With the ignominy of a second wooden spoon in a row surely now averted, Scotland turn to what could be the most telling fixture of Vern Cotter’s reign so far. The win against Italy in the last round was the least they would have targeted. Now, though, the charge is to start winning matches as if they expect to do so.
France are the perfect next opponents. There is no historical reason for Scotland to anticipate victory over them, because they have done so only once this millennium, and that 10 years ago. Nevertheless, there is ample reason to think it is on if we consult the more unknowable indices of form and mood. Scotland’s win against Italy moved them back into the top 10 of the world rankings, and if France, at No7, remain two rungs ahead of them they have shown little over the past year to suggest it is deserved. The bookmakers have Scotland as slight favourites. To bear that assessment out with confidence would constitute a significant step forward – hence the telling nature of the encounter at Murrayfield on Sunday.
Scotland make two changes to the side from Rome: Alex Dunbar returns at inside centre after a year of injury, with the impressive Duncan Taylor moving out one to accommodate him, and Josh Strauss comes in at No8. There is a settled, athletic look about the Scots, who will line up opposite a France side who have again spun the wheel on the selection front.
The headline is the return of François Trinh-Duc for a latest chance to prove he is the man to offer guidance at fly-half. Beyond him, Wesley Fofana (on the wing) and Gaël Fickou resume position in the three-quarters, and Scott Spedding comes in at full-back. The experiment with Jonathan Danty is shelved for now, the young centre having returned to his club. Up front, Yoann Maestri is back in the second row for Paul Jedrasiak, another promising youngster sent home, and Yacouba Camara replaces Antoine Burban at flanker.
Would that Guy Novès could send fewer of his players back to their clubs. Burban’s case is the latest exposing the madness of the French system. He took a knock to the head against Wales a fortnight ago and left the field in the first half for an assessment before leaving for good early in the second. Last weekend he played for Stade Français and took another blow. Now he is out for the rest of the championship.
Indeed, this might be seen as the match between the put-upon teams of the championship. Seven of France’s starting XV featured for their clubs last weekend and another six of the replacements, which is actually better than normal. Meanwhile, six of Scotland’s starters were similarly engaged, although in Dunbar’s case it was a strategic decision.
Home advantage ought to be of extra assistance under these circumstances, but Scotland should not be looking to such consolations. Now is a critical point in their development. The promise of their recent form has been undermined, as ever, by a lack of belief when the tougher questions are asked. The win against Italy showcased a dynamism and flair in the first and final quarters that represent a template for more than wooden-spoon avoidance. The scrum is solid, too. Had they dealt with Italy’s restarts with more authority, their first Six Nations victory in two years might have been more comfortable still.
Scotland might even play king-makers on Sunday. If England were to beat Wales that would all but secure them the championship. A win for Scotland would then confirm it.
Some motivation will that be to the Scots. They go into their match concerned only with their own universe. A win would suggest their recent promise is finally being consolidated into something more substantial; the reverse does not bear thinking about.
