactical situation east of Aleppo City.  TTG does a great job on that.  But....  It does surely seem to be the case that the US is now Erdogan's bitch.

 Syria tactical.  The recent negotiated surrender of rebel forces near Damascus and the progress made in recapturing East Ghouta are very helpful to R+6.  About 3,000 soldiers will be freed up for movement north to the Aleppo City battle.  IMO unicorn/jihadi losses in the Aleppo battle have been severe and the reinforcements coming from the south will contribute to an even higher body count inflicted on the rebels.  The break in the R+6 siege lines around East Aleppo has not been useful as a supply route because it is covered by fire.  IMO that will continue to be the case and the starving will continue there.  I would wager that there are few live dogs or cats in the rebel occupied area.    Will Turkey attempt to intervene directly in the Aleppo battle?  I doubt it.

Syria diplomacy.  The Obamanite fantasists still seem to believe that the Russians can be talked into abandoning their Syrian allies.   pl

I'm back.

  pl

"Alt Right" by Tyler

Hillary Clinton gave a speech today attacking the “Alt Right” in between simultaneously claiming Trump was a Putin puppet and that Trump was going to start WW3 with nukes by attacking Putin.  There was an ad that featured “scary” KKK types, but this is standard fare for the modern Democratic party.  The fact of the matter is that the Clintons, the Democratic Party, and the MSM are all pretty confused about what the hell the Alt Right is.

The standard playbook move by the Progressive/Marxist Left has been to shout down any resistance as Nazi Bigots Who Want to Holocaust Six Million Jewish Black Baby Illegal Alien Bodies the minute they come into power.  Until recently, it was a rather effective tactic, as the target stopped talking about the (usually true) fact that they had hit upon and instead began sputtering about how they weren’t really a racist and they were the most unracist racist to ever not be a racist.  In other words, the lady doth protest too much.  The ever compliant media would then turn the conversation into how racist the person in question was.  Part of the reason that Trump is so effective is that he does not get off message by these accusations.

With the Alt Right, the response is to double down on the racism and refer to themselves as gay Nazi bodybuilders in addition to telling crude jokes about how many Jews one can fit into an ashtray.  This is maddening, because the one thing the Devil cannot tolerate is to be mocked.  The fact that the usual tactics are not working can help explain these conniptions by the Borg.

Further complicating matters is there is no standard for “is” the Alt Right.  I will give you my interpretation, which I believe is a good general primer to the readers of this refined site.   First, it is not “conservatism” in a traditional sense.  Conservatism was always defined by its opposition to progressivism, and therefore had very few hard principles.  Now, conservatism is more about conserving the paychecks and sinecures of National Review writers to keep on getting invited on talk shows.

The Alt Right believes that the Traditional Western State is worth preserving, the best thing, and that they do not cede moral authority to the Left.  That modernism and progress is a lie, simply a way for the usual Borgists throughout history to leverage power to benefit them.  Of course, there are arguments to how best accomplish this.  Some believe that returning to a Founder’s Republic style is better, while others believe that the setting for the republic has passed, and that aristocracy is man’s natural state. 

Obviously, there is a broad range of opinions here, but as I said before it’s that Traditional Western Civilization (mostly embodied in this modern era by Russia and Eastern Europe) is the best way for humanity to progress.  Specifically, that the pillars of Western Civ (the family, military, church, academia, and culture) are worth defending in the face of “progress”, which is secular hedonism dressed up as a way forward.

Some of you reading this are pointing and sputtering right now.  “What about the damn Hitlerfrog!” you are shouting at the monitor. Yes, yes.  There’s no greater way to spin the Left up than to attack their sacred cows, especially when the Left has made the last forty years a free for all for mockery.  Now that they’re in the crosshairs of psychofash teenagers with nothing to do but create offensive memes, they want to bring back speech codes and censorship.

Annoyed by the hypocrisy of wealthy white liberals living in gated communities telling Rust Belt Americans that illegal immigrants have as much right to America as they do, the Alt Right has a grand time pointing out that the people who hate walls live behind walls, usually in the most offensive fashion.  It is an effective blend of the dialectic and the rhetorical, made more effective by the fact that the Alt Right has the truth on its side.

Trump’s rise has let the genie out of the bottle. The modern Republican Party has two options: either it can go the way of the Whigs, consisting of old men upset over frog memes while transparently making sure of their own nest egg, or it will be subsumed by the Young Turks of the Alt Right, who are currently in the process of naming the enemy for what it is.  Time will tell where the dice fly.

"A Scytheclaw and her Boy" by Tyler

 

         “The Lady fell for another

         To the Beast she was a mother

         Dragons talk and Dragons mock

         But the Beast begins his stalk

         They stand! They fall! Then they flee!

         How many of them will he reave?

         (One...two...three...four...five..)”

        

         - Child's skipping rhyme on Scylla, origins unknown    

 

        

            There were many firsts during this trip for the teenager.  While he had been on shuttles before, this was the first actual ship he had been on.  This was the first time he had slept alone, technically speaking, in a room.  The death cultists handlers that never seemed to be more than a raised voice away were gone, replaced by League of Silence personnel in their severe black uniforms with the arrows and moon over their hearts.  They had the same wary fear they tried to mask with dispassion as the Harvester Suicide Commandos though, but without the benefit of iron masks to hide their faces behind and iron discipline from harsh training.

         That was nothing new to him though – as long as he could remember he had been raised in controlled settings by people who thought negatively of him.  First it had been contempt, and then as he grew into his strength and the terrible training worked its wonders on his body, contempt turned into fear.  After they had taken him and his dog into the room -

         Red flashed in his mind as he sat up in the cot that was provided him in the small room, his mind instantly blanking out and knocking him out of the dreamy reverie he had been.  He would not allow himself to relive that moment that had changed him.

         “You were thinking of it again, weren't you?” a woman's voice asked from the shadows, cultured and yet slightly rough.

         He nodded in the bed, sitting up and pushing down a sheet that covered a muscular torso.  Some scars were here and there, mostly on his back from beatings, and he didn't feel the pain from the tattoo along his ribs, the one that read CLAY-FOSsil-S/N 003R.  He also didn't want to tell her the truth, but he wouldn't lie to her either.  “I was,” he admitted after a moment, with a voice just starting to deepen.

         Claws clicked on the bare tile as the female rose up and came into the light, her tail flicking out behind her.  She was a beauty, as far as Scytheclaws went.  Nearly the size of a horse, her eyes shown with fierce intelligence.  Bright blue and glossy black feathers colored what scales did not in the same configuration, and on each clawed foot was the large talon that gave the utahraptors their distinctive name.  In every muscle that flexed under her scales and every cant of her head it was proclaimed that she was a predator in the truest sense of the term.

“The World Turned Upside Down” - TTG

ISTANBUL — Syrian rebels backed by Turkish troops and tanks recaptured the Islamic State’s last major stronghold on the Syrian-Turkish border on Wednesday, inflicting yet another defeat on the militants rapidly dwindling “caliphate.” By late afternoon, rebel fighters and Turkish officials said the rebels had reached the center of Jarabulus after encountering almost no resistance from Islamic State fighters, who appeared to have fled ahead of the advancing forces. Photographs posted on social media showed rebels posing in front of government buildings in the town’s central square.

The capture of Jarabulus deprives the Islamic State of a crucial foothold on the Turkish border, used for funneling foreign fighters and supplies, and is expected to help accelerate the militants’ demise elsewhere across its self-proclaimed caliphate.

The offensive was spearheaded by Turkey, which sent tanks, troops and warplanes into Syria for the first time in the country’s five-year-old war to help a force of hundreds of Syrian rebels. The operation also includes U.S. advisers, who are advising the operation from inside Turkey, while American surveillance aircraft are providing overflight intelligence and are poised to contribute U.S. airstrikes if necessary, according to a senior Obama administration official.

The presence of Turkish troops in Syria will also add a new layer of complexity to the already massively complicated war, potentially pushing Turkey closer toward conflict with U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds and perhaps the Syrian government.

The offensive against Islamic State fighters in Jarabulus, along the Euphrates River, began just hours before Biden arrived on a mission to repair the eroding U.S.-Turkey relationship, which is considered crucial to the ongoing battle against the Islamic State.

“The major goal of the trip is to make sure that our alliance remains rock-solid and that relations get back on track,” said the senior official, who was traveling with Biden. “We can’t afford any friction in our relationship right now, because we have a lot of business to do with the Turks.” (WaPo)

*******************************

So, has Turkey turned against IS? I’m not convinced. There have been no battles or casualties in the “Battle for Jarabulus.” All IS forces made an orderly redeployment to al-Bab prior to the Turkish-FSA invasion. This was all coordinated by Turkey to prevent further Kurdish advances in north Syria. I doubt Russia was surprised by this, but I have no idea of their part in this move. They only publicly expressed mild concern for these recent developments. Besides, the Russians have been busy tamping down the latest dust up between YPG and SAA forces in Hasakah.

*******************************

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is calling on Syrian Kurdish forces to move back across the Euphrates River, telling them they will lose U.S. support if they don't.

Speaking at a press conference in Ankara on Wednesday, Biden says Kurdish forces "must move back across the Euphrates River." He says "they cannot — will not — under any circumstance get American support if they do not keep that commitment."

Biden indirectly expressed support for the Turkish operation launched Wednesday to clear Islamic State militants from the town of Jarablus and deter Kurds from further expanding in northern Syria. (AP)

*******************************

Once more we have stuck it to the Kurds. No one, including the Kurds, should be surprised by Biden’s remarks. I am sure the Obama Administration is desperate to prevent Turkey turning to Russia and away from the NATO and Borg hegemony. Obama cannot risk being labeled as the one who lost Turkey.

So far, I have not seen any indication that the YPG Kurds are withdrawing east of the Euphrates. I doubt the YPG is willing to abandon many of those newly liberated Kurdish villagers to the Turks. There are reports of YPG/SDF forces reinforcing their lines north of Manbij and digging trench lines to to meet the advancing Turks. We shall see what will happen in the coming hours.

I’d almost give my left nut to see the instructions sent by the CJTF in Baghdad to those Special Forces teams fighting along side the YPG/SDF for all these months. I am reminded of my team sergeant’s admonishment many years ago, “Well goddam sir. The first thing we do when we get off the goddam DZ is to put a goddam round through that goddam radio.”

TTG

SST closed until after Labor Day.

The level of tendentious BS has gotten deep enough here for me shut the place down until after the 1st of September. pl

Borgist dreams of ... What, exactly?

 

1.  Joe Scarborough and his MJ crew are on a hyper-nationalist journey in which the Cold War image of the USSR continues to dominate their collective Borgasm.

2.  They fret and fret over a variety of issues such as the supposed Russian intention to invade Ukraine.   What proof there is for that escapes me but, no matter...  Why do they bother to ponder this possibility?  If it is going to happen, that will become manifest.  If it does not happen, well, it did not happen.  The only reason one would be interested in forecasting something like this would be if one contemplated a forestalling effort and I do not think that is a real option for the US and its Borgistic pals.  Mutual nuclear annihilation lurks in the background and the JCS knows that well.

3.  Donald  (the Closer) Trump and his minions are the object of intensive Borgist media efforts to portray them as agents of Vladimir the Hood (LeCarre reference).  It is now discovered that Berlusconi (the Letch) was also a servant of The Evil One brooding in his Kremlinesque castle (Lord of the Rings reference).  I actually think the Letch was interestingly human and nothing like a Borgista.  Can anyone doubt that this latest smear campaign is directed by the Obamanite information operations center  in the White House? 

3.  The Turks.  Ah yes, the Turks.  On the one hand they are going to attend cooperation meetings in Teheran with Russia and the Shia mullahcracy. On a second hand they are talking about improving relations with the Syrian government.  With yet a third hand they have in the last couple of days let 1,000 jihadi reinforcements pass through the Turkish Hatay Province border crossings for the evident purpose of reinforcing the jihadis at Aleppo where these creatures have lost a lot of men.  It would seem to me that the Russians and Iranians know about this since I do.  I think the Sublime Porte did things more skillfully than this but, what do I know? 

4.  Then there is the Aleppo battle itself.  This thing has become such a meat grinder for the jihadis that the R+6 must think it worth continuing for a while.  As someone on SST mentioned there has emerged a pattern in which Syrian forces advance into a rebel held area of the city and then withdraw to allow the jihadis to re-occupy it.  This is a great  convenience since the area you withdrew from is "target rich"  after the jihadis advance int it.  And then there are the hunting trips across Idlib Province being conducted by Russian and Syrian air.  This must be a real meat market.

Hilly is going to have a lot to deal with in her role as mother of us all.

pl

https://southfront.org/turkey-permits-1000-terrorists-to-cross-border-and-enter-in-syrias-idlib/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-russia-iran-idUKKCN10S0V9

We need to revive the military draft.

My dear old Dad had seen it all, done most of it and was unrepentant about any of it.  He used to tell me (among many other things) that the end of concription in the United States would be a disaster for career soldiers and for the United States.

Why?

He reasoned that having completely professional armed forces would be profoundly liberating for any elected government because the tiny segment of the electorate who would have children in the military would not be a potent political force in an election.  In other words expeditionary wars of choice would be politically painless for the politicians. 

That has proven to be the case.  Sheltered behind sentimental nonsense about "thanks for service," and ribbons tied around trees, the American people have proven themselves to be indifferent to the human suffering and costs inflicted in the Borg Wars.   Some of this suffering has been experienced by our own soldiers, but a great deal of it has been inflicted by us and our friends in the inevitable wretched business of "collateral damage."

When the draft ended I thought that was a good policy change.  I was profoundly weary of the leadership challenges presented by conscripts.  I thought  that working with fellow professionals would be a welcome change and it was, but a corollary change proved to be that professional soldiers could be sent to die without fear of an electoral backlash.

The is profoundly enabling for the Globalists, among whom Hillary Clinton is surely included.

Would Hillary Clinton want the draft back?  I think not.  Would a self-serving Congress want it back?  I think not.  Would all the mommies and daddies whose children would be drafted?  I think not.  What would Trump want?  Well, who cares? He will not be president unless something really spectacular happens.

Nevertheless, people of quality should demand a mandatory military service law and this time the law should require that the National Guard be deployed with the regular forces in any combat deployment.  pl

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Speaks - TTG

Moscow and Washington are in direct talks to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Aleppo, Syria, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. “We are in a very active phase of talks with our American counterparts both in Geneva and in Amman; we are frequently in touch with Washington,” Shoigu told TV channel Rossiya 24 on Monday.  “We are moving step by step closer to a plan – and I’m only talking about Aleppo here – that would really allow us to start fighting together to bring peace so that people can return to their homes in this troubled land.”

Russia and the US are working to resolve the situation in Syria in a very concrete and organized way, according to Shoigu, who explained that all of the suggestions are aimed at preserving the country’s territorial integrity and fighting terrorism, while the sides believe that the rest can be worked out at the negotiation table.

Shoigu said that, despite being feared in the West, Islamist militants are actually unaware of what they are fighting for. “If we look at [their] nationalities... they would hardly know five cities in Syria by heart. They don’t know the names of those cities, and they hardly wonder what they’re fighting for. It’s obvious and clear to everyone.”

State Department officials told a CBS News correspondent that there is presently nothing to announce on US-Russia cooperation in Aleppo. Direct talks on the issue are continuing in Geneva, but there is no “deadline” for any agreement on cooperation, they said. (RT)

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What is Shoigu talking about here? He has never struck me as one given to idle chit-chat or speculation. My guess is that he is not talking about the city of Aleppo. That would be a stretch. He is referring to the coming battle for al-Bab and the closing of the link between IS and the Turkish border. They are preparing for a "Meeting on the Elbe" moment which will require close air-ground coordination. It is militarily prudent to discuss such things.

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A French member of the SDF told ARA News that their forces aim to liberate as much as territory from ISIS as possible. During a press conference, the al-Bab Military Council announced that they follow the example of the SDF-led Manbij Military Council that liberated Manbij city from ISIS last Friday.

“Drawing on the experience of our neighbours in liberated Manbij and it’s countryside, it has become necessary for us to work together to liberate our people, as a step to the liberation of all of Syria, and to build a common home,” the council said. “That’s why we announced the founding of the military council of al-Bab and its countryside,” the organization said. (ARA News)

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The SDF has announced the formation of the al-Bab Military Council on Sunday. This is in line with the YPG desire to continue the offensive to al-Bab and on to Afrin. The US desire to seize Raqqa will have to wait for another day. The SDF and the new al-Bab Military Council give the US the fig leaf needed to continue supporting the Kurdish drive to unite Rojava. I also believe the Kurds and the Arabs of the SDF are not of the "Assad must go" camp. They may be ambivalent of his continued regime in Damascus, but they desire a united Syria with some hard won federated semi-autonomy. They know they live in a tough neighborhood. The US will have to look elsewhere for their new unicorn army.

TTG