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NRL grand final 2016: The Cronulla Sharks would have to get things terribly wrong to lose

Phil Gould

Let's start by getting the result out of the way. The Sharks will win.

As I have said many times during the course of this year, I honestly believe the Cronulla Sharks will finally win their first premiership since joining the competition in 1967.

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There is just a sense of timing about their finals charge this year. I've always believed there's a certain chemistry that exists within premiership-winning teams. I see these signs in the Sharks this year. The groundswell of support that has grown in the Sutherland Shire also contributes to this sense of occasion. It feels like it's their time.

In fact, I will go as far to say that the Sharks would have to get things terribly wrong in this match to lose to the Melbourne Storm. I see them winning by a convincing margin of four tries to two.

Guts and glory: Paul Gallen is chasing the kind of success that opposition skipper, Cameron Smith, has achieved with ...
Guts and glory: Paul Gallen is chasing the kind of success that opposition skipper, Cameron Smith, has achieved with impressive regularity. Photo: James Brickwood

I first tipped the Sharks in February based on a few factors.

First, they boasted the most experienced playing squad in the competition. The total of NRL games played by their top-25 players was miles ahead of any other team.

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Second, I thought this year looked like a weaker competition than previous years and Cronulla's experience and playing style would "stand over" a lot of other teams.

I think a lot of teams went backwards in season 2016 and the Sharks were always going to be one of the few teams capable of improving on past performances.

The game's leaders will consistently argue that the NRL is such an "even" competition, but that does not necessarily mean the football is getting better.

I think we have witnessed a fairly competitive finals series. However, if we are being brutally honest, this has saved us from a pretty ordinary season. In the finals series as well, the teams have dropped off pretty much according to seed. The two teams that played off for the minor premiership in round 26 are now back a month later to play off for the title. There have been no real surprises along the way.

Finally, a new set of halves in Chad Townsend and James Maloney would make a huge difference to the Sharks attacking potency. Not to mention Maloney's goalkicking abilities.

Anyway, the Sharks will be winning this grand final. This will be a problem for me because I live in the bloody Shire. With four Sharks supporters in my household (wife and three teenage kids), I now have to find somewhere else to live.

CRONULLA SHARKS

The Sharks have got a few things going for them. Most people point to their experienced, hard-nosed pack of forwards as their greatest asset. There's no doubt this is an important factor in their success. These blokes give the Sharks their character and attitude.

This is a bullish, arrogant football team. They can't be intimidated. They have absolutely no respect for rules or referees. They constantly push the boundaries, standing over their opponents and the match officials.

They will stand offside all day. Off the ball, they will push, shove, bump and hold wherever possible. They are like the old days of world championship wrestling where the villain wrestler would always bring a foreign object into the ring, such as a chair, to hit his opponent over the head, but somehow the referee was too distracted to see what the fans could see. The Sharks seem to get away with a lot. Some would call it cheating. The Sharks players use the term "gamesmanship". The truth is somewhere in between.

Personally, I like their outside backs. I think they have been somewhat underrated. Valentine Holmes, Jack Bird, Ricky Leutele and Sosaia Feki are the players I most think of when watching the Sharks. Time and time again these guys prove to be the difference between winning and losing football games. They are lethal finishers with great try-scoring ability. They only need half a chance to score points.

More importantly, though, it's their willingness and strength to come in and play like forwards in tight battles that makes a huge difference. They are all brave boys who run hard and they pick up the slack when some of the older forwards are looking for a spell.

If the halves, Townsend and Maloney, can ensure a steady flow of possession to these guys, then I have no doubt they have a class edge on the outside backs of the Storm. This is where the tries will come for the Sharks, down the sideline corridors.

MELBOURNE STORM

I didn't see this one coming. As accurate as I have been about the Sharks this season, I have been equally as wrong about the prospects of the Storm. I would have bet against this side being a grand final contender.

It's a credit to their coach, Craig Bellamy.

I am not a fan of their mechanical style of football. I also believe this team have been allowed to get away with far too much with certain defensive tactics over the years. This team also push the rules and they get away with it. However, there can be no denying that this coach knows how to win football games and he wins regularly with players who have not achieved anywhere near the levels of performance at their previous clubs. One can only stand and applaud.

The one thing we do know is that these blokes won't beat themselves. They give you nothing and you have to be at your best to beat them.

Melbourne have the best defensive record of any team in the NRL era. If the adage stands true that "defence wins big games" then the Storm will be hard to beat.

I don't like their attack. I think they will struggle to score more than two tries in this match, provided, of course, the Sharks bring their best defensive game to the big show. I don't think that will be enough to win the game. If anything, I think the Storm can be guilty of trying to be too perfect in possession of the ball. They roll through their sets of six with great control. They have their set patterns of play and they will pick out a couple of target areas in the Sharks' defensive line to exploit.

However, most of their tries come from weight of possession and field position. I'm not sure they will be able to dominate the Sharks in this manner.

MALONEY IS VITAL TO SHARKS

Maloney is the man who has to keep the Sharks on track today. By that I mean he is the one who has to ensure the Sharks play some football and don't get dragged down into a war of attrition on the advantage line between the rival forward packs.

Incredibly, Melbourne, in the 26 matches they have played this season, have only conceded seven tries in the middle third of the field. That is an extraordinary statistic. If you want to beat the Storm, you have to play them down the edges.

Maloney and Wade Graham destroyed the Cowboys on the left edge last week. No side all year, or even last year, has been capable of belting the Cowboys like the Sharks did in the preliminary final. Maloney was the key in that match. He will be the main man in this one, too.

MUNSTER NEEDS BIG GAME

This young man has been absolutely outstanding this season deputising for the great Billy Slater. When Billy was ruled out for the season with a shoulder injury, I, like many, thought that was it for the Storm in 2016.

Again, I think the "softness" of this competition has allowed a team like the Storm to seemingly overachieve.

There can be no doubting this young Munster fellow deserves immense credit for the service he has given his team. He has been phenomenal. But here's the rub: what has happened up until this big day means nothing. It's what you do in this game that counts. The Sharks will be all over Storm playmakers Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk. Munster needs to provide extras that maybe the Sharks aren't expecting.

It's a big ask for a kid on his grand final debut to be demanding ball from his two legendary playmakers, but Munster needs to know that he is vital to the Storm's winning prospects.

CRONK and SMITH: 2006 v 2016

In season 2006, leading statistics company Sportsdata created a player evaluation report that ranked players in the competition according to their contribution levels during a game and a season. Over the years, I've found this ratings system to be extremely useful when assessing the value of an individual player to a team, or even for comparisons between players in determining the true salary cap value of a particular player.

In 2006, Smith was the No.2 ranked player in the game, behind the great Andrew Johns (593 points – unbelievable), with an average game ranking of 494 contribution points a match.

Darren Lockyer ranked third best with 441 points a match. The Storm's Cooper Cronk came in fourth with a game rating of 415 points.

Here we are a decade later, and Smith ranks as the No.1 player in the game with an average match contribution of 480 points. Cronk ranks ninth with 419 points.

While Cronk may have dropped a few spots in the pecking order, he is actually producing personal-best results. He still ranks as the No.1 halfback in the game above other prominent playmakers, such as Johnathan Thurston, Ben Hunt, Anthony Milford, Shaun Johnson and Daly Cherry-Evans.

Smith and Cronk rated alongside the legends Johns and Lockyer in 2006. A decade later they are still the No.1 half and hooker combination in the NRL. This is extraordinary. Even though the game has changed since that time, both players continue to make huge contributions to their team's fortunes.

GOODBYE FOR NOW

This will be my last Sunday column for the year. The Panthers management also have very kindly allowed me to take an extended break from my commitments with the club. To be honest, I need it.

Thank you all so much for your kind feedback and support throughout the season. I hope to be back and do it all again next year. Have a great summer, everyone.

Phil Gould is the General Manager of the Penrith Panthers

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