Mixed messages coming from the state LNP conference this past weekend illustrate the argument within the LNP over preferencing Pauline Hanson's One Nation in the next state poll. Do they go for the simple statewide tactic of 'If you vote One Nation, put us second', or do they opt for a more subtle seat by seat strategy?
The problem for the LNP is that, despite preferencing One Nation in the bush, the LNP may still lose seats in the bush to One Nation. Moreover, preferencing One Nation in the city, the LNP may lose the urban Liberal seats like Indooroopilly, Mt Ommaney, Mansfield, Everton and Clayfield. Urban progressives could be expected to run a vociferous anti-One Nation campaign.
![Pauline Hanson.](/web/20160830124911im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/1/f/p/x/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gr36ip.png/1472419333144.jpg)
One cannot imagine Scott Emerson strolling through the shopping strip on Hawken Drive in St Lucia with how to vote cards preferencing One Nation. Rahul and Sangeeta Singh who run the local newsagency, are not going to preference Pauline. The Thai folk who run the Bangkok Delights restaurant, the Indian folk who run Curry Connection, the Turkish bloke who runs the popular student takeaway, none of them are going to vote for One Nation.
Ian Walker, even with a 0.5 per cent margin in Mansfield, is not going to curry favour with One Nation.
Will members of a Christian clique in the LNP, such Fiona Simpson and Tim Mander and others, remain true to mainstream Christianity which eschews Islamophobia, or succumb to the temptation of pragmatism?
In short, old Nats seats could go to Pauline; old Lib seats to Labor, or even the Greens.
The problem for Tim Nicholls is the argument that 'the party organisation manages preference deals'. The constant question from both journalists and in public debates will be: "As leader, do you personally back Pauline?"
The LNP has 14 seats on a margin of under 5 per cent. Lockyer (0.2 per cent margin), and Callide (6.7 per cent), where One Nation ran second in 2015, are especially vulnerable. The Katter boys, however, are sustained by healthy margins of over 15 per cent, as is Speaker Wellington.
The ALP is not as vulnerable in the regions: In the Wide Bay-Burnett region: Bundaberg (1.6 per cent), Maryborough (1.7 per cent); In North Queensland: Mundingburra (2.8 per cent), Barron River (3.1 per cent), and in Central Queensland: Keppel (4.8 per cent), and Mirani (4.8 per cent), are the only seats with margins under 5 per cent.
Part of the appeal of One Nation may depend on its performance in the Senate. Given their scepticism about the integrity of both the Bureau of Meterology and NASA, I'm surprised they are even willing to get on a plane to Canberra.
For success the Queensland LNP needs to have a forked tongue strategy: pro-Pauline in the bush, and anti-Pauline in the city. Arguments about consistency and integrity apart, it's a tough strategy to sell.
Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that Ronan Lee was twice elected as a Green in Indooroopilly.
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