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The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.
The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a fair coin. With a fair coin, the outcomes in different tosses are statistically independent and the probability of getting heads on a single toss is exactly 1⁄2 (one in two). It follows that the probability of getting two heads in two tosses is 1⁄4 (one in four) and the probability of getting three heads in three tosses is 1⁄8 (one in eight). In general, if we let Ai be the event that toss i of a fair coin comes up heads, then we have,
.
Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row, so that if the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. Since the probability of a run of five successive heads is only 1⁄32 (one in thirty-two), a believer in the gambler's fallacy might believe that this next flip is less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct, and is a manifestation of the gambler's fallacy; the event of 5 heads in a row and the event of "first 4 heads, then a tails" are equally likely, each having probability 1⁄32. Given the first four rolls turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is in fact,
This page contains text from Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License, which means that you can copy and modify it as long as the entire work (including additions) remains under this license.
This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License, which means that you can copy and modify it as long as the entire work (including additions) remains under this license.
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- author: B2Bwhiteboard
16:51
The Gambler's Fallacy: Casinos and the Gambler's Ruin (5/6)
This video is the fifth in a six-part series on the Gambler's Fallacy. In this video I sho...
published: 01 Aug 2014
author: Kevin deLaplante
The Gambler's Fallacy: Casinos and the Gambler's Ruin (5/6)
The Gambler's Fallacy: Casinos and the Gambler's Ruin (5/6)
This video is the fifth in a six-part series on the Gambler's Fallacy. In this video I show how to calculate the “expected value” of an act, and use this ill...- published: 01 Aug 2014
- views: 464
- author: Kevin deLaplante
0:29
Law and Order SVU 15x17 Promo "Gambler's Fallacy" (HD)
Law and Order SVU 15x17 "Gambler's Fallacy" - Detective Amanda Rollins' (Kelli Giddish) ad...
published: 06 Mar 2014
author: tvpromosdb
Law and Order SVU 15x17 Promo "Gambler's Fallacy" (HD)
Law and Order SVU 15x17 Promo "Gambler's Fallacy" (HD)
Law and Order SVU 15x17 "Gambler's Fallacy" - Detective Amanda Rollins' (Kelli Giddish) addiction drives her to an illegal gambling club, where waitress Clar...- published: 06 Mar 2014
- views: 15741
- author: tvpromosdb
19:07
Beating Spelunky: Part 4 - The Gambler's Fallacy
In this episode of Beating Spelunky, I decide to gamble - WITH MY LIFE. Want to follow my ...
published: 12 Sep 2012
author: WittzGaming
Beating Spelunky: Part 4 - The Gambler's Fallacy
Beating Spelunky: Part 4 - The Gambler's Fallacy
In this episode of Beating Spelunky, I decide to gamble - WITH MY LIFE. Want to follow my newest stuff? Follow me at: Pokemon Channel: http://youtube.com/the...- published: 12 Sep 2012
- views: 10219
- author: WittzGaming
6:24
The Gambler's Fallacy: When is a Coin Toss Fair? (3/6)
This is the third video in a six-part series on The Gambler's Fallacy. This video, “How Ca...
published: 01 Aug 2014
author: Kevin deLaplante
The Gambler's Fallacy: When is a Coin Toss Fair? (3/6)
The Gambler's Fallacy: When is a Coin Toss Fair? (3/6)
This is the third video in a six-part series on The Gambler's Fallacy. This video, “How Can You Tell Whether a Chance Setup is Unfair?”, explains why the ans...- published: 01 Aug 2014
- views: 259
- author: Kevin deLaplante
9:33
The Gambler's Fallacy: Fairness and Independence (2/6)
This is the second in a six-part series on the Gambler’s Fallacy.
In this video I survey...
published: 01 Aug 2014
The Gambler's Fallacy: Fairness and Independence (2/6)
The Gambler's Fallacy: Fairness and Independence (2/6)
This is the second in a six-part series on the Gambler’s Fallacy. In this video I survey different ways that a chance setup can be described as “unfair”. This requires that we distinguish between the concept of an “unbiased” sequence of outcomes and an “independent” sequence.- published: 01 Aug 2014
- views: 56
6:42
The Gambler's Fallacy
A little video about the Gambler's Fallacy and how you can use it to improve your odds in ...
published: 01 Sep 2013
The Gambler's Fallacy
The Gambler's Fallacy
A little video about the Gambler's Fallacy and how you can use it to improve your odds in various ways. Made using the demo version of ScreenFlow for my Design Tools class a Full Sail University- published: 01 Sep 2013
- views: 10
13:46
The Gambler's Fallacy: The Physics of Coin Tosses (4/6)
This is the fourth in a six-part series on the Gambler's Fallacy. This video explores the ...
published: 01 Aug 2014
author: Kevin deLaplante
The Gambler's Fallacy: The Physics of Coin Tosses (4/6)
The Gambler's Fallacy: The Physics of Coin Tosses (4/6)
This is the fourth in a six-part series on the Gambler's Fallacy. This video explores the relationship between probability concepts, like “independence” and ...- published: 01 Aug 2014
- views: 270
- author: Kevin deLaplante
1:32
Gambler's Fallacy
Gambler's Fallacy Our RIGHTS come from GOD not GOVERNMENT. "Think Twice... THINK before yo...
published: 09 May 2013
author: Angelyn Sedano
Gambler's Fallacy
Gambler's Fallacy
Gambler's Fallacy Our RIGHTS come from GOD not GOVERNMENT. "Think Twice... THINK before you SHADE"- published: 09 May 2013
- views: 87
- author: Angelyn Sedano
Youtube results:
15:29
The Gambler's Fallacy: The Psychology of Gambling (6/6)
This is the sixth video in a six-part series on the Gambler's Fallacy. The Gambler's Falla...
published: 01 Aug 2014
author: Kevin deLaplante
The Gambler's Fallacy: The Psychology of Gambling (6/6)
The Gambler's Fallacy: The Psychology of Gambling (6/6)
This is the sixth video in a six-part series on the Gambler's Fallacy. The Gambler's Fallacy is just one of a set of cognitive errors that people are prone t...- published: 01 Aug 2014
- views: 359
- author: Kevin deLaplante
1:07
Law & Order: SVU Promo 15x17 "Gambler's Fallacy" | 2014 1 4
لقد أنشأت هذا الفيديو باستخدام محرر فيديو YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/editor)...
published: 01 Apr 2014
Law & Order: SVU Promo 15x17 "Gambler's Fallacy" | 2014 1 4
Law & Order: SVU Promo 15x17 "Gambler's Fallacy" | 2014 1 4
لقد أنشأت هذا الفيديو باستخدام محرر فيديو YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/editor)- published: 01 Apr 2014
- views: 27
1:01
2013/05/02 BLACK OPERA ver.0.0《The Gambler's Fallacy》
V.I.I.M × BLACKSMOKER BLACK OPERA ver.0.0《The Gambler's Fallacy》 2013.05.02(thu) @ WWW (Sh...
published: 27 Apr 2013
author: Yohei Saito
2013/05/02 BLACK OPERA ver.0.0《The Gambler's Fallacy》
2013/05/02 BLACK OPERA ver.0.0《The Gambler's Fallacy》
V.I.I.M × BLACKSMOKER BLACK OPERA ver.0.0《The Gambler's Fallacy》 2013.05.02(thu) @ WWW (Shibuya) http://www.viimproject.com/ OPEN 19:30 / START 20:30 adv. 2,...- published: 27 Apr 2013
- views: 1578
- author: Yohei Saito
3:00
The Gambler's Fallacy: Introduction (0/6)
This video introduces a six-part series that explores critical thinking and probability co...
published: 01 Aug 2014
The Gambler's Fallacy: Introduction (0/6)
The Gambler's Fallacy: Introduction (0/6)
This video introduces a six-part series that explores critical thinking and probability concepts related to the Gambler’s Fallacy.- published: 01 Aug 2014
- views: 53
photo: AP / Mohammad Sajjad
16 Dec 2014
PESHAWAR. Taliban militants have entered an army-run school on Warsak road, taking students and teachers hostage. Five to six terrorists have entered the Army Public School. 104 including 84 children killed, scores injured. Firefight, evacuation underway. About 500 students and teachers are believed to be inside. 2.11 pm - PM Nawaz leaves for Peshawar ... "These are my children and it is my loss," the premier said ... KP CM ... Minister ... ....
photo: AP / Rob Griffith
Sydney cafe siege: Australia becomes the latest country to have its sense of invulnerability shattered
The Independent15 Dec 2014
For the past 10 years or so, Australian governments - and the public - have kidded themselves that they could have it both ways. They could join US-led adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq, earning themselves kudos with Western allies. And they could feel more or less safe from any kind of terrorist backlash, convinced that Australia was too small and too distant to become a target ... Sydney siege ... In pictures. Sydney siege ... React Now. Tweet ... ....
photo: AP / Daniel Ochoa de Olza
16 Dec 2014
El Cruz Azul de México se enfrentó al Real Madrid de España, esto por las semifinales del Mundial de Clubes 2014 que se celebra en Marruecos. En el único enfrentamiento que han tenido ambos equipos, la “máquina cementera” le sacó un empate a los merengues. El resultado del partido es el siguiente.Real Madrid 0-0 Cruz Azul ... (Posibles alineaciones) ... ....
photo: WN / Ahmed Deeb
17 Dec 2014
Hamas should no longer be included on an influential list of international terrorist organisations, an EU court has ruled. The General Court of the European Union, the second-highest court in the bloc, found that the inclusion of the group was not based on a "concrete examination" of Hamas's acts but on "imputations derived from the media and the internet" ... More follows. World News in Pictures. Voices ... News ... business ... 1....
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Business Insider
05 Dec 2014
No matter how much I pay attention to the sunk cost fallacy, I still naturally gravitate towards it ... The sunk cost fallacy plays on this tendency of ours to emphasize loss over gain ... The fallacy prevents you from realizing the best choice is to do whatever promises the better experience in the future, not which negates the feeling of loss in the past ... The gambler’s fallacy is —once again, we’re proven to be illogical creatures....
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The Times of India
30 Nov 2014
The fallacy of equivocation, for instance, is using the same word in different senses in the same argument.z Watch out for coloured terminology or spin doctoring.Coloured terminology gives not only the particular quality, but also the speaker's attitude towards the quality ... FALLACY OF RELEVANCE ... A cat crossing your path, and because of it you meeting with an accident, is a logical fallacy ... This is known as gambler's fallacy....
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The Guardian
17 Nov 2014
You are almost as likely to have been married to Katie Price as you are to win the jackpot, 20 is the least drawn number and 10,000 people are picking 1,2,3,4,5,6 every single week. Winners of the national lottery from the last 20 years. Photograph. The National Lottery/Camelot/PA. The first national lottery draw was on 14 November 1994 ... 13,983,816 ... 20 ... £720,152 ... 133 ... 39 ... Expecting certain numbers to be “due” is called the “gambler’s fallacy”....
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The betting mistakes we all make Examining the five biggest cognitive biases that sports bettors must overcome
ESPN12 Nov 2014
Here are the five most common cognitive biases of sports gamblers that lead to mistakes. ... The gambler's fallacy ... There is nothing learned from the past spins, though many gamblers have stared at that past pattern of spins and believed that black was an advantage play on that 11th spin. Similarly, gamblers will look at past outcomes in sports and look for patterns that they hope will predict the future....
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U~T San Diego
30 Oct 2014
Statistics can be illuminating or misleading. Relating to Sunday's Week 9 game between the Chargers and Dolphins, here, following, are a few off-the-rader stats of interest. • - The Dolphins are last in net yards per punt (34.3). If the Dolphins are unable to flip the field with their punting game, Philip Rivers becomes more dangerous. Conclusion ... Steering clear of the gambler's fallacy, we'll just move on the next category ... Theory ... -....
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Canberra Times
26 Sep 2014
Mystery moneymaker. CIS has become a cult figure among Japanese day traders. But only a handful of his peers know his real name, and no one has watched him work. It was six minutes after the opening bell on February 4, and dozens of big-name stocks were still untraded in Tokyo ... Then it was on to the next trade for the former video game champion and pachinko gambler who goes by the name CIS ... It's a phenomenon called the gambler's fallacy ... ....
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Canberra Times
26 Sep 2014
Mystery moneymaker. CIS has become a cult figure among Japanese day traders. But only a handful of his peers know his real name, and no one has watched him work. It was six minutes after the opening bell on February 4, and dozens of big-name stocks were still untraded in Tokyo ... Then it was on to the next trade for the former video game champion and pachinko gambler who goes by the name CIS ... It's a phenomenon called the gambler's fallacy ... ....
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Business Day
23 Sep 2014
Related articles. IN THE MARKETS. Buy low, sell high. the granddaddy of market myths StreetDogs. What to do - and not to do - according to 'Canslim' approach. I’VE talked to many folks who have blown up their accounts ... — DR Barton. Advice on position sizing from the Van Tharp Institute. ... You need to have objective and systematic ways of avoiding the "gambler’s fallacy". The gambler’s fallacy can be paraphrased like this ... ....
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The Los Angeles Times
23 Aug 2014
German researchers have some advice to the organizers of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Doha, Qatar. Hold the soccer tournament during the winter. Or, if the matches really must be played during the summer, hold them at night ... Their primary concern is the health of the spectators who would be watching. Related story. During penalty shootouts, goalies fall prey to 'gambler's fallacy' Julia Rosen ... ( Julia Rosen ) ... 8 ... Super Bowl viewers, take heed....
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The Times of India
02 Aug 2014
The goalkeepers, therefore, display what has been called the 'gambler's fallacy' — like a person who believes that after coin flips produce a run of 'heads', the next flip is bound to produce 'tails' ... "Because the goalkeeper displays the gambler's fallacy, kickers could predict which way the goalkeeper is likely to dive on the next kick....
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The Independent
02 Aug 2014
Israel bombarded the southern Gaza town of Rafah on Saturday as troops searched for an officer they believe was captured by Hamas in an ambush that shattered a humanitarian cease-fire and set the stage for a major escalation of the 26-day-old war ... President Barack Obama, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and others have called for his immediate and unconditional release ... Col ... AP ... News ... newsGoalkeepers suffer from 'gambler’s fallacy' during shoot-outs....
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Goalkeepers suffer from 'gambler’s fallacy' during shoot-outs, and penalty takers are missing a trick by ...
The Independent01 Aug 2014
The belief that an opposite outcome is "due" after a sequence of identical occurrences is known as the “fallacy of the maturity of chances", or the “gambler’s fallacy” ... When that happens, the goalkeepers are vulnerable to the “gambler’s fallacy” ... "Because the goalkeeper displays the gambler's fallacy, kickers could predict which way the goalkeeper is likely to dive on the next kick ... World News in Pictures. ....
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Could scientists have predicted World Cup penalties? Study says goalkeepers suffer from 'gambler’s fallacy'
Belfast Telegraph01 Aug 2014
[TICON-A VIDEO]. [TICON-A VIDEO] ... The belief that an opposite outcome is "due" after a sequence of identical occurrences is known as the “fallacy of the maturity of chances", or the “gambler’s fallacy” ... When that happens, the goalkeepers are vulnerable to the “gambler’s fallacy” ... "Because the goalkeeper displays the gambler's fallacy, kickers could predict which way the goalkeeper is likely to dive on the next kick ... Source. Independent ... ....
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