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Thursday, 21 July 2016

Can the Egyptian-Saudi partnership last amid disagreements?

Experts say that the disagreements between Egypt and Saudi Arabia over some regional issue will not affect the long term partnership

Omar Halawa , Monday 4 Apr 2016
Sisi and Salman
An archival for a previous meeting between Egypt's President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi (Left) and Saudi Arabia's King Salman Bin Abdel-Aziz (Photo :Al Ahram)
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In June 2014, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah flew to Cairo to hold a meeting with newly-elected President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi.

The visit was a mark of the Saudi monarch's consistent support for El-Sisi; in July 2013, the king was the first Arab leader to support the ouster of Egypt's Islamist president Mohamed Morsi.

King Abdullah passed away in 2015, but on Thursday, his successor King Salman is set to continue his legacy of support for Egypt, arriving for his first official visit to the country as monarch.

The trip aims at "boosting bilateral relations between the two countries in different sectors,” according to the Saudi embassy in Cairo.

Behind the scenes, however, it seems that there are a number of disagreements between the two allies over regional issues such as the situation in Syria, in Yemen, and Egypt’s frosty relationship with Turkey, a vocal opponent of Morsi’s ouster.

Some Egyptian media outlets have been seen by many as opposed to Saudi foreign policy, but Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said last week that while Riyadh is "not comfortable with what is being circulated in the media, we can assure them that the Egyptian state is not directing any press views."

"The relationship with the Saudis is interdependent and inseparable," vowed the minister.

Experts say that despite the bubbling disagreements under the surface, the bilateral relationship is strong because neither party can risk losing the mutual benefits the alliance assures.

Yousri El-Azabawi, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, believes that both countries are aware of the importance of being allies or at least maintaining a stable relationship, despite any differing views.

"Each country, without the support of the other, remains weak. The Saudis need Egyptian expertise in terms of military cooperation and Cairo needs Riyadh's economic assistance, while both states need to maintain strong ties and collaboration in international forums such as the Arab League and the United Nations," El-Azabawi told Ahram Online.

Last month, Egyptian forces participated in Saudi's "Thunder of the North" military exercise alongside over 20 other Arab and Muslim-majority countries.

Those countries are members of the Saudi-led "Islamic military alliance against terrorism" which was established in December 2015.

A few hours after Cairo said that it would join the alliance, Riyadh announced an economic aid package for Egypt in the form of agreement to supply five years worth of oil, and $8 billion in additional investments.

Saudi Arabia has supported Cairo with billions of dollars in aid, grants, oil products and cash deposits to help buoy the country's economy following the toppling of Morsi in July 2013.

Different perspectives

Mutual cooperation aside, both Cairo and Riyadh share different views on the Syrian civil war.

Riyadh has demanded an immediate removal of Bashar Al-Assad and his regime, whereas Egyptian diplomats do not consider his removal to be a prerequisite. Egypt has consistently called for the stability of the Syrian state institutions to be prioritised.

The two states are also diverging on Yemen. Experts argue that Cairo is opposing the rise of the Saudi-backed Islah Party to power in the conflict-torn state, given that it is affiliated with Egypt’s now-banned Muslim Brotherhood.

However, Egypt has extended its participation in the Saudi-led coalition which is fighting the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen for another more year.

Egyptian forces were originally deployed to the Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Bab Al-Mandab strait in March 2015, and has been limited to navy and air forces only, with some media reporting that Egypt had refused to deploy ground troops in the conflict.

Ahmed Rakha Hassan, a former diplomat and member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, explained to Ahram Online the reasons behind the Egyptian stances on both the Yemeni and the Syrian crisis.

"Egypt is not supporting Al-Assad's regime," Hassan said. "Egypt needs to keep the Syrian state institutions stable and in particular the national army, as Damascus in considered instrumental by Cairo when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Lebanese internal political crisis," he said.

"Also Egypt is against the circulating idea of making Syria a federal state, which will lead to a division and will produce a new sectarian Iraq," he added.

"Egypt fears that resorting to this option will help the Brotherhood rise to power in Syria."

Hassan also said that Egypt is uncomfortable with the idea of Saudi Arabia backing the Islah Party in Yemen due to its Brotherhood affiliation, but also because it is a Sunni union, whereas Yemen is a majority Shia state.

"Egypt is participating in the war against the Houthis mainly to secure the regional water way in the Red Sea which leads to the Suez Canal," he said, adding that in his view Egyptian diplomats are trying to “seek a strategic balance, rather than looking into regional affiliations and whims," he explained.

Anwar Ishqi, a Saudi political commentator and director of the Middle East Centre for Strategic and Legal Studies in Jeddah, acknowledges that Saudi diplomats are now "implementing different policies than before due to the latest developments and the balance of power calculations in the region."

But Ishqi agrees that such changes and the aforementioned disagreements about regional issues won't affect the "strong ties" between the two countries.

"Each country has its vision," Ishqi told Ahram Online. "This will never make the relations frosty."

"We know quite well that Egypt is busy with its internal development process and its domestic war on terror and thus the Egyptian military is not required to participate in the war in Yemen with its full force," he said.

"Each country in the Yemeni war coalition has its strategic role which is agreed upon with Saudi Arabia," Ishqi explained.

Ishqi also argues that Egyptian fears about the rise of Brotherhood-affiliated groups in the current zones of conflict may be unfounded.

"I don't think that the Brotherhood rising to power in either Syria or Yemen would cause harm to Egypt," he said.

"We know that Egypt's Brotherhood is different from its counterparts in other countries and now each affiliated group has its very own strategy away from the leading group in Egypt, which is now much weaker due to the recent political developments," he explained.

Reconciliation with Turkey?

Some in Egypt questioned whether the decision to join the Saudi-led Islamic military coalition, dubbed by experts a "Sunni bloc" to counterbalance the power of Shia Iran, could lead to an eventual reconciliation with fellow coalition member Turkey.

On Sunday, Saudi columnist Khaled El-Dakheel, writing in London-based Al-Hayat Arabic daily, said that King Salman would raise the issue of Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement during his visit to Cairo on Thursday.

"Saudi Arabia has been playing a mediating role for a while between Egypt and Turkey, either to achieve a reconciliation or at least to ease the tension between them," he wrote.
"But why Riyadh is keen on this?" he added.

"Because, at the least, coordination between Riyadh, Cairo and Ankara is needed to restore balance in the region in the face of the US retreat, the Russian invasion, and Iran and its allies," he argued.

"This will achieve significant balance to maintain the interests of the three countries while discussing solutions to regional issues, especially the Syrian crisis," El-Dakheel added.

However, El-Azbawi argues that Saudi Arabia can't force Egypt to reconcile with Turkey.

"Even if there are efforts to reach a reconciliation, I think that the Saudis are aware that Turkey has good ties with Iran, so they might be cautious about considering it a tangible ally," he added.

Former diplomat Hassan stresses that despite such issues, both countries will not allow disagreements to affect "important strategic constants."

"The security of the Gulf is maintained from Egypt and the security of Egypt is maintained from the Gulf," he said. "This fact will always last."

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Ahram Online welcomes readers' comments on all issues covered by the site, along with any criticisms and/or corrections. Readers are asked to limit their feedback to a maximum of 1000 characters (roughly 200 words). All comments/criticisms will, however, be subject to the following code
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8



neil
20-04-2016 01:03pm
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5+
only two enemies
“Nearly all the ‘mainstream’ media is now saying that Saudi Arabia played a crucial role in 9/11, and Saudi Arabia has implicitly admitted its guilt: “Saudi Arabia has told the Obama administration and members of Congress that it will sell off hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of American assets held by the kingdom if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible in American courts for any role in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.” The real terrorist state is Saudi Arabia, and America has been defending that country’s terrorist crimes from time immemorial. “the State Department ignored thousands of civilian casualties from the Saudi-led bombing campaign in Yemen and overlooked widespread use of illegal cluster munitions, targeting civilians, destroying homes, schools, and hospitals, and using internationally banned cluster munitions. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been rapidly expanding across Yemen since the Saudi-led intervention.
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7



Allen
05-04-2016 08:38am
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9+
Someone please get a decent interior decorator for the Saudi Palace.
Guns on the wall, hideous looking furniture, and a flag right in the middle of the Royal family photo...
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6



Afnan
05-04-2016 02:38am
67-
1+
End of the day sisi will turn back from every helper
Mr sisi is unthankful person any time he can change his mind and turn back how he turn back against mr morsi Egypt becoming back world because of sisi nonsense policy's
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5



khaleefa
04-04-2016 10:56pm
69-
1+
is sisi a thankful person?
Morsi give a good post to sisi but what sisi did with mr morsi? Same if saudi help sisi than saufi compensation is ready how morsi got it . How saudi blind trusting on sisi? Is unthankful person can not appreciate any one king salman should be care full
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4



neil
04-04-2016 10:39pm
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3+
continued
"That Abu Muhammad Al-Jawlaani would attend the meeting, is testimony to the importance which the Saudis attached to this operation especially in light of the ground-shaking lie floated by the Saudi prince, Muhammad Bin Salmaan, alleging that a delegation from the Houthi rebels in Yemen was now in Al-Riyaadh suing for peace. That story has turned out to be a complete lie and the prince desperately needs some triumph in Syria to dilute the noisome mess he created for himself especially after the fall of Palmyra and Al-Qaryatayn to the Syrian Army……Cameron was pleased to instruct MI6 to go ahead with the plan. This is the same Cameron who hasn’t even had the good taste to express mere contentment at the liberation of the priceless antiquities at Palmyra…In any case, 26 leaders of both Alqaeda/Nusra and Jund Al-Aqsaa met to finalize the plan. But, once again, the British bolloxed it all up with the usual incompetent communication…. intercepted chatter and human intelligence (HUMINT) provided all the necessary details………And so, when the group gathered to pray before their meeting,……….before the Wahabist heretics could complete their entreaty to their non-existent Satanic God to insure their descent into the cauldron which awaits all terrorists, the bombs vaporized them.”
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3



neil
04-04-2016 10:33pm
0-
3+
bad timing
“The Syrian Army’s Air Force struck a blow to Alqaeda and its ally, Jund Al-Aqsaa, last night when an SAA Sukhoi-24 delivered a smashing KAB-500 rocket right into a meeting called by Abu Muhammad Al-Jawlaani, the leader of Alqaeda/Nusra …… to coordinate a new plan to overrun the defenses around the encircled towns of Al-Faw’ah and Kafarayyaa, both with largely Shi’i populations. The plan was hatched by the British in order to give the exiled opposition a card which it could use in the Geneva negotiations ……the Saudi Arabians wanted to hold the two towns hostage thinking that the Iranians (who view themselves as defenders of Shi’ism) would pressure Dr. Assad to concede more at the Geneva talks…….Muhammad bin Salmaan, the 30 year old son of the king and the deputy heir apparent, was behind the transmission to David Cameron whose MI6 now controls most terrorist operations in south Turkey through a network of former MI6 agents & SAS operatives now categorized ‘independent contractors'."
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2



Pharaoh
04-04-2016 08:38pm
1-
4+
liberty and anti-arabism
Arabism is great from a national security standpoint. I commend the politics, nonetheless in the near future the arab league needs to rename itself to the arabic league. Arab nationalism is a failure, arabic unity was and will always be a success. Egypt loves its arabic brothers but egypt is not an arab state, it is an arabic state. The bond is cultural and not nationalistic. We can unite with the west through liberty. We can unite with the international community through human rights. We can unite with arabophone people with the arabic literary culture. Strength through unity, we empower each other.
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1



Neo
04-04-2016 07:17pm
15-
18+
An Asset or a Liability
On the surface Egypt/Saudi relations is considered an Asset; Egypt provides military support and Saudi provides economic support. Digging deeper, the relationship is a Liability for Egypt in many ways: (1) Saudi’s religious influence on Egypt is more damaging than most realize; Azhar takes its marching orders from Saudi, condemning and criminalizing religious thinking, uneducated men emulate Saudi in treating their women like slaves, and the overall religious discourse is lacking in Egypt due to Saudi. (2) Economic support to Egypt is minuscule, Saudi injects a few billions a year while they invests 100’s of billions in agriculture alone around the world, even in California; if they’re serious about supporting Egypt they’d invest to rebuild the sector (invest not aid). (3) Foreign policy handcuffs, Egypt is charting the wrong course supporting war in Yemen, animosity with Iran, and cold-shoulder to the US to please Saudi. We don’t need a divorce but separate bedrooms is a good start!
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Yasmina
05-04-2016 06:12am
0-
68+
I agree with you
My parents lived at a time before Egyptians started going to work in Saudi Arabia. It was a beautiful time when Islam was able to evolve and keep pace with modernity. There was joy, people were good to each other and religion was taught in a better way. People were more gentle in their thought. Then workers started coming back from Saudi with their Wahhabi, hard-line, ideas. Their kind hearts had been locked away as they worked diligently to erase joy in the religious arena. It was a bad seed that grew as Saudi money build masjids and slowly subverted the beautiful path of Islam. The MB were not much better as they too injected poison. According to older family, women in Egypt have less freedom, more fears, and people so called religious people have no joy and don't want anyone else to be modern or happy.
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Ahram Online welcomes readers' comments on all issues covered by the site, along with any criticisms and/or corrections. Readers are asked to limit their feedback to a maximum of 1000 characters (roughly 200 words). All comments/criticisms will, however, be subject to the following code
  • We will not publish comments which contain rude or abusive language, libelous statements, slander and personal attacks against any person/s.
  • We will not publish comments which contain racist remarks or any kind of racial or religious incitement against any group of people, in Egypt or outside it.
  • We welcome criticism of our reports and articles but we will not publish personal attacks, slander or fabrications directed against our reporters and contributing writers.
  • We reserve the right to correct, when at all possible, obvious errors in spelling and grammar. However, due to time and staffing constraints such corrections will not be made across the board or on a regular basis.

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