Andrei Lankov
The following is the third in a three-part series on future scenarios for the North. Part one can be read here, and two here.
The third of our scenarios regarding North Korea’s future implies that the DPRK of 2036 will be a unified state, after a unification with the mighty South (essentially, like it or not, on South Korean terms).
Though it is rather pointless to speculate about the probability of the two scenarios we discussed before, it seems that a future unification-by-absorption is much more likely than a successful ‘developmental dictatorship with North Korean characteristics’ or a pro-Chinese puppet government.
In fact, with the current state of affairs the only conceivable way a unification of Korea is likely to be achieved is via the notorious ‘unification by absorption’. While it is considered “politically correct” in South Korea to pretend that unification should and will be achieved as a result of prolonged negotiations and compromises between the two Korean governments, such expectations appear to be completely unfounded pipe-dreams.
To start with, no unification in recent history has ever been achieved in such a cordial and sweet manner. If we take into consideration the peculiarities of the present-day Korean Peninsula situation, such an outcome appears to be even less likely – essentially, impossible. The North Korean ruling elite has no reason to enter serious and sincere negotiations about the merger of the two Korean states since in such a merger, they – being a far weaker participant – will have no chance of remaining in a position of power and control. Furthermore, they are afraid of the type of incidents related to revenge which other disposed elites has suffered.
No unification of two states in recent history has ever been achieved in such a cordial and sweet manner
Therefore, if the unification of the two Koreas is going to be achieved in the foreseeable future (that is, within a few decades), it can be achieved only as a result of what can be best described as a German scenario. It will imply a revolutionary upheaval in North Korea (rather bloody and dangerous), followed by a speedy unification with the rich and powerful South, or, rather, annexation of the North by the South.
If this scenario is going to be realized, the Pyongyang of 2036 is almost certain to be more prosperous than the Pyongyang of 2036 under the two other scenarios we have discussed. The unification with South Korea – a filthy rich country by the meager North Korean standards – will immediately raise the living standards of the North Koreans and will provide most of them with instant access to modern technology. They will daily eat pork and even beef, ride cars and – at least, in the cities – have a round-the-clock supply of hot water. In other words, they will enjoy the lifestyle currently available to the top 0.5% of the North Koreans. Of course, they will have uncensored media and will live without fear of being incarcerated for a politically incorrect joke.
North Koreans go to pay respect for the dead | Picture: NK News
HOW TENSION WILL MOUNT
However, contrary to what optimists tend to believe, such a dramatic improvement in their well-being will not necessarily make them happy.
In a unified Korea, the deep inequality and division between two formerly independent states is likely to persist for decades to come. Given the low level of mass education and the sorry state of infrastructure in North Korea, it is impossible to hope that the gap between the two Koreas will disappear within the lifetime of one generation. This gap will also mean that many (perhaps, A majority) of North Koreans will soon come to perceive themselves as ‘second rate citizens’ who are subjected to all kind of discrimination in what has ostensibly become a unified country.
Indeed, with very few exceptions, it will be impossible for the vast majority of North Korean to be employed in anything but low skill, low paid jobs. For example, why would a modern company hire a North Korean engineer, a person who might have a deep knowledge of the physics and mathematics, but never used a computer design system? The North Korean medical doctors, history teachers and a majority of scientists, not to mention party propagandists (not a small group) also have no chances to find sound, respectable employment in the unified North Korea of 2036.
With very few exceptions, it will be impossible for the vast majority of North Korean to be employed in anything but low skill, low paid jobs
Many North Koreans will see this issue as a sign of deliberate discrimination by the arrogant and rich Southerners. But while discrimination is likely to be present and prominent, in most cases such treatment will be an unavoidable result of the North Koreans’ own education and background.
Such a situation is likely to lead to a great tension. The North Koreans will see their South Korean brethren as arrogant, materialistic and greedy. The South Koreans will probably reciprocate since the lion’s share of the astronomical unification cost is likely to be paid by South Korean tax payers. Thus, for the average South Korean, the North Koreans will appear as ungrateful and excessively demanding folks who are also lazy, poorly educated and poorly organized. This thinly veiled (or sometimes blatantly demonstrated) mutual irritation seems to be unavoidable – more so, given the strong traditions of the local identities and local politics in both Koreas.
Ideally, as I have argued elsewhere, instead of joining a unitary state immediately upon unification, North and South Korea should for a time being maintain a configuration. However, being realistic, one has good reasons to suspect that such a turn of events is not very likely. Most likely, the dizzying speed, passions and inflated expectations which will accompany the North Korean revolution and ‘unification crisis’ will prompt an immediate and complete absorption of what is now North Korea.
Man attends motorbike problem | Picture: NK News
WINNERS AND LOSERS
Surprisingly, it seems that the people who will fare best in a unified state will be the cadres of the North Korean regime and their children. Only these people have the education and social skills necessary for career success in the post-unification society. Though these people are unlikely to go very high on the career ladder, one can be pretty sure that most of the junior and mid-ranking positions in the North Korean bureaucracy will be overwhelmingly occupied by the former officials of the Kim family regime. They will simply – and with great ease – discard their professed belief in Juche ideas and will start busily re-inventing themselves as lifelong closet democrats and ardent supporters of the market economy. We saw this in the Soviet Union, in Eastern Europe and in China (in less open fashion), so there is no reason to think it will not happen in North Korea as well.
In contrast, it is the ‘lords of money’ of the Kim family era – the entrepreneurial class that emerged in the 1990s and has since grown significantly – which could stand to lose the most. These people have great entrepreneurial skills, but most of their knowledge and experience is too specific and of little value for the regular market economy which will emerge in the unified state. The North Korean black market oligarchs know how to bribe officials and how to manipulate the outdated North Korean economic system, but they have little, if any, chances to successfully compete with the South Korean big businesses equipped with huge amounts of capital, experience and technical expertise.
The reaction of the common North Koreans to the new situation will be mixed. Unlike former officials or medical doctors or architects, they will not lose much social status to feel sorry about, and their material well-being will increase considerably. However, their feelings will still be hurt by the complete (and highly visible) domination of the Southerners in positions of prestige and power, as well as by the lack of possibility for social mobility (the kids of common North Koreans will have a hard time competing with Southern kids or children of the North Korean elite).
Nostalgia for the former Kim regime may emerge | Picture: NK News
NOSTALGIA WILL EMERGE
Thus one should not be surprised if portraits of Kim Il Sung, whose statues are going to be toppled in the heyday of revolution, will start popping up in private houses. While, objectively speaking, the late Generalissimo killed more Koreans than any foreign invader, and made the entire messy situation unavoidable, he is likely to be remember as a tough and stern but caring leader under whose rule people were equal and proud. Those readers who are skeptical of this should check the situation in today’s Russia, where Joseph Stalin remains one of the most popular historical figures: an idol for a noticeable minority, and a controversial but basically worthy leader for many more.
Kim Il Sung is likely to be remember as a tough and stern, but caring leader under whose rule people were equal and proud
Of course, the former victims of the Kim family regime will have different opinions. However, their voice will be well heard. The vast majority of former prison camps’ inmates and other people who suffered greatly under the Kim family regime will remain at the bottom of the new society – even though, admittedly, life ‘at the bottom’ in the post-unification North Korea of 2036 will be significantly better than the life of the average North Korean nowadays. Unfortunately, these people have little if any marketable skills and also a bad state of health, following years of hard work in fields, mines and labor camps. Given their sheer numbers, though, and the sorry state of the post-unification economy, one cannot realistically hope that regime victims will receive any meaningful compensation for their suffering.
So, the picture is rather grim. But one should not feel too much despair. As we have said before, in spite of all the social problems and discontent, the 2036 unified – or should we say ‘annexed’? – North Korea will still be a far more prosperous place than it would be conceivable under any other possible scenario.
But after ten years or so we will see the first signs of the deep social wounds beginning to heal. While middle aged North Koreans will feel nostalgic about the great days of Kim Il Sung, the youngest Koreans, then in their early 20s and as first members of the post-unification society, will probably start seeing things differently.
Eventually, the new national identity of a unified Korea will be repaired. So while in the initial years the pan-Korean identity will face serious threats, after some time the sense of shared destiny and, hence, common identity, will begin to re-emerge (perhaps, massaged and assisted by intense nationalistic campaigns). It will only be a question of time – perhaps, quite a long time – before citizens of both North and South Korea will see themselves as members of the same community. However, the transition is going to be very painful and will take a lot of time.
Main picture: NK News
NO free posts remaining!
Login to continue reading
SIGNUP & GET THREE FREE T-SHIRTS!
To mark the middle of summer, for the next seven days subscribers get the following special:
-
- THREE free Dangerous Breed limited edition North Korea t-shirts
- FREE ebook multipack, including exclusive titles by Dr. Andrei Lankov and NK News contributors
- ONE YEAR of access to the latest N.K. news, opinion and analysis