Scotland reap benefits of boldness from Vern Cotter’s new order

There was a period early in the second half of Scotland’s victory against France last Sunday when most Scots not blinded by the recent upturn in their team’s form feared the worst. Scotland might have headed into half-time 18-5 ahead but for the try they conceded with the last play of the first half, and the outplayed French were setting up camp in their 22, only six points adrift. The script felt familiar. Superiority squandered, promise unfulfilled. Defeat on the way.

If there is hope mushrooming throughout Scottish rugby this week before the final-round meeting against Ireland in Dublin on Saturday, it is because the script at that point changed. They handled the subsequent driven lineouts of the French with physicality and street wisdom. They did not wobble when a nothing penalty a few minutes later in an unthreatening part of the field allowed France to pull to within three at the end of the third quarter.

Scotland’s response in the final quarter was predicated upon their solidity of set piece and enhanced by a boldness in attack that has been threatening to break out for some time. After a getting-to-know-you flop of a Six Nations last year, Vern Cotter is starting to see his plans come together. In that respect, the World Cup came at the perfect time – an unbroken stretch of time with his squad after a year of preliminaries. They are reaping the benefits.

Much talk has centred on their cruel quarter-final defeat by Australia, but actually the win against Samoa might represent the first watershed, a transition from the wobbliness in adversity of old and the confidence we are witnessing now. The response to that adversity was set-piece solidity – underpinned by the excellence of WP Nel, every Scotsman’s new favourite player – and that boldness, exemplified by Greig Laidlaw’s decision to scrum a late penalty, which yielded him the match-securing try.

As if to demonstrate further the confidence coursing through Cotter’s regime Scotland have made changes to a winning team for the second time in a row. Jonny Gray’s pectoral injury means his replacement by Tim Swinson is enforced, as is Finn Russell’s with Duncan Weir, but Peter Horne, who replaced Russell on the day, might have reasonably expected to keep his place. Weir’s selection – like the reinstatement of Ryan Wilson at No8 one of three to play there for Scotland this championship – speaks of a luxury of options unknown in recent times.

“He’s been quite shrewd,� said Doddie Weir, the former Scotland international, of Cotter’s selection policy. “I was surprised that he changed a winning team [after Italy]. He’s playing mind games with his team. Even if you’re playing well you’re not guaranteed a place. But, also, the changes he’s made he wouldn’t have been able to in previous years, because we didn’t have the calibre of player.�

Glasgow are Pro12 champions, Edinburgh are pushing for a place in Europe and Scotland’s Under-20s beat England for the first time on the opening weekend. There is a justified sense of optimism about Scotland, which would become more tangible than at any point since 1999 if they were to win in Dublin and take what would almost certainly be third place.

But they face an Ireland team who, for all their troubles, rediscovered their form against Italy — and really do not want to finish the championship in their current position of fifth, having won the title last year. They make one change to a winning team, bringing back Tommy O’Donnell for the battered youngster, Josh van der Flier, who has excelled in his first two Tests.

Scotland’s record against Ireland in the Six Nations is miserable, having won only three times. One of those was in 2010 at Croke Park, a season when Scotland were typically close to being a good side but ended up relying on that final-round win in Dublin to avoid the wooden spoon.

This time, Ireland can see them coming. Scotland go to Dublin for the first time in many years with the world giving them a chance of winning. The ambush of 2010 is not on. If they are to win a third championship match, for the first time since 2006, they will have to do it the new way – with confidence and authority.