Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May have more in common politically than they might wish to acknowledge. In the Prime Minister’s case the greatest problem is the 17 million-plus Brexiteers champing at the bit to pull the UK out of the EU irrespective of the consequences. For the First Minister, it’s the Tartan Army, equally determined to cut loose from England, Wales and Northern Ireland, for richer or poorer, and apart from diehard nationalists it’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t think it will be for poorer.
Whatever deal Theresa May is able to scramble together – and for the moment she seems to have as little idea as the rest of us – it is hardly likely to satisfy the Leavers determined to put up barriers, make unilateral arrangements for trade, and still grasp powerful levers around the world. These were the pups sold by Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Priti Patel, Chris Grayling and Andrea Leadsom, all of them now in the UK Cabinet, allegedly responsible for delivering this political nirvana.
No sooner did Mrs May return from her holidays, however, but she fired a shot across the bows of the Brexiteer cheerleaders. En route to China for the G20 she not only ruled out a points-based system for EU migrants but left open the possibility of them having preferential rights to live and work in the UK. No matter that she may be adopting a sensible alternative: a system based on the needs of the UK economy rather than a bureaucratic exercise, Mr Farage was immediately on the rampage, fomenting trouble, accusing the prime minister of backsliding. So, already Mrs May is in danger of driving hardline Brexiteers into the arms of UKIP. She ignores them at her peril.
On the other side of the world while Mrs May was glad-handing prime ministers and presidents, Ms Sturgeon, whose party is already the repository for the angry, alienated and disillusioned, was offering to form a coalition with like-minded UK Government ministers who want Britain to stay in the European single market. Without accepting free movement of people coming from the European Union the UK cannot stay in the free market. That’s the deal, as the Norwegians and the Swiss can confirm. So what would be the point of such a coalition?
Is it too cynical to suggest Ms Sturgeon is making this gesture knowing full that well staying in the European single market is not a realistic possibility. Is this a consummate politician preparing for the next referendum campaign on the break up of the UK. The argument could go, “Look, we tried, we didn’t want to return to the country as this juncture, but hey, we have no choice, we had no influence even when we tried to co-operate with the dreaded Tory Government. And remember, 62% of the Scottish electorate voted to remain in the EU.”
Last month Ms Sturgeon embarked on the “biggest-ever political listening exercise”. Indeed, the SNP’s powers-that-be may listen but the exercise is primarily designed to persuade the majority of Scots to vote for independence. Ms Sturgeon has already said a second
independence referendum is highly likely following the Brexit vote, and therein hangs her problem. She has raised expectations: enthusiastic nationalists want a referendum, but she knows the result is not a foregone conclusion. There is no certainty she will win. If the polls are anything to go by, and admittedly they may not be on their recent track record, a second referendum does not augur well for the SNP. Professor John Curtice, possibly the most consistently accurate pollster, believes it is “far from clear” that there’s been a post Brexit increase in support for independence. If Professor Curtice is correct Ms Sturgeon needs to increase the grievance quotient amongst the Scottish electorate.
As in 2014 the economy will feature prominently in the debate over Scotland’s future. For most people in Scotland, jobs, food, and housing remain their priorities. If anything, since 2104 the Scottish economy has become even more uncertain as oil prices have plummeted with no sign of recovering. Last month’s official Government figures would make all but the most rampant nationalist stop in their tracks: Scotland’s public spending deficit added up to nearly £15bn, as the country spent £14.8bn more than it raised in taxes in 2015/16, including a share of North Sea revenue.
Ms Sturgeon and Mrs May are between a rock and a hard place. Party management is making their lives very difficult. Ms Sturgeon does not want to trigger a referendum she is not sure she will win. Mrs May’s hands may be tied by her party.
They face difficult choices. Will they do what is the right for the electorates they serve, or will party priorities prevail. Watch this space.
