Washington: It won't be a surprise if the so-called Islamic State claims responsibility for the attack in Nice – but on the evidence available so far, it seems to have been one man living locally and acting alone, suggestive of self-radicalisation, not an attack managed and directed by IS.
Hours later there had still been no such claim, but French media reports that an ID card belonging to a 31-year-old resident of Nice who had dual French-Tunisian nationality had been found in the truck is indicative of a local lone-wolf venture similar to the June massacre in Orlando, Florida.
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France rocked to its core: Bishop
At least 84 people have been killed and dozens more injured in the Nice attack including three Australians, according to the Foreign Minister.
Leaders in France and across the globe are obliged to speak in horrified terms about the carnage, but there is little they can do – France was already under a tight state of emergency and security had been heightened further for the Bastille Day celebrations.
Intelligence agencies have been warning that more attacks were inevitable – as self-radicalised individuals took it upon themselves to act, but also as IS attempts to distract attention from the reality that its much-vaunted "caliphate", sprawling across Syria and into northern Iraq, is shrinking under US-led military pressure.
At the French embassy in Washington, a tearful ambassador Gerard Araud cancelled champagne and dancing by guests at his Bastille Day celebration and US President Barack Obama condemned it as an horrific terrorist attack.
"I have directed my team to be in touch with French officials and we have offered any assistance that they may need to investigate this attack and to bring those responsible to justice – we stand in solidarity and partnership with France, our oldest ally, as they respond to and recover from this attack," Obama said.
An editorial in Islamic State's weekly Arabic newsletter al-Naba in June conceded that all the territory held by IS could be lost, but last week an IS operative interviewed by The Washington Post argued that would-be volunteers reaching out to IS from around the world were being instructed to remain in their home countries and to "do something there".
"While we see our core structure in Iraq and Syria under attack, we have been able to expand and have shifted some of our command, media and wealth structure to different countries," he said.
Giving Americans a disturbing sense of deja-vu and seeming to have no recollection of his country's own recent history, the Republican party's 2016 hopeful, Donald Trump, responded to news of the attack in Nice by saying he would go to Congress to seek a declaration of war on global terrorism.
"This is war. If you look at it, this is war. Coming from all different parts. And frankly it's war, and we're dealing with people without uniforms. In the old days, we would have uniforms. You would know who you're fighting."
But presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton told CNN the US was already "at war with these terrorist groups and what they represent".
"It's a different kind of war and we have to be smart about how we wage it and win it," she said.
The attack in Nice came after the successful conclusion of the Euro 2016 soccer tournament, during which intelligence agencies had picked up warnings of attacks on stadiums in which the games were played – but none eventuated.
And only hours before the attack, Paris announced that the state of emergency imposed in November 2015, in the wake of attacks across the French capital in which 130 people died, would be lifted on July 26.
That's not going to happen. In his address to the nation after the attack, French President Francois Hollande announced another three-month extension to the measures.
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