A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Week 6 Picks

My picks this year haven't been all that good.  Neither have anyone's.  And I'm loving.every.second.of it.  The NFL has gone insane, both in good and bad ways.  Other fans have apparently not warmed up to the changes we are seeing as viewer-ship is down across the board.  It can only be speculated as to why, and I have my own ideas, some among the good and some among the bad.

The Good:

Defense rules.  The NFL owners had a brilliant plan to hamstring defense and promote scoring.  That plan has backfired to a degree.  Defenses used to be made of gazillian pound monsters up front and tiny little speeders in the back.  What separated good defenses from the bad was the interior, safeties who could devastate and middle linebackers who  could terrorize.  As the rules changed to favor bigger and slower wide outs, and hinder the heavy hitters, defensive players have adapted, as have their coaches.  Linemen are lighter and faster, pass rushers are quicker and use skills beyond bulk and power, and DBs are taller and more 'receiver like' than ever.  Interior backers are less like Randy Gradishar or Dick Butkis and more like pass defenders.  Old school football has made a return to form.  As owners and administrators change the rules to favor the future Jerry Rices (there will never be another Jerry Rice), Coaches are calling on tight ends and running backs to be receiving machines, letting the running game dictate pace and seeking ball control over flashy chunks of turf.  31 years ago, the best team in football had the best defense that ever played.  3 years ago, the best offense ever seen was defeated when it mattered by a defense geared towards those old school rules with modern tooling.  This year, the Vikings are statistically challenging the '85 Bears and Minnesota remains the only undefeated team coming into week six.   Defense matters more than ever.  How can anyone not like this?

N00bs are ruling.  The quarterback position is more important than ever, with brains trumping size or toughness.  Yes, we still have the elites we love, Big Ben, Rodgers, Brees.  But the young guys are being effective and doing it in a hurry.  2 Rookies in the same year have challenged Tom Brady's string of pass attempts without an interception.  One is still inching closer.  The one who threw a garbage interception is from an FCS school.  The quarterback spot is in flux, the kind of thing we haven't seen in 30 years.  Not since the QB draft of '83 (Elway, Kelly, Marino) have we seen this kind of game-altering production from the young guys under center.  I'm loving this, even if others aren't.

The Bad:

Herr Goodell and the control Stripetroopers.  Suspensions are really getting out of hand.  It was one thing when they were utilized to promote  the league's integrity.  Now they are being used to promote league image.  This is not the way people want football to look.  Which leads to:

The No Fun League.   Even college players are being allowed more leeway to celebrate than the NFL players are (except for spiking the ball, 'cause Gronk does that and he's a celebrity ...)  It's been noticed, A LOT, that the status of the player can dictate when a "taunting" or "excessive celebration" penalty can be called.  That's not football, it's bullshit marketing of the counter-productive kind.  "Oooh, this player looked at another player wrong and if he does it again we'll alter the game by ejecting him".  This is the grossest over-reaction to Odell Beckham trying helmet missile another player.  Short of spiking the ball into the opponent's nuts, taunting should be a non-thing.

From a player's perspective, here's what they are being told.  If you enjoy what you accomplish we will take money from you and pump it into the richest professional league in history.  Players aren't happy, and can't navigate these draconian by-laws.  I don't blame them.  Terrell Davis, who popularized the Mile High Salute to honor the fans would now be charged with a fine and penalty for bringing the fans closer to the game.  I wonder why the NFL viewer-ship is down ... not.

Color Rush:  Crass commercialism.  The only good thing to come out of this uniform travesty is the Broncos wearing the D-Pony.

Win Now:  I will deal with another time.  Until then, on with the picks.

 Thursday:

Denver (4-1) at San Diego (1-4) - Broncos

I've said before that Denver would miss Danny Travatheon more than Malik Jackson.  Atlanta made the blueprint for defeating the Broncos but San Diego doesn't have the players who can do it.

Sunday:

San Francisco (1-4) at Buffalo (3-2) - Bills

Niners cross country.  Niners go boom.  But I think they are better with Keapernick than with Gabbert.

Philadelphia (3-1) at Washington (3-2) -  Eagles

I'm going with the defense here.

Cleveland (0-5) at Tennessee (2-3) - Titans

The one game I really hope for an upset.

Baltimore (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3) - Giants

Eli will not have a great game, but one good enough.

Carolina (1-4) at New Orleans (1-3) - Saints

Newton will have to prove that he can keep his head in a game.

Jacksonville (1-3) at Chicago (1-4) - Jaguars

They are coming on.

Los Angeles (3-2) at Detroit (2-3) - Lions

I really have no preference here.  So I'm going with the home team.

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (1-4) - Steelers

It must truly suck to be Adam Gase right now.  He's got shit for a team.

Cincinnati (2-3) at New England (4-1) - Hatriots

I have no desire to say anything other than that I will drunkenly celebrate if the Bengals pull this off.

Kansas City (2-2) at Oakland (4-1) - Chiefs

The Raiders can't seem to pressure anyone right now.  And if you don't shake Alex Smith, he will systematically pick you apart.

Atlanta (4-1) at Seattle (3-1) - Seahawks

Seattle will be better at controlling the middle of the field than the Broncos were.

Dallas (4-1) at Green Bay (3-1) - Packers

I hate these 'flip a coin' picks.  Burt it is in Wisconsin.

Sunday Night:

Indianapolis (2-3) at Houston (3-2) - Texans

Even Osweiler can decimate the Colts D.

Monday Night:

New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona (2-3) - Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald for the win.

 Byes: Minnesota, Tampa Bay

Last Week's Score:  7 - 7,  50%,  Overall:  45 - 32,  58%

Week 5 Picks

I'm just curious, does anyone remember the last time that the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos were both 4 and 0, and considered THE power teams in the NFL?  You know, it was a year when the Vikings were handed something new (ownership in that case, a stadium in this one.)  The Vikings had a 'replacement' quarterback (Randall Cunningham) and the Broncos were the defending Super Bowl champs with the second best defense in the NFL, a questionably capable quarterback, and a power running attack.  The guy calling the plays and coaching the offense and quarterbacks was Gary Kubiak.  On staff was Rick Dennison.  That's right, you guessed it.  1998, when just about everybody expected the Broncos to face the Vikings in the Super Bowl, but the Vikes lost the Hallas to the Falcons, and the Broncos crushed Atlanta in SB 33.

The comparisons break down after that.  The game has changed to favor passing even more than in '98.  CJ Anderson is not Terrell Davis.  The Vikings don't have Randy Moss or Cris Carter.  Trevor Siemian, for all his talents, is not John Elway, and Paxton Lynch (an Elway clone) is not quite ripe.  Still, it's fun to imagine that this might be the year that the Vikings, 0-4 in the Show, face the Broncos 3-5 in the big game.  Back in the early '90s I had a friend, a Vikings fan, who continually told me that the Vikings could never face the Broncos in the Super Bowl lest the world come to an end because neither team at 0-4 was allowed the win.  The Broncos have now won three, but it would be nice to see the rebirth of the Purple People Eaters against the Orange Crush 2.0.  Minnesota and Denver are the teams that sit at 4-0, and I don't think either is pulling the foot off the pedal.  And just to make things really fun, Atlanta sits atop the NFC South and has the best scoring offense in the NFL.  The Falcons now go to Denver, to face the No Fly Zone.  We'll get a reboot of what happened in Super Bowl 33.

For those who track records, the Broncos are now number 2 on the list of professional sports franchises ranked by winning percentage.  They have passed the L.A. Lakers and trail only the San Antonio Spurs.  This happens in the same year that Pat Bowlen, whose team has won more games in his tenure than any other NFL team was passed over for inclusion in the NFL Hall of Fame for Jerry fricking Jones.  Consider that the Broncos have twice as many Super Bowl appearances as they do players in the HOF.  Consider that, leaving Gary Zimmerman aside having spent most of his career in Minnesota, the Broncos have as many Super Bowl wins as they have Hall of Famers.  Consider that Terrell Davis, the only eligible member of the 2000 yard club who won a championship in his 2000 yard season is still not in the HOF.  I have no idea why the Broncos get such disrespect, but here we are back in 1998.  Minnesota is undefeated at 4-0, the Broncos are undefeated at 4-0, and Atlanta intends to spoil the party.  Bring on the Falcons.  The No Fly Zone is waiting.

 

Thursday:

Arizona (1-3) at San Francisco (1-3) -  Cardinals (33-21, Cardinals)

Without Carson Palmer a weak looking team looks weaker.  But then again, the 'Niners won't have Navarro Bowman, so ...

What 'Niners defense?

Sunday:

New England (3-1) at Cleveland (0-4) - Hatriots (33-13, Hatriots)

The return of Angry Tommy.

Whatever.

Philadelphia (3-0) at Detroit (1-3) - Eagles (23-24, Lions)

I keep with the Rookie.  After all, he's got the defense to make him look good.

The most upsetting thing is Wentz's needless first interception in garbage time.

Chicago (1-3) at Indianapolis (1-3) - Colts (23-29, Colts)

Yes, I still think the Bears are worse than the Browns.

The Bears had some D against that awful Indy O-Line, but that's about all.  And Vinatieri will be the second place kicker in the HoF after Stenerud.

Tennessee (1-3) at Miami (1-3) -  Dolphins  (30-17, Titans)

If this game even gets played.  If not or a change of venue, then I call a Mulligan on the pick.

No Mulligan on this one.  Miami just looks awful.

Washington (2-2) at Baltimore (3-1) - Ravens (16-10, Taterskins)

Uncomfortable with this pick, but the Raven's D stopping the run puts all the pressure on Cousins.

There was a reason I was uncomfortable with this pick.

Houston (3-1) at Minnesota (4-0) - Vikings (13-31, Vikings)

Never bet against an incredible defense.

Last of the undefeateds.

New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh (3-1) - Steelers (13-31, Steelers)

As indicated, Revis is not himself.  Pickspatrick is, well, himself, and Geno is no better.

Not much to say.

Atlanta (3-1) at Denver (4-0) -  Broncos (23-16, Falcons)

Kubiak understudy calls the Atlanta offense.  This will be the toughest test for the No-Fly-Zone yet.  It will also be the toughest test for Matty Ice and Julio Jones.  I take the Broncos at home.

Chris Harris put it best:  the Falcons ran the Patriots offense, only with their running backs instead of their tight ends.

Cincinnati (2-2) at Dallas (3-1) - Bengals (14-28, Cowboys)

Actually the risky pick of the week.  But the Bengals are well rested ...

The way that defense played, I'm not doubting Jason Garrett ever again.  And the only real challenger to Ezekial Elliot being Offensive Rookie of the year is his teammate Dak Prescott.

Buffalo (2-2) at Los Angeles (3-1) - Rams (30-19, Bills)

Rex is riding high, but the Rams' Defense is looking more stout by the week.

The very second one has any faith in Fisher's team, that hope is dashed by consistent mediocrity.

San Diego (1-3) at Oakland (3-1) - Raiders (31-34, Raiders)

One of those games I wish both teams could lose.

With this win and the Denver loss, Oakland takes over the top of the AFC West, for now.

Sunday Night:

New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay (2-1) - Packers (16-23, Packers)

Off a bye week, Rodgers looks good.  Eli does not, and I benched him in Fantasy.

Not nearly as close as the score shows it to be.  Green Bay had this game all the way.

Monday Night:

Tampa Bay (1-3) at Carolina (1-3) -Panthers (17-14, Buccaneers)

Carolina can't be that bad, can they?

Yes, apparently they can be that bad.  I've seen the losing team have a Super Bowl hangover before, but only the 2003 Raiders rivaled this, and the Raiders didn't have Carolina's level of coaching or talent.  Cam looks like he is playing backyard football, like he doesn't care about the outcome.

Byes:  Kansas City, Jacksonville, Seattle, New Orleans

Last Week's Score:  8 - 7,  53%,   Overall:  38 - 25,  56%

 

 

Week 4 Picks

A Very Smart Man (/sarcasm) once told me that anyone can pick 67% of NFL games.  See, half of all games played are 'gimmes', games in which there is an obvious dominant victor.  If one just randomly chooses, with minimal knowledge of the sport, among the remaining half then one has a statistical probability of coming out at 50% for half and 67% overall.  Fair enough, but only if one accepts the idea of the Gimme game.  Games like Carolina at home, on a 14 game home win streak, against a team who has lost one of the greatest running backs of all time and their starting quarterback.  Instead, those obvious losers fielded a guy under center who had been with the team for less than 4 weeks.  Carolina gimme.  Another gimme was the talented Pittsburgh Steelers, arguably the league's most talented offense, going against a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach early in the season.   Steelers SMASH, you'd think.  How about the Arizona Cardinals with likely the deepest roster in the league going against a Bills team that bares the hallmark of Rex Ryan - inconsistency.  Or the Houston Texans smash mouth defense facing another rookie QB, whose only backup is a wide receiver that has to be protected in case he's called on to fill the role?  Houston has one of the only QBs to ever come back from a 14 point deficit against the Brady/Belichick Hatriots, and DeAndre Hopkins, while New England is missing it's best weapon in Gronk and it's first and second string QBs.  Totally Gimme games.

Not so much.

I don't believe in the Gimme Game.  I believe  in the three truths of football.  1)  No matter how good you look on paper, you still have to play the game.  2)  The Game ain't over til it's over, and 3)  A win is a Win, and a loss is a Loss.  If you had asked just about anybody to name 5 teams that would be undefeated after 3 games, they likely would have said Arizona, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and some mix of Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland, Cincinnati or some other outlier.  A few, a very few, (myself included) would have picked Denver, at the expense of Carolina.  Here is what we have for reality.  The undefeated teams after 3 weeks are Minnesota, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New England and Denver.  Denver, Philadelphia and New England have been operating with Quarterbacks who haven't thrown a regular season NFL pass before this year.  Wentz and Bissett are rookies, and Seimian was a 7th round draft pick from last year's practice squad, so essentially a rookie.  Bradford didn't even meet his offensive fellows until 5 days before season kickoff.  Flacco is coming off an ACL tear and had his running back cut and then resigned.  These are not the signatures of teams that win "Gimme" games.  What does establish these five teams as the undefeated is defense, unrelenting, aggressive, brutal defense.  Of the five, New England is undoubtedly the best coached.   The most talented and poised to win it all are the Denver Broncos.  That these teams are 3-0 should not be all that surprising.  Still, none of the 5 have succumbed to the notion that they should lose "Gimme" games.

In sarcastic defense of the Very Smart Man (/sarcasm) who told me that statistics leads to a 67% pick rate, he later informed me derisively that the NFL is rigged and games are pre-decided, presumably by the sports Illuminati.  This is one case where I simply cannot disregard the obvious contradiction.   Either statistical chance controls the events or the Lizard People backing Roger Goodell do.  It isn't both.  If it's the Lizard Folk, then the Gimme games would actually be Gimme games.  At least some 'insider' with forked tongue would stand out as a champion of picks.  Hmm, no such critter seems to appear.  But maybe, just maybe, that's what the Illuminati WANTS me to see ...

(Just for the record, I am currently 1 pick or more better than all of ESPN's resident experts.  I can only assume that it is because I knew the Broncos would beat both the Panthers and the Bengals.)

Still, here are my picks:

Thursday:

Miami (1-2) at Cincinnati (1-2) - Bengals (7-22, Bengals)

They bounce back in a big way.

Great win that everyone is raving about.  I must not think like everyone because I have a problem here.  It doesn't say great things about your team if you have a wide receiver at 173 yards, 1 TD, and still only win on the virtue of 5 field goals.   Cincinnati should be worried.

Sunday:

Indianapolis (1-2) at Jacksonville (0-3) in London - Colts (27-30, Jags)

Jacksonville has talent but just can't seem to put a 'TEAM' together.

A good win for the Jaguars.  It remains to be seen if they an build on it.

Tennessee (1-2) at Houston (2-1) - Texans (20-27, Texans)

Houston's defense can pull together without everyone else relying on Watt, or can they?

I'd say they can.  And Houston actually generated offense against a decent Titans defense.

Cleveland (0-3) at Washington (1-2) - Taterskins (20-31, Washington)

The Browns have been scrappy, but if they are going to win a game this year they have to take what opportunities they have.  This is one.

Cousins played well.  Again the Browns show promise, but not yet.

Seattle (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2) - Seahawks (27-17, Seahawks)

It's all on the LOB for turnovers with Wilson hobbled.

And Pickspatrick delivers.

Buffalo (1-2) at New England (3-0) - Patriots  (16-0, Bills)

It doesn't matter who plays QB for New England.  It could be Betty White.  Rex wakes in cold sweats every night fever-dreaming of being whipped by a sneering Belichick while Ryan wears assless chaps.

I take back some, only some, of the bad things I've said about Rex and Rob Ryan.  The last time the Patriots got blanked at home, Bill Clinton was President, Drew Bledsoe was a rookie, and Gronk wasn't even in kindergarten.

Carolina (1-2) at Atlanta (2-1) - Panthers  (33-48, Falcons)

On top of the NFC South and then not.  Sorry, Georgia.

Holy Sh!t!.  Ryan, 500+ yards passing; Jones, 300 yards receiving.  Who needs defense when your offense plays like that?  Oh, yeah, Carolina does.  The Panthers find themselves in some serious trouble.

Oakland (2-1) at Baltimore (3-0) - Ravens (28-27, Raiders)

Only because of home field.  I hate having to pick games this evenly matched.  Still no sightings of Kahlil Mack.

Carr over Flacco, Crabtree over Smith the Whatever.  So much for home field.

Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (0-3) - Lions (14-17, Bears)

Anyone who has the Bears above Cleveland at the bottom of their power poll is just WRONG!  Chicago is the hot mess of the league.

Ever notice how much better Chicago plays, on both sides of the ball, when Cutler isn't in the game?

Denver (3-0) at Tampa Bay (1-2) - Broncos (27-7, Broncos)

Denver has not done well in the steamy heat of Florida.  But the Buc's secondary can't stop the Seimian to Sanders connection.  Winston is impressive but so is Newton.  The Buccaneers will be out hustled and out-coached.

A complete game from Denver, even with the rookie Lynch in relief of Siemian.  Considering how many pundits picked the Bucs (I'm looking at you, Skip Bayless) I'm beginning to think that the "experts" are waiting for Denver to lose so they can say "SEE!  We told you they weren't that good."  Wait another week, smart guys.

Los Angeles (2-1) at Arizona (1-2) - Cardinals (17-13, Rams)

If they lose this game in the desert, I give up on them completely.

I think the Cardinals can officially be labeled a disaster.  And the Rams are showing, dare I say it, consistency?

New Orleans (0-3) at San Diego (1-2) - Chargers (35-34, Saints)

McCoy knows his job is uncertain, and will not let his elite quarterback disappoint.

Rivers didn't disappoint.  Neither did Brees.

Dallas (2-1) at San Francisco (1-2) - Cowboys (24-17, Cowboys)

Prescott and Elliot are the real deal.  Blaine Gabbert is not.

As I said.

Sunday Night:

Kansas City (2-1) at Pittsburgh (2-1) - Steelers (14-43, Steelers)

Le'Veon Bell is back.  And Roeslithberger rarely shits the bed twice in a row.

Somebody somewhere said that KC had a defense?

Monday Night:

New York Giants (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0) - Vikings (10-24, Vikings)

No Vereen and a Minnesota defense coming into its own.

I think it might be time to drop Eli from my fantasy team.  And I'm still on the Bradford bandwagon.

 

Byes:  Philadelphia, Green Bay

Dog!  I hate bye weeks.

Last Week:  9 - 7, 56%,  Overall:   30 - 18,  53%