Best Documentary, On China The New Rising Superpower
Best Documentary, On
China The New Rising Superpower
In the last decade, the notion of China becoming the world’s next superpower has become almost an idee fixe for many. Compared to the other so-called
BRICS –
Brazil,
Russia and
India – China shines like the moon. Since
Deng Xiaoping created the
Four Modernizations in 1978, China has surged from being a marginal player on the global stage to a powerhouse that has attracted $2 trillion of foreign direct investment.
Its economy ranks first in the world in building modern infrastructure, global exports ($
2.2 trillion),
Internet usage (600 million people), college graduates (7 million per year), rate of economic growth (10 percent from
1980 to
2010), movement of peasants to the city (400 million from 1980 to
2013), high-speed rail under construction (40,
000 miles) and major airports (43). By 2025, it will likely have the world’s largest gross national product.
Given all this unprecedented growth, how can China miss becoming the world’s next superpower in 10 or 20 years?
Chinese officials have told me more than once that it will probably be 2050 before China becomes truly modern. How can this be?
A superpower also needs to develop political democracy, economic freedom, military power, legal system, quality of life and high tech creativity. In all these areas China lags far behind the
United States.
Politically, the United States had the world’s first democratic government in 1789 and expanded the franchise ever since. By contrast, after 65 years in power, the
Chinese communist government has not even begun to make the transition towards a semi-democratic state.
Rather, the government, whose think tanks in the
1990s used to talk of managing a democratic transition, has cracked down on movements in minority areas and in
Hong Kong. There are no democratic elections at any level.
Without this transition, the
People’s Republic of China faces the serious possibility of falling apart like the
Soviet Union did in
1991.
Economically, while the United States has a strong, relatively open capitalist economy, Chinese economic freedom is so poor that the
Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom ranks China 137th in the world alongside
Cameroon and
Tajikistan. As a result, the
Conference Board, citing the negative roles of state run capitalism and growth-fixated monetary policy, estimates Chinese economic growth to slide to only 4 percent by
2020.
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