2008-07-30
Zbogom
Meanwhile the only element of the meeting that made news was the violent confrontation between skinheads and police, who this time around did not have orders to let the hooligans destroy anything they wanted. A suggestion to the winsome lads of 1389, Obraz and other groups allied with SRS: when your friends are not in power, it is a bad idea to attack the police, because there are more of them than there are of you, and they are better armed and better trained.
Today Tomislav Nikolić of SRS came out with an unintentionally revealing statement. He claims that president Boris Tadić was commanding the police and attempting to create disorder, and tried to dissociate his party from the thugs who turned out for the meeting, claiming that they were on the payroll of the police.
Let's leave the contradictions in Nikolić's statement alone -- they are obvious enough that they do not need to be pointed out. What the failure of last night's meeting shows is that without support from the regime in power SRS is simply another extremist party with severely limited support and little capacity to organise anything. They could build a small base of support when they had the ability to hand out commercial real estate on the Zemunski kej. And they could assure the validity of their licence to intimidate people when everyone was sure that the police and security services were standing behind them.
Goodbye, SRS. People are no longer afraid of you, and they no longer take you seriously.
Update: Rich Byrne on the failed meeting as "a total triumph for the new government."
Update2: Similar thoughts from Vladimir Vuletić, Zoran Stojiljković and (if you can believe it) Slobodan Antonić.
2008-07-29
Ma kemoj
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Any truth to the rumours that Karadžić is already on his way to the Hague? I have not found any confirmation yet, but it will be my pleasure to let you know.
Update: Ah, timing! The title of the story has already changed -- to "Miting završen, nema šetnje." Apparently the police and the right wing thugs need some space to be alone with one another.
Update2: No trip to the Hague tonight, the rumour was untrue.
Update3: But if I had waited a couple hours longer ....
Notes on the commerciality of evil
A quick roundup
In any case, there is not so much that is new to report. Karadžić may or may not have acquired a Croatian passport in the name of his witch-doctor colleague Petar Glumac. Glumac thinks so and so apparently do Serbian authorities, but police in Austria seem not so certain. It seems fairly clear that Karadžić vacationed in Croatia using this document, which would suggest that the folks in Serbia are closer to the truth here. Somebody -- either the real Glumac or Karadžić -- was apparently also practicing "medicine" in Italy.
Karadžić's lawyer Svetozar Vujačić seems to have adopted the only strategy available to delay the extradition of his client to the ICTY. He sent an appeal by the slowest postal means he could find. This is not going to mean much, except that the indictee may travel a couple of days later.
Meanwhile Karadžić's nephew Dragan Karadžić has come out with a declaration that he (and only he) assisted the fugitive in evading the law. This is probably an attempt to shield the people who participated in harbouring Karadžić and are still harbouring Ratko Mladić and Goran Hadžić. There is no reason to expect much to come of this one way or the other. Dragan Karadžić might or might not get a short prison term, police are not likely to prefer his public statements to the results of their investigation, and public opinion will be balanced between the people who are relieved that the criminal has been arrested and people who will understand a little illegal expression of filial piety, however misguided. Luka Karadžić should get a little bit of blame for exposing his son to danger, but in his family life as in his driving habits he has never shown any sign of concern for people less powerful and well connected than himself.
Tonight the right wing parties are organising a protest against the arrest. This is a bit of a last ditch for them: they lost both the elections and the extended horse-trading session that followed, and now want to try their hand at a little bit of street populism. Expect them to attract a small number of people who will engage in a bit of violence.
Speaking of marginal parties of the far right, it looks like Koštunica dr Vojislav has broken his silence. Lucky us.
Apologies for the lack of links in the above post. I just wanted to catch up a bit. The people who have been following the news will already have read the original articles, and for the rest a search engine ought to do the trick.
Update: Just a note on the lawyer Vujačić's slow mail trick. If the appeal does not arrive, the court is not obligated to wait for it indefinitely. The judges could make a finding that there is no appeal.
2008-07-28
2008-07-24
They say Harlan Sanders was not really a colonel
I am just posting stuff I read. I am not making it up. What makes you think I could make this up?
Update: Oops, sorry, gender confusion. Apparently Mina Minić is a dude. And here is (perhaps) a photo.
Tracing the paper trail
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Which belongs not to him, but to this person:
![](http://web.archive.org./web/20101015092422im_/http://bp0.blogger.com/_HKFGc-F24jI/SIicuD0ajWI/AAAAAAAAACw/vSUjAW50dHI/s320/pravi-Dabic.jpg)
Or that is at least one of the versions. In another version he assumed the identity of a much younger person who was killed during the siege of Sarajevo.
What is fairly certain is that he did not get the false identity on his own. The answer to the question of how he got it probably depends on when he got it. If it was early on, it could have been as early as 1993 when the younger Dragan Dabić was killed. Then chances are that the documents were provided by Karadžić's fellow criminals in Bosnia. If it was later, and the most frequent guess now seems to be that was in Belgrade from 2005 onward, it would have to have been done by criminals in Serbia. What kind of criminals in Serbia? Follow the paper trail: who issues the documents?
Your reading suggestion for the day
Blago cara Radovana
Also, in the trivia department -- Radovan's gentlewoman friend's identity is revealed.
Tradition
Scheveningen: Pa da, OK, važi
Pavlović je za B92 rekao da je razgovarao s Karadžićem i o svom obilasku Sheveningena. "Onda sam mu rekao: ‘Davide, Sheveningen je jedno super mesto, koje morate obavezno da posetite. On je pun hotela, plaža, stvarno jedno predivno mesto na Zemlji.’ On je samo slegnuo ramenima i rekao: ‘Pa, da, OK, važi’", priča Pavlović.He didn't mention the jazz festival.
Zaverenici
The way the story goes, Mladić is negotiating the terms of his own surrender, wants to avoid being tried, and passed on what he knew about his former co-conspirator to soemone, possibly the German intelligence agency BND.
It's all very interesting, though the article is short on detail and a bit rambling. According to my sources, Mladić is living under an assumed identity and working as an alternative pedicurist in Kuršumlija.
On the other hand, the more I look at the article, the more it looks like it was planted there, and not by a person skilled in feng shui.
2008-07-23
Dabogda te posetio Čavoški
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Photo: Luka Karadžić arrives with his tailor and cosmetician to visit his brother.
Man of many roles
Delovanje Dabića: dubine i dubioze
People with whom he came into contact in the "medical" world also did not suspect anything, except that the editor of Zdrav život never did believe he had a medical degree or profession (but nevertheless appreciated Karadžić's articles on meditation and the like, which do seem to have attracted a readership). A couple of people used his healing services, which seemed to involve waving his hands around people's bodies, which would appear to constitute "classical bioenergy," and the purchase of pendants. Oh, and he seems to have been inseparable from someone called Mila.
There were only a few signs of his old political affiliations and of the ideas that led him a few years earlier to become a perpetrator of genocide. Apparently he frequented a bar where traditional gusle music was played, and liked to listen, sometimes played and sang songs about himself facing a picture of himself with a larger hairdo, and praised his fellow traditional music enthusiasts for preserving folk customs. This is hardly determinative of anything, though -- the overwhelming majority of people who appreciate traditional culture are not criminals at all.
A couple mild indications can also be found in the articles on meditation he wrote for Zdrav život. Again, it is not much: in reflecting on meditation he falls into a digression on the authenticity of cultures and whether they "have not been destroyed or blocked in development." But again, there are many more essentialists out there than there are extremists. Even offering up silly ideas, he gave nobody any reason to suspect who he was.
All in all it sounds as though he succeeded in living the life of a peaceful fellow who did not stand out much in a crowd. Very likely he would have been able to continue doing that if he did not begin to seek publicity for his "treatments." Psychologist Leposava Kron explains this behaviour, which seems to have led to his capture, as representing a need for attention which was unchanged from his previous life.
2008-07-22
The David wellbeing program
The petard department
Ceci n'est pas un chapeau
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No text to link to, but I just heard an interview on the radio, Tatomir Toroman interviewed the editor of Zdrav život magazine, who published a series of articles on meditation by Dragan (sometimes David) Dabić, and who says that his lectures on meditation were outstanding. The editor had no clue who was hiding behind the assumed name.
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Here's a tad more: from Stultitia, scenes from a Dabićin' lecture and the menu for a lovely vegetarian repast.
A jogurt?
Dragan Dabić in the literature
"Dragan Babic [sic], and Srecko Dogandzic's office, I saw aThe testimony took place in June 2005. We still do not know when Karadžić began using the pseudonym.25 civilian male Albanian, aged about 20, lying on the blue carpeted floor
Page 40820
Blank page inserted to ensure pagination corresponds between the French and
English transcripts.
Page 40821
1 without his shoes on. Dragan Babic [sic] was sitting on his legs and
2 remained there when I walked in. Srecko Dogandzic had a baton in his hand
3 and he froze when he saw me, he was standing behind Dragan Babic and it
4 was obvious that he had been beating the young man's bare feet. Dragan
5 Jasovic was in a crouched position at the guy's head with his hands either
6 side of the young man's head, it was if he had let the guy's head go when
7 I entered the room. Radomir Mitic was standing by the desk and he froze
8 when I entered the room.
9 "Jasovic stood up --" Sorry. "Dragan Babic [sic] and Dragan
10 Jasovic stood up. As Babic got up --" Dabic, I beg your pardon. I'm
11 misreading it. "As Dabic got up, he practically stood on the young man's
12 genitals and went over and stood by the wall. Dragan Jasovic was wearing
13 a button down cardigan-type sweater which was open, and as he stood up, he
14 stood on the right-hand side of his sweater, which caused him to slightly
15 lose balance."
16 Now, do you remember an incident with Dragan Dabic, Srecko
17 Dogandzic, and a young man who was being beaten?
18 A. Dragan Dabic and Srecko Dogandzic worked with grand larcenies and
19 theft. That was their area of work.
20 I'm not aware of this case at all. And I never wore a pullover.
21 I always wore a jacket. I am not aware of this case at all. I wore polo
22 shirts or T-shirts in summertime.
Raša Ram Dass
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Is this the photo of Karadžić alias Dragan Dabić we have been wondering about? AFP says it is. Would you take this fellow's alternative medicine?
Alternatives to medicine
![](http://web.archive.org./web/20101015092422im_/http://bp0.blogger.com/_HKFGc-F24jI/SIXACQ3Q7LI/AAAAAAAAACI/YIpdiUuTEVA/s320/rasim-sa-slikom.gif)
Says Rasim Ljajić at his press conference, Karadžić was living in Belgrade and dressing like the jazz-folk legend Louis, and practicing "alternative medicine" at a private clinic under the assumed name Dragan Dabić. And Ljajić directly answered the folks looking for hidden meaning (I guess I am one of them) behind the timing of the arrest: "This shows that we do not choose the place or time for the arrest of suspects. There was international pressure to arrest Mladić, hardly anyone expected the arrest of Karadžić, but our operative findings led to the location and arrest of Karadžić." So there you have it.
Adil Zulfikarpašić
And the competition begins ....
2008-07-21
Ej, pa sad
Initial observations
- It was announced that he was arrested, but not where. This matters in the sense that a lot of people have claimed for a long time either that they know where he is or that someone else does. The BBC report sazs that he was arrested "by Serbian security officers," which would suggest that it happened in Serbia.
- On the same say that Karadžić was arrested, Dinko Šakić died. Pravo stiže svakom govnu.
- The Tribunal had better not mess this one up because there are not many chances left.
A couple more details, from B92: it happened in Serbia, and the Interior ministry had no part in it.
Also, we recommend the fantastic Indian place at the bottom of Muswell Hill.
2008-07-17
Documentary film workshop!
![](http://web.archive.org./web/20101015092422im_/http://bp1.blogger.com/_HKFGc-F24jI/SH9EKDcsZWI/AAAAAAAAABg/XPbJQTo3uS0/s320/Londres-u-pokretu.jpg)
2008-07-16
Ne zastareva
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So it seems that somebody has caught up with 86-year old Peter Egner, resident of a retirement home in lovely Bellevue, Washington. According to the charges, Mr Egner, who came to the United States in 1960 and received citizenship in 1966, was a member of the Nazi security police in Belgrade between 1941 and 1943 where he acted as an interpreter during interrogations of prisoners and guarded transports of prisoners (at least) between two prison camps in the city. During the first nine months of the occupation, it is charged, he was a member of a unit that killed thousands of civilians, mostly by asphyxiation.
The suspect is not commenting and his lawyer says that the charges are vague.
A little bit more: the government has filed a case to revoke the old murderer's citizenship (here is the full text). Some guy says that he is a gentleman. While his neighbours seem to think that being a Nazi has something to do with privacy.
2008-07-15
Party like it's 1987
There is at least one set of rumours out there suggesting that they need not have bothered. According to this version of the near future, SPS will be out of all coalitions and LDP will be in. Or else -- get this! -- new elections, which DSS and SRS are hankering to lose while SPS is still uncertain whether it wants to lose now or later.
2008-07-11
Deficient immunity
2008-07-07
Addition and subtraction
Technical notes from all over
It may seem that I spend a lot of time complaining here about agencies and companies that bother me (the Home Office, Defra, my local council, BT ....). This could lead to the impression that I am a grouchy old fellow, an impression that people who know me would certainly confirm.
All the same, in the interest of balance, a few of the providers of goods and services in the United Magical Kingdom who have pleased me:
- John Lewis: They deliver when they say they will, and do not charge extra for it. And when I got a defective product from them, they were there the next day to take it away and bring a new one.
- Riverford Organic: Say goodbye to depressing supermarket vegetables, order a nice box of veg from these folk instead. They come by once a week to bring it to you, and take back the box from last week to use again. The price is a little higher, but the quality is much better. And you don't have to carry anything.
You provide the prose poems
Both Smajlović and Tijanić have some good things to show for their service. Smajlović engaged the much-admired designer Mirko Ilić to reconceive the look of Politika, and it is now more legible and more stylish than it was, with especially enjoyable graphics on Sundays. Under Tijanić RTS television looks a lot less haphazard and hackneyed, more like a professional TV outlet and less like the way a tech school dropout put onto video the hallucinations of a hatful of people to whom nobody can say "that's a bad idea."
And there are things that they failed to do. Smajlović cut short the path that Politika had begun back to respectable journalism. Times have changed, but you are as likely to find tendentious headlines and selective reporting in that paper as you were in the 1990s. She also handed out patronage in the form of columnist contracts to Koštunica's political supporters. Miroslav Lazanski? There. Slobodan Antonić? Him too. Đorđe Vukadinović? What a surprise. For good measure, the management board was packed with political supporters as well. Emir Kusturica was installed as its chair. Tijanić used RTS as a vehicle for personal promotion and the political promotion of his rotating cast of friends and business associates. So as much as the heads of these institutions polished their surfaces, the stuff underneath looked very much the way it did in the old days.
Now with a new government, new board members are heading to those media outlets. Tijanić and Smajlović are predicting, probably correctly, that they will be removed from their positions. But at the same time they are defending their positions using the rhetoric of "journalistic independence." Now the independence of media is a value that lots of folks for good reason would defend. In this case the rhetoric is in the wrong hands. The people using it did not come to assume their positions as independent journalists or because of their journalistic independence, but for precisely the opposite reason. In the second place, an important point is being missed: no media outlet is independent of its own managing board, which means that the problem is structural. Form the managing body of a media outlet with people appointed by political parties, the result will always be politically controlled media. Allow politicians to name the editors of media institutions, they will be anything but independent.
There might or might not be reason to imagine that the Cvetković-Daček government will appoint a higher class of lapdogs than its predecessors. What would really be interesting would be to see editorial independence practised as a general operating principle.
2008-07-04
The Lajiad
Mrs Ethnia and the Ethniette arrived Wednesday morning at 5 AM or so, I arrived to the fetching Heathrow airport to meet them, and at that point we were supposed to go to the Animal Reception Centre to pick up our long-suffering dog Lajoš (who appears to have been left without an Ethnian pseudonym; suggestions are welcome), who would be released after they finished doing whatever it is they do to helpless animals in sealed high-security zones.
This was to be the fruit of a long procedure to avoid quarantine in the UK, which is famously hostile to incoming animals. The procedure begins a year before the doggie is to enter the country. He gets certification and boosters for all of the vaccines he has received, and in an indignity meant to emulate the surveillance to which humans are subject at all times, a computer chip is shoved into his body. A blood sample is taken, and must be sent to the only laboratory in the country from which Defra will accept results (in the US, actually, there are two laboratories but the other is apparently only for dogs in active military service). A pile of papers must be gathered and certified by a veterinarian.
And then there is the travel itself. Lajoš must travel in crate that meets precise specifications, can only go on flights from a list provided by Defra, and is to be surrendered to the cargo carrier five hours before the flight. On arrival in London, he is to be taken in his crate directly to the Animal Reception Centre, where, their literature assures us, staff are on duty 24 hours to assure the health, safety and happiness of domestic animals and the people around them.
From Heathrow Terminal 4, which can be reached by tube, one can reach the Animal Reception Centre by car. If, like most people who live in central London, one does not have a car, the procedure is the following: one drags one's luggage past the point at which there are paved walks by the side of the road, and then drags the bags up some stairs to a path that runs through an overgrown meadow and leads to a narrow pavement bestride a six-lane highway. After tooling along that pavement for about 2 km, it is possible to see the building of the Animal Reception Centre, which bears a striking resemblance to the Medical Facility for the Criminally Insane outside the University of Massachusetts hospital in Worcester. On seeing the building, it becomes clear that it is on the other side of the six-lane highway and that there are no crossings. So the only thing to do is wait for a somewhat clear moment, then dash with suitcases and child in the hope of not making an involuntary appearance in tomorrow's Daily Mirror ("Stranded pooch after Ethnia family road rage squish"). Later we discovered that it is possible to take a bus from the terminal; the bus deposits you by a parking lot next to the cargo area about a mile further down the highway, which is also on the opposite side. Here there is a crossing, which leads to an unpaved strip on the other side where pedestrians are invited to slog through the muddy grass beside a shallow primordial pool which is shaped like an imitation of a river.
Pedestrians who arrive at the entrance to the Animal Reception Centre are greeted by a sign telling them that pedestrian access is prohibited. After ignoring the sign they will reach a reasonably pleasant waiting room filled with sofas and piles upon piles of interior decorating magazines. On the walls are signed photos from celebrities whose animals have passed through those doors. Most of them I do not recognise, but there is the unctuous Richard Branson with two doggies and a signed portrait of a squat Elton John. There are also vending machines where one can buy a bag of crisps or a Yorkie bar (“not for girls!”). We are signed in and instructed that Lajoš should be delivered to us within the hour.
But soon an agent appears with a problem: apparently in some obscure part of the guidelines we have been (or somebody has been) told that our Boston veterinarian's signature must be verified by the US Department of Agriculture. Since such a thing would not occur to any reasonable person and is not visible in the instructions, it was not done, and hence the Animal Reception Centre is not able to accept Lajoš's documents. The certificate will have to be issued by one of their vets. It is now 7 AM. Since the Animal Reception Centre works 24 hours a day doing nothing but processing animals, they naturally do not have veterinarians on staff (who are all these people, then?). A veterinarian drops by to visit twice a day, once at noon and once at 7 PM. We are advised to bring our bags home, and that somebody will phone us sometime after noon to tell us that our dog is ready to be picked up. Which we do.
Around 1:00 we receive a call asking us to come back to the Animal Reception Centre with Lajoš's documents. Mrs Ethnia stays at home and the Ethniette and I head off, folder of documents in hand, to make the trek once again to distant Heathrow. It turns out that they needed to resolve some confusion as to whether the computer chip that was unceremoniously placed into Lajoš was placed on the day it was placed or on the day that its number was registered. We are able to resolve the confusion immediately. By this time, however, given the time it has taken for them to call us and the time it has taken to get back to the airport, the noon vet has left. The certificate cannot be issued until the 7 PM vet shows up. They kindly point out that our paid processing fee allows Lajoš to spend 48 hours enjoying their hospitality, and that we are perfectly free to return home and pick him up the following day, or even the day after. We are determined that our dog will not spend the night at their mercies, however tender. We tell them that we will be back at 8 PM.
This leaves us with a good six hours to fill in some way or another. The time could be spent at Heathrow, revelling in the opportunity to pay £10 for beans on toast and to find out what abominations WH Smith has decided are “bestsellers.” We quickly dismiss this idea and instead arrange to meet up with Mrs Ethnia in the nearest proper neighbourhood I can think of. Which is how we came to spend our afternoon in Hounslow.
Now, I have absolutely nothing against Hounslow, and in fact it seems like it is a perfectly fine place. There are many discount clothing and furniture stores, as well as some lovely outlets for electronic goods. There is a shop where everything costs a pound, and if we had been inspired we could have got a very good deal there on those metal balti dishes which are ideal for serving food that has to be hot at the table. There is also a quite good Lebanese restaurant, where the friendly staff served us a delicious dinner at a more than reasonable price. There is a bakery where they fill their cannolis with Nutella, an innovation that pleased the Ethniette a great deal. The only bad thing I can say about Hounslow is that the only two times I have been there in my life it was because of some mishap involving transportation that was expected to happen but did not because of bureaucracy, and that if this sort of mishap does not occur again, as I certainly hope, these will remain the only two times in my life I have been in Hounslow. It is entirely possible that this sentiment is misplaced and that it reflects poorly both on Hounslow and on me.
In any case, our brief and unanticipated sojourn into Hounslow tourism completed, it was time to return to the inviting Heathrow cargo area. At around 9 PM we finally did receive Lajoš, who was happy and seemed no worse for wear despite his long imprisonment. By 10:30 PM he was off the tube and merrily sniffing the ground by the fast food stands where people wait for buses at Finsbury Park station. At 11 PM, a mere 15 hours after landing in a crate in the UK, he was at home enjoying the smells of Muswell Hill.
Englezi: Lajoš has arrived in your country. One day he will rule you all.
2008-07-01
Pa i u Ameriku
U Evropu, 200 na sat
The Slavoj Žižek prize for highest concentration of invented terminology
A side note to NSPM: your readers, and especially the sovereignists among them, would like you to find a web host that does not bloom with a thousand pop-up adverts.
“No rights,” says she “without their duties, No claims on equals without cause.”
2008-06-28
Service
Meanwhile, my local council in Haringey publishes a monthly magazine called Haringey People. In it one can see photos of the councillors wearing large shiny medals around their necks. The magazine must certainly provide hours of pleasure to that audience -- it must be out there -- that enjoys looking at photos of corpulent middle aged men in garish jewelry. It also appears to exhaust the council's reserves of competence.
2008-06-27
A new, unstable, short-lived government
The new government is set to have 28 ministries, affirming the place of Serbia near the top of the world demographically in ministers per capita.
The good news about the government is that neither Vojislav Koštunica nor Velimir Ilić will be part of it. The bad news is that SPS will be, and once again a party with minor support will excercise inordinate power. What is uncertain is whether SPS will use the opportunity to demonstrate that it has the capacity the become a political party, and also whether DS will use the opportunity to demonstrate that it has the capacity the become a political party.
PS: Backstory? -- Here are journalists speculating in Politika that Tadić was compelled to choose Cvetković by party leaders and that his preference would have been .... Vuk Jeremić????? But how little does one have to respect (even) Tadić to imagine anyone, even him, seeing Vuk Jeremić in any position where something might depend on him?
2008-06-23
War criminals: What are they good for?
Bozza: "Response to a silly and hostile suggestion"
ZimbabPROFOR
While you were away
The plaintiffs are suing the Dutch state for the failure of its military forces, which were present in the area as members of UNPROFOR, to protect their relatives during the Srebrenica genocide in 1995. Rizo Mustafić, Ibro Nuhanović, Nasiha Nuhanović and Muhamed Nuhanović sought protection at the UN military base in Potočari, but were soon afterward delivered to the Bosnian Serb forces by the members of the Dutch military who were bound to protect them. The lawsuit seeks to establish that the military forces are guilty of gross negligence of their duty to protect civilians, and that this was a result of state policy which placed emphasis on the safety of soldiers at the expense of the obligation to protect civilians.
If you care for 198 pages of pleading, you can dowload the writ of summons (translated into English) at the plaintiff's firm's web site. It is a PDF, and since they are lawyers they have a little shrinkwrap agreement for you to click before you can get to it. Or you can listen to an interview with the lead lawyer by CBC, followed by Ramush Thakur's comments on the responsibility to protect.
Paul Vallely sets out several of the issues in the case for The Independent. Plaintiff Nuhanović and his lawyer set out their case to Reuters in an interview. Attorney Liesbeth Zegveld (bio) gives the theory of the case with admirable succinctness to the BBC. Some unexpected uncertainty came about just as hearings were about to begin when the judge who had been overseeing the case since 2005 was removed from the case without explanation.
A decision is expected in September.
Errata: See the comments for an important correction.
Holidays in the sun
2008-06-12
Of kings and, well
With one great person having left Niš, a more dubious one says he has forgiven the people he robbed, is an intellectual looking forward, and is ready to return. But we are not aware that anybody wants him back.
2008-06-11
Your intelligence agencies at work
![](http://web.archive.org./web/20101015092422im_/http://bp1.blogger.com/_HKFGc-F24jI/SFAGdDP7qVI/AAAAAAAAABQ/UxvMIOghlrk/s320/clousseau.jpg)
They are apparently leaving top secret folders on the seats of trains. While this is being done by daffy senior officials, the government is desperately trying to give itself the authority to hold people for 42 days until they can figure out whether they have done anything illegal or not. You feel ever so safe, don't you?
1 down, 3 to go
2008-06-08
Farewell, Šaban Bajramović
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Link: This recent album review by Erika Borsos captures his quality nicely. And Toma Todorović has a fine remembrance in Politika.
2008-06-05
Random observations from a visit to Belgrade
- A top graffito of the trip: The long-closed store by where the Cinema Odeon used to be, which for years has had the sign "Objekat u renoviranju" in the window. This time passing by, I noticed that somebody had crossed out "renoviranju" and written "raspadanju."
- Most tempting graffito: Somebody must have been well paid to paint "Sloboda za Caneta" on many prominent walls, because really, who cares? It took a tiny bit of effort and a good deal of laziness not to add "i Antona."
- A question for my culinarily savvy Belgrade friends: Is the restaurant in the Ruski dom any good? Will they serve me the stuff my grandmother used to make?
- Still the best thing about Belgrade (and every other city in the Balkans): Sitting in the outdoor cafes, which are everywhere.
- Smallest surprise: JAT (now called "Jat airways" or if you prefer "ejrvejz")? Still atrocious.
- Blogocentric moment: A fine evening spent drinking beer with Viktor (Belgrade 2.0) and Dejan (Anegdote), followed by pljeskavice in a wind tunnel.
- Most zaslužan građanin: Radovanović, the person behind the wines. Also, whoever is behind Greenet. Sidney Greenstreet, one supposes.
- Person and party inspiring the best and stupidest jokes: Krkobabić and PUPS.
- Biggest disappointment: Leaving at such a moment that it required missing the concert by Nick Cave.
- Greatest discovery: You'll hear about it. We have to get some grant applications together.
- Imperial moment: Across from where we live there used to be a perfectly okay bakery and a samoposluga about which the most you could say was that it was conveniently located. First the bakery was taken over by a fancy (and not at all bad) pizzeria called "Piazza Artigiani del gusto." Now they have taken over the samoposluga too. Is the name meant to imply that they will expand all the way to the pijaca?
- Nicest surprise: Seeing my high school friend, in town with her husband to do research.
- Greatest reassurance: Bukovače (always excellent) at kafana Proleće.
2008-05-31
....or are you just happy to see me?
2008-05-30
Znalac. Intelektualac. Sam je sebi stranac. Kao vanzemaljac.
2008-05-29
Tremblez, tyrans et vous perfides
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A few people may have been surprised about the gesture yesterday on the part of SRS, DSS and SPS to declare that they have reached an agreement to form a city government for Belgrade. Obviously the symbolic importance of controlling the local government in a city where these parties have never won an election (not this time either) would be hard to overstate.
When symbols are in question, respond with symbols. DS strategist Dragoljub Mićunović rushed to remind people that mayors can be removed by the city assembly, which people in his party have known since 1997. And the head of the assembly hurried to choose a late date for constituting the new assembly: 14 July. The date should be meaningful to the SRS candidate for mayor Aleksandar Vučić (try his delicious squid recipe!), who as information secretary in the Milošević regime controlled the media outlet known to everyone at the time as "TV Bastille."
2008-05-28
Udobnost fotelja
But it is entirely possible that SPS is overreaching. Their coalition partners are openly balking at joining forces with parties that want to quash the stabilisation agreement with the EU. And Milutin "pre roka" Mrkonjić has remembered what was no nice about having executive power in an illegal government: the opportunity to interfere with judicial power. So he wants amnesty for the criminals of the old regime as a condition for negotiating at all. A few more conditions like that, and it might be reasonable to expect no government to be formed and new elections to be called in the fall instead.
If new elections were to be called, there is a possibility that somebody might get a majority. There is less patience than ever for parties with a few seats behaving as though they are the majority. Another possibility is that SPS will finally have its long-awaited split, along the lines of the fractures that have become more than apparent in the last two weeks. DSS too.
2008-05-25
Eurovision
Update: It seems some people were attacked after all.
What becomes of the brokenhearted?
If Sv. Voja Neobavešteni actually does shuffle off, it will be a fight for control of DSS between people who want to preserve it as a centre-right party (like Aleksandar Popović, probably) and people who would always have been Radicals if only Radicals dressed better, like Slobodan Samardžić.
Whereas Terry Wogan would have to be replaced by Barry Gibb.
2008-05-22
Krkowhat?
2008-05-21
A tree fell on it
2008-05-20
Winston Napier
2008-05-18
Grist for the rumour mill
Still the guesses remain that SPS is buying time and has put conditions to SRS and DSS that they are not likely to accept, like control of both the Interior ministry and the intelligence agencies. SPS also has a deal-killer for both coalitions, complete rehabilitation of Slobodan Milošević, Mirjana Marković and their sundry criminal relatives. And there are claims that SPS is talking concretely with the DS-led coalition "For a European Serbia." What sorts of concrete things? Rumour is that DS is offering SPS the ministries for infrastructure, social services, and for Kosovo. Alongside these offers, it seems Vuk Drašković would like to be ambassador to the United States, and a few names are being mentioned as a possible prime minister: Gordana Matković, Bojan Pajtić and Mirko Cvetković (that last name surfaced early on, just after the elections, as a nonparty figure who might be acceptable to both DS and SPS). Another name that has been floated is that of Ivan Vujačić, who would need some work if Drašković were to head to Washington to replace him.
It is not clear who is feeding this information to the media or whether any of it is accurate. Assuming that the basic bit of speculation holds, and SPS is carrying on negotiations with DSS and SRS that are destined to fail, the question remains whether for DS, the price of forming a coalition with SPS might not be higher than the price of spending some time in opposition.
Translating: To the second page of the street
2008-05-14
In which Eric learns a new bit of UK-ish academic jargon
Fun with DSS and SRS
2008-05-12
A formula that adds up to 126
Do I have an opinion on this possibility? I do indeed have several. They vary between two extremes -- the first of which is that it would be a shame to see criminals back in power again (moderating factor: they never left), and the second is that if SPS were ever to become a real political party with a programme that bears some resemblance to its name, this would be good for everyone.
Update: Tihomir Loza has some reflections on the subject too.
Un hombre sincero de donde crece la palma
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More fun with electoral math: all eyes are on SPS seeking to set a juicy high price for itself. But probably three or four parliamentary seats will go to Koštunjavi's coalition partner Dragan Marković Palma. Any mother would love the fellow, who is well versed in the classical music canon and once used the podium of the parliament (when he was a deputy for Arkan's party) to ask the police to carry out a coup. But now as the mayor of an increasingly prosperous small city, he wants to attract investment, and that means Europe, and that means no room for Radicals. DS has already shown repeatedly how willing it is to swallow its pride and sacrifice its supporters' beliefs. Would they rather do it with the devil who never held a monopoly of power than the one that did?
Why were the polls wrong?
- There are too few survey agencies. Not that I am wishing for more survey agencies (however convenient they might be in providing short-term employment for graduate students). But as a rule, one survey does not necessarily tell you much. It becomes possible to figure things out when you are able to make comparisons over time, or when you can compare surveys done by different agencies on the basis of their samples or methods of analysis. Patterns mean more than individual results mean.
- The experience is not long enough. More elections means that pollsters have more familiarity with sources of error, in particular the patterns in the tendencies of people to misreport their own preferences or likelihood of voting. Although elections have been fairly frequent in the past few years, the experience of free elections only dates to December 2000. Patterns are not yet well established.
- The political environment is volatile. In established democracies, most votes can be accounted for by regular patterns. Regions and populations have fairly consistent tendencies, and the factor that accounts for most voting behaviour is family tradition. This does not happen in environments where parties appear and disappear with some regularity and where the population changes.
- Something is at stake. People do lie, and they lie more often about things that matter. Surveys on the brand of toothpaste people prefer will always get more accurate results than surveys on people's sexual or religious practices. In many established democracies where major parties converge toward the centre, political preference is more like toothpaste. In polarised societies it is more like religion and sex.
- Things really do change. Survey agencies had a guess about how much the stabilisation agreement with the EU, signed two weeks before the election, might help DS. But the deal between Zastava and Fiat, and the visa concessions made by European governments, came in the final week. There wasn't time to account for them.
- The media and communications landscape is not unified. Not everbody has a telephone. Younger people are likely to bypass the phone companies entirely and rely on mobiles. This has the effect of skewing samples. Also, not everybody has access to the same information media. Independent sources of information reach the urban entres more regularly than they reach the smaller towns and villages.
2008-05-11
I suppose it beats "Keep on truckin'"
If at first you sort of succeed
That leaves two potential coalition partners who are at best undesirable: DSS with 30 seats and SPS with 21. SRS could form a weak government with their fellow recipients of DB largesse in SPS and DSS with 127 seats. Or DS could try to pick off one of them, at the cost of their capacity to govern.
Look for a lot of things that will be euphemistically called incentives that will be used to encourage individual deputies from SPS and DSS to switch their loyalties.
And in the meantime, be pleased that it will at least not be easy for SRS to return to power.
Results tonight, turnout high
- Most of the preelection surveys show the DS-led coalition and SRS running about even. One of them will be the largest group in the new parliament but neither one will have a majority. This means that smaller parties will decide who forms the next government.
- The biggest of the small parties is DSS (in coalition with NS). Surveys show them running somewhere between 12 and 14 percent, but I am tempted to think that this is overestimated, considering that in the last parliamentary election they got around 16 percent and in the meantime they have alienated many of their supporters. This may very well be wishful thinking on my part, however, and I could be carried away by the thought that the cold dead hand of Vojislav Koštunica might have no influence at all on upcoming events.
- LDP may well be gaining in influence, although they undoubtedly have a fairly restricted base and hence an upper limit. A strong showing on their part would limit the capacity of Mr Tadić to form another coalition with parties who are fundamentally opposed to the wishes of most DS supporters.
- The strange creature that uses the word "Socialist" in its name will probably get some meaningful number of seats in the parliament. Neither of the larger parties has the guts (and probably not the room to maneuvre either) to avoid a coalition with them. They are thieves, so will go with whoever offers them the most lucrative patronage.
- Turnout in Vojvodina and Sandžak will determine whether the minority parties remain marginal or decide who forms the next government. Although it could be argued that their strongest interest is in supporting DS, they may have a stronger interest in being represented at all, and so could easily decide to give a margin of victory to SRS rather than sitting on the sidelines for an indeterminate period.
Update: Estimating again around 5PM, the turnout looks as though it might not be so high after all. Low turnout is a reason to be worried about the result.
Update2: If history is a guide, when turnout is low then fascinating things happen during the final hour of voting.
2008-05-10
A blast from the past
2008-05-09
Irony
Update: Oh my goodness, there is an audio version too. With catastrophic pronunciation.
Kad je interesa nije sramote
The Milošević trial gave the best insight into the way the retired general works. According to sources at the Tribunal, he brought with him six hundred documents that he intended to present as evidence. That might not have been a problem during the trial, if the prosecution had not earlier requested from Belgrade the majority of just those documents. However, our government replied that they simply did not have those documents.The article goes on to claim that former chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte, against the protests of the lead prosecutor in the case Geoffrey Nice, proposed dropping the entire set of charges related to Kosovo in order to assure a chance of peeking at Mr Delić's etchings. And there is a small effort to calculate how much Mr Delić was paid for his services.
In the likely event of an electoral disaster on Sunday, Božidar Delić is the probable candidate of SRS to take the position of Minister of Defence. From that position, he should have a better capacity to sell military documents to the people to whom he loudly claims to be opposed.
Update: Where was Ms del Ponte's friend on 25 March 1999?
2008-05-08
In memoriam
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Let's take a little break from the words of such thinkers as Tomislav Nikolić, Goran Davidović, Gordana Pop-Lazić, Vojislav Koštunica, Velimir Ilić and the rest of them. There are also, and have been in the lands of East Ethnia, fine thinkers who were also fine people and who have made fine interventions. Vreme features an obituary about one of them, Milan Kangrga, written by another one of them, Lino Veljak.
One hand washes the other
2008-05-07
Dragulji from the history of voting fraud
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The year was 1968, the competition was Eurovision, and we do not necessarily have to believe the Guardian's assurance that this or any other song by Cliff Richard was "actually one of the better entries." But its second place finish may not be valid evidence one way or another. Because apparently what happened was that old Francisco Franco sent the representative of Televisión Española around Europe to funnel money to other television and publishing outlets, buying up series, arranging for concerts and promotions, the works. This infusion of cash translated into a phalange of votes for the Spanish entrant, a very serious (oh, let's quote the Guardian again: "trumpet-tootling, bodice-ripping") song by Massiel called "La la la." Of course there is a video. And another. Rock out to the vote-buying, boys n gals.
2008-05-05
The future is so bright
A note to the nationalist right
2008-05-02
Uranak
The Balkans have been up to much of the same, but we will tell you about that in more detail, won't we?
And if any of the dear readers here are members of the monstrosity known as Facebook, you may want to join the group of our friendly little Centre to find out about our upcoming events. Next week we will have a conference on new research organised by our friends at Goldsmiths, and soon we will have details up for the launch of the new book by Celia Hawkesworth on 22 May.
In the meantime, if any of you have leads on a nice but not too costly 2-3 bedroom rental on Muswell Hill, do let me know. And if any of you have clever ideas on how to run iTunes through my little mini stereo (it has a USB port!) you will earn my gratitude.
Back at cha.
2008-03-17
Bogohuljenje
A higher power once showed it was aware of this, when lightning struck the large concrete object that bears the name of Sveti Sava and no other relationship to him on the day of Sveti Sava in 1995. One might also expect the dean of the faculty of law to be aware of this, but one would be wrong.