Bill Shorten may have to block the promotion of Linda Burney, the first indigenous woman elected to the lower house, if he wants to save his Labor Left ally Kim Carr from being dumped from the shadow ministry.
In a move that shapes as a key test for Mr Shorten, Senator Carr is poised to be dumped from the frontbench by his own Left faction when the ALP caucus meets in Canberra on Friday.
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Kim Carr's uncertain future
The Labor veteran could be demoted in a frontbench reshuffle. James Massola explains why and who is in line for promotion.
Senator Carr's industrial base in the Victorian unions are already mobilising to fight the demotion, and there is talk of Mr Shorten being asked to intervene and save his Victorian ally.
Senior figures in the Victorian Left have warned that if Senator Carr was dumped then elements of the state-based left would walk away from the national Left group.
The move on Senator Carr has prompted an emergency meeting of the Victorian Socialist Left executive on Wednesday night, where members will be asked to vote on a motion that reiterates its support for left state and federal frontbench positions to be elected in accordance with the principles of proportional representation.
Labor's Left faction has allocated the newly-elected Ms Burney the 14th and final shadow ministry spot on its proposed ministerial ticket, putting the Opposition Leader in a difficult spot as the NSW MP would be first in line to be dumped to save Senator Carr.
However, Senator Carr could challenge another member of the Left's proposed shadow ministerial ticket during Friday's caucus meeting and - with the support of the Right - still scrape home.
A Right Faction source said that Mr Shorten was happy with his whole team and said: "We'll see what happens Friday but Bill thinks all of his colleagues have performed well, including Kim".
Fairfax Media has been told by several sources that Senator Carr had lost the support of almost all the Left frontbench ticket, including Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong, Jenny Macklin, Anthony Albanese, Mark Butler, Katy Gallagher and Catherine King, as well as factional conveners Andrew Giles, Pat Conroy and Anne Urquhart, and five more Tasmanian Left MPs including Carol Brown, who will also be promoted to the frontbench.
In fact, at least 20 of the 23 votes required to lock in the Left's proposed frontbench are locked in - making it very difficult for Senator Carr to turn things around.
At least two other frontbenchers appear certain to be punted when the Labor caucus meet on Friday.
NSW Right MP Sharon Bird, currently the vocational education spokeswoman, also looks set to be knocked off by her fellow faction member Ed Husic, although there are concerns that would further reduce the small number of women the NSW Right faction is putting forward.
Victorian Labor Right junior minister David Feeney - who endured a disastrous campaign - also looks set to be booted from the frontbench, with rising star Clare O'Neil likely to take his place as one of five Victorian Right frontbenchers.
There have been suggestions the Victorian Right could lose one of its five frontbench spots but if the well-regarded Ms O'Neil is promoted, it should be able to hang on to the fifth spot - and in so doing, also balance out the demotion of Ms Bird.
Tasmanian Senator Lisa Singh, currently the shadow parliamentary secretary for the environment, could also be axed - even though she looks set to buck a factional demotion and hang on to her Senate spot.
But it is the move on Senator Carr - whose support for Mr Shorten in the 2013 Labor leadership contest rather than Left candidate Mr Albanese infuriated colleagues - that has caused the most excitment in Labor circles.
"People are fed up with this pattern of behaviour [from Senator Carr]. Now this is a test of Bill. He supports the factional system, it's his model," one MP said.
Another MP said the move was payback for Senator Carr's behind-the-scenes maneuvering at the 2015 Labor party conference, in which he was seen to have publicly criticised Ms Plibersek and Ms Wong over their handling of the contentious vote over asylum seeker policy platform changes.
Senator Carr was once described as a "factional Dalek" for his vice-like grip on Victorian Labor - which he maintained with the Right Senator Stephen Conroy - under the so-called Stability Agreement, which allowed them to share around seats and influence in their home state.
The industrial Left in Victoria, including the CFMEU, Manufacturing Workers Union, the Community and Public Sector Union, United Voice and Financial Services Union have, however, thrown their support behind him.
Rail, Tram and Bus Union Victorian secretary Luba Grigorovitch said the industrial Left expected him to remain on the frontbench.
"Kim has effectively supported the Australian manufacturing through the turmoil of the Abbott-Turnbull years – advocating policy to provide support for stronger Australian industry," Ms Grigorovitch said.
CFMEU state secretary John Setka said the move against Senator Carr was being pushed by a "few egos in Sydney" who had held "clandestine meetings" during the election when they should have been working to see Labor elected.
"No one has done more for manufacturing than Kim," Mr Setka told Fairfax. "He has done a lot for innovation, I wish we had a few more politicians with his passion."
The new Labor frontbench will have 15 members from the Right, 14 from the Left and independent Andrew Leigh in the 30-person shadow ministry.
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