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Paul Dales, one of the few economists to correctly call the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) only rate cut this year, has made another big call: a Brexit will have little impact on global markets.
The Englishman now living in Australia says all the worry is overdone.
"Even if the UK decides to leave I think global markets will take it in their stride. You might get some very short-term hits, and some flows into safe haven assets but eventually people will realise not a lot will really change," says Dales, the chief economist at Capital Economics.
The biggest risk is the break up for the European Union, but that has nothing to do with Britain and the real issue is how the EU will deal with it all, he says.
Dales also has a very upbeat view on the US economy and thinks the Federal Reserve will be raising rates a little quicker than most expect. He thinks the fed funds rate will be 2 per cent by the end of next year compared with 1 per cent that is currently priced into financial markets.
"The US is the one outlier when it comes to inflation. It has recovered a lot faster and because it's a big domestic exposed economy it doesn't have the risk of importing inflation."
Dales is also more optimistic on China despite the view built up during the past 12 months or so that there is going to be a hard landing.
"Over the next year or two it will be treading water and not weaken much further," he says.
Dales says the global outlook informs his local views. While some economists might lose themselves in the local data, including retail sales, GDP and house prices, to get a handle on it all, Dales takes a look at what the big trends are around the world.
"We do it a little differently I think," he says. "Rather than focus on the local economy first, my starting point is working out what are all the major trends around the world and then I ask what sort of impact they will have on Australia."
Once that's all done he comes up with his prediction for local interest rates.
That's how he realised it would be the global trend of falling prices, and not growth, that would eventually force the RBA's hand.
"I sat back and had a look at what was happening around the world and couldn't think of a reason why Australia would escape what I think is this global trend of falling inflation. I still can't, so I think the bank will have to cut," says Dales.
Low inflation behind rate prediction
Economic growth has surprised many experts, and is still running at a healthy annualised rate of 3.6 per cent over the six months to March. But the most widely quoted measure of underlying inflation is running at an annual rate of around 1.5 per cent, which is well below the central bank's target of 2 to 3 per cent and well short of expectations.
The problem of weak inflation is it begets lower interest rates and lower returns, which then begets even lower inflation and so on. Before too long you've got a pattern that's hard to break.
That's why low inflation is still the major reason behind his call that the cash rate will be 1 per cent by November next year, well down from its current level of 1.75 per cent. Dales is also predicting the dollar could fall to US65¢ by the end of next year.
He'd be the first to say a cash rate of 1 per cent is a big call and if house prices keep rising it might just stop the bank from doing anything. But he's not expecting house prices to keep rising, as steps taken by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to cap the growth of bank lending to property investors looks to be working and the supply of apartments will also play a role in keeping a lid on prices.
"Economics is all about supply and demand but when it comes to housing everyone seems to forget about supply. But it is coming," he says.
It will, however, be inflation that remains the key driver for the Reserve Bank and Dales is forecasting it to remain low for a lot longer than most people expect. Indeed, he thinks it will remain below 2 per cent until 2019.
Fell into economics
Dales has been working at Capital Economics since he joined while still at university. He was just the fourth person employed at the company but now there are 150 on the payroll with offices in London, Toronto, Shanghai, New York and now Sydney.
Their research stands out because the company is independent. It's not aligned to any outside shareholders or linked to a bank or a dealing room and they don't have any investments of their own that they have to talk up or down.
"We've always had clients in Australia and New Zealand, but opening the office in Sydney means we can now talk to them in their own time zone about the big global issues that matter to them," said Dales, who has only been in Australia for just under a year.
Born and bred 15 kilometres outside Birmingham in Britain, he's a keen follower of what he calls "football" and his team is West Bromwich Albion.
Birmingham is also where Dales fell into economics when he was just 15.
"My school had this business studies course that they offered for the first time and it was so popular they only had room for half the class and I, like a few others, got thrown into the economics class instead," he explained.
"But I loved it. It made so much sense to me. Later at uni, when I was forced to do some accounting, I realised that you just had to know the specifics to get the answer and yet with economics you could just think it all through and work out it. That seemed to be more of the real world to me and I do feel lucky that I knew what I wanted to do so young," said Dales.
He worked in Capital Economics' Toronto office for three years but the rest of the time has been spent in the London office where he would cycle to work from Chelsea and take in the Battersea Power Station that overlooks the Rivers Thames in central London, just to remind himself that he was living in one of the biggest cities in the world.
"It's similar here when I ride my bike all the way down Macquarie Street and then turn left when I get to see the Opera House and Harbour Bridge. Britain is an island just like Australia but we don't get to see the ocean like you can here in Sydney. I do find that very invigorating," he says.